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PECAN PRICES SLIDE IN EUROPE ON ABUNDANT SUPPLY AND SOFT DEMAND

back to insight

November 22, 2022

1 mins read

The US 2022/23 pecan crop is anticipated to reach between 290-309 million lbs
(in-shell), relatively unchanged compared to the previous campaign (307 million
lbs). This crop estimation was made by Alexander Ott, the executive director of
the American Pecan Council, who was talking at the NDFTA (The Nut and Dried
Fruit Trade Association) event in London in the week of 15th November. According
to Mr. Ott, production this year has been adversely affected by drought in the
western growing areas, freezing conditions in Oklahoma and hurricane damage in
the southeast of the US.

Despite these setbacks, the overall production volume in US appears to be solid,
largely as a result of a strong output in Georgia. Earlier in October, the USDA
published its first 2022/23 crop production estimate, pegging the size of the US
harvest at 290.5 million lbs, an increase of 14% year-on-year (y-o-y).

These strong supply projections, coupled with soft global demand for pecans,
have led to the Mintec Benchmark Prices for US pecans (junior mammoth pecan
halves) falling on the CFR EU basis in the past four weeks. The benchmark was
down by 9% in the four-week period to the 17th of November, at USD 5.35/lb (CFR
EU).

Global demand for pecans was muted during 2021/22, with export shipments from
the US down 41% y-o-y between September 2021 and August 2022, at 79 million lbs,
compared to 133 million lbs (in-shell basis) in the previous campaign, according
to data published by the American Pecan Council. A large decline in exports was
registered in China (down 73% y-o-y to 11.6 million lbs), while shipments to
Europe contracted by 27% y-o-y, to 31.7 million lbs. Total shipments, including
the domestic US market, fell 5% y-o-y during 2021/22 for pecan kernels (162
million lbs) and 60% for in-shell nuts (42 million lbs).

During the first month of the new marketing campaign, in September 2022, the US
exported 5.8 million lbs of pecans compared to 8.3 million lbs exported during
September 2021. Commitments to ship (sold but not yet shipped) were up 60% y-o-y
during September for kernels, and up 254% for in-shell pecans.

Topics: Nuts, Seeds & Dried Fruit
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