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OECD WARNS GREEN TRANSITION THREATENS RURAL AREAS




By Earle Gale in London | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2024-07-10 03:30
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Governments must have robust plans in place to care for people affected by the
transition to green economies, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development warned on Tuesday in its latest Employment Outlook report.

The annual deep-dive into employment trends across the 37-member bloc focused
this year on the impact of the green transition, and warned that switching to
environmentally sustainable societies could widen the urban-rural divide if
governments fail to guard against it happening.

Stefano Scarpetta, the OECD's director for employment, labor, and social
affairs, said in the report that it has "become clear that safeguarding the
planet must include a simultaneous commitment to taking care of people affected
by the green transition".

But he warned that the economic impact of the transition toward zero emissions
is happening at the same time as other global "mega-trends", including
cost-of-living crises, the lingering impact of the COVID‑19 pandemic, the
digital transformation, and major demographic shifts.

"These multiplying challenges mean that governments must design and implement
public policy solutions that respond to the economic and social impact of
environmental policies," he said, urging decision-makers to be mindful of the
social impacts of their crucial environmental policies.

The OECD Employment Outlook 2024 report shows those environmental policies have
already started to change the labor market, with the reality on the ground
falling somewhere between worst-case scenarios of mass layoffs and optimistic
predictions of green employment bonanzas.

Instead, the report says some 20 percent of the workforce across the OECD is
already working in sustainable jobs. And, in the years to come, around 25
percent of existing jobs across the OECD will be strongly affected by net-zero
policies, both positively and negatively.

Some of the largest impacts will be felt in sectors including fossil fuel energy
supply, transport services, mining, and the manufacturing of energy-intensive
products, the OECD said, predicting that,

by 2030, employment levels in

those industries will have fallen

by 14 percent.

But the report contends there are also reasons to be optimistic about the
transition to a green economy, with projections suggesting there will neither be
a major net decline or increase in the total number of jobs by 2050.

"Indeed, one encouraging finding is that almost all vanishing jobs in
high-emission industries have high-growth alternatives with similar basic
competence requirements," Scarpetta said.

The report warned, however, that most of the job losses expected during the
green transition will take place in high-emission industries in rural areas. And
most of the opportunities will come in skill-intensive industries in
predominantly urban areas.

The report said governments must act now to stop a gulf widening between urban
and rural areas, with training and welfare policies needed to ensure rural areas
are not left behind.

earle@mail.chinadailyuk.com



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