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GBA FOREIGN TRADE REBOUNDS


THE FINANCE, INNOVATION AND MANUFACTURING HUB HAS CEMENTED ITS POSITION AS A KEY
GROWTH DRIVER FOR BOTH MAINLAND CHINA AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.

06 July 2022

Foreign trade from and into the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA)
rebounded in March after a big dip in February. The dip, an annual event, was
far less pronounced in the GBA than in the rest of Mainland China, with the
stability of growth underscoring the resilience of the region’s manufacturing
base and overall economy.

In total, the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of
China recorded US$55.99 billion in exports from Guangdong province in March,
which was mostly goods originating from the GBA, especially Shenzhen, Dongguan
and Foshan – three of the nine cities that, together with Hong Kong and Macao,
comprise the GBA.

Mainland imports and exports as of the end of March were slightly below where
they were in the same month a year earlier, according to data from Delta
Analysis, a firm that tracks GBA‑related figures. Overall, the GBA has
maintained a more positive trade balance than the rest of the mainland for many
years, underscoring its role as a global production powerhouse.

The March rebound was a welcome uptick after the significant dip in February,
mostly caused by the Lunar New Year break, according to economist Larry Qiu,
Head of the Department of Economics at Hong Kong’s Lingnan University.
Emphasising that the pattern is normal, as is a rebound in March, Mr Qiu said:
“There is a big dip of trade [both imports and exports] in February every year
because, firstly, February is shorter and, more importantly, the Chinese New
Year effect.”

For his part, Yang Dong, Assistant Professor in the Department of Logistics and
Maritime Studies at Hong Kong Polytechnic University, agrees that this
fluctuation is natural, saying that the peak in exports usually comes before
Christmas, given that many of the world’s holiday gifts are produced in the
mainland, and the peak in imports typically happens just before the Spring
Festival. The dip in production in February, however, has a direct effect on
trade and typically continues into March and April.

BACK TO TOP ^


PEAKS AND TROUGHS

When it first emerged, COVID-19 brought an unprecedented interruption to trade.
International trade declined significantly in the first quarter of 2020, with
imports and exports falling 6.4% year on year, while exports alone dropped
11.4%. As a result, the annual dip in February 2020 was far more pronounced than
usual across the country, including in the GBA.

Maintaining that production is all about industrial and logistics chains, Mr
Yang said: “When everything was normal, the chains were smooth, but once the
pandemic hit local factories and made them pause, the chains were broken.”

Nevertheless, mainland production capacity proved resilient and rebounded
quickly the following year. This was in no small part due to the country having
a relatively complete supply chain.

Expanding on this, Mr Yang said: “China’s export volume and trade volume
increased very quickly in 2021. The volume of trade and shipping was recovering
fast. In 2021 freight rates for shipping increased more than five times.
Production has grown.”

Another crucial issue has been delays at ports, with the pandemic leading to
operations being suspended from time to time. Noting the consequences of this,
Mr Yang said that some ports suffered from serious congestion and, as a result,
cargo shipments were delayed.

In broad terms, ports have continued operating, but shipment delays have proven
to be an issue. Congestion has hit some ports, most visibly Shanghai, leading to
delayed shipments which in turn dented trade. Data from Delta Analysis shows
that container and cargo throughput in Shanghai held up throughout the pandemic,
rebounding quickly after shutdowns – although the latest lockdown of the city in
March has had the most significant impact to date.   

Shanghai, typically the largest point of export out of the mainland and the
location of the country’s largest port, recorded Rmb1.01 trillion (US$151
billion) in trade during the first quarter of 2022, up 14.6% year on year,
largely on account of steady growth in the electric vehicle industry.

That said, it is impossible to overlook the impact on trade of efforts to
contain COVID-19. Shanghai, for one, was effectively locked down in March,
increasing the importance of trade in and out of the mainland cities of the GBA
and playing into the area’s role as a key manufacturing engine for the country
and the global economy.

Mr Yang points out that while trade from the GBA has also been impacted by
efforts to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks, the impact has been relatively mild.

BACK TO TOP ^


POWERHOUSE PUSH

Four GBA cities – Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Dongguan and Foshan – have remained among
the top mainland 10 cities for exports. For March 2022 alone, Shenzhen
contributed US$18.8 billion, Dongguan US$10.1 billion and Foshan US$7 billion to
exports.

Shenzhen’s imports and exports accounted for 44.9% of the trade volume of all
nine mainland cities of the GBA in 2021. The main exports out of the GBA were
toys, electronics and furniture. In all, mechanical and electrical products
accounted for 78.9% of exports from Shenzhen in the first quarter of 2022.




The main imported products included integrated circuits


Imports of electromechanical products reached Rmb2.7 trillion in the first
quarter of 2022, accounting for 81.2% of Shenzhen’s imports. The main imported
products included integrated circuits, components for automatic data processing
equipment and mobile phone parts.

Underscoring the resilience of Shenzhen the category of general trade, which
includes both imports and exports of products with a longer industry chain and
higher value‑added, increased by 5.1% to Rmb395.17 billion, accounting for 53.4%
of the city’s trade.

Foshan, another GBA city with strong export capacity, also managed to ramp up
exports of mechanical and electrical products, which helped increase overall
trade in the first quarter of 2022. During that quarter, Foshan’s foreign trade
reached Rmb180.8 billion, an increase of 4.7% year on year. The city exported
mechanical and electrical products worth Rmb77.94 billion, a slight drop of
0.1%. This category is significant and accounted for 49.9% of Foshan’s exports
in the first three months of the year.

In the same period, foreign trade out of Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong
province, hit Rmb247.03 billion, an increase of 1.1%. The city’s trade structure
is also improving. General trade imports and exports accounted for 58% of the
total, up 8.5% year on year.


The resilience of the GBA is visible in Dongguan, a city with a traditionally
strong textile and garment industry base. Foreign orders for many textile and
garment enterprises in Dongguan have been trimmed somewhat but generally held
up.

The GBA has long been the engine for the country’s foreign trade and has rolled
out effective pandemic‑control measures that have ultimately limited the
disruptive impact on trade.

As with Shanghai, Shenzhen experienced an outbreak of the Omicron COVID-19
variant and implemented stringent measures, including a full lockdown for seven
days. The approach seems to have limited the impact on production. Guangzhou
also experienced an outbreak that was quickly brought under control.

Delta Analysis data suggests emerging cross‑border e‑commerce has helped
Shenzhen keep its leading status in global trade. Shenzhen customs statistics
show the value of cross‑border e‑commerce imports and exports has jumped 35
times over the past five years.

Related link
HKTDC Research




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