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 * Politics
 * Federal
 * ALP


OPINION


AUSTRALIA’S MULTICULTURAL MELTING POT IS REACHING BOILING POINT FOR LABOR

SHAUN CARNEY

Columnist
November 16, 2023 — 5.00am
November 16, 2023 — 5.00am
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The Muslim vote. The Chinese vote. After decades of multicultural policy and
with the recent historically high immigration intake, the emerging phenomenon of
federal electorates that are ethnically or religiously specific is reshaping our
politics.

Seats with large diasporic communities are deciding elections. Last year, voters
of Chinese origin, offended by Scott Morrison’s regular verbal aggression
towards China, helped hand power to the Labor Party. Three Liberal-held seats
with big Chinese communities – Chisholm, Bennelong, and Reid – swung hard to
Labor, which won office with just a two-seat margin.

Australian society is becoming increasingly more complex and diverse. Dionne
Gain

Now, we’re seeing the potential electoral power of the Muslim vote being
asserted over the Israel-Hamas conflict. This time, the diasporic vote presents
some difficulties for the ALP.

It’s true that in times past, religious and cultural ties have played outsized
roles in important Australian political debates. The Catholic Church and Irish
Australians heavily influenced the outcomes of two highly controversial issues
in the 20th century: the conscription question during World War One, and the
presence of communists in the labour movement in the 1950s. Both debates caused
the Labor Party to split.


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But what’s happening now looks different because of the high concentrations of
new and recent entrants from other countries in specific seats.



Australian society is becoming increasingly more complex and diverse. The 2021
census found that 27.6 per cent of all Australians were born overseas and 48.2
per cent of us have an overseas-born parent. More than 25 per cent of us use a
language other than English at home. In the four years preceding the census, one
million people had emigrated here, and the high migration trend is accelerating,
with Australia on track to accept more than half a million new entrants this
year alone.

This will make it ever more difficult for both major parties to manage the
politics of combustible and highly contested international issues. As we’re
seeing with the conflict in Israel and Gaza, the needle cannot be threaded, with
Palestinian and Jewish groups respectively demanding that the government adopt
their positions in toto. Anything less invites denunciation.

The week began with foreign minister Penny Wong being condemned by leading
Australian Jewish groups for making the unremarkable statement, “We need steps
towards a ceasefire. It cannot be one-sided.” By Wednesday, seven government MPs
were targeted by pro-Palestinian supporters who dumped fake dead bodies outside
their offices.


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Peculiar to this current blow-up is that the political argument is largely about
gestures and language rather than concrete action. The demand from Palestinian
protesters that Anthony Albanese totally denounce Israel, which he’ll never do,
won’t change the fighting in Gaza. But it could hurt Maria Vamvakinou in
Calwell, where 13 per cent of the electorate has Middle Eastern ancestry and her
margin has already been cut by 8 per cent in the past two elections.

In the other direction, Wong daring to use the word “ceasefire” is not going to
make a speck of difference in Israel. But it might cause Josh Burns to lose
Macnamara, which is already highly marginal, and has the highest proportion of
Jewish voters in the country.



It’s close to the point where no statement, no perspective from the government
can be uncontroversial.

Beyond any direct political problems this might cause for the big parties, and
especially in this case the ALP, it doesn’t do much for the wider community’s
ability to understand and debate the issues in a rational way. And it challenges
the long-held expectation that multiculturalism would guarantee greater
tolerance of differing views.

The Israel-Palestinian question has been unresolved for almost 80 years. It is
unbelievably complicated, and what happened on October 7 and every day since has
more than likely pushed resolution further into the distance. It appears that
most Australians look at it that way – as an incredibly saddening and difficult
situation a long way from here. The latest Resolve Political Monitor suggests
that a majority of voters oppose public protests by those on either side of the
dispute. A big majority opposes Australia contributing military equipment, which
must come as a blow to Peter Dutton, who last month recommended offering Israel
military assistance. Dutton’s language is verging on the hysterical and can only
sow further division.

During question time on Wednesday, Dutton addressed the prime minister, saying,
“Therefore, [we] call on the prime minister to one, understand that … his
priority must be the protection of the Australian community at home, cancel his
plans to travel to the United States … [and] urgently convene a national cabinet
meeting to formulate a strong and coherent response to combat the rise of
antisemitism, repair social cohesion and protect community safety.”

As the diasporic vote increases and intensifies in specific geographic
locations, the politics of these issues change, and the views of the wider, less
engaged majority can start to lose their electoral primacy. That’s why ministers
Tony Burke, Jason Clare and Chris Bowen, and Vamvakinou, who hold the seats with
the highest proportion of Middle Eastern voters in the country, will speak with
more empathy about the residents of Gaza. They have to.



Will it make a difference? The easiest thing for the government to do, as a
junior United States ally fully signed up to the AUKUS pact, would be to go all
in with Israel, much as the US has done. But its MPs represent by far the
biggest proportion of Australia’s Muslims, and the electoral power of those
constituents can only grow. Just one more knotty problem for the government to
add to its list.

Shaun Carney is a regular columnist.

The Opinion newsletter is a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion
and inform your own. Sign up here.

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License this article
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SHAUN CARNEY

Shaun Carney is a regular columnist, an author and former associate editor of
The Age.


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