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ON EVE OF IPCC REPORT RELEASE, ED CARR WARNS: ‘TRANSFORM, OR BE TRANSFORMED’

IDCE director previews critical climate change assessment
February 25, 2022
By Melissa Lynch ’95, MSPC ’15


 

People in low-lying Bangladesh, which is already prone to flooding, currently
have multiple adaptation options, but sooner or later they will be forced to
migrate to avoid perishing, says IDCE Director Ed Carr.

 

When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) releases Working Group
2’s contribution to its Sixth Assessment Report next week, the bottom line will
be perfectly clear: The time to act is now.

“We waited too long,” says Edward Carr, director of the International
Development, Environment, and Community Department at Clark and a lead author of
the report’s chapter on climate-resilient development pathways. “Incremental
changes aren’t going to get it done anymore.”

The IPCC is the international body for assessing the science related to climate
change. It was created in 1988 to provide governments at all levels with regular
assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future
risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. In their reports, IPCC authors
review existing literature and summarize what is known about the drivers of
climate change, its impacts and future risks, and how adaptation and mitigation
can reduce those risks. The reports are then reviewed and negotiated by
representatives from the IPCC’s 195 member nations, with the final “summary for
policymakers” representing an agreed set of facts.

Working Group 2’s report is planned for release on February 28. Carr, who is one
of only two WG2 authors from New England institutions, is obligated not to
discuss any of the report’s details until it’s been made public, but he recently
sat for an interview to highlight in broad strokes some of the issues that the
authors are addressing.

Carr says the science reviewed by the working group is clear on the urgent need
for adaptation. “We’re looking at transformations now — fundamental changes to
the way we live. It’s not just about where we get our energy; it’s how we think
about functioning in society.”

He notes the high incidence of extreme weather events, many of them devastating
and costly, that are climate connected — from heat waves, droughts, and
wildfires to record cold and snow. Every time we rebuild from a weather event
without changing how we build (or where), we lose an opportunity to transform
and adapt, Carr says.

“Right now, we have a decent number of options. The longer we wait, the fewer
choices we have.” Ultimately, he says, the two options will be to “transform, or
be transformed.”

For example, people in low-lying Bangladesh currently have multiple adaptation
options, but sooner or later they will be forced to migrate to avoid perishing.

“Here at Clark, this is the stuff we worry about,” Carr says. “We think about
those choices and work to better inform them, and to help people make decisions
pointed toward where the most reputable research is telling us to go.”

Adaptation, he explains, is about reducing people’s vulnerability while allowing
them to take advantage of new opportunities. A transformational change could
involve shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy, or developing cities
with sustainable transportation systems and reliable sources of clean water that
increase equity and bring access to good jobs and housing.

Recycling? Paying carbon offsets? Not transformational, he insists (though
better than nothing) — these do not ask for significant changes in how we live
and have relatively little impact on climate change.

> ‘Right now, we have a decent number of options. The longer we wait, the fewer
> choices we have.’

One of the most persistent challenges for consequential action around climate
change involves wealthy countries who can afford to rebuild over and over after
experiencing destructive events rather than substantively alter the behaviors
and functions that ultimately caused those events, Carr says.

Climate change will be felt most acutely by vulnerable populations first —
particularly in poorer nations — while most people in the United States won’t be
affected for years. But Carr points to the U.S. food system as an example of how
the impacts will ripple across the globe.

“We import and export piles of food,” he says. “If parts of the world we import
food from start seeing frequent droughts, will that starve us? No. Will it
affect our food prices? Yes — so the poorest and most vulnerable among us will
notice this first. When the price of bread doubles, I may get annoyed, but
someone else eats less.”

Transformational change may feel like an impossible feat for one person, but
Carr says there’s one action that can make a huge difference: voting.

“It’s about the system and structures we’re operating in,” he says. “I don’t
care if you drive a gas-guzzling car, because your personal consumption doesn’t
matter as much as getting people in place who will create the regulatory
environment needed to get rid of gas-powered cars.”

Some people can afford to put solar panels on their roofs, but the government
can conceivably create an environment where doing so is easy and affordable for
everyone.

That’s where the voters come in, along with groups like the IPCC, who make sure
that countries around the world are working from an accepted set of facts.

“We all live on one rock circling a relatively insignificant star in a fairly
insignificant galaxy,” Carr says. “We’re all interdependent here.”



Environment & SustainabilityScience & TechnologySocial Sciences



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