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Analysis

WHY ARE EXCESS DEATHS STILL SO HIGH?

WE CAN'T JUST BLAME A FAILING NHS

BY THOMAS FAZI AND TOBY GREEN

. A Pride march in London last year. Credit: Getty.

Thomas Fazi is an UnHerd columnist and translator. His latest book is The Covid
Consensus, co-authored with Toby Green.

January 30, 2023

BATTLEFOREUROPE

Toby Green is a Professor of History at King's College, London. The updated
edition of his book, The Covid Consensus, co-authored with Thomas Fazi, is
published by Hurst.

January 30, 2023

TOBY00GREEN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

January 30, 2023

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FILED UNDER:

Groupthink COVID-19Europeexcess deathslockdownUK

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Around the middle of last year, researchers in several countries started
noticing something disturbing: despite the fall in Covid deaths everywhere,
excess deaths (compared to the pre-pandemic five-year average) were actually
rising. Even more worryingly, a disproportionate number of those excess deaths
were occurring in young people. This was the opposite of what you would expect
in the receding phase of a pandemic — one which had largely spared young people
in the first place.

Some researchers sounded the alarm, but were largely ignored by governments,
public health authorities and the mainstream media. It was a curious response
from those who in the previous two and a half years had justified the complete
upending of human societies on the basis of “preserving life”. Throughout the
second half of 2022, however, excess deaths have continued to rise at faster
rates, and have continued to do so in the first weeks of 2023, to the point that
the problem has become impossible to ignore.

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The BBC recently reported that more than 650,000 deaths were registered in the
UK in 2022 — 9% more than 2019. That’s around 50,000 excess deaths, most of
which have been concentrated in the second half of the year (since July, there
have been an average of 1,300 additional deaths per week). Excluding the
pandemic, this represents the highest excess deaths level in 70 years — and only
a fraction of these deaths are attributable to Covid. Figures from the Office
for National Statistics (ONS) show that excess deaths were almost 3,000 higher
than normal in the second week of January alone — more than 20% above the
average. Covid-19 accounted for just 5% of the total. The week before, overall
deaths were 30% higher than expected.

If we break the numbers down by age groups, the results are even more
surprising. While excess deaths in most age groups, even if above average, tend
to be lower than they were in 2020 and 2021, as you would expect, there is one
outlier: people between the age of 0 and 24 registered lower-than-average death
rates in 2020 and 2021. Throughout 2022, on the other hand, they have been dying
at higher rates than expected. In other words, more young people are dying today
in Britain than before, or even during, the pandemic — and we don’t know why.

And yet, despite this stark discrepancy, there has been a notable lack of public
acknowledgement of the non-Covid mortality crisis — let alone any meaningful
explanation as for what’s driving it. Earlier this month, Health Secretary Steve
Barclay told Sky News that “it’s extremely complicated as to what the drive of
those excess deaths are”. Meanwhile, health experts say the causes could include
anything from ambulance delays, long waits in A&E and major backlogs for routine
NHS care to high flu rates and long Covid. Indeed, the consensus seems to hold
that the general breakdown of the NHS is largely to blame for the increase in
excess deaths.

But there is a hole in this argument: excess deaths are a problem in a number of
other high-income countries, where the “NHS is broken” argument doesn’t hold.
According to EuroMOMO, a European mortality monitoring activity supported by the
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the World Health
Organization (WHO), many European countries are showing elevated levels of
excess mortality in all age groups — around 35% above average — and did so
throughout 2022. In fact, despite relatively low Covid death rates, overall
excess deaths in all age groups in Europe in 2022 were as high as in 2020 and
higher than 2021 — even in the oldest cohorts. Beyond Europe, the situation is
much the same: Australia and New Zealand recorded, respectively, 16% and 9% more
excess deaths than the historical average in 2022, while in the United States,
CDC data shows that the rate of non-Covid excess deaths in the first half of
2022 was even higher than in 2020 or 2021.

In short, a significant number of Western countries are experiencing a surge in
excess deaths across all age groups. And there is no single explanation for
this. Rather, each country seems to have its own theory — none of which have
anything to do with the NHS. In Portugal, December saw excess deaths which beat
all records of the previous 13 years, including during Covid-19, which the press
attributes to an ageing population, and the resurgence of other respiratory
viruses alongside the summer heat waves. In France and Spain, the summer heat
waves are also seen as a clear cause of the excess deaths, while in Chile one
additional cause of the surge in mortality was seen as “deaths avoided during
the pandemic owing to the lower risk of certain events, like traffic accidents
or injuries at work”.

Suggested reading

WHAT WAS THE POINT OF JACINDA ARDERN?

By Tom Chodor

Finally, there is one possible explanation that has to be considered, at least
as a contributing factor for the rise in non-Covid excess deaths: the role of
the vaccines, in particular those from Pfizer and Moderna that use the new mRNA
technology. This is a hyper-polarising issue, so let’s start with what we know:
the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are associated with a higher risk of developing
myocarditis (heart inflammation), especially in younger males (possibly due to
the spike protein generated by the vaccine circulating in the blood), and other
serious adverse events such as blood clots. This is confirmed by a number of
studies (see, for example, here, here, here, here, and here) and even by the
CDC’s own data. There is quite a lot of variability between the studies, but
they appear to suggest that, with young people, the risk from the vaccine may
well outweigh the risk from Covid or from post-Covid myocarditis.

That said, proving a connection between vaccine-related harms and the
disproportionately high number of young people dying at the moment is not
straightforward. However, a number of studies — such as a recent analysis by
Martin Neil, professor of computer science and statistics at Queen Mary
University in London, and Norman Fenton, a mathematician and leading expert on
risk assessment and statistics — do show a statistically significant correlation
between vaccination rates and excess mortality.

To what extent this correlation actually implies causation does, of course,
remain unclear. But just as lockdowns are clearly a factor, it seems unwise to
rule out the vaccines as a contributing factor without proper investigation —
the point is that we simply don’t know, as we don’t have enough data to
establish or disprove a link. Ultimately, the causes of the excess deaths are
probably varied, and involve a combination of factors. This shouldn’t be
surprising, since lockdowns and vaccines were always connected in the pandemic
response. But we shall never know for sure if we don’t start asking these
uncomfortable questions — especially when our politicians and public-health
experts seem reluctant to do so themselves.

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Peter Johnson
3 days ago

It is the vaccines. Every single thing we have been told about Covid, the
mandates and the vaccines has been a lie. 9 year olds don’t have strokes and
heart attacks – or at least they didn’t before the vaccines. We are still being
told they are safe for pregnant women – they were never tested on pregnant
women. The mainstream press are pushing all kinds of nonsense – gardening
elevates your risk of heart attacks, etc. Here is a question for you – are they
having excess deaths in Africa? In Haiti? In Bangladesh? The other problem is of
course that even if there was a genuine reason for this – I simply won’t believe
it. I, and millions like me, simply don’t believe the physicians, university
professors and other institutional ‘leaders’ anymore. Or the mainstream media.
They have no credibility – or power to persuade.

Last edited 3 days ago by Gunner Myrtle
305

Albireo Double
3 days ago

Reply to Peter Johnson

Good post.

The unnecessary deaths caused by the political lies will always be the most
disastrous outcome remembered by individuals. But the catastrophic loss of of
credibility of governing institutions throughout the West may yet turn out to be
the most far-reaching consequence.

I wonder what the next dozen elections in the West will produce. It’s hard to
guess, currently. Personally I hope it will be the start of an overthrow of the
WEF-based order.

Last edited 3 days ago by Albireo Double
129

Russell Dale
3 days ago

Reply to Peter Johnson

Good article but slightly nutty ranting comments
There are parallels with excess mortality from the post global financial crisis
(GFC) data.
When the pandemic started there was clear data on the costs of societal
disruption – increased excess mortality in mental health, cardiovascular and
cancer deaths post GFC.

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/economic-downturn-excess-cancer-deaths-atun/

Although it is not exactly the same as covid, the parallels are manifest:
Loss of employment, insurance, loss of social connectiveness, loss of health
screening all equal increased risk of death.

Maybe we should learn from recent history rather than rant.

-36

N Forster
3 days ago

Reply to Russell Dale

Would you like to address any of the issues raised by the people you criticise,
or just call them names?

Jim R
2 days ago

Reply to N Forster

The prominence of the ad hominem always gives away the weakness of the position.
It also reveals the author to be uninterested in a fair and civil argument – the
strategy is that the target (and onlookers harbouring sceptical thoughts) will
stay quiet for fear of humiliation and social rejection. These anti-rational
techniques have been embraced to devastating effect in the mainstream and its
disappointing to see them here on a site that exists largely to try to
counteract these toxins. But once all debates have collapsed into name calling,
where does that leave a society with real problems to solve? When we resort to
schoolyard techniques to sort out our problems, don’t be surprised that our
once-enlightened society begins to resemble “Lord of the Flies”.

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Jim R

No.

The problem has not been one of “toxic debate”. There has *been* no “debate”
because of totalitarian neo-Marxist propaganda and censorship.

Betsy Arehart
19 hours ago

Reply to Jim R

What we have here are a lot of very angry (myself included) people expressing
their anger at the whole lying covid-management debacle, and their anger at
realizing that the societal institutions can no longer be believed or trusted
in. When you have been brought up to trust these institutions—with fairly good
reason—and then find they no longer can be believed, it is a bitter pill to
swallow. Perhaps contributing to excess deaths.

Kevin R
3 days ago

Reply to Russell Dale

Excellent comment. Expect many downvotes.

-7

Albireo Double
3 days ago

Reply to Russell Dale

I think your comparison has some validity in the US. But very little in the UK.

Paige M
2 days ago

Reply to Russell Dale

It’s a fair statement, however, if we were asking the hard questions right now
people wouldn’t have to “rant” as you suggest. This requires more than ranting
at this stage, it requires shouting at the top of your lungs to have an
independent investigative body struck that digs in, asks the hard questions,
leaves no stone unturned and and does the proper data analysis. This will never
happen – all manner of perverse incentives are driving our institutions to the
complete opposite side of real science now. We are so far beyond a rant now.

Susie Bell
2 days ago

Reply to Russell Dale

None of this answers the question, why so many deaths in the young? Obesity? 20
pounds (even 50 pounds) overweight in the young would not be significant. Social
isolation? They were not behaving like curtain twitching pensioners and carried
on seeing their mates. Screening? What healthy 20 and thirty somethings spend
time getting health screens?

Nick Wade
1 day ago

Reply to Russell Dale

And the 9 year olds having strokes?

Chris Haley
1 day ago

Reply to Russell Dale

Two obvious problems with drawing this parallel: the excess deaths we are
currently experiencing are *much* higher than those following the GFC. And a
large proportion of the deaths are sudden cardiovascular issues, not problems
arising from the delayed treatment of treatable cancers.
I would also take issue with your description of ‘ranty’ comments: people have
been raising concerns about excess deaths for many, many months but have been
persistently censored, down-played or ignored – and so have had to shout.

Matthew Powell
3 days ago

Reply to Peter Johnson

Given that the article gives several plausible candidates for excess mortality
what makes you so sure that it’s solely the vaccines?

My feeling is that for many who vehemently opposed the lockdowns they want it to
be the vaccines because that would give them a weapon with which to punish the
those inflicted the Covid restrictions on them.

I can understand this. Personally I feel like I was robbed of two years of my
life, time we will not get back, by the lockdowns but this doesn’t mean we
should throw reason out the window and adopt a kind of monomania with regards to
the vaccines.

We know the vaccines can cause myocarditis but we also haven’t seen an
associated increase in death rates from those diagnosed with vaccine induced
heart problems, nor has a mechanism for how they would go on to cause death been
identified. Given that studies find much higher rates of myocarditis in Covid
patients, if there was an increased death rate due long term damage to the
heart, how could it be distinguished that this was due to the vaccine and not
Covid?

I still feel that the most likely explanation will be a combination of a wide
number of factors: Lack of health care during the pandemic, later diagnosis,
social isolation worsening health conditions or increasing deaths of despair,
increased waiting lists due to backlogs in the health care system, potential
immune naivety from certain viruses not been encountered for the last two years,
rebounds in accidents from high risk behaviour which were suppressed by
lockdown, the possibility that a disproportionate number of the very vulnerable
were highly sheltered by the lockdown and now their mortality rates are
returning to normal.

When faced with this Gordian knot of potential causes, the temptation might be
to say, it’s all down to the vaccines, and cut it but expedient answers rarely
are the correct ones.

Last edited 3 days ago by Matthew Powell
24

John Riordan
3 days ago

Reply to Matthew Powell

“My feeling is that for many who vehemently opposed the lockdowns they want it
to be the vaccines because that would give them a weapon with which to punish
the those inflicted the Covid restrictions on them.”

Surely such people would blame the lockdowns, if that’s what they opposed? I can
speak as one myself: I opposed the lockdowns on the grounds of their potential
human cost, and it looks as if I was right. Why would I need to blame the
vaccines, even if I also believe that the vaccines may well have had serious
side-effects outweighing their benefits for certain groups?

Last edited 3 days ago by John Riordan
65

Andrew Horsman
2 days ago

Reply to John Riordan

Whatever combination of vaccines, lockdowns, or any of the other interventions
or their economic consequences it might be, it’s clear that political and other
authorities across the world and in the UK threw a generation of young people
and children under the bus in a desperate, blind moral panic to protect, or be
seen to be protecting, the elderly and the “vulnerable”.

Why don’t they try and find the humility and courage to try and learn lessons
from this catastrophe, instead of burying their heads in the sand or trying to
find someone else to blame? Truth and reconciliation is desperately needed.

Walter Marvell
2 days ago

Reply to Andrew Horsman

Well said. But they will not. They cannot for fear of criminal sanction .
Everyone in authority is complicit in the NHS First catastrophe. Everyone. But
our media/BBC – to its eternal shame a guilty lead propagandist party in
inducing public hysteria – will protect themselves, all the craven political
parties and the authoritarian health Industrial complex with censorship and
lies. And our supposed protector – the law – remain silent and unused. Human
rights?? Yeh right. Magna Carta did ut better. It is like living under
communism. They speak one false truth after another. Covid. Net Zero. Climate
Emergency. Equality mania. We know it is a State ideology and riddled with lies.
But we cannot remove the unelected technocracy which holds the levers of real
power. So are are mute frustrated disempowered. And they get away with it.

Betsy Arehart
19 hours ago

Reply to Andrew Horsman

Because the Blob doesn’t do humility and courage, or truth or reconciliation.

Matthew Powell
2 days ago

Reply to John Riordan

Because it was always known on some level, even if the if governments failed to
quantify it, that lockdown would cause harms. However, it could be argued that
lockdown was to protect the most vulnerable therefore can be justified as an act
of solidarity, whether you agree with that or not.

The vaccines, whilst they reduced the rates of deaths and serious illness failed
in the end to prevent transmission, meaning that the mass vaccination of the
under 50’s has no such justification. If it was to emerge that as well turning
out to have been unnecessary, they also caused harm, this would be far more
damaging for authorities. That’s why I think vaccines are the preferred target.

Andrew Fisher
2 days ago

Reply to Matthew Powell

I am far more outraged about the pointless loss of my freedom – and I had it
pretty easy – than a vaccination programme which actually was not coerced in the
UK.

-9

jules Ritchie
2 days ago

Reply to Andrew Fisher

If you wanted to keep your job as the wage-earners in thousands of family had to
do, you were coerced into having a vax.

Iris Violet
1 day ago

Reply to Andrew Fisher

Andrew this is inaccurate. There were many way in which the uptake was enforced.
I could not travel to help my elderly father who was unwell and in need of
urgent care as he lives – now lived – in another country if I did not take it. I
have thus been coerced. Many would have lost their jobs.

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Matthew Powell

“The vaccines, whilst they reduced the rates of deaths and serious illness”

The evidence says otherwise, but don’t let that trouble you.

Andrew Dalton
2 days ago

Reply to John Riordan

Speak for me, too. Sums up my position as well.
Aside from the creeping totalitarianism, I’ve not said much of anything regards
to the vaccines.

Peter Johnson
2 days ago

Reply to John Riordan

I opposed both the lockdowns and the vaccines. Even if the vaccines were perfect
the lockdowns were completely overdone especially for children. They achieved
nothing in the end and people who tried to say so were suppressed on social
media and in the press. For 2 years we were told that no sacrifice was too high
if we could save just one 83 year old life. The drumbeat of alarm was beaten
relentlessly. But suddenly there is a glaring lack of interest in excess deaths
– including the very young. The media doesn’t talk about it at all. When young
people literally stroke out live on TV – the response is a shrug. “Hey $@&$
happens – chill out.”

Billy Bob
2 days ago

Reply to John Riordan

Too many people in my eyes aren’t able to do as you say unfortunately, they’re
far too tribal. They didn’t like lockdowns (which I didn’t) therefore everything
that was done in regards to Covid must have been wrong. We see the same in
politics, where they believe everything one side says is right and the
opposition always wrong when most of us know that’s nonsense

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Billy Bob

Everything that was done in regards to Covid *was* wrong.

But some people are just too cowardly to form an evidence-based opinion. They’d
rather believe the garbage fed to them by the BBC and corrupt politicians.

Johann Strauss
2 days ago

Reply to Matthew Powell

Just to correct you somewhat. (a) In young men age 18-50 the frequency of
myocarditis post-vaccination vastly surpasses that post-covid. (b) from a purely
biological perspective, covid, in the vast majority of cases, is not a systemic
disease but limited to the respiratory tract so the spike protein does not
circulate in the blood; in the case of vaccination, the spike protein
(synthesized within cells from the mRNA or DNA for the AZ vaccine) circulates
throughout the body and is found in virtually every organ. That’s a completely
different situation.
As for the causes of excess deaths one has to look at the age group and
demographic where you don’t expect people to die of cardiovascular disease. i.e.
very few people less than 50 are going to be on statins, for example, so
Whitty’s argument/proposal is just idiotic (Not to mention that statins have
absolutely no effect on mortality for those who haven’t yet experienced a
cardiovascular event, except in very rare cases of inherited hyperlipidemias.

Billy Bob
2 days ago

Reply to Johann Strauss

The virus has also been shown to cause myocarditis, so seeing as almost the
entire population would have had at least one of the strains by now woukd that
not also explain the rise rather than just the vaccines?

-6

Johann Strauss
2 days ago

Reply to Billy Bob

Yes indeed, but only in very rare cases does a covid infection result in
myocarditis. That’s because the infection has to systemic and general it isn’t.
For the vaccine, it is always given systemically.

Robbie K
2 days ago

Reply to Billy Bob

Totally correct, but that doesn’t fit with the conspiracy.

-8

Carmel Shortall
1 day ago

Reply to Billy Bob

Nope! https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9025013/

Andrew Fisher
2 days ago

Reply to Johann Strauss

Your initial strong assertion isn’t supported by this article:

https://www.heart.org/en/news/2022/08/22/covid-19-infection-poses-higher-risk-for-myocarditis-than-vaccines#:~:text=Myocarditis%20is%20the%20inflammation%20of,keeps%20the%20heart%20pumping%20normally.

-12

Johann Strauss
2 days ago

Reply to Andrew Fisher

Yes but it’s supported by many papers in the literature including the recent
studies out of Switzerland and thailand. As Vinay Prassad has pointed out, you
cannot just put everybody in the same pot and compare 85 year olds to 18-29 yr
olds! probably a good idea to understand the medical literature.

Jeremy Sansom
1 day ago

Reply to Andrew Fisher

I’m not quite sure what to make of this study.
It compares the incidence of myocarditis in those who had Covid BEFORE receiving
the ‘vaccine’ with those who contracted Covid AFTER the shot, reporting a higher
incidence of myocarditis in the former.

Surely what is required is simply a comparison of the incidence of myocarditis
in the UNVACCINATED with those who have received the ‘vaccine’, either before or
after contracting Covid?

All along, I believed the forceful coercion, including the mandates, were a
desperate bid to eliminate a most useful control group – the unvaccinated!

Jim R
2 days ago

Reply to Matthew Powell

Obviously when faced with problems arising in complex systems, we grasp at
simplistic solutions. The answer is unlikely to be simple – inconvenient as that
may be for our need to understand. The problem the authors identify is a serious
one – the vaccines have been prematurely ruled out as a cause of anything by our
governments without anything near a sufficient level of study. And they are
actively silencing and shaming anyone who wants to do those studies. The
conspiracy theorizing around vaccines will only start to subside when the actual
conspiracy to silence all criticism of the vaccines subsides.

Peter Johnson
2 days ago

Reply to Jim R

You mean simplistic solutions like the contention that the entire global
temperature is controlled by one variable – man made CO2? I can guarantee you
that most people who believe fervently in vaccines – believe that simplistic
story as well. I guess I am old fashioned and tend to believe in things that I
have witnessed – like my child being vaccine injured – like the fact I don’t
know anyone who has died from Covid who wasn’t old and sick – like the fact that
I have had Covid three times despite being vaccinated. We have reached a certain
intellectual nihilism where we literally don’t know who to believe anymore. I am
as interested in hearing what a crackpot handing out flyers on a street corner
has to say these days as I am in hearing what the head of the CDC is saying.
They are both about equal in credibility – except one of them hasn’t already
intentionally lied to the public to my knowledge.

Last edited 2 days ago by Gunner Myrtle
46

Andrew Fisher
2 days ago

Reply to Peter Johnson

Sometimes simple solutions are actually correct! We’ve known CO2 is a greenhouse
gas for 150 years, (it’s why Venus is so much hotter than it ‘should’ be at its
distance from the Sun), we know we are producing more and more of this gas, and
we know world temperatures are rising. That doesn’t prove the case but makes a
pretty strong ‘case to answer’. I’m rather mystified as to how anyone who has
for example visited the Alps or any other mountain area with glaciers couldn’t
be aware of the warning tendency. No one is saying that world climate is
‘controlled by one variable’, just that the one that has changed the most
quickly happens to be man-made emissions of CO2.

None of that of course means that the world is going to end, humanity will
become extinct or that current Net Zero policies are sensible (almost certainly
not in my view). Bjorn Lomborg has a very balanced view

Last edited 2 days ago by Andrew Fisher
-10

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Andrew Fisher

Clown. You’re seriously comparing the Earth’s atmosphere to Venus?

https://johnsullivan.substack.com/p/the-dummies-guide-to-uk-net-zero

Billy Bob
2 days ago

Reply to Matthew Powell

The few studies I’ve seen seem to show that the vaccines increase the risk of
myocarditis by an extra 10 people per million. By contrast catching Covid
appears to show an increase of myocarditis by around 40 people per million.

-11

Johann Strauss
2 days ago

Reply to Billy Bob

Maybe you actually need to read more carefully. The best studies and data out of
Israel, Thailand and Switzerland all indicate a rate of overt myocarditis in
18-29 yr old men of between 1 in 2000 to 1 in 10000, with a risk of sub-clinical
myocarditis pegged at 1-2 orders of magnitude higher. You’ve got to read the
literature a little more carefully and actually understand what you’re reading.
You cannot lump 85 yr old women with 18-29 yr old men. That’s garbage science.

Andrew Fisher
2 days ago

Reply to Matthew Powell

Thanks for your measured comments Matthew, but those who ‘vehemently oppose
lockdowns’ might be better placed to directly blame lockdowns!

I am personally far more outraged at having my liberty removed for no good
reason – and I had it pretty easy – than a vaccination programme, though I tend
to agree that was probably directed at far too great an age range (Denmark now
doesn’t recommend vaccination below the age of 50).

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Matthew Powell

Ostrich.

Robbie K
2 days ago

Reply to Peter Johnson

Folks seem so certain it’s the vaccine yet there is no evidence. Maybe it’s just
ingrained bias?

-12

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Robbie K

You’re right, there’s no evidence.

At least, not if you squeeze your eyes tight shut and stick your fingers in your
ears.

Robbie K
2 days ago

Reply to John Sullivan

Maybe you should read the article again

-1

Dennis Taylor
2 days ago

Reply to Peter Johnson

At 72 years of age not taking the COVID vax and not buying into the governments
masks,social distancing,lock downs,forced inoculations and all the other BS they
were peddling at the time was the wisest choice I eve made in my life.I’m in
excellent health and feel as good as when I was 40.I have been to far to many
funerals of people younger than me by decades who have dropped dead for no good
reason and most of them were fully vaxed and boosted! I’ll never trust our
government ever again for as long as I live because if you do so its at your own
peril.

Billy Bob
2 days ago

Reply to Dennis Taylor

You see, I find this hard to believe personally. I’m a few decades younger than
yourself and presumably know a lot more people of that age group than a retired
man would through friends, work and coming from a large family, and yet the only
person in that age group that I know who has died in the last few years did so
because of a car crash. It seems rather convenient that you know lots of vaxxed
young people who have died unexpectedly when it just so happens to prove the
point you’re trying to make about the vaccines.

Andrew Fisher
2 days ago

Reply to Peter Johnson

I’m not quite sure why you are so outraged about vaccinations but don’t even
mention the imprisonment of the population in own own homes for months on end.
I’m actually far more outraged about that, and it is very likely to have adverse
medical effects.

Vojin Subasic
1 day ago

Reply to Peter Johnson

Please stop this misinformation and baseless conspiracy theories! Follow the
science!
Its a well known fact, that the “vaccines” give 100% (!!) IMMUNITY!
That is, it gives legal immunity to the producers, so no risk (for them) AT ALL!
A totally safe product!

Albireo Double
3 days ago

I was supportive at the start of the first lockdown and the first vaccines. But
I think that everything that happened after that was both wrong, and
unforgivable.

The problem was that our political class along with others in the West did not
dare to consider changing course. A “sunk cost – bet the farm” mentality took
over and cowardice prevented any questioning of it. That is the “wrong” part.

Meanwhile governments harnessed every resource at their disposal (along with
some that should not have been at their disposal) to terrorise the populations
into belief, while they bankrupted whole countries as their “easier softer
route” rather than being honest and rigorously questioning their advisors, the
evidence, and their own actions. That is the “unforgivable” part.

It really is unforgivable, and authorities should remain unforgiven until they
apologise fulsomely, wholly and personally, to their populations for the
weakness, dishonesty and cowardice that they have shown, and the countless
thousands or millions of deaths they have deliberately caused..

Last edited 3 days ago by Albireo Double
134

Jeff Cunningham
3 days ago

Reply to Albireo Double

We’ll, that’s not going to happen. I agree with you though.

Last edited 3 days ago by Jeff Cunningham
27

Iris C
2 days ago

Reply to Albireo Double

At one time the opposition opposed and different points of view were voiced in
parliament but there is little difference now between the political parties and
no politician wants to take a controversial stance which could be exploited by
the press,causing aggro. Too fatiguing!
As a result, we have lost the benefits of being a democracy. Freedom of speech
is curtailed and decisions are taken through the strength and publicity given to
all sorts of pressure groups( which only have minority followings.
It is a sorry state of affairs and we are lucky to have Unherd where different
viewpoints can be aired. Unfortunately they don’t reach the mainstream media.

Hardee Hodges
1 day ago

Reply to Iris C

Expecting a few brave people to speak out was our wish but that was rare. When
did nearly all our leaders become so sensitive? Perhaps because we wouldn’t
proclaim “Let them speak”. Too many of us allowed the press to attack. We
accepted cancelling and mocking attacks. OTOH, our governments have become quite
skilled at using PsyOp tools that we are ill trained to deal with. Our press
needs to identify and call out the use of those tools so we might learn.

Robbie K
2 days ago

Reply to Albireo Double

Deliberately caused? Baffling, this seems to be the ranting of a drunk in the
street.

-14

Paige M
2 days ago

Reply to Robbie K

I have not known one person who has died from Covid. What I have personally
experienced in my community, three suicides, multiple overdoses, failed
marriages, financial ruin, anxious and overwrought kids and teens, future
potential decimated. I could go on and on. I feel fortunate that Covid took no
one I know, but do I turn a blind eye to all the rest that was a direct
consequence of our response and hence deliberate? And after all this, we still
have no leads on where Covid came from? The person who doesn’t think something
is seriously amiss here is not only drunk but willfully blind.

Robbie K
2 days ago

Reply to Paige M

You truly believe the government murdered thousands of people? Ok.

-6

Albireo Double
1 day ago

Reply to Robbie K

The government went ahead with a course of action involving lies deception and
propagandising of the population knowing perfectly well from its own advisors
that lives would be lost as a result of their actions.

So yes – deliberately killing…

Douglas McNeish
2 days ago

Reply to Albireo Double

Cowardice, above all, is what made this unfolding tragedy possible. Some medical
experts, infected by the sensationalism of a looming pandemic, spun their
doomsday scenarios to the media, drowning out more reasoned voices from the
scientific realm. Any support for the concept of herd immunity became a
dangerous place for both the experts, and more importantly, for politicians.
They opted for Safetyism as the best route to avoid career damaging cries of
“blood on your hands” from the media. Then, looking for kudos as they slid into
the role of saviours, championed the cause of finding a vaccine to make the
whole horror show go away. In pursuit of a fawning, hero-worshipping public,
government oversight was waived to push an untested vaccine upon them, with the
now unfolding tragedy a result.
Cowardice again, will preempt any official acknowledgement or atonement for bad
decisions and governance.

Elliott Bjorn
3 days ago

Hahahaa – these guys are beginning ‘THE GREAT BACKPEDALING’ they were so
involved in the agenda which to any sane person was obviously 100% deceit, lies,
corruption, betrayal – but now the evidence is overwhelming and so they begin
the great Non-Mia Culpa. The great excuse that they pushed this horror because
they thought it the right thing; they were told it was the right thing, the
Nuremberg excuse……

The – ‘Yes, we have destroyed the global economy and education and health, and
freedom, and education, and mental health, and pensions, and will cause Famines
which will kill hundreds of millions with the economic Armageddon they created,
and made the old die alone with strangers in space suits ignoring them’ – ‘But
we meant well’, they will say. ‘They told us to do this‘ they will say…..

”a disproportionate number of those excess deaths were occurring in young
people. This was the opposite of what you would expect in the receding phase of
a pandemic —”

I knew the truth, I 100% expected this. I refused the Vax, refused the mask
although it took great nerve and effort – I did it to make a statement – as I do
with words here.

You people injected alien Genetic Material into yourself with NO trials. Well,
some short ones which showed the vax was much more harmful than the covid – but
hushed that bit up. But NO Long Trials! None! The vax (this is widely said – dr
Malone et al) – the mRNA vax was developed as part of a Bio-Weapon system, and
you put it in you!

The Nuremberg Trials made ‘Informed Consent’ a Human Right. NO ONE WAS
‘INFORMED’ on risks – this is a violation of Human Rights. Many were coerced –
ALL were Lied to.

”Under the Nuremberg Code, responsibility for violations of informed consent
rests upon individual doctors, government officials – and their aiders and
abettors – each of who can be prosecuted for crimes against humanity. ‘‘

The guilty must get Justice as must the innocent harmed.

CHARLES STANHOPE
3 days ago

Reply to Elliott Bjorn

I must congratulate you on your persistent and vociferous opposition to this
simply appalling scandal.
Under many ‘persona’, you have relentlessly exposed this nonsense from Day 1 (if
not before!). Bravo!

Andrew Dalton
3 days ago

Reply to Elliott Bjorn

A bit more forceful than I’d say but ultimately I don’t disagree.

I said at the start of this that there would be huge costs both measurable
(resource scarcity, inflation, debt from furlough and bailouts etc) and non
measurable (education, mental health and civil liberties etc). Nobody in
government would cost it and barely anyone in the media would question them
about it.

We’re now paying the piper and the media are attempting to gas light the
sceptics by claiming no one ever thought any of this would happen.

Johann Strauss
2 days ago

Reply to Elliott Bjorn

It’s worth pointing out that if one looks at the original Pfizer and Moderna
trials of their vaccines, there were in fact slightly more deaths in the
vaccinated arm than the control arm! Unfortunately, the end-point for both
trials was not hospitalization and death but symptomatic covid (at any level of
severity including very very mild cases).

Andrew Dalton
2 days ago

Reply to Johann Strauss

I’ve seen this stated on several occasions and maybe it’s just cognitive
dissonance on my part, but how exactly does this happen without some major
investigation by the regulatory bodies?
Granted, maybe those deaths were the result of a statistical anomaly with
trialists being hit by buses but surely some major oversight would have been
triggered?

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Andrew Dalton

Surely.

Dream on.

Johann Strauss
2 days ago

Reply to Andrew Dalton

Well unfortunately the regulators are under control of the regulated given that
the regulators are paid by the regulators (at least in the case of the FDA but I
believe the same is true in the UK) and there is a revolving door between
regulators and regulated. On top of that, the people in power had too much
invested in the vaccines, especially in the US (think Fauci and Collins) and
were so excited by the vaccines at first that they simply could stand back and
look objectively at what was really happening. Hard to go back on “safe and
effective” when safety had never been demonstrated but more and more serious
adverse events were being reported, and the efficacy of the vaccines and
boosters were falling very rapidly and in short order.

Andrew Dalton
2 days ago

Reply to Johann Strauss

Indeed – I was being a little rhetorical with that but some part of me just
really finds this hard to believe.
However, something that has irritated me a lot during this two year period is
how close this is to the 737 Air Max, which highlighted how little separation
there was between the manufacturers, airlines and regulators. This has been
memory holed quite quickly, but if we’re prepared to have such poor regulation
of aviation, why exactly would expect pharmaceuticals to be any different?

Andrew Martin
2 days ago

Reply to Elliott Bjorn

And just to rub salt into the wounds the Government have requested Moderna to
build a factory here and supply 210 million vaccines. Then suddenly out of the
blue they have decided not to give the vaccines to young people. I wonder what
changed their minds? Andrew Bridgen perhaps?

John Riordan
3 days ago

I usually love being right, but on the matter of me predicting in mid-2020 that
the lockdown response to Covid19 would in time be revealed as the worst policy
mistake in peacetime history, I can declare that there’s no fun in it at all now
that we can see the human cost in the numbers. What’s so infuriating is that I
didn’t come up with that idea myself, I read the views of lots of prominent
experts in public health, virology, infectious diseases etc and decided what I
believed and what I did not believe on that basis, like lots of other people.

My point is that this prediction wasn’t the preserve of some lunatic fringe of
extreme attitudes, but was available to anyone in need of expert advice: the
government’s own pre-existing pandemic plan was based upon rejectiing lockdown
as an effective strategy, for God’s sake.

I just hope that this talk of Covid amnesties is shot down soon, because the
truth is that alternatives to the chosen course of action were not merely
ignored by decision makers but actively maligned, sidelined and condemned.
Nobody involved has any right to expect to get away with this.

Last edited 3 days ago by John Riordan
65

Samir Iker
2 days ago

Reply to John Riordan

The problem is “they” are still not ready for accept that the lockdown was a
mistake

Sam Hill
2 days ago

Reply to John Riordan

‘the government’s own pre-existing pandemic plan was based upon rejecting
lockdown as an effective strategy, for God’s sake.’
This is the key point. We just took established plans and consensus and threw it
on the fire. That is the core of it – everything followed from there. Why that
happened is for conjecture, but perhaps I can make an addition to your good
post?
What got me most was the extent of ‘me too.’ As soon as China started and Italy
imported lockdowns then everyone else was bounced into it. It was the same with
vaccines. Once one government started doing something on vaccines then the
pressure was on everyone else to follow. So even if there were plans in place
they just got swept away in a grisly mix of media (mainstream and social)
hysteria, governments bouncing off each other and whole populations being
battered into submission. Initial reports were that the UK was only going to
vaccinate the vulnerable – that lasted exactly one 24 hour news channel cycle.
I’m actually a bit surprised that social and mainstream media has been mentioned
so little in comments on this article.
Don’t get me wrong – it’s not just politicians to blame. Scientists seemed to
think that a self publication on Twitter was the gold standard of scientific
endeavour and all started bouncing off each other too. There is (or was) a
reason scientific debate isn’t played out on a tacky social media company’s
service. Journos sat there lapping up the drama and indeed producing it. Several
gave the impression they rather liked having the opportunity to control people.
We the public sat there collecting furlough cheques as though they were all
consequence free.
You are exactly right. None of the pre covid plans were fringe views. They were
all there published and those plans were in place for a reason. The failure was
unbelievable.

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Sam Hill

There *were* no sensible “plans” in place. Its a myth.

“Don’t lockdown” is not a plan.

https://johnsullivan.substack.com/p/pandemic-preparedness-in-the-uk

Felice Camino
2 days ago

Reply to John Sullivan

My daughter works for a city council. They had pandemic plans in early 2020.
They had to be thrown out because all their careful planning assumed no
lockdown.

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Felice Camino

“Careful planning” lol. Point me at this “plan” and I’ll comment.

In the meantime, read my link and say something *concrete* to add to the
discussion, if you can.

Jeremy Sansom
22 hours ago

Reply to John Sullivan

Thanks for this link, John. A fascinating article that I wish I had seen two
years ago!

John Sullivan
13 hours ago

Reply to Jeremy Sansom

Thank you. Much appreciated.

ben arnulfssen
3 days ago

Note the first post in this column, which essentially posits that virtually any
observed phenomenon or statistic is a previously unknown symptom or consequence
of covid.

Ever heard of Occam’s razor?

There is SO MUCH posturing and intellectual contortions going on, so let’s try
something much simpler; what established medical research indicated that
submitting people to years of fear, stress, arbitrary confinement and lack of
social interaction WOULD NOT cause serious long-term consequences in and of
themselves?

What established medical research suggested that a total disruption of treatment
for a range of well-known medical problems, from cancer to TB tabloid pressure,
WOULD NOT cause severe long-term consequences?

What established medical research indicated that tried and tested protocols for
drug testing could be discarded or ignored?

Not hard, is it?

Hendrik Mentz
3 days ago

Reply to ben arnulfssen

What experimental medical research when tested on humans WOULD NOT cause serious
long-term consequences in and of themselves?
What experimental medical research that led to a total disruption of the natural
immune system WOULD NOT cause severe long-term consequences?
What established medical research indicated that tried and tested protocols for
drug testing could be discarded or ignored?
Not hard, is it?

Tim Smith
3 days ago

The question of the impact of the vaccines could be answered by a study
comparing the excess deaths among the vaccinated and unvaccinated (controlling
for other variables such as age).

The fact that there seems no appetite to make this data available, or to
undertake such a study, suggests to me that there is a strong suspicion among
those in power that the vaccines are a contributory factor. But it’s an answer
that would be too politically damaging, as well as damaging to trust in health
professionals. So they will try to ensure it is never definitively answered.

And the cover up will end up doing more to erode trust than anything else.

Ben M
3 days ago

Also the vaccine was meant to stay at the injection site -it didn’t. Unlike
traditional vaccines there was no dosing factor – everyone got the same amount.
It was not meant to cross the blood -brain barrier but the vaccine has a
phospholipid coating and is attracted to organs which have a large concentration
of fats eg brain and ovaries (hence rise in menstrual problems).
See Dr John Campbell, Dr Mobeen Syed, Dr Drew and a multiple of other front line
doctors and cardiologists who have spoken out and been cancelled.

Ben M
3 days ago

By the way I was at the Truth be Told rally (vaccine bereaved and injured – that
includes me)outside the BBC last Saturday. Not reported on the MSM anywhere.

B Emery
3 days ago

Uk has limited the vax!!!!! Dr John Campbell –
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sidjKoHS6NE

He also has covered excess deaths:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ku2Fv7xnL1o

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=av4Ej6om0WI

Pfizer press release:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aSzar6T3zJw

Hats off to Dr Campbell.

j watson
3 days ago

Reply to B Emery

YouTuber misinterprets Covid-19 vaccine evidence on children from Singapore –
Full Fact

Come on if we’re going to include links, include them all. His poor science has
been debunked. Now if folks are going to be lazy, see something on YouTube (the
modern bloke down the pub says it’s true) and not think ‘well I’ll read round a
bit more before I come to my own conclusion’ we are going to be played
repeatedly.

-22

B Emery
2 days ago

Reply to j watson

Yeah I’ve just watched three videos and made my mind up. Obviously.
Heres a couple of medical journal type articles.

Quote:
The vaccine was associated with an excess risk of myocarditis (1 to 5 events per
100,000 persons). The risk of this potentially serious adverse event and of many
other serious adverse events was substantially increased after SARS-CoV-2
infection.
Source:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2110475

Quote:
We found increased risks of myocarditis associated with the first dose of
ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 vaccines and the first and second doses of the mRNA-1273
vaccine over the 1–28 days postvaccination period, and after a SARS-CoV-2
positive test

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01630-0

Short lunch break. Would you like more later?
Also John Campbell is a hero.

Last edited 2 days ago by B Emery
14

Matthew Powell
2 days ago

Reply to B Emery

The first quote you’ve included states that whilst vaccinations can cause
myocarditis, Covid also causes it and other serious complications, at a
substantially higher rate, though it does not specify the numbers.

This is an argument against your position.

With regards to why the UK and other countries are now limiting the vaccine.
It’s expensive and eats up health care capacity vaccinating large numbers.

The first rollout attempted to see if the vaccine could eliminate Covid from the
population, either through a permanent or a sufficiently long suppression of
transmission. As it turned out, transmission was not suppressed for long enough
for the elimination of Covid from the population. This being the case, vaccines
are now being distributed on the same risk assessment criteria as all other
vaccines, i.e. only to those who see the largest risk reduction under the cost
benefit analysis.

-8

B Emery
2 days ago

Reply to Matthew Powell

I don’t think so… You need to re read I think, please do correct me if I’m wrong
though.
From the same article:

The effect of vaccination on the various potential adverse events included in
this study is presented in Table 2. The risk was substantially higher on either
the multiplicative (risk ratio) or additive (risk difference) scales in the
vaccinated group than in the unvaccinated group for myocarditis (risk ratio,
3.24; 95% confidence interval [CI

Matthew Powell
2 days ago

Reply to B Emery

Believe that refers to the increased risk of myocarditis compared to the
unvaccinated population who don’t have Covid. Which is correct, an unvaccinated
individual has a lower chance of myocarditis than one that’s just been
vaccinated so we can confirm the vaccine can cause myocarditis.

However, as others have commented, the risk of getting myocarditis from Covid
whilst being unvaccinated is significantly higher, maybe four times as much.
Since this rate is decreased by vaccination, the lowest risk rate for a
vulnerable group will be to take the vaccine, since the increased risk of harm
from the vaccine is more than outweighed by the decreased risk from the
ameliorating effects of the vaccine.

There may be groups, particularly amongst the young, whose risk of complications
from covid is lower than the side effects of the vaccine. In those cases it’s
right that they shouldn’t have the vaccine. However I’m still yet to see a study
which has linked vaccine induced myocarditis to an increased mortality rate.

-2

B Emery
2 days ago

Reply to Matthew Powell

OK but Watson questioned the fact I had just posted you tube links. John
Campbell does discuss those differences between age groups you talk about. He
does not link myocarditis specifically to increased mortality you are quite
right. But I think it’s fair to say those reports back up the fact that
myocarditis caused by covid vaccines in SOME age groups MAY have contributed. I
think it is fair to use them to back up the idea that John Campbell is not
completely off his trolley. That was my main intention. If you post sources
people can read them and interpret them as they will. I’m not really trying to
tell you what to think, just share information.

Billy Bob
2 days ago

Reply to B Emery

https://www.phc.ox.ac.uk/news/covid-19-infection-more-likely-than-vaccines-to-cause-rare-cardiovascular-complications

From what I can gather the vaccines increase the rate of myocarditis by around
10 people per million, whereas catching Covid increases it by 40 per million, so
even Moderna (which appears to be the most dangerous) is around 4 timer safer
than the disease

-3

B Emery
2 days ago

Reply to Billy Bob

Fair enough, good source, I would retort your report is dated 16 December 2021.
Dr Campbells videos are covering the latest data. Perhaps would be fair to say
we maybe have more data now?

Andrew Martin
2 days ago

Reply to Billy Bob

And yet the Government cancelled the “world beating” Astra Zeneca vaccine and
are in the process of allowing Moderna to supply millions of vaccines here
presumably not based on that Nuffield publication. But lets be clear about this
the original Wuhan virus with its unique cleavage site attacked everywhere in
the body that had ACE 2 receptor cells whereas Omicron Mk10+? version aims at
the upper respiratory tract.

B Emery
2 days ago

Reply to j watson

They would not be limiting it if it was safe surely?

Billy Bob
2 days ago

Reply to B Emery

Why wouldn’t they limit it? If the financial costs are high then they would
restrict it to only the most urgent of cases the same as they do any other
healthcare treatment

B Emery
2 days ago

Reply to Billy Bob

But then why the hype over every one having to have it before we could lift
lockdown! We were told a few weeks ago we at risk of imploding again from
another wave from China opening up. But now all of a sudden, none of that
matters?

Billy Bob
2 days ago

Reply to B Emery

I agree with you that in hindsight there probably wasn’t any need to try and
push it onto the amount of the population they did, seeing as it didn’t provide
long term protection it should have just been aimed at those most at risk,
similar to the flu jab.

-1

B Emery
1 day ago

Reply to Billy Bob

Yes, perhaps, I don’t know I’m not qualified to say really, my main personal
concern was the trials were cut shorter than usual, and I don’t like that we
don’t have a clear answer as to the origin. I’m not against vaccines, we have
all had our normal ones, my daughter has had hers, just I felt there were a lot
of unknowns with the covid vaccine still, I didn’t like that experts who
questioned it didn’t seem to be treated that well. It is very different to
conventional vaccines too, so a different kettle of fish. If they are trialled
widely and found to be safe, fair enough.

B Emery
1 day ago

Reply to Billy Bob

I’ve just read that again. Just to be clear I’m really not saying that, I just
believe in freedom of personal choice. I am not qualified to be saying what
advice the government should have set. I’m not saying what anyone should or
shouldn’t do.

Robbie K
2 days ago

Reply to j watson

Totally agree. Why do people believe some old guy in his bedroom? Mind boggling.

B Emery
2 days ago

Reply to Robbie K

John Lorimer Campbell[6] grew up primarily in the Stanwix district of
Carlisle.[7] He holds a diploma in nursing from the University of London, a BSc
in biology from the Open University, an MSc in health science from the
University of Lancaster, and a Ph.D. in nursing from the University of
Bolton.[7] He received the Ph.D. for his work on developing methods of teaching
via digital media such as online videos.[7]

Sounds well qualified to me. He is just analysing data that has been
legitimately collected by the government. You can look it all up yourself. You
dont have to believe him if you don’t want to, make what you will of the data.

Andrew Martin
2 days ago

Reply to Robbie K

It seems “some old guy in his bedroom” is able to attract Scientists from around
the world including Professor Robert Clancy a professor in Immunology who talks
about the dangers of mrna vaccines. The professor is not an anti vaxxer but
believes mrna technology should be aimed at individuals with specific diseases
and not used as a one size fits all cure.

Paige M
2 days ago

Reply to j watson

Consider if the institutions we fund to guard public health were actually doing
their job, there would be no need for Dr Campbell. And here is the thing about
him, he started sounding the alarm for this to be called a pandemic in early Jan
2020, well before WHO did. I have watched him daily since he started as I have a
strong connection to Asia and was shitting myself that we were being so
laissez-fare. He has morphed and evolved as the science has. He has had
missteps, invited scrutiny, changes his opinion with new evidence and apologizes
when he is wrong. He’s into this for three years. You pulling one study he
misrepresented is hardly compelling. His integrity is EXACTLY what is missing
now in the world. Your one link aptly demonstrates the mechanism you are
deriding other people of here which is not doing the work. Seems you fall into
that category.

Carmel Shortall
1 day ago

Reply to j watson

“His poor science has been debunked”

By whom and where?

Robbie K
2 days ago

Reply to B Emery

His videos have all been debunked. Playing to his biased audience.

-9

N Forster
2 days ago

Reply to Robbie K

All been debunked? All? I think you’re being a little silly.

Iris Violet
1 day ago

Reply to Robbie K

It is a strange thing how anyone can say that someone is spreading
‘misinformation’ or that their conclusions are ‘debunked’. And thus it must be
so. Dr Campbell is indeed an older man recording himself in a bungalow guest
room somewhere. However he has the medical knowledge and rational capability to
interpret data and this he does calmly, rationally and over the last year more
and more incredulously. I have seen his developing surprise and frustration and
have found solace in not being the only one utterly disappointed and frankly
flabbergasted at the lack of data driven investigation and governance. His
complete deception matches mine. He is the first to invite others to speak with
him and discuss or counter his findings and to please engage and change his mind
but this has not happened. His calm analysis helped me through a time where I
was convinced everyone around me had lost their minds. ‘Covid grandpa’ John
Campbell is and will always an absolute hero to me and I expect many others.

Paige M
1 day ago

Reply to Robbie K

Can you point us to the official Dr. John Campbell debunking site that refutes
everything in his several hundred videos? I’m not talking about the YouTube fact
checkers with their illustrious credentials……for god sake find a new target.
There are many out there that deserve your scrutiny this one does not.

Saul D
2 days ago

Analysis of post-Covid impacts is cloudy at best. The data is opaque and
difficult to parse due to confounding factors. The vaccine was taken by large
numbers of people, so even small and rare side-effects (eg sub 1 in 100,000
events) will show up as hundreds of cases when applied to a population of 40-50
million – and, as with man-bites-dog, rare cases generate more news.
The value of the vaccine then depends strongly on how you weigh risk. Going
all-or-nothing is just as unhelpful as the panic-struck you-must-be-vaccinated
crowd who banned unvaccinated relatives from family gatherings. It was the best
guess at the time, when time was of the essence.
However, we now have time for reflection, and that needs to be done openly, and
in detail. Even if the vaccine was the right answer, governments have lost a lot
of trust. Too much happened behind closed doors. Too much was compelled, rather
than advised. Too many experts were presenting their views as ‘truth’ when
really they were making guesses – informed guesses, but still guesses – and
opposing voices were closed out.
There is a need for a sea-change in approach to complex information, not least
because we’re at the threshold of an AI revolution, when computers will tell us
and show us things that seem plausable, but we won’t immediately know if they
are true or reliable. How do we become better at weighing up what we are told
when there isn’t one right answer? How do we distinguish between being right, or
being lucky?

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Saul D

You won’t, because you’re not interested.

All the evidence is there to reach informed conclusions. It’s been there from
the earliest days. Just as with the #ClimateScam.

You just don’t want to take responsibility for your own thinking.

Saul D
1 day ago

Reply to John Sullivan

If you’ve looked at all the evidence, you can provide the pros and cons from
both points of view. For instance, what would you say is the rate of adverse
events from the vaccine (with suitable statistical source material behind it)?
And how many lives do you think were saved by the vaccine (again with source and
numbers please)? Both numbers are needed if you’re aiming for an ‘informed
conclusion’.
I’ve looked a load of statistics and academic papers and the ongoing mortality
data – very little I see is clear one way or another. This will get clearer with
time, but there is a lot of anecdote and oddities floating around but not much
in terms of hard well-founded numbers at present.

Ben M
3 days ago

There has been little explanation of how mRNA vaccines operate.
First the definition of vaccine was changed – so these gene editing procedures
were redefined for 2 reasons – firstly the safety checking on gene editing is
far more stringent and secondly people would have been far more hesitant.
The mRNA gets our own cells to manufacture spike protein – the very thing that
causes covid. The idea is we will manufacture antibodies against this antigen
and become immune for a while(although the subtleties of our immune system B
cells and T cells are only involved against the virus). However the vaccine has
no stop manufacture mechanism. At first they said a few days – now said 60 days
BUT that is because they have only checked up to 60 days.
Elder people have a weaker immune system , the vast majority of the rest of us a
very efficient one – particularly if it is stress tested in our early years.

Iris C
2 days ago

I live in a very social society with many different clubs and activities, taking
people out at night and giving a focus to their days. This all changed with the
lockdowns.
Habits are easily formed causing resultant isolation.. I looked with horror at
the florist’s window the other day and saw ten death notices up – never seen
anything like that before.
“Turning one’s face to the wall” does happen! Fanciful, you might think, but
this is seen when devoted widows or widowers die within a week or two of their
spouse’s death.

Paige M
2 days ago

Reply to Iris C

This just doesn’t explain the number of young people dying.

j watson
3 days ago

We must continue to analyse and research the pattern of excess deaths. We cannot
learn crucial lessons if we don’t. However it always remains remarkable how
quickly some of the commentariat want to short circuit that and assume they know
the answers.
Much can depend on what baseline for excess deaths is used by a statistical
analysis. ONS uses different to IFoA and changes the conclusion. That said
Author is correct an underlying pattern appears trans-national (at least where
good stats are kept)
The evidence suggests that covid-19 increases the risk of cardiovascular
problems even months after infection and could in part be driving excess deaths.
Covid-19 itself remains the sixth leading cause of death, causing 200-400 deaths
weekly—a reminder that this virus remains a threat for the foreseeable future.
In the UK people may not be receiving the care they need from an NHS that was
already overstretched pre-pandemic and is now coping with unprecedented backlogs
of care and pressures on emergency services. 10 years ago 60k patients waited
4hrs or more for A&E treatment. It’s now 600k, a 10 fold increase. That is going
to make a significant difference. A lack of timely care can be especially life
threatening for people with acute cardiovascular problems.
ONS analysis shows about 3300 excess deaths occurred during the heatwaves
experienced in mostly in older people. So we are still sifting some
‘particulars’ to the 2022 data.
Further analyses are needed – what’s driving them, and how long they are likely
to last. Covid-19 remains threat, esp to those with cardiovascular disease and
diabetes. It does feel intuitive that enhanced isolation from Lockdowns will be
a factor and Author right to draw attention, and we must learn the lessons for
the future. What of course we also lack is the data from China where we could
better compare what happens when a different strategy is pursued.

Chris W
3 days ago

Reply to j watson

You are totally correct. The world is full of people who pore over statistics
and try to propose theories to explain them – they usually call themselves
Social Scientists.

However, without all these stats and looking only at the UK…. We know that GPs
don’t want to see their patients (like everyone else they want to work from
home), we know that universities and medical schools don’t want to force
students to be good by applying pressure, we know that A&E waiting times are
longer, we know that waiting lists for treatment are getting longer and longer –
so we can expect life expectancies to be shorter from now on. So, we are not
seeing more excess deaths but a movement of the average itself.

If you use the term excess deaths you tend to look for an easy answer. I suggest
that we are merely creating a new norm.

Steve Murray
2 days ago

Reply to Chris W

I’d agree with the inappropriate use of “excess deaths” in this situation. It’s
rather like the use of the term “poverty” in that it can be manipulated
according to whichever statistical model one prefers, and with accompanying
emotional loading.
Specific instances cited such as the number of young, fit athletes having
cardiac events above the norm should be thoroughly investigated. The idea
though, that the number of deaths across entire populations can be attributed to
a particular causal factor isn’t going to take us to where we need to be in
terms of how to deal with future pandemics.

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Steve Murray

Nothing will take you where you “need to be in terms of how to deal with future
pandemics”.

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to j watson

“Covid-19 itself remains the sixth leading cause of death”

No, it doesn’t. Your post therefore has no credibility.

CHARLES STANHOPE
3 days ago

Given that those who produce and profit by the Vaccines have been total legal
IMPUNITY what else would one expect?

This whole farrago couple with the COVID scam is rapidly turning into the
greatest confidence trick perpetrated on the human race since the Resurrection.

Fortunately I have been hit by a blast of *COVID-24 and will miss the
denouement! (hopefully.)

(* NOT a typo, but tomorrow’s virus. TODAY.)

Last edited 3 days ago by stanhopecharles344
9

Steve Murray
2 days ago

Reply to CHARLES STANHOPE

If you return from the dead, let us know what the future looks like!

CHARLES STANHOPE
2 days ago

Reply to Steve Murray

‘Wilco’!
Rather sadly I am also going to have miss tonight’s “51st Bloody Sunday
Anniversary Dinner”.

Last edited 2 days ago by stanhopecharles344
1

Judy Johnson
2 days ago

Reply to CHARLES STANHOPE

You will be able to tell us the truth about the resurrection as well as ell us
the future as Steve suggests below!

Ben M
3 days ago

One final thing about mRNA vaccine – which made me go cold when I found out. All
mRNA is made up of 4 bases arranged in specific orders. One, uridine, found in
all living things , was changed to pseudouridine, in the Pfizer vaccine normally
found in some yeasts. I found out by reading a Biontech financial report.
Ithen went on to read the original Wikipedia article on this – this has now been
significantly changed.

Douglas McNeish
2 days ago

The health experts and political leaders who concocted “The Science,” and
imposed it as a canon on the public, are too heavily invested in their
narratives to backtrack now. And the difficulty of doing so now becomes ever
more difficult as the MSM begin -slowly, very slowly – to break ranks on
peddling the “correct” Science. Likely, they will continue their repression of
alternative facts, and call them out as the rantings of extreme right wing
conspiracy theorists, and hope to wait it out until the public are sufficiently
distracted by other promoted news stories, such as the Ukraine War, to move on.

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Douglas McNeish

Yes, but since the MSM have no idea of “the truth”, they are hardly likely to
have a Damascene conversion whereby the entire false narrative suddenly
crumbles.

Jeff Cunningham
3 days ago

Vinay Prasad wrote a substack article about the difficulties surrounding excess
deaths recently. It’s worth reading.
https://vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com/p/excess-mortality

Johann Strauss
2 days ago

Reply to Jeff Cunningham

While I’m a big fan of Vinay Prassad, and indeed have met him, I believe on this
one he’s wrong. In my mind the issue is not whether there happen to be excess
deaths in the over 80s. There could be any number of reasons for that. What I’m
concerned about is excess deaths among the say 30-50 year olds. I’m also
concerned about the large number of collapses/cardiac arrests etc in young
athletes, especially football/soccer players. For sure these occur rarely, but
when they do under normal circumstances it’s a huge deal; they don’t occur on an
almost weekly basis. And interestingly, these deaths/cardiac arrest/cardiac
events seem to have died down now that the push for boosters has basically
flopped and fewer and fewer people are getting boosted.

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Jeff Cunningham

Very little, if anything, from Vinay Prasad is “worth reading”.

It’s shallow nonsense, based on undeclared assumptions, to increase his profile
and his revenue stream.

But you do you.

Ardath Blauvelt
2 days ago

Given that the authorities in every land were entirely responsible for their
Covid response at every level, this disaster will never be exposed.

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Ardath Blauvelt

For “it” to be exposed, someone has to first try. No one is trying – as in,
there is no coordinated, funded effort to establish the full facts. Only
individuals and small, disparate, poorly funded groups looking mostly at point
issues.

Marie Tuil
2 days ago

I think an important factor is mental health: young people are
disproportionately affected by mental illness, especially after the lockdowns,
and are less resilient, which limits their ability to recover from the Covid
crisis.
Mental illness, such as depression, can lead to suicide but also a variety of
physical illnesses, including cardiovascular ones.

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Marie Tuil

Agreed. Wise words.

Paul Collyer
1 day ago

You might be interested to know that in Western Europe one country has notably
less excess mortality than others since 2020, and in fact a deaths deficit in
young adults.

Yes, the one that chose not to enforce stay home orders, lockdowns or mask
mandates but rely on its citizens sense and discretion.

And, yes, a country that also vaccinated the vast majority of its adults with
mRNA.

Yes, Sweden.

Cho Jinn
2 days ago

Last, but not least. We have a winner.

Dougie Undersub
2 days ago

There’s a hole in your argument about the hole in the argument, Thomas.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/01/08/not-just-nhs-health-services-imploding-europe/

CHARLES STANHOPE
2 days ago

Reply to Dougie Undersub

May I ask why your comment on the Peter HITCHENS article been deleted?

Malcolm Knott
2 days ago

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad. They have made us woke
mad and now they are starting to destroy us.

Ben Scanlon
2 days ago

It sounds facetious to say it but I think a lot of people are just dying because
they don’t want to live.

Carmel Shortall
1 day ago

IT’S THE VACCINES STOOPID!!

Paul Kelly
2 days ago

For 10/15 years I have been prone to multiple serious chest infections each
year. I had none from late 2019 until late 2022.
Lockdowns/Social distancing protected me not just from Covid but from other
infections too – only when I started mixing normally did I pick up an infection
– in particular following a short-haul cattle class flight – a repeat of a
pattern I had observed in the past, and the reason I take prophylactic
antibiotics. I am currently running a low-grade chest infection/productive cough
that has lasted 3/4 weeks.
I have had 6 doses of various Covid vaccines.
Many people I know complain of having coughs and colds for the first time since
before the pandemic.
Occam’s Razor would suggest the simple mechanism of “incidental protection”
followed by a surge of various infections as the most probable cause.

Paige M
2 days ago

Reply to Paul Kelly

Your Occam’s razor is too Occam. This is a highly, highly complex situation with
multiple causes across ages. The excess death question is a combination of many
things and includes the vaccine as well as. It’s not solely the vaccine but
acting like it’s not contributing is making it seem more than it is.

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Paul Kelly

“I have had 6 doses of various Covid vaccines”

Genius.

Carmel Shortall
1 day ago

Reply to Paul Kelly

“I take prophylactic antibiotics.”

Well that explains a lot…

Hardee Hodges
1 day ago

Useful to read “eBook: Find Out What Pfizer, FDA Tried to Conceal” to see what
Pfizer data say and what our health officials didn’t analyze well. There was a
lot of information in their own data that is troubling. And we are now in a huge
experiment to discover what damages the mRNA platform might reveal.

Mitsu Hadeishi
2 days ago

It’s been known for a long time that COVID causes large increases in the risk of
many health issues. For example from a 2021 study in the BMJ:

“The risk for specific new sequelae attributable to SARS-Cov-2 infection after
the acute phase, including chronic respiratory failure, cardiac arrythmia,
hypercoagulability, encephalopathy, peripheral neuropathy, amnesia (memory
difficulty), diabetes, liver test abnormalities, myocarditis, anxiety, and
fatigue, was significantly greater than in the three comparator groups (2020,
2019, and viral lower respiratory tract illness groups) (all P<0.001).
Significant risk differences because of SARS-CoV-2 infection ranged from 0.02 to
2.26 per 100 people (all P<0.001), and hazard ratios ranged from 1.24 to 25.65
compared with the 2020 comparator group."

"Conclusions The results indicate the excess risk of developing new clinical
sequelae after the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection, including specific types
of sequelae less commonly seen in other viral illnesses. Although individuals
who were older, had pre-existing conditions, and were admitted to hospital
because of covid-19 were at greatest excess risk, younger adults (aged ≤50),
those with no pre-existing conditions, or those not admitted to hospital for
covid-19 also had an increased risk of developing new clinical sequelae. The
greater risk for incident sequelae after the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection
is relevant for healthcare planning."

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1098

Furthermore, vaccination rates in high income countries are strongly negatively
correlated with excess deaths both early on and now. See the visualizations at
the end of this article:

https://pandem-ic.com/excess-mortality-and-vaccination/

-3

John Sullivan
2 days ago

Reply to Mitsu Hadeishi

Your post proves only that you understand very little, if anything at all.

Using “studies” to conflate 2020 pandemic data with 2023 Omicron and vaccine
risks is just about the most laughable “science” imaginable.

Hendrik Mentz
3 days ago

Fake news! Conspiracy theory. Bring in the fact checkers.

Last edited 3 days ago by Hendrik Mentz
-8

Nicky Samengo-Turner
3 days ago

Big deal?! The only certainty in life is death, and frankly any afterlife must
be better than nu britn?

-9

Tagged COVID-19, Europe, excess deaths, lockdown, UK

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