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2,365.24
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News
There may be record high temperatures this year. Why will this also push up gold
prices?
2024-07-09 04:08:57
Climate researcher Zeke Hausfather said in an interview that 2024 is very likely
to have the highest temperature on record. According to foreign media reports,
the earliest Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean has hit the Caribbean
islands, causing serious damage.

Here’s the real surprise: fluctuating temperatures and violent summer storms can
be valuable economic indicators for the gold market.

In times of uncertainty, investors flock to gold as a safe haven, causing supply
to fall and prices to rise.

The World Gold Council said that against the backdrop of a range of climate
issues, gold's long-term returns are likely to be stronger than many mainstream
asset classes.

In fact, gold price fluctuations have far more to do with how global leaders and
public discourse respond to climate events.

A 2023 study found a strong correlation between return volatility and two types
of climate change risks: transitional risks (i.e., the political and social
shift toward green energy) and physical risks (those caused by climate events)
actual damage).

The researchers found that gold prices were more volatile in the face of green
energy policies and less volatile in adverse weather conditions, which is not
widely discussed.

As severe weather dominates the news and policy arena, a second reason for
gold's price volatility is its role in decarbonization, the process of reducing
potentially climate-changing emissions from industrial manufacturing.

Mining is notoriously high-emissions, but as the World Gold Council points out,
it is possible to develop environmentally friendly methods that are particularly
relevant to gold.

"It is credible that gold mining could reach net zero by 2050," the report's
authors wrote.

As gold becomes an increasingly "clean" metal and plays an important role in
"green" technology, demand for gold is sure to rise during the clean energy
transition, driving gold prices soaring.
More >
Positive(26584)
Negative(19751)
Senior market analyst: Gold prices may fall below $2,300/oz in the short term
2024-07-09 03:20:57
According to Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, gold prices have
been supported by a weak U.S. dollar since late June, but are now more likely to
fall below $2,300 an ounce in the short term rather than quickly rise to
all-time highs.

"Gold prices have fallen 0.9% since Monday, almost back to trading levels before
Friday's employment data," Kuptsikevich said in an analysis published on Monday.
"Perhaps the first market reaction after the data was released highlighted the
mentality of major market participants. : They are ready to sell.

He pointed out that gold's recent strength is mainly due to the relative
weakness of the U.S. dollar, which has fallen 1% since the end of June.

"Weak jobs data also pushed gold prices higher on Friday, leading to a weaker
dollar and bringing the start of interest rate cuts closer," he added. "However,
we note that gold prices fell 0.8% in the first few minutes after the data was
released. kinetic energy.”

Kuptsikevich said the market's reaction was a classic "worse is better" move.
"Weakness in the labor market has increased expectations of imminent interest
rate cuts, which has boosted risk appetite," he said. "But this is a very
unsustainable strategy because not all negative factors in the macro economy
have a deflationary effect. . Instead, we see confirmation that wage growth
(4.1% annual growth) is higher than inflation (3.3% annual growth rate), while
employment data from previous months has been revised down and the unemployment
rate has reached a 31-month high. point."

He said this means that the U.S. economic situation is deteriorating rapidly,
outpacing the slowdown in inflation. “In this case, a major interest rate cut
would be an attempt to support economic growth rather than an attempt to
eliminate excessive tightening of monetary policy,” he said. “That is, for ‘bad’
reasons rather than ‘good’ reasons. "The likelihood of interest rate cuts is
increasing, which is negative for risk appetite in the medium term."

Turning to technicals, Kuptsikevich noted that gold has encountered solid
resistance at $2,390 an ounce, a level that triggered a partial reversal in
April. "Further improvement in risk appetite in global financial markets cannot
be ruled out and may be supported by the quarterly earnings season," he said.
"Whether gold prices can break through $2,390 an ounce and strengthen may become
an important price signal, indicating a move towards $2,450. /oz near all-time
highs.”

But in the short term, Kuptsikevich believes gold prices are facing greater
downward pressure. "We set the 50-day moving average at $2,340 an ounce as the
first signal point," he said. “If this line is breached without bullish
resistance, prices could quickly fall back to the key $2,300/oz area, which
would determine dynamics in the coming months. A break below this level would be
viewed as the first move since October. The disruption of expectations for
monetary policy tightening.”
More >
Positive(18762)
Negative(15439)
Gold market analysis: Slowing non-farm payrolls raises interest rate cut
expectations, gold breaks through range pressure
2024-07-08 07:35:37
On Friday (July 5), gold prices expanded their gains, with spot gold rising 1.3%
to close at $2,385.63 per ounce, hitting a maximum of $2,392.84. Gold prices
have risen more than 2% so far last week to their highest level in more than a
month. Key employment data in the United States previously showed that the labor
market is softening, thus raising expectations for a rate cut by the Federal
Reserve in September. The decline in the U.S. dollar prompted gold to rebound
and break through the upper pressure level of the previous sideways range.



Data on Friday showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 jobs in
June, slightly higher than the 190,000 expected by economists polled by Reuters.
However, the number of new jobs created in May was revised down to 218,000 from
272,000, while the number of new jobs created in April was revised down to
108,000 from 165,000 previously. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June,
slightly above expectations of 4.0%. After the data was released, U.S. interest
rate futures prices reflected that the market's confidence in a September
interest rate cut was still there, with the implied probability remaining at
around 72%. Traders also believe the likelihood of a second rate cut in December
is also rising. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding
non-yielding gold. The U.S. dollar fell to a three-week low against other
currencies after the jobs data was released, prompting gold bulls to push for a
recovery in gold prices. As the U.S. economy slows, the biggest risk to the gold
market remains inflation, which will be the key data this week. However, many
analysts point out that even this risk is limited, as slower economic growth
will lead to less pressure on prices. Jonathan Petersen, senior market economist
at Capital Economics, said in a note on Friday that he expected the dollar to
weaken further as inflationary pressures begin to ease. This environment may
continue to support gold prices. Economists at TD Securities also don't think
inflation will prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates in September. "While
we continue to believe the Fed's first decision on whether to ease rates will
depend primarily on inflation outcomes, signals from labor market conditions and
continued weakness in consumer spending suggest the Fed is likely to do so in
the coming days," analysts said in a note on Friday. "We remain optimistic that
the Fed will first ease interest rates at the September FOMC meeting, as we hope
that core PCE inflation will gradually slow back to the inflation target by
then." Consistent monthly pace. "It can be said that the non-farm payrolls
report in July has greatly boosted the market's confidence that the Federal
Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September. Gold's restless bullish
flames may be rekindled.
More >
Positive(29362)
Negative(12076)
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