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Matt Reynolds

Science
Jul 7, 2023 7:00 AM


WHY PEOPLE STOP USING DRUGS LIKE OZEMPIC

Drugs like semaglutide—better known as Ozempic or Wegovy—could be lifelong
treatments for obesity, but what little data scientists have suggests that
people don't stick with them for long.
Photograph: Douglas Cliff/Getty Images

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Save this storySave

In February 2021, a scientific paper came out that caused a sensation in the
world of obesity research. It detailed the first results from studying weekly
injections of the drug semaglutide—the generic name for Ozempic or Wegovy—to
treat obesity. The paper showed that people taking the drug lost on average 15
percent of their body weight—a level of weight loss practically unheard-of for
an anti-obesity medicine.

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The paper, and the subsequent approval of Wegovy for weight management, kicked
off an unprecedented clamor for this new generation of drugs. Demand for the
injectables is so high that in May 2023, Wegovy manufacturer Novo Nordisk paused
television advertising in order to buy itself time to produce more of the drug.
Semaglutide is also used to treat type 2 diabetes, and in the UK patients have
found it difficult to access the drug as Novo Nordisk struggled to keep up
supply.

As demand for the drugs has risen, some have pointed out that for people to keep
the weight off, they will likely have to stay on these drugs forever. That’s not
surprising—the same is true for other weight loss interventions—but it raises a
potentially vexing problem. The data we have suggests that a significant number
of people stop taking these drugs after relatively short spans. We might have
near-miraculous weight loss drugs, but what happens to the people who can’t stay
on them?



These new drugs are part of a group called GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs).
They work by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and
suppresses appetite by slowing down the rate at which food leaves the stomach.
While using them to treat obesity is pretty novel, they’ve been approved for
type 2 diabetes for a while. The first GLP-1 RA was approved by the US Food and
Drug Administration in 2005. That means we have some decent real-world data
about how long people stay on GLP-1 RAs and the reasons they quit them.

One study looked at GLP-1 RAs prescribed in the UK between 2009 and 2017. Out of
the 589 patients who started taking a GLP-RA, 45 percent stopped taking the drug
within 12 months, and 65 percent within 24 months. The same group of scientists
also looked at people taking GLP-1 RAs in the US across a similar period of
time. That study included a much larger group of diabetes patients but found
that people quit taking the drugs at a similar rate as in the UK. Within 12
months, 47 percent of patients stopped taking their GLP-1 AR; after 24 months
that figure was 70 percent. On average, people in that study spent around 13
months using the drug before they stopped taking it.



Other real-world findings paint a similar picture. About half of Spanish
patients taking a GLP-1 RA had stopped taking the drug after two years—a higher
dropout rate than for other diabetes drugs. In Denmark, around 45 percent of
diabetes patients stopped taking GLP-1 RAs within five years of starting the
therapy, although a quarter of them started again within the following year. In
lots of these studies, the scientists note that people quit these drugs at much
higher rates than they do during clinical trials.

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That isn’t surprising, says John Wilding, an obesity researcher at the
University of Liverpool who led a major study on the use of semaglutide to treat
overweight or obese adults. “Clinical trials tell us about the biology–whether
the drug works—and it’s a very highly controlled situation because that’s the
way the trials are designed,” he says. People don’t usually have to pay for
drugs in clinical trials, and they’re supported with regular check-ins from
research staff.



In the real world, there are all kinds of reasons people stop taking drugs. One
survey of diabetes patients asked them—and their doctors—why they stopped taking
their GLP-1 RA. Patients who quit the drugs cited side effects such as nausea
and diarrhea, disliking having to inject themselves regularly, and
disappointment that the injections didn’t help them lose weight or control their
blood glucose. In the US, almost half of patients who stopped taking a GLP-1 RA
cited high costs as a reason. We know that patients in the US who have higher
insurance copayments are less likely to stick with their diabetes medicine.
“These drugs are wildly expensive, especially the weekly ones,” says William
Polonsky, president of the Behavioural Diabetes Institute in California. The
list price for a monthly dose of Wegovy is almost $1,350, although some insurers
cover at least part of that hefty cost.



If these patterns hold true for the drugs as they are used for weight loss—and
that’s still a big “if” at the moment—then maybe we shouldn’t expect that
everyone who starts taking Wegovy or similar drugs will stay on them forever.
The UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, which decides which
drugs should be available through the National Health Service (NHS), recommends
a two-year cap on how long someone can be prescribed Wegovy for weight loss.
It’s possible, Wilding says, that some people will stop taking the drug after
they’ve lost a certain amount of weight and opt to manage their health through
diet and exercise instead.

We already know that when people stop taking semaglutide, they regain most of
the weight they lost during the treatment. This raises an important question. If
people regain their lost weight, are they still healthier in the long run than
someone who never lost the weight in the first place?

For semaglutide, the short answer is that we don’t know. But there is some
intriguing data that suggests dietary interventions can have lasting benefits
long after they’ve been dropped. In 1986, nearly 440 prediabetic people in the
Chinese city of Da Qing were assigned to a trial in which they were encouraged
to follow a healthier diet, exercise, or a combination of the two for six years.
The control group was asked to continue their lifestyle as normal. Thirty years
later, scientists returned to the people who had taken part in the study and
found that those in the diet and exercise groups had later diabetes onset and
less cardiovascular disease than people in the control group.

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The Da Qing research didn’t study weight loss directly, but it does suggest that
even a relatively short time spent following an intervention might have
long-lasting benefits. Wilding says that people who take a GLP-1 RA for a few
years and then stop might end up healthier than if they’d never taken the drug.
“It may be that you buy some future health. Probably not as much as if you
continued to take it, but nevertheless there may be some residual benefit.”

It could also be the case that as these new weight loss drugs improve, people
stay on them longer. Many of the early GLP-1 ARs required daily injections, but
Wegovy, Ozempic, and Mounjaro are all weekly injections. Drug companies are also
racing to make pill versions of the weight loss drugs, as some patients are put
off by having to inject themselves regularly. In May, Novo Nordisk announced
that a semaglutide pill helped people achieve weight loss levels similar to the
injectable version.

“Convenience drives behavior,” says Polonsky. If manufacturers can make drugs
that are cheaper and easier to administer, then people will likely stay on them
longer. There’s also another reason to think that adherence rates for weight
loss might be higher than for diabetes—people who are using GLP-1 RAs to lose
weight can usually tell quite quickly whether the drug is working for them. That
positive feedback might make them more likely to stick with the drug, even if
they’re struggling through side effects.

This short-term feedback could be the route to long-term health benefits.
Although we know that semaglutide helps people lose weight, there aren’t yet any
big clinical trials to tell us whether this weight loss leads to reductions in
heart disease and stroke—two conditions that are strongly linked to obesity. In
June, a big trial investigating whether semaglutide reduces rates of
cardiovascular disease finally wrapped up after five years and 17,609
participants. When those results are published, they will shed light on whether
these drugs improve people’s long-term health, as well as helping them lose
weight. If the results are positive, it could make demand for these already
sought-after medications even greater.






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Matt Reynolds is a senior writer at WIRED, where he covers climate, food, and
biodiversity. Before that he was a technology journalist at New Scientist
magazine. His first book, The Future of Food: How to Feed the Planet Without
Destroying It, was published in 2021. Reynolds is a graduate of... Read more
Senior writer
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