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CANADIANS THINK CANADA IS ‘BROKEN’ AMID GLOOMY ECONOMIC NUMBERS

Appeared in the Edmonton Sun, October 9, 2024


Approximately three years have passed since the end of the initial phase of the
COVID pandemic that saw large swathes of the economy shuttered for most of the
2020-2021 period. And it’s almost nine years since the 2015 federal election,
which resulted in a majority government for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. So, it’s
a good time to do a pulse check on Canadians to see how they’re faring and
feeling about the country.
 
Overall, the news isn’t particularly cheerful, on either front.

Dealing first with economic prosperity, the big story is that Canada’s
population has been growing faster than the volume of output produced by the
economy (defined as gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation). This means
the economy has been shrinking on a per-person basis, prompting some analysts to
coin the term “per-person recession” to describe the performance of Canada’s
economy since 2022.

The trend has been stark in the last two years, but it started earlier. The
absolute level of per-person output is smaller today than in 2018 in seven of 10
provinces including Ontario. More importantly, income and earnings growth has
been essentially stagnant for most Canadians over roughly the last decade.
Canada has also fallen further behind the best-performing advanced economies on
productivity, per-person income and real wages.

What about public attitudes? A recent Ipsos survey finds 70 per cent of
Canadians think the country is “broken,” an opinion especially common among
young adults. Older Canadians have a more positive view of things. A Statistics
Canada survey shows a significant drop in the percentage of Canadians reporting
high levels of “life satisfaction.” The same survey shows that 40 per cent of
respondents between the ages of 25 and 54 say it’s difficult to meet their
financial needs.

The shock delivered by the recent bout of high inflation no doubt has
contributed to this gloomy assessment. And it doesn’t help the public mood that
housing has never been less affordable, that crime is on the rise, and that
basic health-care services are harder to access than they were five or 10 years
ago.

Other data paint a more nuanced picture of how Canada is doing. The Organisation
for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)—a collection of mostly rich
countries—publishes a “Better Life Index,” which aims to gauge overall citizen
wellbeing.  In the most recent iteration of the Index, Canada beats the OECD
average on income, employment levels, education attainment, life expectancy at
birth, and environmental quality, among other indicators. Our relative ranking
has slipped in some areas—a worrisome sign—but overall, Canada puts up a decent
score.

Still, stagnant real incomes and an economy that’s expanding more slowly than
the population is not an ideal place to land. To do better, Canada will need at
least a few years of stronger per-person economic growth. This will require a
turnaround in our notably lacklustre productivity record and a sustained pick-up
in business investment. Revisiting the federal government’s ambitious
immigration targets may also be necessary, as Trudeau government ministers have
publicly (albeit somewhat sheepishly) acknowledged.
 
Getting the economic fundamentals right is essential to making progress on most
economic and social indicators. As the OECD notes, “while money may not buy
happiness, it is an important means to achieving higher living standards and
thus greater well-being.”


AUTHOR:

Jock Finlayson
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute


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