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"Dynamite! Hands-down, no-contest, the best

study of advanced biofuels ever authored.

Essential reading for any serious venture

in the field." - The Daily Digest



Distilled from hundreds of techno-economic analyses, market analyses, technology
reports, policy outlooks: concise, visual, packed with insight on every page.




Which technologies will succeed?

Where are markets headed?

When are the inflection points?

How will molecules and markets differentiate themselves?

Who has the competitive edge?

What volumes will be produced, and why?

THE DEFINITIVE MARKET GUIDE

COMPANIES, APPS, TECHNOLOGY, MARKETS







A STUDY LIKE NO OTHER

RENEWABLE DIESEL AND SAF VOLUMES, TECH, FEEDSTOCKS, PLAYERS THROUGH 2030

Renewable Diesel & SAF 2030 provides detailed case studies and analysis of the
key producers and developers participating in the development of more than 29
renewable diesel projects in the USA, 5 in Canada, 18 in Europe, 11 in Asia, and
2 in South America (ps chapters 4-6, Producers, for a comprehensive list of
renewable diesel refineries, production capacities, locations, feedstocks,
partnerships, and timelines).




The Renewable Diesel & SAF 2030 study includes a comprehensive analysis of
renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) producers, and provides a
forward looking set of forecasts for market growth, feedstock initiatives,
technology deployment for renewable diesel & SAF from the year 2021 to 2030.




The Renewable Diesel & SAF 2030 study provides a growing number of case studies
of companies that have dedicated joint venture partnerships for (upstream)
feedstocks and (downstream) offtake agreements.




The Renewable Diesel & SAF study also includes a comprehensive review of many
unconventional feed stocks now in production, construction, or development,
including:




 * Renewable hydrogen (Louisiana Green Fuels, Aemetis, Gevo, Gron-Fidelis)
 * Renewable carbon from BTL (Biomass to Liquids facilities, ethanol refineries)
 * Forestry tree oil (St1, UPM, Neste),
 * Crude tall oil (Fintoil, Finland) and raw tall oil (Preem, Sweden),
 * Pongamia (Omega Green Paraguay),
 * Castor oil (Eni Italy),
 * Specialty camelina (Global Clean Energy-Exxon California),
 * Specialty carinata (multiple airlines),
 * Purpose grown pennycress (REG),
 * Municipal solid waste (Fulcrum),
 * Distiller’s corn oil with Darling and Valero JV Diamond Green Diesel, East
   Kansas Agri-Energy, and several others),
 * Forestry products (Louisiana Green Fuels),
 * sawdust, plastics, tires, MSW, construction debris (Cielo Energy in Canada)
 * Circular feedstocks (palm waste and UCO at Neste, Singapore refinery), and
 * Smaller, non-commodity traded, feed stocks and specialty markets with higher
   values.




The study also focuses on Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) in detail, providing
case studies of producers and the low-carbon feedstocks, technology pathways,
partnerships, investors, and off-takers




Key finding from the Renewable Diesel & SAF 2030 study: larger-scale renewable
diesel retrofits of petroleum refineries are now being accompanied by the
emergence of smaller scale, localized, sustainable aviation refineries. .



PURCHASE AND DOWNLOAD

Renewable Diesel & SAF 2030

Threading through the opportunities in advanced biofuels is like a minefield —
opportunity abounds, but danger lurks. Policymakers, financiers, suppliers — all
sensing the opportunity, but exactly where is it? How much? How soon? With whom,
and where? This is the definitive look at heavy-duty renewable fuels in the next
decade. Distilled from hundreds of techno-economic analyses, market analyses,
technology reports, policy outlooks. Includes the Complete Study and a 90-minute
audio narrative from Will Thurmond.



$2950.00

Add to cart



 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. GLOBAL DEMAND DRIVERS FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL 

1.1 New GHG and Low-Carbon Fuels Regulations Bring New Opportunities

1.1.1. Clean Cities Transport Initiative Opportunities in U.S., Europe,
Americas, Asia

1.1.2. Sustainable Aviation Initiatives for CORSIA (U.N.) Program

1.1.3. Sustainable Shipping Initiatives for IMO (U.N.) 2020 Regulations

1.1.4. Feedstock Opportunities to Produce Low-Carbon Fuels for Emerging Markets
like California

1.2 Low Carbon Fuel Regulations Bring Disruptive Challenges, Opportunities to
Producers

1.2.1 Change and Transition from 2020 Targets to 2030 COP26 GHG Targets

1.2.2 New GHG Targets Bring Opportunities for Bio/Renewable Diesel (California,
EU, Canada)

1.2.3 New GHG Targets Bring Challenges to 1st Generation Biodiesel Producers
(Soy, Palm)

1.2.4 New GHG Regulations Bring Opportunities to Refiners, Blenders, Obligated
Parties

 

2. SUMMARY OF GLOBAL RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCTION

2.1 Review of Renewable Diesel and SAF Demand Projections

2.2 Analysis of Global Renewable Diesel Production by Region, Location and
Capacity

2.3 Top 10 Global Renewable Diesel Producers – by Production Volumes

2.4 Existing Global Renewable Diesel Producers by Capacity, MT, Gallons,
Location, 2021

2.5 Planned Global Renewable Diesel Expansions by Capacity, MT, Gallons,
Location, 2021

2.6 New Renewable Diesel Plants Under Construction by Capacity, Gallons,
Location, 2021

 

3. EUROPE: DEMAND DRIVERS

3.1 Renewable Energy (RED2) Directives and Targets 2020 to 2030, by Country

3.2 Current EU Renewable Diesel Production Based on COP21 Targets for GHG to
2030

3.3 Market Size and Share of European Renewable Diesel Production by Project

3.4 Rapid Expansion of Europe Renewable Diesel (HVO) Production 2011-2021

 

4. EUROPE: CASE STUDIES OF RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCERS, AND REFINERIES, BY
COUNTRY

Each producer site case study includes: Start Up Date, Location, Status,
Production Capacity, Feedstocks, Technology Partners, Expansion Plans




4.1 DENMARK

Neste (Rotterdam, RD/SAF, 345mgy or 1.15 million MT, 2021 Expansion to 2 million
MT)




4.2 FINLAND

Neste (Finland, RD/SAF, 270mgy or 440k MT, 2021 Expansion)

UPM BioVerno (RD/SAF, 35mgy or 100k MT, Feedstock: tall Crude Oil, Lappeenranta,
2021: operating)

UPM (Kotka, RD/SAF. 137mgy or 300k MT, Feedstock: Tall Crude Oil, 2021: planning
for 2025 production)

ST.1 Finland (RD/SAF, 55mgy or 200k MT, waste oils, 2021 :operating)




4.3 ITALY

ENI Venice (165mgy or 350k MT, RD/SAF w UOP tech, 2021 expanding to 600k MT)

ENI Sicily (Gela Plant Expansion, RD/SAF w UOP tech, 206mgy or 600k MT, 2021
operating)




4.4 FRANCE

Total LaMede (RD/SAF, 150mgy or 500k MT, waste and plant oils, La Mede, 2021
operating)

Total Grandpuits (RD/SAF/Naptha, 93mgy or 400k MT, waste and plant oils,
Paris/Seine, 2021 announced)




4.5 SWEDEN

Preem Gothenburg (RD, 250mgy, FOGs, 2021 Operating)

Preem, Sunpine (Gothenburg, HTopsoe, 16,000bpd)

Preem Setra (RD, 8mgy, Woody Biomass, 2021 Construction)




4.6 NETHERLANDS

Empyro Hengelo (5mgy, RD/SAF, Upgraded Pyrolysis Oils, Hengelo, Neth, Operating
2021)

SkyNRG (28mgy, SAF, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 2021 planning)




4.7 UNITED KINGDOM

Philips 66 Humber (RD/SAF, 46mgy, Humber, England, 2024 expansion to 80mgy)




4.8 SPAIN

Repsol (2021: under construction, 2023: opening at 250MT, 2030: expansion to
600MT)

Cepsa




4.9 PORTUGAL

Galp




4.10 POLAND

PKN Orlen (300k MT/yr, 2021: under construction, 2025: plans to open)

 

5. USA: DEMAND DRIVERS, LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARDS

5.1 U.S. National Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Program and Targets 2005-2022

5.2 California Low Carbon Fuel Standard 2012-2030. Target = 20% by 2030

5.3. Oregon Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 10% by 2025, TBD by 2030

5.4 Washington Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 8.5% by 2030

5.5 British Columbia Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 20% by 2030

5.6 Neighboring Canada’s Expected Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 12.9% by
2030

5.7 US States with Volumetric Targets (Minnesota, Iowa, Texas, etc)

 

6. USA: CASE STUDIES OF RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCERS




Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2030, Vol 2. provides detailed
case studies and analysis of the key producers and developers participating in
the development of more than 29 renewable diesel projects in North America, 5 in
Canada, 18 in Europe, 11 in Asia, and 2 in South America.

Each producer case study includes: Start Up Date, Location, Status, Production
Capacity, Feedstocks, Technology Partners, Expansion Plans

6.1 Diamond Green Diesel (Valero/Darling w UOP tech, 675mgy, Norco, Louisiana,
US, 2021 Expansion)

6.2 REG Geismar (75mgy operating 2021, Louisiana, US, 2021 Expansion to 340mgy)

6.3 World Energy (RD/SAF, operating, w expansion to 360mgy in 2022, Los Angeles,
US)

6.4 Emerald Biofuels (w UOP Tech, 110mgy, Port Arthur, Texas, US, 2021 planning)

6.5 Kern Oil and Refining (California, USA)

6.6 BP Cherry Point (RD/SAF from waste FOG, 42mgy, Birch Bay, Washington, op in
2021)

6.7 Ryze Renewables Las Vegas (RD/SAF, 168mgy, Las Vegas, Nevada, 2021 planning)

6.8 Ryze Renewables Reno (RD/SAF, 168mgy, Las Vegas, Nevada, 2021 planning)

6.9 NEXT Renewable Fuels (RD/SAF, 765mgy, Port of Columbia, Oregon, 2021
planning)

6.10 Marathon (RD/SAF, 183 million gallons/yr, Dickinson, North Dakota, 2021
conversion)

6.11 Holly Frontier Cheyenne (RD, 200 million gallons/yr, Cheyenne, Wyoming,
2021 conversion)

6.12 Global Clean Energy – Exxon (125mgy, 7500 to 15,000 bpd, Bakersfield,
California, 2021 conversion)

6.13 Philips 66 Rodeo (RD/SAF, 800mgy, Rodeo, California w Worley, 2021
planning)

6.14 Wyoming Renewable Diesel

6.15 CVR Energy (Wynnewood, Oklahoma Q3 2021)

6.16 St Joseph Renewable Fuels (RD/Naptha, 90mgy, Waste Oils, Illinois. 2021
planning)

6.17 Diamond Green Diesel – Port Arthur (Valero/Darling wUOPtech, 470mgy, Texas.
2021 construction)

6.18 East Kansas Agri-Energy (RD, 5mgy, DCO oil, Nextchem/Saola tech, Garnett,
Kansas, 2021 operating)

6.19 Aemetis Carbon Zero 1 Project (RD/SAF/RNG/CCS, 45mgy, Riverbank,
California, 2021 construction)

6.20 Gevo: Net Zero 1 (RD/SAF/RNG/Feed, 45mgy, California, est. 4Q 2021)

6.21 Seabord Energy (former Abengoa, 6500bpd/85mgy, Hugoton, Kansas, est. Dec.
2021)

6.22 Heartwell Renewables (Love’s-Musket-Trillium/Cargill, Tallow, 80mgy,
Nebraska)

6.23 Gron Fuels (w/Koch, 900 million gallons/year, Port Charles in Baton-Rouge,
Louisiana, 2021 planning)

6.24 Calumet (Great Falls Refinery (10 to 12,000bpd, Great Falls, Montana est
2022)




6.3 CANADA

LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARDS & PROGRAMS

6.3.1 Canada’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard Target = 12.9% by 2030

6.3.2 British Columbia Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 20% by 2030




RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCERS AND CASE STUDIES

6.3.3 Covenant Energy (RD/SAF. 6500bpd, 300mliters/yr, Canola, Saskatchewan, est
2023)

6.3.4 Tidewater (3000bpd w HTopsoe, Prince Georges refinery, British Columbia,
est 2022+)

6.3.5 Cielo Alberta (RD, 30mgy, Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada, 2021 planning)

6.3.6 Ensyn Ontario (3mgy, Renewable Crude and Diesel from Pyrolysis, 2021
operating)

6.3.7 Ensyn Cote Du Nord Quebec (10mgy, Renewable Crude and Diesel, Pyrolysis,
2021 construction)




6.4 SOUTH AMERICA

6.4.1 PARAGUAY

Omega Green (RD/SAF, 400mgy, BSBios/Paraguay, $800million est, 2024 Startup)




6.4.3 BOLIVIA

Government/Bolivian Fiscal Oil Fields(YPFB) Partnership,

Guillermo Elder Bell refinery ($250million, 9,000bpd or 3 million barrels/yr)




6.4 ASIA

6.4.1 SINGAPORE

Neste (RD/SAF, 2020: 675 mgy or 1.3 million MT/yr, 2025 expansion to 2.7 million
MT/yr)




6.4.2 INDONESIA

Pertamina Plaju refinery (RD/SAF w UOP, 307 mgy or 20,000bpd, plant oils, 2023
startup)

Cilacap Refinery (RD/SAF w UOP, 92mgy or 6,000bpd, 2022 announcement)




6.4.3 CHINA

Total (120k MT/yr, new project)

Eco Biochemical (120k MT/yr, 2021: operating)

Hunanyu (120k MT/yr, 2021: operating)

Changyou Bioenergy (200k MT/yr, 2021: operating)

Yangzou Jianyuan (100k MT/yr, 2021: operating)

 

7. FEEDSTOCKS USED IN RENEWABLE DIESEL & SAF PRODUCTION

Each feedstock section Includes an Introduction, Markets, Consumption, Outlook,
and Examples in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.1 First Generation Vegetable Oils

Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook

Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.1.1 Soybean Oil

7.1.2 Rapeseed Oil

7.1.3 Palm Oil

7.1.4 Canola Oil

7.1.5 Sunflower Oil

7.2 Second Generation Waste-Based F.O.G.s, Fats, Oils and Greases

7.2.1 Used Cooking Oil / Yellow Grease

7.2.2 Poultry Fat

7.2.3 Beef Tallow

7.2.4 Pork – White Grease

7.2.5 Brown Grease

7.2.6 Trap Grease

7.3 Third Generation Energy Crops From Non-Food Sources

7.3.1 DCO – Distiller’s Corn Oil

7.3.2 Rotational Crops: Carinata, Camelina, Pennycress

7.3.3 Tall Oils from Forestry

7.3.4 Pongamia

7.3.5 Castor

7.3.6 Tobacco Oils

7.3.7 Hemp

7.3.8 Winter Oilseeds

7.3.9 Jatropha

7.3.10 Aquatic Oils: Algae, Seaweed, Halophytes, Salicornia

7.4 Circular Feedstocks from Waste Based Forestry and Agricultural Residues

7.4.1 Wood and Forestry Residues

7.4.2 Sawmill Residues and Sawdust

7.4.3 Municipal Solid Waste

7.4.4 Bagasse

7.4.5 Corn Stover

7.4.6 Rice Husks

7.4.7 Almond and Nut Shells

 

8. TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODELS FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL AND SAF




8.1 Up-Grading Next Gen Feedstocks (Wood, Ag Residues, Waste)

8.2 Fischer-Tropsch Commercial Level Producers of Bio-Crude/Syncrude
Intermediates for Processing

8.3 Pyrolysis Commercial Level Producers of Bio-Crude/Syncrude Intermediates for
Processing

8.4 Hydro-Thermal Liquefication Demonstration Level Producers

8.5 Technology Providers and Producers of Intermediates (Biocrude, ATJ) for
Up-Grading into Renewable Diesel & Jet Fuel via Fischer-Tropsch, Pyrolysis, ATJ,
and other TRL Level 5+ Players

8.6 Examples of Biocrude & Syncrude Intermediate Up-Grading to Renewable Diesel
and SAF

8.6.1 Fischer-Tropsch Gasification (FT) examples from Velocys, Fulcrum, RedRock

8.6.2 Hydro-Thermal Liquefication (HTL) examples from ReadiFuels/ARA

8.6.3 ATJ Alcohol To Jet (ATJ) process examples via Dehydration, Hydrotreating,
Isomerization, Refining from Lanzatech, Gevo, Byogy, Vertimass

 

9. SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS




9.1 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION MARKETS




9.1.1 Global Policies and Targets – U.N. and C.O.R.S.I.A

9.1.2 Regional Aviation Policies and Targets – EU RED2

9.1.3 National Aviation Policies and Targets -US RFS, Canada CFS, C.O.R.S.I.A’s
member countries & targets

9.1.4 Key Organizations in Sustainable Aviation




9.2 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION PRODUCERS, PROJECTS & VOLUMES TO 2025




9.2.1 World Energy, Paramount, 25 Million Gallons/Year in 2020

9.2.2 Neste, Porvoo, 34 Million Gallons/Year in 2020

9.2.3 Gevo, Silsbee, Texas, Demonstration Project in 2020

9.2.4 Total, La Mede, France, SAF Demonstration & Production in 2020

9.2.5 Fulcrum, Sierra, Nevada, 7 Million Gallons/Year in 2021

9.2.6 RedRock, Lakeview, Colorade, 6 Million Gallons/Year in 2021

9.2.7 Neste, Singapore & Rotterdam, 481 Million Gallons/Year in 2022-23

9.2.8 SkyNRG, Delfzijl, 33 Million Gallons/Year in 2022

9.2.9 GoSunshine, New Orleans, 29 Million Gallons/Year in 2022

9.2.10 Fulcrum, Gary, Indiana, 21 Million Gallons/Year in 2023

9.2.11 ReadiFuels, 2 Locations, 24 Million Gallons/Year in 2023

9.2.12 Preem, Gothenburg, Sweden 70 Million Gallons/Year in 2024

9.2.13 Lanzatech, Four Locations in Production, 100 Million Gallons/Year in 2024

9.2.14 Velocycs, Immingham, England, 20 Million Gallons/Year in 2025

 

9.3 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS




9.3.1 Sustainable Aviation Goals and Targets by Country, Organization, Timeline

9.3.2 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Demand Forecast From 2015 to 2055 based on IEA,
ICAO

9.3.3 Estimated EU Bio-Based Aviation Fuel Production 2017-2025 at 15% Blend
Rates

9.3.4 Investment Risk Outlook & Volume of Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2015 to
2030 to 2050

9.3.5 De-Risking Start Up CAPEX & OPEX Costs With Low Cost Feedstocks &
Long-Term Partnerships

 

10. RENEWABLE DIESEL OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS TO 2030




10.1 Short Term Forecasts to 2022, Reviews and Outlook

10.2 Medium Term Forecasts to 2025, Reviews and Outlook

10.3 Long term Forecasts to 2030, Reviews and Outlook






TABLES, CHARTS, MAPS, GRAPHS

CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL MARKET DEMAND AND PRODUCTION OF RENEWABLE DIESEL




Roadmap: Renewable Diesel and SAF Demand Projections 2015-2055 in MT

Map of Global Renewable Diesel Production By Producer, Region, Location and
Capacity 2021

Chart: Global Renewable Diesel Producer Comparison by Production Volumes Top 10
Producers 2021

Table: Current Global Renewable Diesel Producer by Capacity, MT, Gallons, and
Location, 2021

Table: Planned Global Renewable Diesel Expansion by Capacity, MT, Gallons, and
Location, 2021

Table: New Renewable Diesel Plants Under Construction by Capacity, MT, Gallons,
Location, 2011




EUROPE




EU Renewable Energy (RED2) Directives and Targets 2020 to 2030, by Country

EU Renewable Diesel Production Volumes Based on COP21

Targets for GHG Emission Savings to 2030 Pie Chart: Europe Renewable Diesel
Production by Project, Million Liters Per Year Capacity

Time Series Chart: Europe Renewable Diesel (HVO) Production and Production
Capacity 2011-2020

Chart: Europe Renewable Diesel Production By Country 2009-2019, Netherlands,
Finland, Italy, France

Chart: Worldwide Renewable Diesel (HVO) Production Capacity and Biodiesel Market
Share 2007-2025

Producer Case Study: Neste, Finland, Renewable Diesel Plant in Porvoo,
Feedstocks, Technology, Capacity, Co Products, Startup, Expansion

Producer Case Study: Neste, Porvoo Refinery Technology Overview of Hydrogen
Production Plant and Hydrocracker Units at Porvoo, Including Technology Types,
Suppliers, Partners, CAPEX and Capacity

Producer Case Study: UPM, Finland, Lappeenranta Refinery, Feedstocks from Tall
Oil and Wood Residues, Hydrotreating and Distillation Technology for Tall Oil,
Capacity, Start Up Date, Offtake

Producer Case Study: ENi, Italy, Renewable Diesel Plant in Venice, Feedstock Use
in MT, UOP/ENI Technology, Capacity, Co Products (Green Diesel, Naptha, LPT, Jet
Fuel), Startup, Expansion Plans

Producer Case Study: ENi, Italy, Renewable Diesel Plant in Gela, Feedstock Use
in MT, UOP/Eni Technology, Capacity, Co Products (Green Diesel, Naptha, LPT, Jet
Fuel), Startup, Expansion Plans

Producer Case Study: Total, France, Renewable Diesel Plant in La Mede, Feedstock
Use by Type in MT, Technology Partners, Capacity and Expansion, Co Products,
Startup Date, Expansion Plans

Table: EU RED2 & CORSIA Analysis of Renewable Diesel Technologies by Type,
Feedstocks Used, GHG Emissions Score/Rating % for Each Technology and Feedstock
(FT, HVO, HEFA, SIP, ATJ)

EU Forecast 2021-2030: RED2 Targets for Renewable Diesel & Aviation Fuel
Production in MT by Maximum Shares from 1st Gen, 2nd Gen, and Advanced
Fuels/Feedstocks (Annexes IX Part A & B)







CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL MARKETS FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL FUELS PRODUCTION & CO-PROCESSING
USA




USA Biomass-Based Biodiesel Targets, EPA Final Renewable Fuel Volume
Requirements in Billion Gallons, by Year, for Biomass Based Diesel, Advanced
Biofuels, and Renewable Fuel

Table: USA Biomass Based Diesel Growth Over Time, Million Gallons/Yr, Final
Volume Standards

Chart: US Renewable Diesel Production Volumes in Million Gallons Per Year
2010-2020

Table: Current U.S. Renewable Diesel Producers by Capacity, MT, Gallons, and
Location, 2021

Producer Case Study: Diamond Green Diesel, Renewable Diesel Plant in Louisiana,
Feedstocks, Technology, Capacity, Co Products, Startup, Expansion Plans, Offtake
Partners

Producer Case Study: REG, Renewable Diesel Plant in Louisiana, Feedstocks,
Technology, Capacity, Co Products, Startup, Expansion Plans, Offtake Partners

Producer Case Study: World Energy (AltAir), Biojet & Renewable Diesel Plant in
California,, Feedstocks, Technology Partners, Production Capacity, Co Products,
Startup, Expansion Plans, Offtake Partners




CALIFORNIA

Chart: California LCFS Renewable Diesel Growth Acceleration from 2012-2021, in
Million Gallons

Chart: California LCFS Renewable Diesel Supply from 2012-2021, in Million
Gallons

Chart: California LCFS Renewable Diesel & Biodiesel Production Volumes
2011-2021, Million Gallons

Chart: California LCFS Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel Production 2011-2019 by
Crops and Residues Used w Credits (in Million MT) for Soy, Canola, Fish Oil,
Distillers Corn Oil, Tallow, Used Cooking Oil

Chart: California Annual Diesel Demand Forecast: 2020-2030 by Biodiesel,
Renewable Diesel, Petroleum Diesel, in Millions of Gallons, Based on Governor
Newsom's New Targets




CANADA

Canada's Renewable Diesel Mandates by Target Volumes and GHG Reduction in Carbon
Intensity

Canada's Renewable Diesel Mandates, By Province, British Colombia, Alberta,
Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, by Target Volumes
and GHG Reduction in Carbon Intensity

Canada's Clean Fuel Standard, Current Timeline of Regulatory Plans from
2018-2023 by Liquid Fuel Stream, Solid and Gaseus Fuel Stream Requirements, LCA
Model, and Carbon Intensity

Values

Chart: Canada's Renewable Diesel & Biodiesel Consumption 2011-2021, in Million
Metric Tons Year

Chart: Consumption of Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel in Canada By Feedstock,
2010-2019, in Million Liters and GHG % Avoided in Mt CO2 by: Canola, Soy,
Tallow, Yellow Grease, Palm, Rapeseed




NEXT GENERATION FEEDSTOCKS AND TECHNOLOGIES FOR CO-PROCESSING




Table: What's Next in Renewable Diesel and Jet Fuel Blending? HEFA & FT Process
Technologies For Sustainable Feedstocks by Pathway, Process, Producers, Date of
Approval by Tech, and Blending Limit

Graph: Global Feedstocks for Renewable Diesel and Sustainable Jet Fuel
Co-Processing, including Residues, Waste, Energy Crops, MSW, Forest Residues,
Agricultural Residues, Organic Waste Streams

Table: Examples of Co Processing of Syncrude/Green Crude by Company, Location,
Feedstock, Conversion Pathway by HEFA & Fischer Tropsch and Annual Capacity by
Producer in Million Gal/Yr

Graph: Example of Refinery Co-Processing Crude Oil and Renewable Green Crude Oil
into Renewable Diesel and Gasoline, Leveraging Existing Refinery Infrastructure
for CAPEX, OPEX Advantages

Graph: Example of Production of Green/Syncrude for Co-Processing, by Feedstock
Pre-Treatment, Fischer-Tropch Gasification of Sustainable Feedstocks to
Syncrude, and Co-Processing Syncrude via Hydtrotreating and Hydro-Cracking into
Renewable Diesel, Sustainable Aviation Fuel, and Co-products




Graphs: Examples of Co-Processing Green/Syncrude by Velosys, Ensyn, ARA Chevron
Lummus Global




SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS

Chart: Commercial Flights Operated on Sustainable Aviation Fuel Since 2008, in
Hundred Thousands

Map: Regular Commercial Sustainable Aviation Fuel Flights Taking Off From 5
Airports

Table: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Offtake Agreements by Producer, Partner,
Airline, Agreement, Volumes

Table: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Agreements by Producer, Purchaser, Offtake
Production per Year, Date

Graph: Early Stage SAF Partnership Initiatives by Stakeholder Group, Projects
Producers, Airlines

SAF Case Study: World Energy/Alt-Air and United Airlines Commercial Partnership
by Date, Million Gallons, Blend Ratio, CO2 Reduction, Thousands of Flights, Job
Creation

SAF Case Study: Neste-Lufthansa Commercial Partnership by Date, Million Gallons,
Blend Ratio, CO2 Reduction, Thousands of Flights

SAF Case Study: Neste Air Cooperation With Leading Aviation Brands, including
Lufthansa, Boeing, KLM, SAS, American Airlines, Alaska Airlines, UPS, DFW & SFO
Airports, Air BP

SAF Case Study: Gevo Commercial Partnerships by Date, Million Gallons,
Production Facilities for IsoButanol and ATJ, and Jet Fuel Production
Partnerships for Alaska Airlines and Lufthansa Airlines

SAF Case Study: Fulcrum Commercial Partnerships With United Airlines and BP Air
by Date, Feedstock Supply Chain, Biocrude Production, Co-Processing, and Offtake
Agreement with BP Air

SAF Case Study: Red Rock Biofuels Supply Chain Partnerships With TSS, Flour,
PPE, Wood Group, Velocys, Haldor Topsoe, TCG, and Ten Year Offtake Agreements
with Southwest Airways and FedEx

SAF Case Study: Licella SAFProduction Partnerships and Offtake for Quantas and
Virgin Australia

 

BIOFUELS FOR SHIPPING - IMO 2020 OPPORTUNITIES FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL




Chart: IMO Analysis of Nitrogen (Nox) Emission Limits in NoX Emission Control
Areas, Tiers 1-III Chart: IMO Targets Requiring Shipping to Cut GHG CO2
Emissions 50% by 2050 in Tons, 2008 & 2050

Chart: IMO Fuels Measured by Type of Fuel (Diesel, Gas Oil, Light Fuel Oil,
Heavy Fuel Oil, Liquefied Petroleum Gas, Liquified Natural Gas, Methanol and
Ethanol), and Carbon Content (t-Co2/t-Fuel)

Table: Benefits of Drop In Renewable Diesel Fuels Supplies vs LNG Supplies and
Scrubbers to Meet IMO Shipping Regulations for Sox, Nox, and CO2 Greenhouse Gas
Emissions

Chart: Market Projections for Marine Fuels Volumes Comparing Biofuels to LNG by
MT/yr, 2020-2030




REVIEW OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC STUDIES (CAPEX & OPEX ESTIMATES) OF RENEWABLE DIESEL
AND SAF TECHNOLOGIES , FEEDSTOCKS




Table: OPEX / Production Costs of SAF Fuels by Technology (HEFA, FT, ATJ) and
Feedstock (Used Cooking Oil, Yellow Grease, Tallow, Soy Oil, Palm Oil, Camelina
Oil, Corn Stover, Switch Grass, Wood, Sugarcane, Lignocellulose) Cost of
Production in $ per Liter - Minimum Selling Price

Table: OPEX Production Costs of Sustainable Aviation Fuels from Various
Pathways, including ATJ (Ethanol, n-Butanol, Iso-Butanol, Methanol), OTJ
(Pyrolysis, CH, HRJ of Bio-Crude Oils), GTJ (FT, CTL, CBTL, Gas Fermentation) of
Syngas to Hydrocarbons and Ethanol, STJ (Catalytic Conversion of Sugars via ARP
and HMF Pathways) of Syngas to Ethanol, DMF and HMF, Fatty Acids and Farnesene -
Intermediate Costs in $/Gallon and Final Jet Fuel Costs/OPEX in $/Gallon

Table: OPEX Cost of SAF by Technology Pathways - HDO of Camelina,
Gasification-FT (Corn Stover, Switch Grass, Algae), HDO and Advanced
Fermentation (Pongamia, Sugarcane Molasses, Alga, Corn Grain, Switchgrass) and
HDO (Wasted Oil, Tallow, Soybean Oil) - Prices in US $/Liter







FEEDSTOCK MARKETS, PRODUCTION AND FORECASTS




Short Term Outlook - Where Will We Get the Feedstocks and The Fuels?

Illustration of Harvest of Oilseeds by Continent, Estimated, in Million Tons -
North America, S. America, Europe, Africa, Asia

Short Term Outlook: Current Production of Oilseed Crops, Total and Worldwide,
Estimated in Million Tons, 2003-2019 by Feedstock Type (Palm, Sunflower,
Rapeseed, Soybeans) for Total Global Oilseed Production

Mid Term Outlook - Food Production Increases With World Population, Supply of
Grain and Vegetable Oils, Estimated by Continent in KG Per Capita, North
America, S. America, Europe, Africa, Asia, Oceania

LongTerm Outlook: Oilseed Harvests Growing Steadily, Harvests of Oilseeds by
Continent, Estimated in Million Tons for North America, South America, Europe,
Africa, Asia and Oceana




REVIEW OF FORECASTS - SHORT TERM, MID TERM, AND LONG-TERM OUTLOOKS




Short Term Outlook: Supply and Demand Imbalances Between Advanced Biodiesel and
Renewable Diesel

Mandates for Low Carbon Markets in U.S. & E.U., Canada: Market Pull for Lower
Cost Suppliers / Exporters in Emerging Markets

Medium Term Outlook: Transition from 2020 Volumetric Targets to 2030 LCFS and
COP21 GHG Targets Increases Market Demand for Several Lower-Carbon Fuels,
Feedstocks, Process Technologies

Long Term Outlook: Commercialization of (1) Low Carbon Feedstocks and (2)
Process Technologies to Meet (3) Estimated Low-Carbon Renewable Diesel and SAF
Demands From 2030 to 2050



RENEWABLE DIESEL & SAF

PRODUCER STUDIES

Diamond Green Diesel, Louisiana

REG Geismar, Louisiana

World Energy, Los Angeles,

Emerald Biofuels Port Arthur, Texas

Kern Oil and Refining California,

BP Cherry Point, Birch Bay, Washington

Ryze Renewables Las Vegas

Ryze Renewables Reno

NEXT Renewable Fuels

Marathon, Dickinson, North Dakota

Holly Fron􀆟er, Cheyenne ,Wyoming

Global Clean Energy - Exxon California,

Philips 66 ,Rodeo, California

Wyoming Renewable Diesel

CVR EnergY, Wynnewood, Oklahoma

St Joseph Renewable Fuels Illinois

Diamond Green Diesel, Port Arthur Texas

East Kansas Agri-Energy , Garne􀆩, Kansas

Aeme􀆟s Carbon Zero 1 Project, California

Gevo: Net Zero 1, California

Seabord Energy, Hugoton, Kansas

Heartwell Renewables, Nebraska

Gron Fuels, Baton-Rouge, Louisiana

Calumet Great Falls Refinery, Montana

Neste, Ro􀆩erdam, Netherlands

Neste, Finland

UPM BioVerno, Finland

UPM Kotka, Finland

ST.1 Finland

ENI Venice, Italy

ENI Sicily, Italy

Total LaMede, France

Total Grandpuits, France

Preem Gothenburg, Sweden

Preem, Sunpine, Sweden

Preem Setra, Sweden

Empyro Hengelo, Netherlands

SkyNRG,Amsterdam, Netherlands

Philips 66 Humber, UK

Repsol, Spain

Cepsa, Spain

Galp, Portugal

PKN Orlen, Portugal

Covenant Energy, Saskatchewan, Canada

Tidewater, Bri􀆟sh Columbia, Canada

Cielo Alberta, Canada

Ensyn Ontario, Canada

Ensyn Cote Du Nord Quebec, Canada

Omega Green, Paraguay

Bolivian Fiscal Oil Fields(YPFB) Partnership

Neste, Singapore

Pertamina Plaju, Indonesia

Cilacap Refinery, Indonesia

Total, China

Eco Biochemical, China

Hunanyu , China

Changyou Bioenergy, China

Yangzou Jianyuan, China




SUSTAINABLE AVIATION PRODUCER STUDIES

World Energy

SkyNRG

Red Rock Biofuels

Gevo

Velocys

Lanzatech

Fulcrum

Neste Air

Byogy

Vertimass



FEEDSTOCKS REVIEWED

FEEDSTOCKS IN RENEWABLE DIESEL & SAF PRODUCTION, DEMOS




1st Gen: Soybean, Rapeseed,Palm, Canola, Sunflower




Circular Feedstocks: Used Cooking Oil, Yellow Grease, Poultry Fat,Beef Tallow,
White Grease,

Brown Grease, Trap Grease, Dis􀆟ller’s Corn Oil




Circular, Rotational Crops: Carinata, Pennycress




Energy Crops: Tall Oils, Pongamia, Castor, Tobacco Oils, Hemp, Winter Oilseeds,
Jatropha




Circular Feedstocks from Ag Waste and Residues: Bagasse, Corn Stover, Rice
Husks, Almond and Nut Shells




Circular Feedstocks from Wood and Forestry Residues,Sawmill Residues and
Sawdust, Municipal Solid Waste




Aquatic Oils: Algae, Seaweed, Halophytes, Salicornia



ABOUT THE AUTHOR

CEO, Emerging Markets Online

Will Thurmond is the CEO of Emerging Markets Online and has been consulting
utilities, oil and gas companies, and biofuels organizations for 25+ yrs. He has
authored several studies on biofuels (Biodiesel 2020, in 2008), (Algae 2020, in
2012), (Drop-In Fuels 2020, in 2014), (Renewable Diesel 2030, in 2018),
(Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2030, in 2021). Mr. Thurmond is
also a contributor to Biofuels Digest, Biofuels International,
DigestConnect, and Renewable Energy World. Mr. Thurmond is the lead consultant
for Emerging Markets Online’s consulting, market research, competitive
intelligence, and forecasting activities for feedstocks, markets, and
technologies.






PURCHASE AND DOWNLOAD

Renewable Diesel & SAF 2030

Threading through the opportunities in advanced biofuels is like a minefield —
opportunity abounds, but danger lurks. Policymakers, financiers, suppliers — all
sensing the opportunity, but exactly where is it? How much? How soon? With whom,
and where? This is the definitive look at heavy-duty renewable fuels in the next
decade. Distilled from hundreds of techno-economic analyses, market analyses,
technology reports, policy outlooks. Includes the Complete Study and a 90-minute
audio narrative from Will Thurmond.



$2950.00

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