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INDIA SHOULD LET ANY PARTY RULE IN NEPAL

Wednesday, 21 December 2022 | Navita Srikant
    

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INDIA SHOULD LET ANY PARTY RULE IN NEPAL

Wednesday, 21 December 2022 | Navita Srikant



India is a natural voice of Global South, a long standing partner in the South
Asian neighbourhood

Nepal elections 2022 have delivered a fresh mandate for reinvigorated vision in
the political leadership. Voters sought an alternative to traditional parties
and mixed voices on the Nepal Constitution emerged, especially federalism,
underrepresentation of marginalised communities of Madhes and Tharu, and return
of constitutional monarchy. But there is no saying what the shifting of the
tectonic plates will throw up in years ahead in Nepal.

Important veterans like Sher Bahadur Deuba, KP Oli, Pushpa Kamal Dahal
(‘Prachanda’), Madhav Kumar Nepal and Mahanta Thakur retained their respective
position but there is a parallel emergence of newly minted political leaders and
their cohort, especially Rabi Lamichhane (Rashtriya Swatantra Party), a
firebrand media personality, CK Raut (Janamat Party) who was seeking an
Independent Madhes State once upon a time. He abandoned the secessionist
movement and joined mainstream politics in an agreement with the Oli Government.

The voice of the Tharu community, particularly of the Western Tarai, came out
loud and clear from the wins of the (Unmukti Party), led from jail by Resham
Chaudhary. Another striking feature was that these were ‘Nepali-owned’
elections, even though there might have been some attempts at influencing the
northern or southern neighbour.

Following the elections, however, leaders have reached out to Delhi and Beijing
to lay their claim on the Prime Ministership. Is this not a breach of
sovereignty? It is advisable for the international partners to maintain a low
profile, for past experience has shown that Nepali leaders may make a show of
fealty but eventually they go ahead and do as they please according to national
political exigencies.

Despite the fractured mandate, a return of the ruling coalition (Nepali
Congress, Maoist Centre and others) is likely, unless they decide to change
their minds. But that is hardly likely to please the citizenry because of the
ineffectiveness of the coalition governments of the past two years. Although the
coalition was apparently led by the NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba as nominal head,
actual strings were pulled by the CPN (Maoist Centre) chair Dahal.

If NC prevails in leading the Government, it is imperative that it retains key
ministerial portfolios to ensure governance is in sync for Nepal’s economic
growth. It’s worth noting that KP Oli’s CPN (UML) performed equivalently as the
NC, and the two parties remain the top favourites. Coming slightly behind the NC
in direct elections, the UML got the edge when it came to seats through
proportional representation, which makes up 40 per cent of Parliament.

If a pre-election coalition is maintained, UML would not have the numbers to
form a government. But speculations are rife for the Congress and UML come
together to form Government to provide semblance of political stability.

One can clearly see inhibition on part of Indian stakeholders, as well as the
Indian media generally, not just to see an Oli-led government or even to have
the UML in a coalition with the Congress. This is a myopic lack of pragmatism,
and forgets the fact that it was in the time of the Oli-led Government that key
India-Nepal national initiatives were launched. The party supports the idea of
Indo-Nepal collaboration in areas of shared interest. It is important to
remember that even when India-Nepal relations were strained during the 2015-2017
period, Beijing was not able to leverage in Nepal.

It is important for New Delhi to understand that some of the strained
developments during the Oli Government were contextual, and they cannot be seen
in isolation. While India is understandably worried about Chinese inroads into
Nepal, it needs to remember that India has an upper hand when it comes to
political understanding with Nepal’s leadership and even Beijing recognizes the
depth of political relations between India and Nepal, while China’s main concern
is to limit Tibet-related anti-China activities from Nepali territory, and also
it has historically been willing to accept the special dynamic between Kathmandu
and Delhi.

Nepal was not a priority for China on the whole, until activities of the West,
primarily of the US, grew incongruously. China realises that its and India’s
interests do not impede on each other in Nepal and the latter is hard-wired to
be respectful of the historic relations with China and civilisational relations
with India. Nepal values both neighbours but language, food, culture, customs
and geography naturally and effortlessly bonds Nepal and India.

Will increased US interest and activities in the central Himalaya impact
triangular dynamics between India, Nepal and China is a new subject of
diplomatic inquiry. One set of Indian observers believe that Indian interests
are protected with the growing US presence. But other than irking China and
overlooking Indian interests, one cannot hope much from the growing US
involvement in Nepal. We have seen in the past that the involvement of the US in
the smaller states is not sustained with some sort of fatigue half way through.

India is a natural voice of Global South, a longstanding partner in the South
Asian neighbourhood. New Delhi does not need the helping hand of the United
States on Nepal in any sphere.

The continuous use of ‘civilisational relationship’ to exemplify Nepal-India
relationship is a no-brainer. The other reality is that each sovereign state is
continuously skeptical of the other, but this kind of healthy conflict must be
welcomed as it keeps both neighbours on their toes vis-à-vis expectations and
performance. This is what happens in a family among siblings.

Recently, when Nepali media pointed critically at the Indian Ambassador to Nepal
meeting with senior leaders even before final results were announced, a natural
question popped up: “Does India need to secure her interest?” Certainly not,
neither vertically nor horizontally. One can say this because political
alliances and ideology do not decide the Nepal-India relationship. Irrespective
of ideologies, the political parties of Nepal are aligned with democratic
parties of India, and the strength of this binding needs to be understood before
making incursions to unduly influence government formation.

The anxiety is unwarranted, and New Delhi should stand ready to support any
leading party. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had developed a deep connect with
Nepal during his first visit in 2014. Despite what went on in between, he
remains respected in Nepal both for the spiritual connect between the two
national societies, but also because of Modi’s international stature. There is
therefore a belief that under his leadership India can open up the gateway of
prosperity for Nepal. If India were to eschew, let Nepali politics play out as
it will, and concentrate instead on developing Nepal’s economy and helping
Nepal’s youth look forward with hope to the national future through job
creation, there will be nothing for New Delhi to worry about from the northern
open border for decades on end.

(The author is a financial, geopolitical and security analyst)






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