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Democracy Dies in Darkness
Virginia PoliticsLocal newsD.C. politicsMd. politics
Virginia PoliticsLocal newsD.C. politicsMd. politics



FOUR CENTURIES IN, VIRGINIA COULD BE ON TRACK FOR ITS FIRST FEMALE GOVERNOR

The anticipated matchup between Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Lt. Gov. Winsome
Earle-Sears would be a first for Virginia and the nation’s 11th woman vs. woman
contest for governor.

December 1, 2024
8 min

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Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and Rep. Abigail Spanberger
(D-Virginia) are running for governor next year. (Kristen Zeis for The
Washington Post; Robb Hill for The Washington Post)
By Laura Vozzella

RICHMOND — All 74 of Virginia’s elected governors have had one thing in common,
be they slave-owner or civil rights champion, farmer or global business titan,
Pat Robertson pal or man about town.

From Patrick Henry to Glenn Youngkin, each one has been a man. The same goes for
the colonial governors before them.


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That’s on track to change, as two women seem to have cleared the field for next
year’s Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries. Rep. Abigail
Spanberger has had the Democratic contest to herself since her lone competitor
dropped out in April, while Winsome Earle-Sears’s long-anticipated rival for the
GOP nod let it be known this month that he was taking a pass.

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While someone else could still jump into either of the June primaries, politicos
throughout the state and beyond widely expect to see Spanberger and Earle-Sears
atop the ballot on Nov. 4, in a history-making contest for the Old Dominion’s
Executive Mansion.

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“To see two women major-party candidates for a very high-profile governor’s race
is, in and of itself, a big sign of progress in this country,” said Amanda
Hunter, former executive director of the Barbara Lee Family Foundation, which
for 25 years studied women running for executive office on both sides of the
aisle.

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While Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Joyce Craig squared off for New
Hampshire governor this year, it is highly unusual for both major-party
candidates for governor to be women. That has been the case only 10 times in
American history, according to the Center for American Women in Politics (CAWP)
at Rutgers University.

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Spanberger vs. Earle-Sears would be number 11.

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“It is extraordinarily difficult for a woman to be elected as an executive. And
it seems like the best way is when two women run against each other, which is
rare,” said Republican pollster Amanda Iovino, executive director of the
Virginia Conservative Women’s Coalition.

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Over the nation’s history, 49 women have been governor in 32 states. Women hold
that post in a record 12 states. That number will tick up to 14 in January, but
only temporarily by CAWP’s count, as Ayotte takes office in New Hampshire and
Delaware Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long (D) fills a two-week gap between her state’s
outgoing and incoming male governors, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi L. Noem (R)
then steps down to join President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet, as looks likely.

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Women have had a far easier time winning seats in state legislatures and
Congress than executive roles like governorships and the still-elusive
presidency, said CAWP director Debbie Walsh.

“Especially when you’re running for a chief executive position … the question
is, ‘Will this woman be strong enough and tough enough?’” she said. “The
stereotypes about women’s leadership is they do well in committees. Legislative
work fits into that. But being the executive, where the buck stops, is
different.”

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The women running for Virginia governor have résumés that defy those
stereotypes. Spanberger handled and recruited spies overseas as a CIA officer.
Earle-Sears served in the Marines.

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“Both of these women have very nontraditional backgrounds, and I don’t think
that’s accidental,” said Democratic pollster and strategist Celinda Lake. “That
communicates a certain decisiveness, a certain toughness that often women have
trouble conveying.”

At least so far, neither Spanberger nor Earle-Sears has leaned into the
barrier-breaking nature of their quests, which in the lieutenant governor’s case
would be twofold: A Jamaican immigrant, Earle-Sears would be the nation’s first
Black woman governor.

“I could have never believed growing up that I could be asking Virginians for
their faith and confidence in me to serve them as governor of our great
Commonwealth,” Earle-Sears, whose campaign declined to comment for this article,
said at her September campaign kickoff. “Yes, this is an opportunity to make
history, but our campaign is about making life better for every Virginian right
here, right now.”

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Spanberger’s campaign struck a similar note.

“Abigail believes that this campaign, while historic for the Commonwealth, will
ultimately come down to the contrast on the issues between Abigail and her
eventual opponent — as well as the contrast on their approach,” Spanberger
campaign spokesman Connor Joseph said in a written statement to The Washington
Post.

Similarly, Vice President Kamala Harris did not play up the history-making
prospects of her presidential bid — a departure from the way Democrat Hillary
Clinton took aim at what she called that “highest, hardest glass ceiling.”

“We saw Vice President Harris really didn’t talk about gender that much. And it
didn’t mean it wasn’t on voters’ minds,” said Karen Finney, a senior adviser to
Clinton in 2016 and to Democrat Stacey Abrams in her unsuccessful 2018 bid for
Georgia governor. “It will be interesting to see how these two women — they both
have unique elements in their backgrounds — how they present themselves to the
electorate.”

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As lieutenant governor, Earle-Sears is only the second woman elected statewide
in Virginia, behind Mary Sue Terry, who won two races for state attorney general
before stepping down in 1993 to run for governor against Republican George
Allen. Terry’s status as a woman who had never married or had children became an
issue in the campaign, which she eventually lost to Allen in a landslide.

The governor’s mansion should not be a “cold, stone, sterile building … [but] a
home for a man and a woman, where you can hear the laughter of children,” Oliver
North, a staunch conservative notorious for his role in the 1980s Iran-contra
affair, declared as he campaigned for Allen in October 1993. A whisper campaign
about Terry’s sexuality made its way to TV news, with Roanoke’s Channel 10
asking voters on the street whether they would support Terry if she were a
lesbian. (Terry says now, as then, that she’s heterosexual.)

As a young political scientist in 1993, Mark J. Rozell studied news coverage of
the Terry-Allen race for signs of bias. Now dean of George Mason University’s
Schar School of Policy and Government, he sees a big difference in the looming
matchup between Spanberger and Earle-Sears.

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“Nobody is asking the question whether Virginia is ready for a woman to be its
governor,” he said.

The question Rozell hears this time around comes from Democrats still parsing
November’s muddled presidential results. (Trump lost the state by 5.8 points,
but outperformed his 10-point 2020 blowout, with Democratic turnout dipping and
Trump making gains with some minorities.)

“They’re asking whether a politically moderate, bipartisan woman who opposed
Nancy Pelosi [for speaker of the House] is going to drive up the enthusiasm of
the progressive wing of the party,” he said, referring to Spanberger. “That’s
their worry, not [her] gender.”

Terry thinks the climate for women running for governor — and president, for
that matter — has come a long way since her race, even after a White House
contest that improbably focused at times on “childless cat ladies” and Arnold
Palmer’s genitalia.

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“Times have changed and changed for the better,” Terry said. She thinks there is
less “overt sexism” today — though “still people who aren’t as comfortable with
a woman [for chief executive] as they might be as with a man. … It will be
interesting to see how that plays out with the two women.”

Woman vs. woman races are no guarantee that gender bias is off the table,
according to research the Barbara Lee Family Foundation conducted with Lake.

“We always assumed if we had two women running, it would cancel out gender bias.
We actually found it would amplify gender bias in some categories,” said Hunter,
the former executive director of the foundation, which is closing its doors.

Even in races between women, female candidates face outsize scrutiny of their
hair, wardrobe and tone of voice, the research found. Women must demonstrate
competence and likability to voters, who will settle for competence alone from
male office-seekers. Women also pay a higher price with voters for “going
negative” against opponents, leading some female candidates to let outside
groups deliver those blows.

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Voters “still hold women to a higher standard than men — even with no men in the
race,” reads a 2022 foundation report, “Shared Hurdles: How Political Races
Change When Two Women Compete.”

Yet for those who would like to see more women in executive office, woman vs.
woman races have one undisputed upside: “A woman has to win,” notes Lake, who
has begun working on a book with Finney and Iovino about what it will take to
elect a female president.

“In those places where it’s hard to break in … having women-women races is a
great way to break through this glass ceiling,” Lake said. “Honestly, I think
this is one of the major strategies to get a woman elected president in 2028.”

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243 Comments
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