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CO21166 | US Global Ransomware Summit: More Needs to be Done
Gil Baram
15 November 2021
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RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate,
policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The
authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU. These commentaries may be
reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due recognition to the author(s)
and RSIS. Please email to Mr Yang Razali Kassim, Editor RSIS Commentary at
RSISPublications@ntu.edu.sg.
SYNOPSIS
The US Justice Department’s arrest of several affiliates of the Russian-speaking
REvil ransomware group comes a month after Washington hosted a virtual
international summit on ransomware attacks. The decision to leave Russia out of
the summit will inevitably limit the effectiveness of the operation.
Source: Pixabay
COMMENTARY
ON 8 NOVEMBER 2021, the US Justice Department announced the arrest of several
members of the Russian-speaking REvil ransomware group, in a large-scale
operation involving US allies in Europe and around the globe. The REvil group,
who have since been charged, have been deploying ransomware attacks against
American targets including the software provider Kaseya in July 2021.
Furthermore, the State Department added REvil to a bounty programme that offers
up to US$10 million for information on the REvil leaders.
These efforts followed the two-day virtual international summit on ransomware
hosted by the Biden administration on 13-14 October. This summit included 30
countries and was a decisive step towards building a coalition against
ransomware attacks. It was acknowledged by all countries that ransomware posed a
global and national security threat. Russia ─ as well as China, Iran, and North
Korea ─ was not invited.
FROM PETTY CRIME TO GLOBAL CRIMINAL ENTERPRISES
The summit prompted some governments to state their positions on state-sponsored
ransomware. Australia, the Netherlands and United Kingdom began signalling a
more aggressive, military, and intelligence agency-backed response to the
ransomware threat.
Lindy Cameron, head of the British National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) said:
“In addition to the direct cyber security threats that the Russian state poses,
we […] assess that cyber criminals based in Russia and neighbouring countries
are responsible for most of the devastating ransomware attacks against UK
targets.”
On average there is a new ransomware attack every 11 seconds, and the losses to
organisations from ransomware attacks are projected to reach $20 billion over
the course of 2021. According to the White House, ransomware payments rose to
more than $400 million globally last year.
COVID-19 increased these numbers, as many organisations started operating
remotely, making themselves even more vulnerable. In fact, ransomware has
existed for several decades and is therefore not new. The problem has been
regarded for a long time as “e-crime”, which primarily affects the private
sector, and was not viewed as a security issue.
The ransomware threat has, however, evolved from a “petty crime to a major
economic windfall for global criminal enterprises”. The rise of cryptocurrencies
makes it difficult for funds to be traced as these can be transferred
electronically without the assistance of other institutions regulated by
governments. This has contributed to the rise of ransomware attacks.
GLOBAL COOPERATION ON CYBER ISSUES: LIMITED SUCCESS
The growing international attention on ransomware and its treatment as a
national security threat have changed how countries respond to this new
challenge. However, global cooperation on cyber issues has so far achieved
limited success because of two reasons: Firstly, it has been done without the
cooperation of Russia and China. Secondly, deterrence in cyberspace generally
does not achieve its goal in the face of actors with different values and
operating methods.
Past international efforts to promote global initiatives on agreed behaviour in
cyberspace ─ like the UN GGE (Group of Governmental Experts) ─ suffered from
disagreements among the nation-states. The main ones are largely between the US
and Russia as well as China regarding the meaning of sovereignty in cyberspace
and its implications for improving global cyber stability.
This year, the UN GGE had reached agreements while the UN Open-Ended Working
Group (OEWG) achieved some non-binding understandings on ways to advance peace
and security in cyberspace. The OEWG includes representatives from multiple
countries and stakeholders.
An international summit that did not include Russia and China (among others) is
unlikely to lead to actionable results that reduce the severity and intensity of
global ransomware attacks. In May 2021 President Biden warned Moscow about the
need to “take decisive action” against them. The Justice Department, he said,
would step up prosecutions of ransomware hackers and the government will “pursue
a measure to disrupt their ability to operate”.
RUSSIA’S LACK OF ACTION
Despite this warning, there has been little or no change in the Russian stance
that would indicate Moscow’s acceptance of the presence of ransomware attacks by
Russia-affiliated criminal groups. And despite repeated requests from the Biden
administration, there is no evidence that Russia has taken action to deal with
ransomware criminals operating within its borders and it is practically serving
as a safe haven for cyber criminals.
The US has already sanctioned Russian individuals for committing cyberattacks
but that did not seem to affect Russia’s support for them.
Experts suggest that the US should act against cyber criminals the same way it
acted against ISIS. Here the situation might pose some complications as these
cyber criminals are operating within the borders of sovereign states.
But there might be some room for optimism from the latest round of strategic
dialogue between the US and Russia that took place at the end of September.
According to Russian news reports, Moscow and Washington have resumed some
cooperation in cyber areas that have been frozen for many years.
PROGRESS AND WAY FORWARD
There has been substantial progress reached in three key areas:
• At the end of September, The Kremlin and the White House resumed regular
cybersecurity expert meetings.
• Both countries restored cooperation within the framework of the 1999 Mutual
Legal Assistance in Criminal Cases Treaty. As a result, the US provided key
information to enable the prosecution of several international cybercrime groups
such as Evil Corp, REvil, and TrickBot. Specifically, Russia informed the US
that it already started prosecuting hackers using malware from one of those
three groups, and Moscow expressed willingness to continue collaborating on this
track.
• The US and Russian cyber incident response centres also reestablished regular
contacts and resumed information exchange on cyberattacks.
Going forward, the US ransomware summit was an important first step; it seems
that many countries today perceive ransomware as a security threat and one that
calls for a joint global action ─ as the recent operation and arrests show.
However, as long as Russia keeps providing safe haven for cyber criminals this
activity will not be resolved. The US should reach out to Russia as well as
other nations and lead international effort in a more inclusive way if it wants
to reach a global and long-lasting solution.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Gil Baram is a Fulbright Cybersecurity post-doctoral fellow, Center for
International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) Stanford University, and an
Adjunct Research Fellow at the Centre of Excellence for National Security,
(CENS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang
Technological University (NTU), Singapore.
Categories: Commentaries / Country and Region Studies / Cybersecurity,
Biosecurity and Nuclear Safety / International Political Economy / International
Politics and Security / Non-Traditional Security / Technology and Future Issues
Last updated on 15/11/2021
RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate,
policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The
authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU. These commentaries may be
reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due recognition to the author(s)
and RSIS. Please email to Mr Yang Razali Kassim, Editor RSIS Commentary at
RSISPublications@ntu.edu.sg.
SYNOPSIS
The US Justice Department’s arrest of several affiliates of the Russian-speaking
REvil ransomware group comes a month after Washington hosted a virtual
international summit on ransomware attacks. The decision to leave Russia out of
the summit will inevitably limit the effectiveness of the operation.
Source: Pixabay
COMMENTARY
ON 8 NOVEMBER 2021, the US Justice Department announced the arrest of several
members of the Russian-speaking REvil ransomware group, in a large-scale
operation involving US allies in Europe and around the globe. The REvil group,
who have since been charged, have been deploying ransomware attacks against
American targets including the software provider Kaseya in July 2021.
Furthermore, the State Department added REvil to a bounty programme that offers
up to US$10 million for information on the REvil leaders.
These efforts followed the two-day virtual international summit on ransomware
hosted by the Biden administration on 13-14 October. This summit included 30
countries and was a decisive step towards building a coalition against
ransomware attacks. It was acknowledged by all countries that ransomware posed a
global and national security threat. Russia ─ as well as China, Iran, and North
Korea ─ was not invited.
FROM PETTY CRIME TO GLOBAL CRIMINAL ENTERPRISES
The summit prompted some governments to state their positions on state-sponsored
ransomware. Australia, the Netherlands and United Kingdom began signalling a
more aggressive, military, and intelligence agency-backed response to the
ransomware threat.
Lindy Cameron, head of the British National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) said:
“In addition to the direct cyber security threats that the Russian state poses,
we […] assess that cyber criminals based in Russia and neighbouring countries
are responsible for most of the devastating ransomware attacks against UK
targets.”
On average there is a new ransomware attack every 11 seconds, and the losses to
organisations from ransomware attacks are projected to reach $20 billion over
the course of 2021. According to the White House, ransomware payments rose to
more than $400 million globally last year.
COVID-19 increased these numbers, as many organisations started operating
remotely, making themselves even more vulnerable. In fact, ransomware has
existed for several decades and is therefore not new. The problem has been
regarded for a long time as “e-crime”, which primarily affects the private
sector, and was not viewed as a security issue.
The ransomware threat has, however, evolved from a “petty crime to a major
economic windfall for global criminal enterprises”. The rise of cryptocurrencies
makes it difficult for funds to be traced as these can be transferred
electronically without the assistance of other institutions regulated by
governments. This has contributed to the rise of ransomware attacks.
GLOBAL COOPERATION ON CYBER ISSUES: LIMITED SUCCESS
The growing international attention on ransomware and its treatment as a
national security threat have changed how countries respond to this new
challenge. However, global cooperation on cyber issues has so far achieved
limited success because of two reasons: Firstly, it has been done without the
cooperation of Russia and China. Secondly, deterrence in cyberspace generally
does not achieve its goal in the face of actors with different values and
operating methods.
Past international efforts to promote global initiatives on agreed behaviour in
cyberspace ─ like the UN GGE (Group of Governmental Experts) ─ suffered from
disagreements among the nation-states. The main ones are largely between the US
and Russia as well as China regarding the meaning of sovereignty in cyberspace
and its implications for improving global cyber stability.
This year, the UN GGE had reached agreements while the UN Open-Ended Working
Group (OEWG) achieved some non-binding understandings on ways to advance peace
and security in cyberspace. The OEWG includes representatives from multiple
countries and stakeholders.
An international summit that did not include Russia and China (among others) is
unlikely to lead to actionable results that reduce the severity and intensity of
global ransomware attacks. In May 2021 President Biden warned Moscow about the
need to “take decisive action” against them. The Justice Department, he said,
would step up prosecutions of ransomware hackers and the government will “pursue
a measure to disrupt their ability to operate”.
RUSSIA’S LACK OF ACTION
Despite this warning, there has been little or no change in the Russian stance
that would indicate Moscow’s acceptance of the presence of ransomware attacks by
Russia-affiliated criminal groups. And despite repeated requests from the Biden
administration, there is no evidence that Russia has taken action to deal with
ransomware criminals operating within its borders and it is practically serving
as a safe haven for cyber criminals.
The US has already sanctioned Russian individuals for committing cyberattacks
but that did not seem to affect Russia’s support for them.
Experts suggest that the US should act against cyber criminals the same way it
acted against ISIS. Here the situation might pose some complications as these
cyber criminals are operating within the borders of sovereign states.
But there might be some room for optimism from the latest round of strategic
dialogue between the US and Russia that took place at the end of September.
According to Russian news reports, Moscow and Washington have resumed some
cooperation in cyber areas that have been frozen for many years.
PROGRESS AND WAY FORWARD
There has been substantial progress reached in three key areas:
• At the end of September, The Kremlin and the White House resumed regular
cybersecurity expert meetings.
• Both countries restored cooperation within the framework of the 1999 Mutual
Legal Assistance in Criminal Cases Treaty. As a result, the US provided key
information to enable the prosecution of several international cybercrime groups
such as Evil Corp, REvil, and TrickBot. Specifically, Russia informed the US
that it already started prosecuting hackers using malware from one of those
three groups, and Moscow expressed willingness to continue collaborating on this
track.
• The US and Russian cyber incident response centres also reestablished regular
contacts and resumed information exchange on cyberattacks.
Going forward, the US ransomware summit was an important first step; it seems
that many countries today perceive ransomware as a security threat and one that
calls for a joint global action ─ as the recent operation and arrests show.
However, as long as Russia keeps providing safe haven for cyber criminals this
activity will not be resolved. The US should reach out to Russia as well as
other nations and lead international effort in a more inclusive way if it wants
to reach a global and long-lasting solution.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Gil Baram is a Fulbright Cybersecurity post-doctoral fellow, Center for
International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) Stanford University, and an
Adjunct Research Fellow at the Centre of Excellence for National Security,
(CENS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang
Technological University (NTU), Singapore.
Categories: Commentaries / Country and Region Studies / Cybersecurity,
Biosecurity and Nuclear Safety / International Political Economy / International
Politics and Security / Non-Traditional Security / Technology and Future Issues
Last updated on 15/11/2021
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