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Submission: On August 12 via manual from US — Scanned from CA
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CNN VALUES YOUR FEEDBACK 1. How relevant is this ad to you? 2. Did you encounter any technical issues? No Video player was slow to load content Video content never loaded Ad froze or did not finish loading Video content did not start after ad Audio on ad was too loud Other issues Ad never loaded Ad prevented/slowed the page from loading Content moved around while ad loaded Ad was repetitive to ads I've seen previously Other issues Cancel Submit Thank You! Your effort and contribution in providing this feedback is much appreciated. Close Ad Feedback Close icon Business Markets Tech Media Calculators Videos More Markets Tech Media Calculators Videos Watch Listen Live TV Sign in My Account * Settings * Topics You Follow * Sign Out Your CNN account Sign in to your CNN account Sign in My Account * Settings * Topics You Follow * Sign Out Your CNN account Sign in to your CNN account -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Live TV Listen Watch -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Edition US International Arabic Español Edition * US * International * Arabic * Español -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Markets Tech Media Calculators Videos Follow CNN Business * * * -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * World * Africa * Americas * Asia * Australia * China * Europe * India * Middle East * United Kingdom * US Politics * SCOTUS * Congress * Facts First * 2024 Elections * Business * Tech * Media * Calculators * Videos * Markets * Pre-markets * After-Hours * Fear & Greed * Investing * Markets Now * Before the Bell * Nightcap * Opinion * Political Op-Eds * Social Commentary * Health * Life, But Better * Fitness * Food * Sleep * Mindfulness * Relationships * Entertainment * Movies * Television * Celebrity * Tech * Innovate * Foreseeable Future * Mission: Ahead * Work Transformed * Innovative Cities * Style * Arts * Design * Fashion * Architecture * Luxury * Beauty * Video * Travel * Destinations * Food & Drink * Stay * News * Videos * Sports * Football * Tennis * Golf * Motorsport * US Sports * Olympics * Climbing * Esports * Hockey * Watch * Live TV * CNN Fast * Shows A-Z * CNN10 * CNN Max * CNN TV Schedules * Listen * CNN 5 Things * Chasing Life with Dr. Sanjay Gupta * The Assignment with Audie Cornish * One Thing * Tug of War * CNN Political Briefing * The Axe Files * All There Is with Anderson Cooper * All CNN Audio podcasts * Science * Space * Life * Unearthed * Climate * Solutions * Weather * Features * As Equals * Call to Earth * Freedom Project * Impact Your World * Inside Africa * CNN Heroes * Weather * Video * Climate * Ukraine-Russia War * Israel-Hamas War * Paris Olympics * About CNN * Photos * Investigations * CNN Profiles * CNN Leadership * CNN Newsletters * Work for CNN Markets DOW S&P 500 NASDAQ Hot Stocks Fear & Greed Index ----- is driving the US market Latest Market News Chuck E. Cheese targets inflation-weary families with a bargain subscription program Trump Media’s massive bet could fix its biggest problem: It brings in almost no money The era of freeloading is officially over Hot Stocks ----- is driving the US market Something isn't loading properly. Please check back later. Ad Feedback THE US ECONOMY FACES A NEW THREAT Analysis by Matt Egan, CNN 5 minute read Published 5:00 AM EDT, Wed July 10, 2024 Link Copied! Walmart customer using self checkout in North Miami Beach, Florida. Inflation has cooled, but another risk is now confronting the US economy—and the Fed must act soon, economists say. Jeff Greenberg/UIG/Getty Images New York CNN — The biggest danger facing the American economy for years has been inflation. Now, another problem is emerging as a credible threat on the horizon: Unemployment. Just as inflation continues to cool, yellow lights are flashing in the still-strong jobs market. The Federal Reserve must now confront the risk that it’s making a mistake by keeping interest rates too high for too long. Ad Feedback That’s why some economists are pleading with the Fed to ease up its inflation fight—before high interest rates, which it’s used to tame surging prices, grind the US economy into a recession. “It’s time to cut rates,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “Inflation is fading as the primary focus of concern. The balance of risks is slowly tipping towards higher unemployment.” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the labor market is straining under the weight of high borrowing costs. Ad Feedback “The biggest danger is a policy mistake: The Fed keeps rates too high for too long,” Zandi told CNN in a phone interview. “Right now, the Fed is signaling a September cut. I think that’s okay, but if they wait any longer than that, I fear they are going to overdo it.” Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell is acknowledging a significant shift in the risk calculus. “Elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” Powell told lawmakers on Tuesday, pointing to easing inflation and “cooling” in the labor market. ‘THE LABOR MARKET MAY BE TURNING’ To be clear, the jobs market is by no means imploding. Jobs are still being created at a healthy pace — faster than many thought possible just a year ago. Yet just beneath the surface, cracks have begun to emerge. The unemployment rate remains historically low, but it has noticeably crept higher three months in a row — “a sign the labor market may be turning,” according to economists at KPMG. The rising unemployment rate means that it’s getting more competitive for job seekers to get hired. Joe Raedle/Getty Images Related article Americans are suddenly finding it harder to land a job — and keep it Hiring has slowed in leisure and hospitality, a key sector that is powered by consumer spending. The pace of workers quitting their jobs has dropped significantly. So has the rate of workers getting hired. Powell highlighted these changes, telling lawmakers that recent indicators “send a pretty clear signal that labor market conditions have cooled considerably” from two years. “This is no longer an overheated economy,” Powell said. Of course, that’s exactly what the Fed wanted to accomplish when it began its historic rate hiking campaign. The fear in 2022 was that the jobs market was so hot that it would add fuel to white-hot inflation growth and keep prices dangerously high, forcing the Fed to start a recession just to put the inflation fire out. Overheated inflation and a historically over-abundant job market are no longer viewed as major concerns. WAITING TOO LONG? The current risk is that the Fed is injecting inflation-fighting medicine into an economy that no longer needs it. And that could turn a cooling job market into one that’s frozen—leading to job losses. The job market added 206,000 positions in June, according to the latest government figures released Friday. In other words, it’s not too hot, and not too cold—it’s “balanced,” the Fed Chair said on Tuesday. “A balanced labor market with too restrictive rates from the Fed will not remain balanced for long,” Brusuelas said. “That means higher unemployment.” Brusuelas clarified that doesn’t necessarily mean “skyrocketing” unemployment is on the horizon, but a premature recession may be, nonetheless, if the Fed waits too long to cut rates. CUMBERLAND, ME - MAY 9: A nearly full dining room at Rise Pizza & Pub on Thursday, May 9, 2024. Brianna Soukup/Portland Press Herald/Getty Images/File Related article A key part of America’s economy has shifted into reverse In a Monday report, KPMG senior economist Ken Kim noted that the unemployment rate is close to triggering the Sahm Rule, which signals a recession has started when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate increases by 0.5 percentage points or more above the three-month average. Kim also pointed to how the services sector — a key engine of growth for the US economy — is suddenly showing signs of weakness. “No longer is inflation the predominant concern,” Kim wrote. “Equally as worrisome for the Fed should be the potential for a sharper deterioration in the labor market and economic activity. A soft landing is the goal but a hard landing is emerging as a tail risk.” INFLATION ISN’T GONE Of course, the high cost of living remains a major concern for Americans. Although the rate of inflation has slowed sharply from 9% in June 2022, there is a painful snowballing effect from more than two years of sharp price gains. Americans are paying much more for groceries, rent and insurance than before Covid-19. And there are still risks on the inflation front. The war in the Middle East continues, posing a potential threat to energy production in the region. The same is true of the Russia-Ukraine war, where oil refineries deep inside Russia have been hit by drone attacks. The upcoming US election also creates significant uncertainty — and complications. Some mainstream economists are concerned that former President Donald Trump’s economic agenda — tax cuts, immigration crackdown and tariff hikes — would “reignite” inflation. Plus, cutting rates just before the US election could cause the Fed to be “thrown into the political cauldron—a place it doesn’t want to be,” said Zandi, the Moody’s economist. LEARNING FROM THE PAST If the Fed cuts rates prematurely, it could stimulate demand from consumers and businesses. That could boost inflation and make matters worse. Powell and his colleagues face a difficult decision—and they don’t want to repeat mistakes of the past. In the 1970s, the Fed rapidly spiked rates but then lowered them before inflation was defeated. Inflation roared back and forced the Fed to take even more drastic steps. More recently, the Powell-led Fed was slow to the inflation fight, waiting too long to respond to price spikes because officials (and many economists) thought inflation was “transitory,” and would dissipate on its own. “They have PTSD from what happened before,” said Zandi. “They made a mistake in not raising rates fast enough. Now they run the risk of keeping rates too high for too long.” Related Ad Feedback CNN BUSINESS VIDEOS Clipped From Video Video What a huge drop for stocks may signal about U.S. economy 4:37 Aug 5, 2024 CNN Video Why the stock market is freaking out, but you shouldn’t 1:08 Aug 5, 2024 Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images/File Video Uncertainty among Americans grows continuously after weak jobs report 2:54 Aug 3, 2024 Spencer Platt/Getty Images Video US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected. CNN breaks down what that means 1:50 Aug 2, 2024 Ad Feedback Ad Feedback Sign in My Account * Settings * Topics You Follow * Sign Out Your CNN account Sign in to your CNN account -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Live TV Listen Watch -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * World * Africa * Americas * Asia * Australia * China * Europe * India * Middle East * United Kingdom * US Politics * SCOTUS * Congress * Facts First * 2024 Elections * Business * Tech * Media * Calculators * Videos * Markets * Pre-markets * After-Hours * Fear & Greed * Investing * Markets Now * Before the Bell * Nightcap * Opinion * Political Op-Eds * Social Commentary * Health * Life, But Better * Fitness * Food * Sleep * Mindfulness * Relationships * Entertainment * Movies * Television * Celebrity * Tech * Innovate * Foreseeable Future * Mission: Ahead * Work Transformed * Innovative Cities * Style * Arts * Design * Fashion * Architecture * Luxury * Beauty * Video * Travel * Destinations * Food & Drink * Stay * News * Videos * Sports * Football * Tennis * Golf * Motorsport * US Sports * Olympics * Climbing * Esports * Hockey * Watch * Live TV * CNN Fast * Shows A-Z * CNN10 * CNN Max * CNN TV Schedules * Listen * CNN 5 Things * Chasing Life with Dr. Sanjay Gupta * The Assignment with Audie Cornish * One Thing * Tug of War * CNN Political Briefing * The Axe Files * All There Is with Anderson Cooper * All CNN Audio podcasts * Science * Space * Life * Unearthed * Climate * Solutions * Weather * Features * As Equals * Call to Earth * Freedom Project * Impact Your World * Inside Africa * CNN Heroes * Weather * Video * Climate * Ukraine-Russia War * Israel-Hamas War * Paris Olympics * About CNN * Photos * Investigations * CNN Profiles * CNN Leadership * CNN Newsletters * Work for CNN -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Business Watch Listen Live TV Follow CNN Business * * * * Sign in My Account * Settings * Topics You Follow * Sign Out Your CNN account Sign in to your CNN account -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Most stock quote data provided by BATS. 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