edition.cnn.com Open in urlscan Pro
2a04:4e42:800::773  Public Scan

Submitted URL: https://u6854627.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=u001.SAv-2FxBleSc1NUJlRFPp-2FC-2F84LARFPmVVLuzunk7yUf5Y0CCbslTAi2008qhHu-2F0pd-2F8s...
Effective URL: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/10/business/economy-inflation-jobs-fed/index.html
Submission: On August 12 via manual from US — Scanned from CA

Form analysis 3 forms found in the DOM

<form class="ad-feedback__form">
  <div class="ad-feedback__heading">
    <h3 class="ad-feedback__heading__text">CNN values your feedback</h3>
    <div id="ad-feedback__close-icon" class="ad-feedback__heading__close"></div>
  </div>
  <div class="ad-feedback__content-container" data-sentiment="ad">
    <div class="ad-feedback__question-container"> 1. How relevant is this ad to you? </div>
    <div class="ad-feedback__answers-container">
      <div class="ad-feedback__emoji-container">
        <input class="ad-feedback__emoji-radio-input" id="ad-feedback__0-bad" name="ad" type="radio" value="1" aria-label="Bad">
        <label for="ad-feedback__0-bad" class="ad-feedback__emoji-base ad-feedback__emoji-bad">
        </label>
      </div>
      <div class="ad-feedback__emoji-container">
        <input class="ad-feedback__emoji-radio-input" id="ad-feedback__0-not-good" name="ad" type="radio" value="2" aria-label="Not Good">
        <label for="ad-feedback__0-not-good" class="ad-feedback__emoji-base ad-feedback__emoji-not-good">
        </label>
      </div>
      <div class="ad-feedback__emoji-container">
        <input class="ad-feedback__emoji-radio-input" id="ad-feedback__0-okay" name="ad" type="radio" value="3" aria-label="Okay">
        <label for="ad-feedback__0-okay" class="ad-feedback__emoji-base ad-feedback__emoji-okay">
        </label>
      </div>
      <div class="ad-feedback__emoji-container">
        <input class="ad-feedback__emoji-radio-input" id="ad-feedback__0-good" name="ad" type="radio" value="4" aria-label="Good">
        <label for="ad-feedback__0-good" class="ad-feedback__emoji-base ad-feedback__emoji-good">
        </label>
      </div>
      <div class="ad-feedback__emoji-container">
        <input class="ad-feedback__emoji-radio-input" id="ad-feedback__0-great" name="ad" type="radio" value="5" aria-label="Great">
        <label for="ad-feedback__0-great" class="ad-feedback__emoji-base ad-feedback__emoji-great">
        </label>
      </div>
    </div>
  </div>
  <div class="ad-feedback__content-container">
    <div class="ad-feedback__question-container"> 2. Did you encounter any technical issues? </div>
    <div class="ad-feedback__technical-issues-checkbox-container">
      <label class="switch">
        <input id="ad-feedback__technical-issues-checkbox" class="ad-feedback__technical-issues-slider" type="checkbox" name="didEncounterIssues" aria-label="Toggle Button">
        <span class="slider round"></span>
      </label>
      <span class="ad-feedback__technical-issues-checkbox-label">No</span>
    </div>
  </div>
  <div class="ad-feedback__technical-issues-container" style="display:none">
    <div class="ad-feedback__content-container video_issues issues-checkboxes-container" style="display: none">
      <label class="ad-feedback__checkbox-container"> Video player was slow to load content <input class="ad-feedback__checkbox__input video_issue" type="checkbox" value="Video player was slow to load content" name="issues">
        <span class="ad-feedback__checkmark"></span>
      </label>
      <label class="ad-feedback__checkbox-container"> Video content never loaded <input class="ad-feedback__checkbox__input video_issue" type="checkbox" value="Video content never loaded" name="issues">
        <span class="ad-feedback__checkmark"></span>
      </label>
      <label class="ad-feedback__checkbox-container"> Ad froze or did not finish loading <input class="ad-feedback__checkbox__input video_issue" type="checkbox" value="Ad froze or did not finish loading" name="issues">
        <span class="ad-feedback__checkmark"></span>
      </label>
      <label class="ad-feedback__checkbox-container"> Video content did not start after ad <input class="ad-feedback__checkbox__input video_issue" type="checkbox" value="Video content did not start after ad" name="issues">
        <span class="ad-feedback__checkmark"></span>
      </label>
      <label class="ad-feedback__checkbox-container"> Audio on ad was too loud <input class="ad-feedback__checkbox__input video_issue" type="checkbox" value="Audio on ad was too loud" name="issues">
        <span class="ad-feedback__checkmark"></span>
      </label>
      <label class="ad-feedback__checkbox-container"> Other issues <input class="ad-feedback__checkbox__input video_issue" type="checkbox" value="Other issues" name="issues">
        <span class="ad-feedback__checkmark"></span>
      </label>
    </div>
    <div class="ad-feedback__content-container display_ad_issues issues-checkboxes-container" style="display: none">
      <label class="ad-feedback__checkbox-container"> Ad never loaded <input class="ad-feedback__checkbox__input display_ad_issue" type="checkbox" value="Ad never loaded" name="issues">
        <span class="ad-feedback__checkmark"></span>
      </label>
      <label class="ad-feedback__checkbox-container"> Ad prevented/slowed the page from loading <input class="ad-feedback__checkbox__input display_ad_issue" type="checkbox" value="Ad prevented/slowed the page from loading" name="issues">
        <span class="ad-feedback__checkmark"></span>
      </label>
      <label class="ad-feedback__checkbox-container"> Content moved around while ad loaded <input class="ad-feedback__checkbox__input display_ad_issue" type="checkbox" value="Content moved around while ad loaded" name="issues">
        <span class="ad-feedback__checkmark"></span>
      </label>
      <label class="ad-feedback__checkbox-container"> Ad was repetitive to ads I've seen previously <input class="ad-feedback__checkbox__input display_ad_issue" type="checkbox" value="Ad was repetitive to ads I've seen previously" name="issues">
        <span class="ad-feedback__checkmark"></span>
      </label>
      <label class="ad-feedback__checkbox-container"> Other issues <input class="ad-feedback__checkbox__input display_ad_issue" type="checkbox" value="Other issues" name="issues">
        <span class="ad-feedback__checkmark"></span>
      </label>
    </div>
    <div class="ad-feedback__content-container">
      <textarea rows="5" class="ad-feedback__comment" maxlength="1000" name="comment"></textarea>
      <div class="ad-feedback__comment-error-msg"></div>
    </div>
  </div>
  <div class="ad-feedback__content-container">
    <div class="ad-feedback__actions">
      <button type="button" id="ad-feedback__cancel" class="ad-feedback__cancel button"> Cancel </button>
      <button type="submit" id="ad-feedback__submit" class="ad-feedback__submit button" disabled=""> Submit </button>
    </div>
  </div>
</form>

Name: q https://www.cnn.com/search

<form action="https://www.cnn.com/search" name="q" class="search-bar__form" role="search">
  <input placeholder="Search CNN..." aria-label="Search" class="search-bar__input" type="text" autocomplete="off" name="q" data-analytics-prop-click-action="search-query-edit">
  <button type="submit" class="search-bar__submit" title="Submit" data-analytics-prop-click-action="search-query-submit">
  </button>
</form>

Name: q https://www.cnn.com/search

<form action="https://www.cnn.com/search" name="q" class="search-bar__form" role="search">
  <input placeholder="Search CNN..." aria-label="Search" class="search-bar__input" type="text" autocomplete="off" name="q" data-analytics-prop-click-action="search-query-edit">
  <button type="submit" class="search-bar__submit" title="Submit" data-analytics-prop-click-action="search-query-submit">
  </button>
</form>

Text Content

CNN VALUES YOUR FEEDBACK


1. How relevant is this ad to you?

2. Did you encounter any technical issues?
No
Video player was slow to load content Video content never loaded Ad froze or did
not finish loading Video content did not start after ad Audio on ad was too loud
Other issues
Ad never loaded Ad prevented/slowed the page from loading Content moved around
while ad loaded Ad was repetitive to ads I've seen previously Other issues

Cancel Submit
Thank You!
Your effort and contribution in providing this feedback is much appreciated.
Close

Ad Feedback
Close icon
Business
Markets
Tech
Media
Calculators
Videos
More
Markets Tech Media Calculators Videos
Watch Listen Live TV
Sign in
My Account
 * Settings
 * Topics You Follow
 * Sign Out

Your CNN account Sign in to your CNN account
Sign in
My Account
 * Settings
 * Topics You Follow
 * Sign Out

Your CNN account Sign in to your CNN account

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Live TV Listen Watch

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Edition
US
International
Arabic
Español
Edition
 * US
 * International
 * Arabic
 * Español

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Markets
Tech
Media
Calculators
Videos
Follow CNN Business
 * 
 * 
 * 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 * World
   * Africa
   * Americas
   * Asia
   * Australia
   * China
   * Europe
   * India
   * Middle East
   * United Kingdom
 * US Politics
   * SCOTUS
   * Congress
   * Facts First
   * 2024 Elections
 * Business
   * Tech
   * Media
   * Calculators
   * Videos
 * Markets
   * Pre-markets
   * After-Hours
   * Fear & Greed
   * Investing
   * Markets Now
   * Before the Bell
   * Nightcap
 * Opinion
   * Political Op-Eds
   * Social Commentary
 * Health
   * Life, But Better
   * Fitness
   * Food
   * Sleep
   * Mindfulness
   * Relationships
 * Entertainment
   * Movies
   * Television
   * Celebrity
 * Tech
   * Innovate
   * Foreseeable Future
   * Mission: Ahead
   * Work Transformed
   * Innovative Cities
 * Style
   * Arts
   * Design
   * Fashion
   * Architecture
   * Luxury
   * Beauty
   * Video
 * Travel
   * Destinations
   * Food & Drink
   * Stay
   * News
   * Videos
 * Sports
   * Football
   * Tennis
   * Golf
   * Motorsport
   * US Sports
   * Olympics
   * Climbing
   * Esports
   * Hockey
 * Watch
   * Live TV
   * CNN Fast
   * Shows A-Z
   * CNN10
   * CNN Max
   * CNN TV Schedules
 * Listen
   * CNN 5 Things
   * Chasing Life with Dr. Sanjay Gupta
   * The Assignment with Audie Cornish
   * One Thing
   * Tug of War
   * CNN Political Briefing
   * The Axe Files
   * All There Is with Anderson Cooper
   * All CNN Audio podcasts
 * Science
   * Space
   * Life
   * Unearthed
 * Climate
   * Solutions
   * Weather
 * Features
   * As Equals
   * Call to Earth
   * Freedom Project
   * Impact Your World
   * Inside Africa
   * CNN Heroes
 * Weather
   * Video
   * Climate
 * Ukraine-Russia War
 * Israel-Hamas War
 * Paris Olympics
 * About CNN
   * Photos
   * Investigations
   * CNN Profiles
   * CNN Leadership
   * CNN Newsletters
   * Work for CNN

Markets

DOW
S&P 500
NASDAQ

Hot Stocks



Fear & Greed Index


----- is driving the US market

Latest Market News

Chuck E. Cheese targets inflation-weary families with a bargain subscription
program
Trump Media’s massive bet could fix its biggest problem: It brings in almost no
money
The era of freeloading is officially over

Hot Stocks


----- is driving the US market
Something isn't loading properly. Please check back later.
Ad Feedback



THE US ECONOMY FACES A NEW THREAT

Analysis by Matt Egan, CNN
5 minute read
Published 5:00 AM EDT, Wed July 10, 2024
Link Copied!
Walmart customer using self checkout in North Miami Beach, Florida. Inflation
has cooled, but another risk is now confronting the US economy—and the Fed must
act soon, economists say.
Jeff Greenberg/UIG/Getty Images
New York CNN  — 

The biggest danger facing the American economy for years has been inflation.

Now, another problem is emerging as a credible threat on the horizon:
Unemployment.

Just as inflation continues to cool, yellow lights are flashing in the
still-strong jobs market. The Federal Reserve must now confront the risk that
it’s making a mistake by keeping interest rates too high for too long.

Ad Feedback

That’s why some economists are pleading with the Fed to ease up its inflation
fight—before high interest rates, which it’s used to tame surging prices, grind
the US economy into a recession.

“It’s time to cut rates,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “Inflation
is fading as the primary focus of concern. The balance of risks is slowly
tipping towards higher unemployment.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the labor market is
straining under the weight of high borrowing costs.

Ad Feedback

“The biggest danger is a policy mistake: The Fed keeps rates too high for too
long,” Zandi told CNN in a phone interview. “Right now, the Fed is signaling a
September cut. I think that’s okay, but if they wait any longer than that, I
fear they are going to overdo it.”

Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell is acknowledging a significant shift in the risk
calculus.

“Elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” Powell told lawmakers on
Tuesday, pointing to easing inflation and “cooling” in the labor market.


‘THE LABOR MARKET MAY BE TURNING’

To be clear, the jobs market is by no means imploding.

Jobs are still being created at a healthy pace — faster than many thought
possible just a year ago.

Yet just beneath the surface, cracks have begun to emerge.

The unemployment rate remains historically low, but it has noticeably crept
higher three months in a row — “a sign the labor market may be turning,”
according to economists at KPMG.

The rising unemployment rate means that it’s getting more competitive for job
seekers to get hired.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Related article Americans are suddenly finding it harder to land a job — and
keep it

Hiring has slowed in leisure and hospitality, a key sector that is powered by
consumer spending. The pace of workers quitting their jobs has dropped
significantly. So has the rate of workers getting hired.

Powell highlighted these changes, telling lawmakers that recent indicators “send
a pretty clear signal that labor market conditions have cooled considerably”
from two years.

“This is no longer an overheated economy,” Powell said.

Of course, that’s exactly what the Fed wanted to accomplish when it began its
historic rate hiking campaign.

The fear in 2022 was that the jobs market was so hot that it would add fuel to
white-hot inflation growth and keep prices dangerously high, forcing the Fed to
start a recession just to put the inflation fire out.

Overheated inflation and a historically over-abundant job market are no longer
viewed as major concerns.


WAITING TOO LONG?

The current risk is that the Fed is injecting inflation-fighting medicine into
an economy that no longer needs it. And that could turn a cooling job market
into one that’s frozen—leading to job losses.

The job market added 206,000 positions in June, according to the latest
government figures released Friday. In other words, it’s not too hot, and not
too cold—it’s “balanced,” the Fed Chair said on Tuesday.

“A balanced labor market with too restrictive rates from the Fed will not remain
balanced for long,” Brusuelas said. “That means higher unemployment.”

Brusuelas clarified that doesn’t necessarily mean “skyrocketing” unemployment is
on the horizon, but a premature recession may be, nonetheless, if the Fed waits
too long to cut rates.

CUMBERLAND, ME - MAY 9: A nearly full dining room at Rise Pizza & Pub on
Thursday, May 9, 2024.
Brianna Soukup/Portland Press Herald/Getty Images/File

Related article A key part of America’s economy has shifted into reverse

In a Monday report, KPMG senior economist Ken Kim noted that the unemployment
rate is close to triggering the Sahm Rule, which signals a recession has started
when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate increases by 0.5
percentage points or more above the three-month average.

Kim also pointed to how the services sector — a key engine of growth for the US
economy — is suddenly showing signs of weakness.

“No longer is inflation the predominant concern,” Kim wrote. “Equally as
worrisome for the Fed should be the potential for a sharper deterioration in the
labor market and economic activity. A soft landing is the goal but a hard
landing is emerging as a tail risk.”


INFLATION ISN’T GONE

Of course, the high cost of living remains a major concern for Americans.

Although the rate of inflation has slowed sharply from 9% in June 2022, there is
a painful snowballing effect from more than two years of sharp price gains.
Americans are paying much more for groceries, rent and insurance than before
Covid-19.

And there are still risks on the inflation front.

The war in the Middle East continues, posing a potential threat to energy
production in the region. The same is true of the Russia-Ukraine war, where oil
refineries deep inside Russia have been hit by drone attacks.

The upcoming US election also creates significant uncertainty — and
complications.

Some mainstream economists are concerned that former President Donald Trump’s
economic agenda — tax cuts, immigration crackdown and tariff hikes — would
“reignite” inflation.

Plus, cutting rates just before the US election could cause the Fed to be
“thrown into the political cauldron—a place it doesn’t want to be,” said Zandi,
the Moody’s economist.


LEARNING FROM THE PAST

If the Fed cuts rates prematurely, it could stimulate demand from consumers and
businesses. That could boost inflation and make matters worse.

Powell and his colleagues face a difficult decision—and they don’t want to
repeat mistakes of the past.

In the 1970s, the Fed rapidly spiked rates but then lowered them before
inflation was defeated. Inflation roared back and forced the Fed to take even
more drastic steps.

More recently, the Powell-led Fed was slow to the inflation fight, waiting too
long to respond to price spikes because officials (and many economists) thought
inflation was “transitory,” and would dissipate on its own.

“They have PTSD from what happened before,” said Zandi. “They made a mistake in
not raising rates fast enough. Now they run the risk of keeping rates too high
for too long.”


Related





Ad Feedback


CNN BUSINESS VIDEOS

Clipped From Video
Video What a huge drop for stocks may signal about U.S. economy 4:37
Aug 5, 2024
CNN
Video Why the stock market is freaking out, but you shouldn’t 1:08
Aug 5, 2024
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images/File
Video Uncertainty among Americans grows continuously after weak jobs report 2:54
Aug 3, 2024
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Video US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected. CNN breaks down what that
means 1:50
Aug 2, 2024
Ad Feedback

Ad Feedback

Sign in
My Account
 * Settings
 * Topics You Follow
 * Sign Out

Your CNN account Sign in to your CNN account

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Live TV Listen Watch

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 * World
   * Africa
   * Americas
   * Asia
   * Australia
   * China
   * Europe
   * India
   * Middle East
   * United Kingdom
 * US Politics
   * SCOTUS
   * Congress
   * Facts First
   * 2024 Elections
 * Business
   * Tech
   * Media
   * Calculators
   * Videos
 * Markets
   * Pre-markets
   * After-Hours
   * Fear & Greed
   * Investing
   * Markets Now
   * Before the Bell
   * Nightcap
 * Opinion
   * Political Op-Eds
   * Social Commentary
 * Health
   * Life, But Better
   * Fitness
   * Food
   * Sleep
   * Mindfulness
   * Relationships
 * Entertainment
   * Movies
   * Television
   * Celebrity
 * Tech
   * Innovate
   * Foreseeable Future
   * Mission: Ahead
   * Work Transformed
   * Innovative Cities
 * Style
   * Arts
   * Design
   * Fashion
   * Architecture
   * Luxury
   * Beauty
   * Video
 * Travel
   * Destinations
   * Food & Drink
   * Stay
   * News
   * Videos
 * Sports
   * Football
   * Tennis
   * Golf
   * Motorsport
   * US Sports
   * Olympics
   * Climbing
   * Esports
   * Hockey
 * Watch
   * Live TV
   * CNN Fast
   * Shows A-Z
   * CNN10
   * CNN Max
   * CNN TV Schedules
 * Listen
   * CNN 5 Things
   * Chasing Life with Dr. Sanjay Gupta
   * The Assignment with Audie Cornish
   * One Thing
   * Tug of War
   * CNN Political Briefing
   * The Axe Files
   * All There Is with Anderson Cooper
   * All CNN Audio podcasts
 * Science
   * Space
   * Life
   * Unearthed
 * Climate
   * Solutions
   * Weather
 * Features
   * As Equals
   * Call to Earth
   * Freedom Project
   * Impact Your World
   * Inside Africa
   * CNN Heroes
 * Weather
   * Video
   * Climate
 * Ukraine-Russia War
 * Israel-Hamas War
 * Paris Olympics
 * About CNN
   * Photos
   * Investigations
   * CNN Profiles
   * CNN Leadership
   * CNN Newsletters
   * Work for CNN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Business
Watch Listen Live TV

Follow CNN Business
 * 
 * 
 * 
 * 

Sign in
My Account
 * Settings
 * Topics You Follow
 * Sign Out

Your CNN account Sign in to your CNN account

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. US market indices are shown in real
time, except for the S&P 500 which is refreshed every two minutes. All times are
ET. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. Chicago
Mercantile: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded
indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI
Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use
to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor’s and S&P are registered trademarks of
Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark
of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded
indices Copyright S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates. Fair value
provided by IndexArb.com. Market holidays and trading hours provided by Copp
Clark Limited.

Terms of Use Privacy Policy Cookie Settings Ad Choices Accessibility & CC About
Newsletters Transcripts

© 2024 Cable News Network. A Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All Rights
Reserved.
CNN Sans ™ & © 2016 Cable News Network.