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Winter Holidays


NRF PREDICTS HEALTHY HOLIDAY SALES AS CONSUMERS NAVIGATE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS

For immediate release
November 3, 2022
press@nrf.com
(855) NRF-PRESS
Danielle Inman
Senior Director, Media Relations


WASHINGTON – Holiday spending is expected to be healthy even with recent
inflationary challenges, as the National Retail Federation today forecast that
holiday retail sales during November and December will grow between 6% and 8%
over 2021 to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion. Last year’s holiday
sales grew 13.5% over 2020 and totaled $889.3 billion, shattering previous
records. Holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 4.9% over the past 10
years, with pandemic spending in recent years accounting for considerable gains.

> “In the face of these challenges, many households will supplement spending
> with savings and credit to provide a cushion and result in a positive holiday
> season.”
> 
> NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay

“While consumers are feeling the pressure of inflation and higher prices, and
while there is continued stratification with consumer spending and behavior
among households at different income levels, consumers remain resilient and
continue to engage in commerce,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “In
the face of these challenges, many households will supplement spending with
savings and credit to provide a cushion and result in a positive holiday
season.”



NRF expects that online and other non-store sales, which are included in the
total, to increase between 10% and 12% to between $262.8 billion and $267.6
billion. This figure is up from $238.9 billion last year, which saw
extraordinary growth in digital channels as consumers turned to online shopping
to meet their holiday needs during the pandemic. While ecommerce will remain
important, households are also expected to shift back to in-store shopping and a
more traditional holiday shopping experience.

“This holiday season cycle is anything but typical,” NRF Chief Economist Jack
Kleinhenz said. “NRF’s holiday forecast takes a number of factors into
consideration, but the overall outlook is generally positive as consumer
fundamentals continue to support economic activity. Despite record levels of
inflation, rising interest rates and low levels of confidence, consumers have
been steadfast in their spending and remain in the driver’s seat.”

“The holiday shopping season kicked off earlier this year – a growing trend in
recent years – as shoppers are concerned about inflation and availability of
products,” Kleinhenz said. “Retailers are responding to that demand, as we saw
several major scheduled buying events in October. While this may result in some
sales being pulled forward, we expect to see continued deals and promotions
throughout the remaining months.”

Kleinhenz’ comments mirror NRF’s consumer data, which shows that consumers have
been kicking off their holiday shopping early over the last decade in order to
spread out their budgets and avoid the stress of holiday shopping. This year,
given concerns around inflation, 46% of holiday shoppers said they planned to
browse or buy before November, according to NRF’s annual survey conducted by
Prosper Insights & Analytics. Still, consumers plan to spend $832.84 on average
on gifts and holiday items such as decorations and food, in line with the
average for the last 10 years.

NRF expects retailers will hire between 450,000 and 600,000 seasonal workers.
That compares with 669,800* seasonal hires in 2021. Some of this hiring may have
been pulled into October as many retailers are eager to supplement their
workforces to meet increased consumer demand. 

While retailers face a multitude of challenges, one is totally out of their
hands. Weather, as always, plays a role in holiday retail sales. The National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting warmer-than-average
temperatures for the Southwest, Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard, which cover a
large swath of the U.S. population, but wetter and snowier conditions are
expected for parts of the northern tier. 

NRF’s holiday forecast is in line with the organization’s full year forecast for
retail sales, which predicted retail sales will grow between 6% and 8% to more
than $4.86 trillion in 2022.  

NRF's holiday forecast is based on economic modeling that considers a variety of
indicators including employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income,
consumer credit, previous retail sales and weather. NRF’s calculation excludes
automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail.
NRF defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31.

*The methodology used to calculate holiday retail employment in 2020 was changed
to accommodate the sizeable impact of COVID-19 on overall industry employment.
In 2021, NRF returned to a traditional employment buildup method.

Additional holiday information is available on NRF’s Winter Holidays web page.

LISTEN TO THE PRESS CALL

Holiday Forecast Press Call 2022
Audio file


About NRF
The National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association,
passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help
retail thrive. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the
industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector
employer, contributing $3.9 trillion to annual GDP and supporting one in four
U.S. jobs – 52 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a
voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and
communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global
economies. nrf.com

About Prosper Insights & Analytics
Prosper Insights & Analytics is a global leader in consumer intent data serving
the financial services, marketing technology, and retail industries. We provide
global authoritative market information on U.S. and China consumers via curated
insights and analytics. By integrating a variety of data including economic,
behavioral and attitudinal data, Prosper helps companies accurately predict
consumers’ future behavior to help identify market behaviors, optimize marketing
efforts, and improve the effectiveness of demand generation
campaigns. www.ProsperInsights.com

 

Holiday forecast, Holiday sales, Holiday season, winter holidays, Economy


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