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UNCERTAINTY CLOUDS PROSPECTS FOR RECOVERY UNCERTAINTY CLOUDS PROSPECTS FOR
RECOVERY UNCERTAINTY CLOUDS PROSPECTS FOR RECOVERY

KPMG Global Economic Outlook H1' 2022 report
KPMG Global Economic Outlook H1' 2022 report

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 * Insights ›
 * Uncertainty clouds prospects for recovery



An uneasy sense of deja vu is gripping the ASEAN economy.

Just as economies in the region seemed on track for recovery at the end of 2021,
the Omicron variant and Russia-Ukraine war broke out — sending another wave of
tremors through the global economy.

In Asia, trade is experiencing a one-two punch. First, from the uncertainty of
shipping caused by COVID-19 and from current supply chain disruptions triggered
by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Key shortages in neon and steel — essential in the production of semiconductor
chips and cars — have placed Asia’s manufacturing giants under pressure.
Meanwhile, countries like Indonesia and the Philippines which rely on wheat
imports from Russia and Ukraine are expected to see a surge in food prices.

Asia is not alone.

The war has significantly dampened global growth prospects as inflationary
pressures intensify, triggered by supply chain disruptions and rising commodity
prices. Geopolitical uncertainty will continue to stunt production and trade
growth, while market volatility is expected to worsen with central banks
increasing interest rates to combat record-high inflation.

This is expected to have a spillover effect on global GDP growth, which is
projected to range between 3.3% to 4% this year, and between 2.5% to 3.2% in
2023 — compared to 5.7% in 2021 — depending on how the crisis unfolds. Global
inflation could also average between 4.5% to 7.7% this year, and between 2.9%
and 4.3% in 2023.

These were key findings from the KPMG Global Economic Outlook H1' 2022 report,
which highlights social and fiscal issues that businesses will likely face in
the short to mid-term. The report brings together the expertise of our global
organisation’s economists who represent 17 countries across three major regions.


BALANCING COSTS WITH COMPETITIVENESS

“Many ASEAN countries, including Singapore, have signalled their intent to
accelerate economic recovery as they move towards an endemic COVID-19 phase.
However, as KPMG’s 2022 Global Economic Outlook report has indicated, growth
will likely be tempered due to immediate challenges such as the impact of the
Russia-Ukraine conflict, higher commodity prices, the latest Omicron wave in
China and rising global interest rates.

“Meanwhile, inflation rates are trending upwards across the ASEAN region, though
they remain relatively low by global standards. An exception is Singapore, with
inflation currently at a nine-year high of 4%. All eyes will be on the Singapore
Government’s delicate dance in tackling the rising costs for households and
businesses while ensuring that the economy remains competitive.”

Paul Kent 
Partner, Advisory 
KPMG in Singapore 


GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK: WADING IN CHOPPY WATERS

From supply chain issues to shortages in resources like steel and natural gas,
the conflict in Ukraine has severely undermined trade and production routes
resulting in an upheaval of key industries. As the war worsens, so does the
global economic outlook.

Here are three key scenarios that could occur, based on our analysis, depending
on how the crisis evolves. The scenarios, developed by KPMG, examine the
prospects for the world economy. The cut-off point for all forecasts was 25
March 2022.


GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK H1'2022

READ OUR REPORT


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Our main scenario assumes that world oil prices will be US$30 higher than their
path prior to the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, while gas prices will
be 50% higher across Europe. It also accounts for a 5% rise in global food
prices.



A more severe scenario studies the potential impact of world oil prices
increasing by US$40 with a 100% rise in gas prices for Europe and a 50% rise in
gas prices for the rest of the world. The downside scenario assumes a 10% hike
in global food prices.



Our upside scenario looks at possible outcomes if the conflict is resolved
sooner than expected, with prices returning to early February levels and
production and trade flows restored.

Risks to our forecast are currently skewed to the downside, with more insights
available in our report.

 

Read the KPMG Global Economic Outlook H1' 2022 report


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