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September 19, 2017


BEYOND CHINA AND INDIA, ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN NON-OECD ASIA CONTINUES TO GROW

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook
2017
Note: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Based on projections in EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017), much
of the future growth in world energy consumption will occur in the nations of
Asia outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (or
non-OECD Asia). Although China and India account for most of the region’s energy
consumption, EIA projects broad growth in other Southeast Asian nations,
including Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia.

These other non-OECD Asian nations are relatively small consumers of energy
individually, but collectively they accounted for 7% of world primary energy
consumption in 2015. IEO2017 projects that by 2040, the nations of non-OECD Asia
excluding China and India will account for nearly 10% of the world’s primary
energy consumption.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics
and International Energy Outlook 2017
Note: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

These countries’ collective gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to nearly
triple between 2015 and 2040, far outpacing population growth, which is expected
to increase by 30% between those years. Projected economic and demographic
trends lead to a strong increase in average household income, from about $5,000
(in real 2010 dollar terms) in 2015 to more than $12,000 by 2040 in the IEO2017
Reference case.

The nations of other non-OECD Asia share many structural similarities and trade
links with the growing economies of China and India, such as a relatively low
cost of labor, rising personal income, and capacity for infrastructure growth.

Similar to what has happened in China and India, the agricultural sectors in
these countries are expected to decline as a share of the economy, while their
construction industries grow to accommodate increasing urbanization.
Energy-intensive manufacturing, including motor vehicle and chemical production,
are also expected to grow rapidly. Altogether, industrial energy consumption in
other non-OECD Asian countries excluding China and India is projected to
increase by 60% between 2015 and 2040.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook
2017
Note: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Urbanization and rising standards of living are key components to increased
energy use in transportation and in buildings in the other non-OECD Asian
economies. IEO2017 projects passenger travel to more than triple between 2015
and 2040. Equally significant are the projected shifts in transportation modes.
In 2015, about 30% of travel in these countries was in automobiles; by 2040, EIA
projects that share to reach nearly 50%. The growth in automobile travel comes
at the expense of two- and three-wheel vehicles and mass transit, which are
relatively more fuel efficient.

Other forms of travel are also expected to increase. Freight travel increases as
a result of growing manufacturing sectors, improving infrastructure, and rising
personal incomes. Most of the energy consumption associated with freight travel
is in international marine transport, but EIA expects on-road freight transport
to increase as well.

Urbanization in the IEO2017 is also forecast to contribute to an increase in
demand for electricity and natural gas in buildings. Rising standards of living
in non-OECD countries increase the demand for electric appliances, equipment,
and commercial services. Residential and commercial coal use remains relatively
low, while natural gas use for cooking and heating increases.

Principal contributor: Ari Kahan

Tags: China, consumption/demand, electricity, IEO (International Energy
Outlook), India, non-OECD, OECD

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