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AUTOMOTIVE DECODED

Previous edition: 27 Nov 2024
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‘ALARM BELLS RINGING' AS EV TRANSITION HITS UK AUTO INDUSTRY

SMMT says carmakers in Britain face an almost GBP6bn bill to comply with ZEV
Mandate in first year.

The UK automotive industry has called for ‘urgent government intervention’ to
safeguard the sector and Britain’s zero emission vehicle transition.

The call comes following the news that Stellantis to close a UK plant (Luton)
and said that its decision came in the context of the UK’s Zero Emissions
Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate which has been criticised by UK manufacturers who say it
will impose huge costs at a time when market demand for BEVs is undershooting
expectations.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said its analysis suggests
weak demand for EVs and the need to fulfil ever-rising sales quotas will cost
the industry some GBP6bn in 2024, and even more next year – with the potential
for devastating impacts on business viability and jobs.

Heavy discounting of BEVs

Further, the SMMT points out that the mandated targets have given manufacturers
no option but to subsidise sales, incentivising fleet, business and consumer EV
sales through an estimated £4 billion worth of discounts. Despite this, the
industry looks likely to fall short of the 22% EV market share demanded,
potentially creating a £1.8 billion bill for compliance for those missing their
targets for cars alone, either to government or to competitors, most of whom
manufacture their EVs abroad. Van manufacturers will face further costs, with
market demand drastically behind the ambition set by the mandate.

 The result, the SMMT maintains, is a total ‘compliance bill’ of almost £6
billion in 2024 alone, with costs set to mount next year. With global
manufacturers already making production cutbacks due to weak EV demand, losses
of this scale could force brands to withdraw from the UK market and cause global
investors to ‘question the UK’s appeal as a manufacturing destination,’ the SMMT
warns.

Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said: “We need an urgent review of the
automotive market and the regulation intended to drive it. Not because we want
to water down any commitments, but because delivery matters more than notional
targets. The industry is hurting; profitability and viability are in jeopardy
and jobs are on the line. When the world changes, so must we. Workable
regulation – backed with incentives – will set us up for success and green
growth over the next decade.”

The UK’s ZEV Mandate – how it works

The UK Government’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate targets EV share numbers
and will fine OEMs for non-compliance.

While BEV car sales in the UK have reached almost 300,000 in the first ten
months, that represents 18.1% of the market – an increase on 2023, but still
significantly short of the 22% target for this year (and of the 28% which must
be achieved in 2025) under the ZEV mandate.

Manufacturers that fail to meet the compliance levels or do not sell enough ZEVs
face penalties of GBP15,000 (USD20,000) for every non-ZEV unit sold over their
mandated allowance. While the UK Government has said it will talk to the
industry about how the ZEV Mandate works – suggesting their could be some
flexibility in its application to help the industry – it has also said it wants
to keep to the overall targets as part of the UK’s net zero commitments and to
maintain the phasing out of petrol and diesel only powertrain vehicle sales by
2030.

When the UK’s ZEV mandate was unveiled, the industry anticipated that 457,000
electric cars would be registered in 2024, which should have accounted for 23.3%
of all new car registrations. However, the SMMT said the latest outlook shows
94,000 fewer cars will be registered, totalling just 363,000 with a market share
of 18.7%. The situation is even worse for vans with the outlook halved to just
20,000 units expected to be registered this year, a 5.7% market share against a
2024 ZEV Mandate target of 10%.








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IN OUR PREVIOUS EDITION

Automotive Decoded

THE IMPACT OF EV INCENTIVES ON EUROPEAN AUTOMOTIVE SALES: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

26 Nov 2024

Automotive Decoded

WILL NEW G45 X3 MAKE BMW UK'S NO.2 BRAND?

25 Nov 2024

Automotive Decoded

CRITICAL MINERAL RECYCLING COULD AVOID ENERGY TRANSITION SHORTAGES

22 Nov 2024


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