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HOW TRUMP’S ELECTION COULD FORTIFY A CONSERVATIVE SUPREME COURT MAJORITY



By Kaelan Deese
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November 7, 2024 7:00 am
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President-elect Donald Trump could have a chance to solidify the Supreme Court’s
Republican-appointed majority for decades to come after he was elected to a
second term in the White House on Tuesday.

Several of the high court’s Republican-appointed justices are in their 70s and
may be tempted to retire with a Republican in the White House for the next four
years. That decision would not change the balance of power on the court but
could give Trump, who appointed three justices in his first term, an opportunity
to extend the longevity of its 6-3 conservative majority.



John Roberts, the chief justice, is 70, while Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence
Thomas are 74 and 76, respectively.

In a less likely scenario, the retirement of a Democratic-appointed justice
would clear the way for that majority to expand to 7-2.

Justice Samuel Alito and Justice Clarence Thomas.

“If Justices Clarence Thomas and Sam Alito retire and Trump appoints their
replacements … Trump will have appointed a majority of the court — the most
since Franklin D. Roosevelt,” said Chris Geidner, publisher of the Law Dork
newsletter, noting Roosevelt was able to secure five appointees to the high
court.



Thomas, Alito, and Roberts, all appointed by Republican presidents, have played
a significant role in advancing conservative judicial thought.

Each signed on to a recent decision to upend the 1984 Chevron doctrine, giving
courts license to decide if an agency’s actions are in accordance with a law.
Other high-stakes cases for the court include decisions that sent the issue of
abortion access back to the states and blocked affirmative action in college
admissions.

Any new nominees would be in a favorable position to be confirmed in the Senate
after Republicans took back the majority on Tuesday, with a net gain of at least
three seats.

“I would bet the farm that both Alito and Thomas will step down in the next year
or two, and Donald Trump will get to appoint their replacement,” Sen. Susan
Collins (R-ME) told Roll Call, adding those successors will be at least as
conservative “but 30 years younger.”



Over his first term, Trump left a distinct mark on the Supreme Court by
appointing three justices, tipping the ideological balance to the right with the
confirmations of Justice Neil Gorsuch, Justice Brett Kavanaugh, and Justice Amy
Coney Barrett.

Replacements for any retiring justices are likely to be committed conservatives
steeped in originalism, a philosophy that interprets the Constitution according
to its original meaning. The liberal justices, now often relegated to dissenting
opinions, need at least two conservatives to join them to shift any ruling, a
difficult proposition under the court’s current composition.

The conservative composition has also fueled a campaign against Thomas and Alito
by left-wing activist groups stoking concerns that the pair have engaged in
ethical lapses. Their tenure has even led to calls for impeachment by
progressive lawmakers such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).

Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts poses for a portrait at the East
Conference Room of the Supreme Court building on Oct. 7, 2022, in Washington,
D.C. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Thomas, Alito, and Roberts have not given any indication that they plan to
retire in the next four years. Still, many observers believe that Thomas and
Alito may step down to ensure their legacies continue through conservative
successors. Roberts, who often seeks consensus, might view retirement with less
urgency.



If any of the Republican-appointed justices step down, legal experts and pundits
like Trump ally Vivek Ramaswamy have floated names as replacements, including
James Ho and Kyle Duncan, judges for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th
Circuit. Another possible contender is Judge Lawrence VanDyke of the U.S. Court
of Appeals for the 9th Circuit.

What’s more, Senate Republicans will likely speed along Trump’s judicial
nominations.

With Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) anticipated to return as head of the Senate
Judiciary Committee, the nomination process for Trump’s judicial picks could
proceed with minimal resistance. In addition to the Supreme Court, Trump will
also work to fill other federal court vacancies, extending his influence across
the judiciary.

President Joe Biden has only been able to nominate one justice during his time
in office, appointing the first black woman to the high court, Justice Ketanji
Brown Jackson. But her appointment did not move the needle of the high court’s
majority, as she was named to replace Justice Stephen Breyer, an appointee of
former President Bill Clinton.

Biden has placed a record number of nonwhite judges in the federal judiciary,
one of the key goals of his administration, and has named 213 federal judges to
date. Trump had appointed a total of 220 federal judges as of the same time
period during his first term, according to a tracker from the Heritage
Foundation.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

On the liberal side of the bench, Justice Sonia Sotomayor is the oldest of the
liberal justices at 70. She faces health considerations that some have
speculated could lead to her retirement. But liberal justices will have an
incentive to stay on the court in the hope that a Democratic president will be
elected in four years.

Brown is 54 years old, while the third liberal justice, Elena Kagan, is 64.





HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT TRUMP WINNING THE ELECTORAL VOTES AND BECOMING THE FIRST
PRESIDENT IN 127 YEARS TO SERVE NONCONSECUTIVE TERMS?

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