www.sfgate.com Open in urlscan Pro
151.101.64.200  Public Scan

Form analysis
1 forms found in the DOM

GET /search/

<form class="pageHeader--search-form" action="/search/" method="get">
  <input type="hidden" name="action" value="search">
  <input type="hidden" name="firstRequest" value="1">
  <input type="hidden" name="searchindex" value="solr">
  <div class="fieldset">
    <input class="pageHeader--search-input" id="search" name="query" type="text" value="" placeholder="Search" aria-label="search">
    <button class="searchButton btn" value="" name="search" type="submit" aria-label="search"></button>
  </div>
</form>

Text Content

Skip to main content
SFGATE Homepage
Currently Reading
Oddsmakers, computer models can't decide whether Warriors are title favorites or
biggest underdogs
Next Up:'Substantial' weather pattern shift coming to...
 * Newsletters
   
 * Sign In
   
   
   
   


 * Home
   * About SFGATE
   * Contact SFGATE
   * Newsletters
   * Ethics Policy
   * Advertise With Us
   * Privacy Notice / Notice At Collection
   * Terms of Use
   * Ad Choices
   * Classifieds
   * Do Not Sell My Personal Info
 * News
   * Bay Area
   * Nation
   * World
   * Crime
   * Unsolved
   * Weather
   * Education
   * Jobs
   * Health
   * Sponsored Content
 * Local
   * SF History
   * Businesses
   * Places
   * Essays
   * Sponsored Content
 * Politics
 * Sports
   * 49ers
   * Giants
   * A's
   * Warriors
   * Soccer
   * Sharks
   * TV Listings
   * College
   * Preps
 * culture
   * Movies
   * Music
   * Streaming
   * Characters
   * Tech & Social Media
   * Things To Do
   * Sponsored: SF Culture
   * Marketplace
   * Cannabis
   * Senior Living
 * Food + Drink
   * Restaurants
   * Reservations
 * Travel
   * Tahoe
   * California Parks
   * Disneyland
   * Hawaii
   * Napa
   * SF Insider: Things to do
   * Wine Country
   * Monterey-Carmel
 * Real Estate
   * New Homes
   * (Virtual) Open Homes
   * Luxury
   * Rentals
   * Mortgage Rates
   * Place a Real Estate Ad
   * Neighborhood Guides
   * Home & Garden
 * Obits
   * Obituaries
   * Place an Obituary
 * Coupons
 * Buy Area

 * Home
   * About SFGATE
   * Contact SFGATE
   * Newsletters
   * Ethics Policy
   * Advertise With Us
   * Privacy Notice / Notice At Collection
   * Terms of Use
   * Ad Choices
   * Classifieds
   * Do Not Sell My Personal Info
 * Local
   * SF History
   * Businesses
   * Places
   * Essays
   * Sponsored Content

 * News
   * Bay Area
   * Nation
   * World
   * Crime
   * Unsolved
   * Weather
   * Education
   * Jobs
   * Health
   * Sponsored Content
 * Food + Drink
   * Restaurants
   * Reservations
 * Real Estate
   * New Homes
   * (Virtual) Open Homes
   * Luxury
   * Rentals
   * Mortgage Rates
   * Place a Real Estate Ad
   * Neighborhood Guides
   * Home & Garden

 * culture
   * Movies
   * Music
   * Streaming
   * Characters
   * Tech & Social Media
   * Things To Do
   * Sponsored: SF Culture
   * Marketplace
   * Cannabis
   * Senior Living
 * Obits
   * Obituaries
   * Place an Obituary
 * Coupons
 * Buy Area

 * Sports
   * 49ers
   * Giants
   * A's
   * Warriors
   * Soccer
   * Sharks
   * TV Listings
   * College
   * Preps
 * Politics
 * Travel
   * Tahoe
   * California Parks
   * Disneyland
   * Hawaii
   * Napa
   * SF Insider: Things to do
   * Wine Country
   * Monterey-Carmel

 * Home
   * About SFGATE
   * Contact SFGATE
   * Newsletters
   * Ethics Policy
   * Advertise With Us
   * Privacy Notice / Notice At Collection
   * Terms of Use
   * Ad Choices
   * Classifieds
   * Do Not Sell My Personal Info
 * Food + Drink
   * Restaurants
   * Reservations

 * News
   * Bay Area
   * Nation
   * World
   * Crime
   * Unsolved
   * Weather
   * Education
   * Jobs
   * Health
   * Sponsored Content
 * Obits
   * Obituaries
   * Place an Obituary

 * culture
   * Movies
   * Music
   * Streaming
   * Characters
   * Tech & Social Media
   * Things To Do
   * Sponsored: SF Culture
   * Marketplace
   * Cannabis
   * Senior Living
 * Politics
 * Buy Area

 * Sports
   * 49ers
   * Giants
   * A's
   * Warriors
   * Soccer
   * Sharks
   * TV Listings
   * College
   * Preps
 * Coupons
 * Real Estate
   * New Homes
   * (Virtual) Open Homes
   * Luxury
   * Rentals
   * Mortgage Rates
   * Place a Real Estate Ad
   * Neighborhood Guides
   * Home & Garden

 * Travel
   * Tahoe
   * California Parks
   * Disneyland
   * Hawaii
   * Napa
   * SF Insider: Things to do
   * Wine Country
   * Monterey-Carmel
 * Local
   * SF History
   * Businesses
   * Places
   * Essays
   * Sponsored Content

 * Home
   * About SFGATE
   * Contact SFGATE
   * Newsletters
   * Ethics Policy
   * Advertise With Us
   * Privacy Notice / Notice At Collection
   * Terms of Use
   * Ad Choices
   * Classifieds
   * Do Not Sell My Personal Info
 * Politics

 * News
   * Bay Area
   * Nation
   * World
   * Crime
   * Unsolved
   * Weather
   * Education
   * Jobs
   * Health
   * Sponsored Content
 * Coupons

 * culture
   * Movies
   * Music
   * Streaming
   * Characters
   * Tech & Social Media
   * Things To Do
   * Sponsored: SF Culture
   * Marketplace
   * Cannabis
   * Senior Living
 * Buy Area

 * Sports
   * 49ers
   * Giants
   * A's
   * Warriors
   * Soccer
   * Sharks
   * TV Listings
   * College
   * Preps
 * Local
   * SF History
   * Businesses
   * Places
   * Essays
   * Sponsored Content

 * Travel
   * Tahoe
   * California Parks
   * Disneyland
   * Hawaii
   * Napa
   * SF Insider: Things to do
   * Wine Country
   * Monterey-Carmel
 * Food + Drink
   * Restaurants
   * Reservations

 * Real Estate
   * New Homes
   * (Virtual) Open Homes
   * Luxury
   * Rentals
   * Mortgage Rates
   * Place a Real Estate Ad
   * Neighborhood Guides
   * Home & Garden
 * Obits
   * Obituaries
   * Place an Obituary


MOST POPULAR

'Substantial' weather pattern shift coming to California in May

New problem found at Millennium Tower, now tilting over 25 inches

DA: Local cop masturbated in front of family during violence call

Brutal Calif. mountain lion attack leaves dog’s life in balance

ESPN analyst who ripped Steph Curry in 2019: 'I was delusional'

Bay Area teen fills in for Pearl Jam's drummer at Oakland show

This dive bar is a relic of pre-digital SF

Horoscope for Tuesday, 5/17/22 by Christopher Renstrom

This California Republican has a plea to Democratic voters

Elon Musk's mom, Maye, becomes oldest Sports Illustrated model

How the Bay Area became California's latest COVID hot spot

Calif. official admits he was driver in crash that killed student



Sports // Golden State Warriors


ODDSMAKERS, COMPUTER MODELS CAN'T DECIDE WHETHER WARRIORS ARE TITLE FAVORITES OR
BIGGEST UNDERDOGS

Grant Marek, SFGATE
May 16, 2022


Golden State Warriors star Stephen Curry flexes against the Memphis Grizzlies at
Chase Center on May 13, 2022, in San Francisco.

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

The NBA's final four is set, and the Golden State Warriors are the favorites to
emerge as the NBA champions.



They're also the biggest underdogs.

Oddsmakers and computer models are split when it comes to the Dubs' chances of
holding up the Larry O'Brien trophy for the seventh time ever — Golden State is
both the betting favorite to win the title and the biggest underdog in two
computer models on prominent blogs.

As of Monday, the Warriors (+120) were a considerable title favorite on BetMGM,
following by the Boston Celtics (+220), Miami Heat (+425) and the Dubs' Western
Conference Finals opponent, the Dallas Mavericks (+650).



Meanwhile, longtime Boston homer Bill Simmons' sports site The Ringer gave
Golden State just a 15% chance of winning the NBA title, according to their "NBA
Odds Machine." According to the site, the odds are generated based on "team
strength as measured by point differential — a historically strong predictor of
future success — with adjustments for individual wrinkles like injuries and
schedules," though they don't share any actual methodology. The favorite,
according to Simmons and a staff that subsists strictly on a diet of Dunkin'
Donuts coffee and Wahlburgers double-deckers? The Boston Celtics, who have a 44%
chance to win it all, a coincidence that fans were quick to note:

> the ringer nba odds machine: pic.twitter.com/9MV5qfu1ji
> 
> — drinking the haterade (@kingantedwards) May 16, 2022

To be fair, the Celtics have been the NBA's hottest team since January and have
knocked off back-to-back legitimate title contenders in the Brooklyn Nets and
defending NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks. To be less fair, of course Simmons' site
has the Celtics as the overwhelming favorites.



But The Ringer is not alone.

Nate Silver, who owns significantly fewer Red Sox beanies than Simmons (and is a
self-admitted Detroit fan), has the Warriors even further out of the hunt.
According to FiveThirtyEight (the data journalism hub he founded), Golden State
has just a 7% chance of winning the title using the site's RAPTOR player
predictions (which don't account for wins and losses but are instead based
entirely on "each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar
NBA players"). The Celtics are the favorites according to that model, with a 43%
chance.

Top Picks In Shopping
 * Shopping The West Finals start Wednesday. Tickets are not cheap.
   
 * Shopping LEGO is releasing an Optimus Prime toy that actually...
   
 * Life Hot tip: Disneyland tickets are cheaper at Target
   
 * Shopping This $38 lululemon bag is all over TikTok — and it’s on sale
   

FiveThirtyEight's alternate model, which factors in Elo ratings ("a measure of
team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of
opponent”), gives the Dubs a 16% chance of winning the Finals and bumps the C's
up to a 47% chance.

So who's right? Well, for one, Vegas odds aren't a predictor of anything really
— they're a reflection of how much betting has occurred on a particular team and
how Vegas would like to direct future bets. An efficient market moves lines to
50-50 probabilities and they make money by charging you to make a bet.



On the other hand, the FiveThirtyEight computer model gives the Mavericks a 73%
chance of beating the Warriors who 1) hold homecourt advantage (where they're a
perfect 6-0 this postseason), 2) are the consensus pick to beat the Mavericks by
an overwhelming margin amongst NBA pundits, and 3) have four players on their
team with three NBA championships apiece. (Luka Doncic, meanwhile, has never
even reached an NBA Finals.)

So, no one is right. But also, maybe everyone is right??

The Warriors and Mavericks will find out starting Wednesday at 6 p.m. in Game 1
of the Western Conference Finals in San Francisco.







Top Picks In Shopping
 * Shopping The West Finals start Wednesday. Tickets are not cheap.
   
 * Shopping LEGO is releasing an Optimus Prime toy that actually...
   
 * Life Hot tip: Disneyland tickets are cheaper at Target
   
 * Shopping This $38 lululemon bag is all over TikTok — and it’s on sale
   




Written By
Grant Marek
Reach Grant on

Grant Marek is SFGATE's Editor in Chief. He's spent the last 21 years in various
editorial roles for the likes of Thrillist, Yahoo! Sports, the S.F. Examiner,
The Desert Sun, The Santa Clarita Signal, and Sports Illustrated. He's a
graduate of UC Berkeley, and has lived in the Bay Area for 18 years. Email:
grant.marek@sfgate.com

Top shopping picks
 * Asian American and Pacific Island brands to support this month
 * Hot tip: Disneyland tickets are cheaper at Target
 * The 20 best dating apps of 2022
 * Insider: Apple working on USB-C AirPods & accessories



 * 
 * 
 * 

Return to Top
 * About
   * Our Company
   * Privacy Notice / Notice at Collection
   * Your California Privacy Rights
   * Interest Based Ads
   * Terms of Use
   * Advertising
   * Careers
 * Contact
   * Customer Service
   * Newsroom Contacts
   * Place an Ad / Classifieds
   CCPA
   * Do Not Sell My Personal Information
 * Quick Links
   * Cars
   * Jobs
   * Recruitment
   * Home Services
 *  
   * Weather
   * Obituaries
   * SF Marketplace Classifieds
   * Market Client Articles
   * Public Notices

©2022 Hearst


THE SIGN IN SERVICE IS NOT FUNCTIONING RIGHT NOW.


PLEASE TRY AGAIN IN A FEW MINUTES

If the issues continue, please contact our customer service at

Phone:

Email:


PLEASE LOG IN TO VIEW YOUR PROFILE.

Sign In
Welcome back,


PROFILE SETTINGS

Sign up for newsletters, change password and more


ACTIVATE DIGITAL ACCESS

Set up your free digital account


SUBSCRIPTION & BILLING

Place a vacation hold, make a payment and more


MEMBERSHIP CENTER

Access your exclusive member benefits

Sign Out


You must be signed in to comment

is currently signed in

Sign In


YOUR CHOICES REGARDING COOKIES

We and third parties may deploy cookies and similar technologies when you use
our site. Please review the information below and select the cookies that you
want to enable. You can continue to the site without accepting these cookies but
certain features may not be available or function properly.

EDITORIAL, FUNCTIONALITY AND SOCIAL MEDIA COOKIES

We use third-party services for commenting, videos, and embedding posts as part
of our news coverage. The providers of these cookies may use the data as
explained in their privacy policies.
 * Twitter(Privacy Policy)
 * Facebook(Privacy Policy)
 * Select All

PERFORMANCE, CONTENT RECOMMENDATION AND PERSONALIZATION COOKIES

We use our own and third-party services to provide content recommendations and
customize your user experience and advertising. The providers of these cookies
may use the data as explained in their privacy policies.
 * Taboola(Privacy Policy)
 * Nativo(Privacy Policy)
 * Blueconic(Privacy Policy)
 * Realm
 * Select All

ANALYTICS

We use cookies to analyze and measure traffic to the site so that we know our
audience, what stories are read, where visitors come from, and how long they
stay. You can opt out of these analytics cookies by unselecting the boxes below.
 * Parsely(Privacy Policy)
 * Google Analytics(Privacy Policy)
 * Chartbeat(Privacy Policy)

Privacy Notice Continue
Privacy Settings