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TUC – UK HAS SUFFERED THIRD WORST FALL IN OECD FOR HOUSEHOLD SPENDING SINCE
PANDEMIC


Share
Issue date
01 Mar 2024

 * New analysis shows that annual household spending is still £20bn lower than
   before Covid struck
 * UK economy would be at least £84bn bigger if household spending had risen in
   line with other OECD nations
 * TUC says economic failures since Covid have been exacerbated by “14 years of
   stagnating growth and living standards”
 * “Serious long-term economic plan needed – not sticking-plaster policies”,
   says union body

The UK has suffered the third worst fall in household spending among OECD
countries since the pandemic, according to new TUC analysis published today
(Friday).

The analysis shows the amount UK households spent in their local economies fell
by 1.4% between the end of 2019 and third quarter of 2023 – the equivalent of
£20bn annually.

During this period only Germany and the Czech Republic experienced a bigger fall
among 37 OECD nations.

International outlier

The TUC says that had UK household spending kept pace with the OECD average, the
UK economy would now be at least £84bn a year bigger.

In the UK households have cut spending by £700 a year, on average, since Covid
struck.

But had spending risen in line with the OECD average, UK households would be
spending £2,900 a year more than before the pandemic.

Failure to grow the economy

The TUC blamed the fall in household spending on the government’s failure to
deliver growth since the pandemic and on years of economic stagnation.

The UK economy is just 1% bigger than before the pandemic – compared to 8.2% in
America and 4.5% in Canada.

And the UK is the only G7 country currently in recession – after two successive
negative quarters of growth.

The TUC says this had a huge knock-on impact on living standards.

The UK is only G7 economy where real household disposable income per head hasn’t
recovered to its pre-pandemic levels.

The union body estimates that if real disposable income in the UK had risen in
line with the G7 average since the end of 2019, UK families would be £750 a year
better off.

Years of economic stagnation

The TUC says family budgets have also been shredded by the last 14 years of
stagnating living standards.

Real wages in the UK are still worth less than in 2008.

And separate analysis published by the union body at the end of December
revealed that unsecured debt (credit cards, loans, hire purchase agreements) is
set to rise by £1,400 per household, in real terms, this year. 

Serious economic plan needed

The union body warned that without a “serious” long-term economic plan the UK
faces endless “stagnation and decline.”

The TUC urged the Chancellor to invest in public services and green
infrastructure at the forthcoming Budget to jump-start growth and set living
standards on a positive course over the longer-term.

TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak said:

“People need to be able to spend on their local high streets. 

“But household budgets have been shredded.

“Falling living standards have been both a cause and consequence of poor growth.

“While families in other countries have seen their disposable incomes rise, many
here are struggling to cover even the basics.

“This is bad for households and bad for our economy. Lower spending is
depressing growth and starving our public services of much-needed revenues.”

On the need for an economic reset, Paul added:

“We can’t carry on like this.

“It’s time for a serious long-term economic plan – not sticking-plaster
policies.

“That means a proper industrial strategy and investment in public services and
green infrastructure.

“That’s the best way to revive our economy and sustain growth into the future.”

Editors note

Methodology: OECD data are used up to 2023Q3, the latest quarter with data for
all countries. Turkey is excluded as an outlier from the average for OECD
countries; annual figures are based on annualising the relevant quarters.

The estimated impact on GDP follows directly from the increase in consumer
demand, no allowance is made for likely knock-on effects to business confidence
and investment. 

The number of households is based on the ONS statistics to 2022, projected using
the average growth over the past five years. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/bulletins/familiesandhouseholds/2022

Read the Spring Budget 2024 TUC submission to the Treasury


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