moneymorning.com
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Submitted URL: https://events-c.mb.moneymorninglive.com/web-only/z/c9i7yw0fj?uid=f9a22c97-a388-41b7-89b4-5ae4357cc040&mid=e5382213-59e8-4e32-8ec1-354dd6...
Effective URL: https://moneymorning.com/investing/7-trillion-in-u-s-debt-could-hit-markets-like-a-ton-of-bricks/?bsft_aaid=09f02da4-16a1...
Submission: On April 21 via api from BE — Scanned from DE
Effective URL: https://moneymorning.com/investing/7-trillion-in-u-s-debt-could-hit-markets-like-a-ton-of-bricks/?bsft_aaid=09f02da4-16a1...
Submission: On April 21 via api from BE — Scanned from DE
Form analysis 6 forms found in the DOM
GET /archives/
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5 Ways to Beat the Fed (and Crush Inflation)
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$7 TRILLION IN U.S. DEBT COULD HIT MARKETS LIKE A TON OF BRICKS
This expert insight from Garrett Baldwin originally ran in on April 21, 2023
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Garrett Baldwin
Dear Reader,
Prepare for a monumental event next week - one that could upend markets and
shake the economy to its core. At Flashpoint Trader, we're already looking ahead
to this pivotal moment, as it just might become the biggest story of the year.
Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance, a Tokyo-based company, may not ring a bell for
most people. Nevertheless, they're set to make a move which could have dramatic
implications for our wealth.
This event has been more than 10 years in the making, and the time to get
prepared could quickly run out.
So, here's the deal with Fukoku
For years, the Bank of Japan has run an easy monetary policy, consistently
expanding its balance sheet with a "significant" amount of quantitative easing
in a bid to control interest rates and yields, heat up the country's perpetually
frosty economy, and gin up inflation.
Of course, the US Federal Reserve and most of the rest of the world's big
economies' central banks, by contrast, have recently begun unloading their
balance sheets and tightening up policy to fight inflation. They're selling.
There is a direct causal relationship between the performance of the S&P 500 and
these major bank assets. The banks act as the buyer of last resort for bonds,
providing liquidity to the system. Ultimately, this money indirectly finds its
way into risk assets.
Companies like Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance have been hedging foreign debt to
generate more yield than what's available in their public markets. This has been
a massive carry trade. However, when the Fed and other central banks raised
interest rates, the returns on these trades diminished to the point of
unprofitability.
This is driven home by one of the most important charts I've seen so far in
2023; BOJ bonds offering higher yields than hedged foreign debt.
In Japan, central bank money meisters have finally got the inflation they've
spent decades looking for; it's running at around 3.3% there currently. The
economic weather is changing. Now, incoming Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is
planning to chair his first meeting as BOJ governor next week.
For what it's worth, Ueda has said he's not planning a quick about-face, and I
believe him; tightening could take months or even years to play out.
Of course, what the BOJ does is less important than what market participants do.
They've already put plans in motion to unwind their big foreign bond trade.
For example, Fukoku plans to unload $65 billion in currency-hedged foreign debt
holdings. If more companies follow suit and unload foreign bonds, the relevant
central banks will be in a tight spot.
The question that concerns you and I: Who will end up holding US debt moving
forward? Around $7 trillion is held by foreign entities.
If these foreign institutions start to dump foreign debt - including our own, of
course - because the Japanese 30-year bond becomes more attractive, it can
create liquidity problems for bonds worldwide. In response, the Fed or the
European Centr…
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privacy policy .
Join the conversation. Click here to jump to comments…
Garrett Baldwin
About the Author
Browse Garrett's articles | View Garrett's research services
Garrett Baldwin is a globally recognized research economist, financial writer,
consultant, and political risk analyst with decades of trading experience and
degrees in economics, cybersecurity, and business from Johns Hopkins, Purdue,
Indiana University, and Northwestern.
… Read full bio
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