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NEWS

3 June 2024
Street calls of the week: Upgrades for Dupont, Datadog and NetApp

Here is your Pro Recap of the top takeaways from Wall Street analysts for the
past week: upgrades for Dupont, Datadog and NetApp.

U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day.
Dupont

What happened? On Tuesday, Citi upgraded Dupont (NYSE:DD) to Buy with $95 price
target

What’s the full story? DD shares exhibited a robust reaction in the 1.5 days
following the announcement, rising approximately 3%. The feedback from investors
was positive - the prospect of operating as standalone businesses should
generate value through targeted growth and portfolio clarity. Additionally, Citi
sees potential from an electronics recovery and the easing of destocking in more
challenged markets.

The most significant source of resistance lies in valuation, particularly
concerning Electronics and then New DuPont (RemainCo). Upon revisiting the Sum
of the Parts in the new construct, The analysts’ views are more reflective of
solid earnings from electronics over the next 18 months.

Citi sees the potential for more detail on the separation as potential positive
catalysts throughout the year.

Buy at Citi means “Buy (1) ETR of 15% or more or 25% or more for High risk
stocks.”

How did the stock react? Dupont opened the regular session at $82.44 and closed
at $82.08, a gain of 1.18% from the prior day's regular close.
Mind Medicine

What happened? On Wednesday, well Tuesday after hours, Baird initiated coverage
on Mind Medicine Inc (NASDAQ:MNMD) at Outperform with a $27 price target.

What’s the full story? Baird’s optimistic stance is primarily driven by the
promising prospects of the company’s lead drug, MM120, a novel form of LSD
designed to treat generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). In a pivotal phase 2b
clinical trial, MM120 demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in
GAD symptoms compared to a placebo. The results are particularly noteworthy as
the observed therapeutic effect of MM120 was not only rapid in onset but also
sustained over the entire 12-week duration of the study.

The brokerage house’s confidence is further bolstered by the recent decision of
the FDA to award Breakthrough Therapy Designation to MM120. This designation is
reserved for drugs that show substantial improvement over existing therapies for
serious or life-threatening diseases. The fact that MM120’s impact was greater
than that of currently approved treatments after just a single dose highlights
its potential to be a game-changer in the GAD treatment landscape.

Considering the current market dynamics and the unmet medical needs within the
GAD space, Baird views the market opportunity for MM120 as having blockbuster
potential. The brokerage house’s analysis suggests that the drug could
significantly disrupt the existing market, offering a new and potentially
superior treatment option for patients suffering from GAD. This could translate
into substantial financial success for the company, justifying the high
expectations reflected in the $27 price target

Outperform at Baird means “Expected to outperform on a total return,
risk-adjusted basis the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months.”

How did the stock react? Mind Medicine surged 6% after hours on Tuesday as the
headlines circulate. As of the regular session open Wednesday, Mind Medicine
opened at $8.90 and closed at $8.91, a gain of 6.64% from the prior day's
regular close.
Datadog Inc

What happened? On Thursday, BofA upgraded Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG) to Buy with a
$155 price target.

What’s the full story? Datadog, a service that aids organizations in monitoring
application and infrastructure performance to ensure high-quality end-user
experiences, is seen by the bank as a significant opportunity, estimated to be
worth $53bn. The robust platform of Datadog, which boasts 22 products, is
particularly appealing to spend consolidators and those seeking cutting-edge
technology.

Furthermore, BofA anticipates that Datadog will consistently deliver a
Rule-of-40+ profile, which means 20%+ revenue growth plus 20%+ free cash flow
margin. This expectation places Datadog well above the 30% average for the
infrastructure peer group, demonstrating the bank’s confidence in Datadog’s
potential for sustained growth and profitability.

Buy at BofA means “Buy stocks are expected to have a total return of at least
10% and are the most attractive stocks in the coverage cluster.”

How did the stock react? Datadog opened the regular session at $123.38 and
closed at $117.45, a decline of 3.48% from the prior day's regular close.
NetApp

What happened? On Friday, JPMorgan upgraded NetApp (NASDAQ:NTAP) to Neutral with
a $125 price target.

What’s the full story? JPMorgan’s updated perspective is driven by the company’s
demonstrated capability to maintain its gross margins in the face of escalating
NAND prices. This development stands in contrast to JPMorgan’s initial forecast,
which anticipated a decline in margins due to the cost pressures.

In addition to the positive outlook on gross margins, JPMorgan continues to
recognize NTAP’s distinct position in the market, particularly in terms of its
Cloud services and its leadership in All-Flash Arrays (AFA) for on-premises
solutions. However, this is tempered by a perceived lackluster macroeconomic
performance when compared to its peers, who are currently experiencing a more
immediate surge in demand driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI) advancements.

Neutral at JPMorgan means “over the duration of the price target indicated in
this report, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total
return of the stocks in the Research Analyst’s, or the Research Analyst’s
team’s, coverage universe.”

How did the stock react? NetApp opened the regular session at $119.75 and closed
at $120.43, a gain of 3.73% from the prior day's regular close.

9 June 2024
What will the Fed do after hotter-than-expected jobs report?

The U.S. job market is still hot. The NFP report, released on Friday, showed the
addition of 272,000 jobs in May, crushing analyst estimates.

Such a divergence from the consensus is likely have a substantial effect on the
Federal Reserve. This surge suggests sustained momentum in the labor market. 

As a result, the central bank, which has been closely monitoring employment
figures, may see the strong job growth as a reason to hold off on initiating
rate cuts.

The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.0% may seem counterintuitive given the
substantial job gains, yet it is a nuanced indicator that could reflect changes
in labor force participation or other demographic shifts within the U.S.
economy.


WHAT ECONOMISTS ARE SAYING ABOUT THE NFP REPORT

Bank of America: "The bottom line is that the stronger-than-expected May
employment report remains consistent with our monetary policy outlook for
staying on hold. This report showed solid payroll gains with positive
implications for consumer spending."

"We expect the Fed to stay on hold for now and start a gradual cutting cycle in
December which will depend on a moderation in the inflation data. The economy
may be cooling, but it is not cool."

TD Securities: "The FOMC is widely expected to keep the Fed funds target range
unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, with Chair Powell likely providing a similar policy
message to May."

"However, the risk is that the chairman appears somewhat optimistic given the
recent evolution of the US consumer, and if the May CPI report shows further
inflation progress. We also look for the dot plot to show two cuts as the median
for 2024 and four for 2025."

Evercore ISI: "Within broad ranges, the inflation data not the jobs data will
determine whether the Fed cuts in September or not."

Investec: "Our base case is for a September start to easing, with the Fed moving
policy rates gradually lower from there. The actual decision at next week’s
meeting is unlikely to throw too many surprises, but we will be hunting for
clues as to whether our idea of where rates are heading matches that of the
Fed’s."

Jefferies: "Bottom line is that the Fed is still firmly on hold. Next week's CPI
is likely to print +0.1%/+0.3%, and we see some upside for a +0.2% on the
headline. A July cut is also likely a pipe dream, and it's unlikely that things
will fall apart quickly enough before September for a cut as well."

"We continue to expect 1 cut in 2024, likely in November or December depending
on how the Fed handles the election results."

UBS: "This report seems likely to continue to bolster FOMC participants'
assessments of the expansion's resilience. It also puts at risk our expectation
that the June SEP has a 2 cut dot median for 2024. However, there are a other
reasons for the FOMC retaining the option of a September rate cut and keeping
market pricing between one and two cuts while they await more data."

Citi: "We are shifting our base case for a first rate cut from July to September
on well-above-consensus 272k new jobs in May. We now expect 75bp of total cuts
this year in September, November and December."

"But the jobs report does not change our view that hiring demand, and the
broader economy, is slowing and that this will ultimately provoke the Fed to
react with a series of cuts beginning in the next few months."

3 June 2024
Why is the fiscal impulse fading despite 'unsustainable' deficits? BofA
discusses

In a note released earlier in the week, Bank of America economists explored why
is the fiscal impulse fading despite ongoing large deficits.

The bank’s latest US Economic Weekly noted that the slowdown in private and
public investment in Q1 2024 indicates that last year’s significant fiscal boost
is now diminishing.

“We were not surprised by this development, as we have been arguing that the
fiscal impulse was likely to turn roughly neutral this year,” economists said in
a note.

A common question raised by clients is why fiscal policy doesn't continue to
support economic growth, given the “unsustainable” deficits. In attempts to
address these concerns, BofA clarifies that "the level of GDP is related to the
size of the deficit, but growth in GDP is a function of the change in the
deficit relative to the previous year."

“We think the confusion arises because the deficit is widely understood to be a
flow variable, but GDP is sometimes mistaken for a stock, whereas it is actually
also a flow,” economists added.

They further explain that large deficits do not necessarily translate into
ongoing economic expansion. Typically, a substantial fiscal expansion results in
a level shift up in GDP. However, if the deficit remains stable or contracts
slightly afterward, the impact of fiscal policy on GDP growth (the fiscal
impulse) can shift from strongly positive to flat or even negative.

Citing Fed Chair Powell’s remarks, the current fiscal path may be
“unsustainable,” but this does not mean fiscal policy remains expansionary,
BofA’s team explained.

Illustrating this point, BofA points to the primary deficit-to-GDP ratio, which
is currently eight-tenths below the same period from a year ago, “suggesting
that Federal fiscal policy is a drag on growth despite elevated deficit levels,”
the bank said.

3 June 2024
Top 5 things to watch in markets in the week ahead

Friday’s all important non-farm payrolls report will be the highlight of the
economic calendar in the coming week as markets try to gauge the future
direction of U.S. interest rates. The European Central Bank is likely to deliver
a rate cut that will put the Eurozone on a diverging rate path from the U.S.
Meanwhile, OPEC is to decide on output cuts and the Bank of Canada will deliver
its latest rate decision. Here's your look at what's happening in markets for
the week ahead.

1. Jobs numbers

Fridays closely watched nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show that the
U.S. labour market remained strong again in May. Economists are expecting the
economy to have added 185,000 jobs, a modest uptick from the prior month.

Investors had been worried that an overly strong economy might prevent the U.S.
Federal Reserve from lowering rates this year at all, or even require a rate
rise. But those concerns were alleviated last month, albeit temporarily, by data
showing slowing inflation and a cooling labour market.

Still, policymakers have urged patience on rate cuts, saying they would like to
see several months of data to be sure inflation is heading back towards their 2%
target. The employment report could prove the economy is losing steam if it
shows the slowdown in job creation has continued.

2. ECB rate decision

The ECB is all but certain to become the first major central bank to cut
interest rates this cycle on Thursday.

With a 25 basis point rate cut all but promised by policymakers market watchers
will be focusing on what ECB President Christine Lagarde has to say about what
comes next.

Inflation in the bloc's dominant services sector remains sticky and its economy
is recovering faster than expected, while a closely watched wage growth figure
accelerated last quarter, leaving the outlook beyond June less certain.

Markets are still expecting the ECB will cut rates multiple times this year
compared the Fed and the Bank of England though bets on future moves have been
trimmed back.

They now expect two cuts and less than a 50% chance of a third - compared with
three when the ECB last met and at least five at the start of the year.

3. OPEC output cuts

OPEC+ will likely agree on Sunday to prolong its deep oil output cuts into 2024
and possibly 2025 Reuters reported, as the group seeks to shore up the market
amid tepid global demand growth, high interest rates and rising rival U.S.
production.

Oil prices are trading near $80 per barrel, below what many OPEC+ members need
to balance their budget. Worries over slow demand growth in top oil importer
China have weighed on prices and oil market analysts expect OPEC+ to extend cuts
to balance supply.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia,
together known as OPEC+, has made a series of deep output cuts since late 2022.

OPEC+ members are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels
per day (bpd), or about 5.7% of global demand.

4. Wall Street

Despite all three major U.S. stock indexes posting losses last week they still
ended the month higher, with the S&P 500 rising about 4.8%, the Nasdaq jumping
6.9% and the Dow climbing 2.4%.

While it’s been a banner year for the major U.S. stock indexes, one economically
sensitive corner of the market remains a sore spot.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average has fallen about 5% so far this year and
some investors have said the struggles for the 20-stock transport index - which
includes railroad operators, airlines, package shipping companies and trucking
firms - could signal weakness in the economy or prevent the broader market from
making significant further gains unless they bounce back.

The Dow transports are "a barometer for future economic activity," Chuck
Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services told Reuters.
"They may be indicating that while a recession isn't imminent, that there is
probably a slowdown in the economy that's ahead here."

5. Bank of Canada

The BoC is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis point rate cut at its upcoming
meeting on Wednesday after data on Friday showed the country’s economy expanded
at a slower than expected pace in the first quarter.

The GDP report indicated that Canada's economy did not rebound from a soft patch
last year as strongly as data initially suggested and may convince the central
bank to start lowering borrowing costs.

"All ducks appear to be in a row for the Bank of Canada to kick-start the policy
easing cycle and lower the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% on
Wednesday," RBC said in Friday note.

At the central bank’s last meeting in April Governor Tiff Macklem noted that the
requirements for a rate cut appeared to be in place but that officials needed to
see more evidence on slowing inflation.

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Phone number +48692290270+447441425756
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