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Wiggle-match radiocarbon dating of the Taupo eruption References Singles and
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Either your web browser doesn't support Javascript or it is currently turned
off. In the latter case, please turn on Javascript support in your web browser
and reload this page. All other data plotted are from the relevant published and
cited papers. Arising from Richard N. Holdaway et al.


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Nature Communications HDK18 propose that trees growing at Pureora and other
near-source areas that were killed and buried by the climactic ignimbrite event
were affected by 14 C-depleted magmatic CO 2. Four parts to their hypothesis are
considered here. The 14 C-date compilation used by HDK18 to claim that the
Pureora and other near-source dates are anomalously old is flawed. This wide
range of ages was a principal reason why wiggle-match dating of the Pureora
buried forest logs was undertaken 4.

Indeed, many of the apparently anomalous oldest reported ages are from analyses
dating to the s—60s 9. Even with modern techniques and consistent protocols,
there remain inter-laboratory differences that preclude simple collation of 14 C
data sets. For example, Hogg et al. Comparisons of radiocarbon concentrations
from New Zealand and Tasmania trees.

S2 45 values and the Taupo eruption deposits are also unclear, with the
stratigraphic context often lacking, impairing the value of the age estimates.
An example of best practice is from a section 10 at Kaipo bog, far removed from
any possible magmatic 14 C contamination 3 , which incorporates the Taupo
eruption deposits. The potential impact of injected 14 C-depleted magmatic CO 2
on reservoir ages in Lake Taupo and the Waikato River draining the lake is
documented HDK18 present 14 C dates of organic materials from this area, i.

We discount this proposition at the Pureora forest site for several reasons.
Groundwater at the site is sourced from local rainfall 1.

Third, the Pureora area also shows no traces of young faulting 12 that could
have channelled putative magmatic CO 2. Fourth, the mechanism of gaseous
exchange to introduce 14 C-depleted carbon into groundwater at the Pureora site
is most unlikely. Groundwater flow at the site will be dominated by vertically
downwards flow of rainfall recharge from the soil layers to deeper units and
thus atmospheric CO 2 must dominate carbon dioxide flux at the site.

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The notion that magmatic carbon could be introduced into groundwater of the
Pureora site from magmatic sources beneath Taupo volcano or anywhere in the
central North Island , or somehow be introduced against gravity from the Waikato
River water, is implausible. HDK18 state that in the Pureora tanekaha tree-ring
record, 14 C levels plateaued or declined as the eruption approached p. However,
the fitting of straight-line functions to 14 C concentrations is meaningless, as
non-linearity in 14 C levels is universally recognised and underpins
international calibration curves e.

Here we re-plot the Pureora tanekaha 14 C data against known calendar-age data
from Northland northernmost North Island kauri 14 and Tasmanian huon pine
Lagarostrobos franklinii 13 , 15 Fig. What HDK18 assert as evidence for isotopic
dilution is simply a 14 C wiggle in atmospheric 14 C common to all three data
sets. In addition, HDK18 Fig. If correct, one would expect wiggle matching to
derive a younger date for the eruption if the 14 C data from this year interval
were excluded from the wiggle matching. The two sets were then wiggle-matched
against SHCal13 The two sets considered separately give statistically identical
model eruption dates both to each other and to the full year dataset.

Impact on the Taupo eruption date estimate as a result of dividing the year Wk
Pureora tanekaha 14 C data series into two sets: an inner fraction, i. The
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2. Not the right property for you? See all properties. Is This Your Tripadvisor
Listing? Claim Your Listing. Which popular attractions are close to Heritage
Court Motel? Nearby attractions include Classic Motorcycle Mecca 1.

See all nearby attractions. What are some of the property amenities at Heritage
Court Motel? This mixed with low interest rates for borrowing, whereas in 63,
people didn't borrow anywhere near as much. So the question is, is NZ better off
as a country by having both parents working? But if we're earning so much more -
why do we have so much debt?


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Or are we speculating that a man will have two wives at some point soon in the
future that he can 'send out to work' as Zach Smith puts it. Clearly houses are
less affordable so incomes have not increased at the same rate as house prices
in the last few years if not longer.

Some incomes are much higher, having risen faster than inflation and house
prices, but i think most have not. And no, I do not think we as a society are
necessarily better off. Families no longer often have the choice to afford a
stay at home parent, even for those families when it would be better for the
kids and would vastly reduce various psychological and emotional burdens on the
parents.

Some mothers and fathers would like the opportunity to spend crucial years at
home with their children and they simply can't afford it. In other words, x in
the exponential function here is the mean long-term annual growth value shown in
Graph 3, which I calculated as being 1. Trouble is, exponential functions in
closed systems simply cannot carry on forever. So what's the outcome? A crash
into some kind of limit. Thank you very much for this data David.

Sure, the market is overcooked now and it may decline a little or stay stagnant
for a while and just as surely, houses will be much more expensive in another 12
years time.

History is interesting, but i am more interested in the future. Steve Keen is
always worth listening to. I'm not going to bet against his prediction of a
crash in the NZ housing market within 1 to 2 years. You got me S R. I wasted 32
minutes listening to your radio link If anyone wants to listen to the radio
link, there is a brief mention of the NZ housing market at about 18 minutes in.
One factor that you have to build in is that house sizes have been growing and
houses are also becoming more complex to construct.

Regardless of inflationary impacts, a new house constructed today is likely to
be twice the size of one built in the 's, plus have more complex kitchen and
bathrooms. This is on top of the double glazing and insulation. However, I think
the burst of price increases in the past ten years is beyond the change in size.
However, the ability to build to meet demand has been constrained by the added
complexity of building regulations which has also added to prices.


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Some incomes are much higher, having risen faster than inflation and house
prices, but i think most have not. Room types may vary. Personally though, I am
not forecasting a massive correction. The minimum age. On your return to
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Indeed people want, safe, warm housing. Ignore the regulations though,
speculative demand, the price of land and its development costs looks like the
biggest drivers in prices. Then it popped as demand collapsed and prices dropped
a long way. So if we ever take out immigration and stop allowing foreign
ownership in land I think we'll see significant price drops. Try finding a
section where you can build something like a Universal Home from the 70s or
place a relocatable.

However that doesn't alter the fact that this boom since has been much milder
than the previous one Whilst the data is NZ wide it clearly reveals that this
cycle has so far delivered relatively low growth cyclically compared to the last
property cycles.

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This boom is not over yet even though it may look that way at present, the high
net migration and lack of adequate building consents to satisfy demand will
continue to fuel the tail end of this boom. Whilst will likely show a
significant drop in capital growth rates its likely we will see double digit
growth in and maybe even before the real slump arrives in earnest.

Its not a problem taking out land, it allows a better gauge of the overall
health of our economy. Not sure about the boom not being over, I think there are
a lot of people doing wishful thinking and gambling it isnt. So after watching
this for over a decade my personal conclusion is I cant see any sound way to
measure how the market is going to do. However the recent tax cuts proposed by
National in the budget are a tested and true way to pork the system. Giving tax
cuts or FHB cash bonuses seems to work every time to recover a flagging housing
market, so if National wins in September and I think they will I think your
projection is very reasonable.

that spans much of New Zealand's North Island and pre- dates human arrival2.
Holdaway et al.3 (HDK18 hereafter) propose that the current Taupo eruption date
.