origin-east-www-wpc.woc.noaa.gov
Open in
urlscan Pro
137.75.116.83
Public Scan
Submitted URL: https://origin-east-www-wpc.woc.noaa.gov/#page%3Dovw
Effective URL: https://origin-east-www-wpc.woc.noaa.gov/
Submission Tags: falconsandbox
Submission: On November 19 via api from US — Scanned from DE
Effective URL: https://origin-east-www-wpc.woc.noaa.gov/
Submission Tags: falconsandbox
Submission: On November 19 via api from US — Scanned from DE
Form analysis 7 forms found in the DOM
Name: getForecast — GET https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php
<form target="_blank" name="getForecast" id="getForecast" action="https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php" method="get">
<input id="inputstring" name="inputstring" type="text" size="13" style="font-size: 10px;" title="type in your "City, State" or Zip Code to get a local forecast" value="Local Forecast" onclick="this.value=''">
<input name="btnSearch" id="btnSearch" type="submit" title="type in your "City, State" or Zip Code to get a local forecast" style="font-size: 10px;" value="Go">
</form>GET https://search.usa.gov/search
<form method="get" action="https://search.usa.gov/search" style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0;">
<input type="hidden" name="v:project" value="firstgov">
<label for="query">Search For</label>
<input type="text" name="query" id="query" size="12">
<input type="submit" value="Go">
<p>
<input type="radio" name="affiliate" checked="checked" value="nws.noaa.gov" id="nws">
<label for="nws" class="search-scope">NWS</label>
<input type="radio" name="affiliate" value="noaa.gov" id="noaa">
<label for="noaa" class="search-scope">All NOAA</label>
</p>
</form><form>
<input id="ovw-eng" type="radio" name="format" value="english" onclick="javascript:imgformat('eng');" checked=""><label for="ovw-eng">English</label>
<a id="TABday1F" href="/noaa/noaad1.pdf" style="display: inline;">(PDF)</a>
<a id="TABday2F" href="/noaa/noaad2.pdf" style="display: none">(PDF)</a>
<a id="TABday3F" href="/noaa/noaad3.pdf" style="display: none">(PDF)</a>
<br>
<input id="ovw-esp" type="radio" name="format" value="spanish" onclick="javascript:imgformat('esp');"><label for="ovw-esp">Español</label>
<a id="TABday1EF" href="/noaa/sp_noaad1.pdf" style="display: inline;">(PDF)</a>
<a id="TABday2EF" href="/noaa/sp_noaad2.pdf" style="display: none">(PDF)</a>
<a id="TABday3EF" href="/noaa/sp_noaad3.pdf" style="display: none">(PDF)</a>
<br>
</form><form>
<input id="sfc-std" type="radio" name="format" value="standard" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('namussfc');" checked=""><label for="sfc-std">Standard</label>
<br>
<input id="sfc-sat" type="radio" name="format" value="satellite" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('ussatsfc');"><label for="sfc-sat">Satellite Composite</label>
<br>
<input id="sfc-rad" type="radio" name="format" value="radar" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('radsfcus_exp_new');"><label for="sfc-rad">Radar Composite</label>
<br>
<input id="sfc-baw" type="radio" name="format" value="blckwhite" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('bw');"><label for="sfc-baw">Black and White</label>
<br>
<input id="sfc-frt" type="radio" name="format" value="fronts" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('usfntsfc');"><label for="sfc-frt">Fronts Only</label>
<br>
<!--
****These maps aren't archived, so can't get -24 map for website****
<input id="ovw-esp" type="radio" name="format" value="spanish" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('dwm');">Daily Weather Map<br> background
<br>
<input id="ovw-esp" type="radio" name="format" value="spanish" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('aks');">Alaska
<br>
-->
</form><form>
<input id="qpf-opt1" type="radio" name="format" value="opt1" onclick="javascript:imgformatqpf('opt1');" checked=""><label for="qpf-opt1">24 Hour/Multi Day QPF</label><br>
<input id="qpf-opt2" type="radio" name="format" value="opt2" onclick="javascript:imgformatqpf('opt2');"><label for="qpf-opt2">12-Hourly QPF (Day 1-3)</label>
<br>
<input id="qpf-opt3" type="radio" name="format" value="opt3" onclick="javascript:imgformatqpf('opt3');"><label for="qpf-opt3">6-Hourly QPF (Day 1-3)</label>
<br>
<input id="qpf-opt4" type="radio" name="format" value="opt4" onclick="javascript:imgformatqpf('opt4');"><label for="qpf-opt4">48-Hour QPF (Day 4-5/6-7)</label>
<br>
</form><form>
<input id="wwx-for" type="radio" name="format" value="four" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('for');" checked=""><label for="wwx-for">Snowfall (≥ 4”)</label>
<br>
<input id="wwx-egt" type="radio" name="format" value="eight" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('egt');"><label for="wwx-egt">Snowfall (≥ 8”)</label>
<br>
<input id="wwx-twl" type="radio" name="format" value="twelve" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('twl');"><label for="wwx-twl">Snowfall (≥ 12”)</label>
<br>
<input id="wwx-ice" type="radio" name="format" value="ice" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('ice');"><label for="wwx-ice">Freezing Rain (≥ .25”)</label>
<br>
<input id="wwx-com" type="radio" name="format" value="composite" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('com');"><label for="wwx-com">Composite Charts</label>
<br>
<!--
<input id="wwx-lcl" type="radio" name="format" value="lowclu" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('lcl');">Low Tracks (clusters)
<br>
<input id="wwx-lcr" type="radio" name="format" value="lowcir" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('lcr');">Low Tracks (circles)
<br>
-->
</form><form>
<input id="med-fro" type="radio" name="format" value="fronts" onclick="javascript:imgformatmed('fro');" checked=""><label for="med-fro">Fronts</label>
<br>
<input id="med-mxt" type="radio" name="format" value="maxtemp" onclick="javascript:imgformatmed('mxt');"><label for="med-mxt">Max Temp (°F)</label>
<br>
<input id="med-mxta" type="radio" name="format" value="maxtempanom" onclick="javascript:imgformatmed('mxta');"><label for="med-mxta">Max Temp Anomaly (°F)</label>
<br>
<input id="med-mnt" type="radio" name="format" value="mintemp" onclick="javascript:imgformatmed('mnt');"><label for="med-mnt">Min Temp (°F)</label>
<br>
<input id="med-mnta" type="radio" name="format" value="mintempanom" onclick="javascript:imgformatmed('mnta');"><label for="med-mnta">Min Temp Anomaly (°F)</label>
<br>
<input id="med-pops" type="radio" name="format" value="pops" onclick="javascript:imgformatmed('pop');"><label for="med-pop">24-hr Pop(%)</label>
<br>
<input id="med-ht" type="radio" name="format" value="heights" onclick="javascript:imgformatmed('ht');"><label for="med-ht">500mb Heights</label>
<br>
</form>Text Content
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
NCEP: AWC · CPC · EMC · NCO · NHC · OPC · SPC · SWPC · WPC
* Home
* Forecasts & Analyses ▼
* Daily Weather Map
* Day ½–2½
* Day 3–7 CONUS
* Day 3–7 Hazards
* Day 4–8 Alaska
* Excessive Rainfall
* Flood Outlook
* GIS Products
* Heat Index
* Mesoscale Precip Discussion
* National Forecast Charts
* National High & Low
* PQPF
* QPF
* Storm Summaries
* Surface Analysis
* Tropical Products
* Winter Weather
* WPC Discussions
* Archives ▼
* Daily Weather Maps
* Day 3-7
* Excessive Rainfall Outlooks
* Excessive Rainfall Outlook Climatology
* Mesoscale Precip Discussions
* National Forecast Charts
* National High & Low
* QPF
* Storm Summaries
* Surface Analysis
* Tropical Advisories
* Winter Weather
* WPC Archive Page
* Verification ▼
* Day 3–7
* Event Reviews
* Model Diagnostics
* QPF
* Winter Weather
* International ▼
* Desks
* GDI
* Desk Forecasting Tools
* Puerto Rico QPF
* Development ▼
* HydroMet Testbed
* Training
* Publications
* About ▼
* About the WPC
* FAQ
* History
* Mission&Vision
* Product Description
* Staff
* Student Opportunities
* Search
Search For
NWS All NOAA
Hazard Nov 19Nov 20Nov 21 Excessive Rainfall SlightModerateHigh Heavy Snow (≥
4”)HighHighHigh Ice (≥ 0.25”)No AreaNo AreaNo Area
WPC's Medium Range Hazards Forecast
Winter Storm Severity Index
Experimental HeatRisk
* Overview
* Surface Analysis
* Fronts
* QPF
* Excessive Rain
* Winter Wx
* Day 3–7
* Forecast Tools
National Forecast Chart
Valid Tue Nov 19, 2024
Valid Wed Nov 20, 2024
Valid Thu Nov 21, 2024
* Day 1
* Day 2
* Day 3
Image Format:
English (PDF) (PDF) (PDF)
Español (PDF) (PDF) (PDF)
Interactive Map
» Interactive National Forecast Chart
+ Additional Links
* » Description of the National Forecast Chart
* » Product Archives
* » Download hazards in KML or shapefile format or GeoJSON format
WPC Top Stories:
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1158 is currently in effect
Day 2 Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect
Latest Key Messages for Nov. 19-22 Atmospheric River
Explore WPC's experimental Probabilistic Precipitation Portal
North American Surface Analysis Legacy Page:
Analyzed at 12Z Mon Nov 18, 2024
Analyzed at 15Z Mon Nov 18, 2024
Analyzed at 18Z Mon Nov 18, 2024
Analyzed at 21Z Mon Nov 18, 2024
Analyzed at 00Z Tue Nov 19, 2024
Analyzed at 03Z Tue Nov 19, 2024
Analyzed at 06Z Tue Nov 19, 2024
Analyzed at 09Z Tue Nov 19, 2024
Analyzed at 12Z Tue Nov 19, 2024
* -24 hr
* -21 hr
* -18 hr
* -15 hr
* -12 hr
* -9 hr
* -6 hr
* -3 hr
* latest
Image Format:
Standard
Satellite Composite
Radar Composite
Black and White
Fronts Only
Interactive Map
» Interactive Surface Map
» NWS Unified Surface Analysis
+ Additional Links
* » Product Archives
* » NWS Unified Surface Analysis Manual
* » Other Surface Analysis Products
Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressures Legacy Page:
Analyzed 12Z Tue Nov 19, 2024
Valid 18Z Tue Nov 19, 2024
Valid 00Z Wed Nov 20, 2024
Valid 06Z Wed Nov 20, 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 20, 2024
Valid 00Z Thu Nov 21, 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 21, 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 22, 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 23, 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 24, 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 25, 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 26, 2024
* 12ZTue
* 18ZTue
* 00ZWed
* 06ZWed
* 12ZWed
* 00ZThu
* 12ZThu
* 12ZFri
* 12ZSat
* 12ZSun
* 12ZMon
* 12ZTue
+ Short Range Forecast Discussion (Day ½-2½)
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 19 2024 - 12Z Thu Nov 21 2024
...Powerful Pacific low pressure system to produce significant high wind
impacts and heavy mountain snow across the Northwest, while a strong
atmospheric river takes aim at northern California by Wednesday...
...Potent storm system over the northern Plains to produce gusty winds and
locally heavy snow throughout the region before a redeveloping area of low
pressure brings unsettled weather to the Great Lakes, central
Appalachians, and Northeast from midweek onward...
...Heavy rain and flash flooding potential continues throughout portions
of the central and eastern Gulf Coast today...
No shortage of active weather across the Nation this week as two separate
strong low pressure systems produce hazardous conditions in the form of
high winds, heavy rain, and snowfall. Starting with the Pacific Northwest,
a rapidly strengthening and extremely powerful low pressure system
forecast to pass roughly 300 miles west of the Olympic Peninsula tonight
is anticipated to begin impacting the region today. Damaging winds with
gusts up to 70 mph are possible across northern California, as well as
parts of Oregon and Washington, with the highest winds expected along the
coast and high terrain. These winds are likely to produce numerous power
outages and tree damage in the most impacted regions. When combined with
heavy snowfall at the higher elevations, blizzard conditions are in the
forecast throughout the Washington Cascades. As an associated frontal
boundary slides southeastward and stalls near northern California on
Wednesday, a deep and continuous plume of anomalous atmospheric moisture
content will flow into the Redwood Coast of California and northern
mountain ranges of the Golden State. Heavy rain and rising snow levels
will increase the threat of numerous floods and potential mudslides,
exacerbated by the duration of heavy rainfall through the end of the week.
In fact, WPC has issued a High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive Rainfall
across parts of northwest California on Thursday in order to further
highlight this flooding threat. Residents and visitors throughout the
Northwest are urged to have multiple ways to receive warnings, listen to
advice from local officials, and avoid traveling through hazardous weather
conditions if possible.
In the north-central U.S. another potent low pressure system is lifting
northward and producing unsettled weather of its own across the Upper
Midwest and northern Plains today. A tight pressure gradient being
produced by the storm is forecast to create strong winds across much of
Nebraska, eastern Montana, and the Dakotas through Wednesday with maximum
wind gusts up to 65 mph possible. Strong winds may also overlap with
moderate to locally heavy snow throughout North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota as the storm system stalls tonight over south-central Canada.
Probabilities for at least 6 inches of total snowfall are high (>70%)
across northern North Dakota. Meanwhile, scattered showers are forecast to
spread eastward into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and eventually the
Mid-Atlantic ahead of an advancing cold front today. By Wednesday night, a
redeveloping low pressure system rapidly strengthening over the Great
Lakes will help produce another round of precipitation over the Great
Lakes, central Appalachians and Northeast through the end of the week. The
greatest impacts from this precipitation is expected throughout the higher
elevations of West Virginia and western Maryland, where up to a foot of
snowfall is possible through Friday.
Elsewhere, heavy rain and a risk for scattered flash floods remains a
concern across the central and eastern Gulf Coast as a cold front, weak
area of low pressure, and ample atmospheric moisture content spark
numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall
rates through tonight. The greatest risk for flash flooding specifically
exists from far eastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, with
urban and poor drainage regions most susceptible to rapid water rises.
Temperatures will be on a roller coaster ride this week as well above
average temperatures are found in the East before an advancing cold front
knocks readings down below average by Thursday. Meanwhile, cooler
temperatures over much of the West are forecast to return to near normal
as upper ridging builds into place.
Snell
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
+ Medium Range Forecast Discussion (Day 3-7)
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 22 2024 - 12Z Tue Nov 26 2024
***Strong, long-duration atmospheric river will take aim at
northern California/southwestern Oregon through late week***
...General Overview...
A long duration atmospheric river is forecast to affect the West
Coast into later this week as upper and surface lows/frontal
systems direct a strong moisture plume into northern
California and southwestern Oregon, where several inches of rain
are likely to cause river rising and some flooding concerns.
Meanwhile a deep upper low will drift slowly from the Great Lakes
to the Northeast U.S., leading to cooler temperatures and a cold
rain/higher elevation snow for those regions. In between, an upper
ridge is likely to traverse the interior West and central U.S.
before the upper pattern becomes a bit more zonal into early next
week.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The models have come into good agreement with the large upper low
and surface low pressure system across the Eastern U.S. late in the
week, and a general deterministic model compromise works well as a
starting point in the forecast process. The guidance has also
improved with the expected quasi-zonal flow evolution across much
of the central U.S., and are showing more signs of a deepening
trough over the Rockies by early next week, which could herald the
arrival of an arctic airmass over the far northern Plains. The
ensemble means were gradually increased to about half by next
Tuesday amid growing model differences at the mesoscale level,
while still maintaining some of the deterministic GFS and ECMWF
solutions.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Confidence is high for a prolonged atmospheric river extending into
Friday across portions of northwestern California and into
southwestern Oregon. Enhanced moisture flux ahead of a slow moving
cold front will result in enhanced orographic lift and likely
produce some additional 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals by early
Saturday. A Slight Risk area is in place for Day 4 across these
areas, including the coastal ranges/northern Sierra and extending
to the coast. There will likely be some abatement going into
Saturday with the front slowly making its way inland across the
region. Snow levels will initially be high, but should fall going
into the weekend, including much of the Sierra range where heavy
snow is becoming more likely. However, there is a Marginal Risk
area for the lower elevations of the western Sierra where upslope
flow may result in some rainfall totals of 1-2 inches on Day 5.
Impactful weather is also expected for the Northeast U.S. to close
out the work week. This will be the result of a large upper low
positioned over the region, in combination with a potentially
sub-990 mb surface low over New England. Cold air aloft will be
sufficient to support some accumulating early season snow for the
higher terrain near the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, and
especially for the central Appalachians where some totals in excess
of six inches are expected. There will also be some lake effect
rain and snow in the wake of this storm system. The strong surface
low will result in windy conditions and periods of heavy rain for
much of New England through Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will turn noticeably colder across the Eastern U.S. in
the wake of a strong cold front and the upper low moving in
overhead by Thursday, with highs expected to be about 5 to 15
degrees below average to close out the work week. Given widespread
cloud cover, overnight lows will be closer to average with less of
a diurnal range for many areas. A warming trend is forecast across
the Southern Plains going into the weekend as an upper level ridge
builds in and warmer flow from the Gulf of Mexico, with highs
reaching into the 80s for the southern half of Texas. Signs of an
arctic airmass may start to be noticed for parts of Montana and
North Dakota by next Monday, with overnight lows dropping into the
0s and low 10s. Even colder weather may arrive in time for
Thanksgiving for those areas.
Hamrick
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw
+ Hawaii Forecast Discussion (Day 1-7)
Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Valid 00Z Wed Nov 20 2024 - 00Z Wed Nov 27 2024
Surface high pressure situated northeast of the state is expected
to weaken my midweek as a relatively strong cold front settles in
near 30 degrees north. A weaker pressure gradient will become
established across the Islands by the end of the week with the
cold front lurking north of the state. Trade wind flow should
abate compared to the ongoing windy conditions based on the latest
model guidance. By the weekend, the ensemble means are picking up
on a surface low developing near 35 degrees north, with the GEFS
mean slightly north of the EC mean. It currently looks like the
majority of the heavier rainfall from the front and the surface
low should remain well to the north of the Islands.
Hamrick
+ Additional Links
* » More Surface Analysis Products
* » More Short Range Products
* » More Medium Range Products
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z 11/19/2024 - 12Z 11/20/2024
Valid 12Z 11/20/2024 - 12Z 11/21/2024
Valid 12Z 11/21/2024 - 12Z 11/22/2024
Valid 12Z 11/22/2024 - 12Z 11/23/2024
Valid 12Z 11/23/2024 - 12Z 11/24/2024
Valid 12Z 11/24/2024 - 12Z 11/25/2024
Valid 12Z 11/25/2024 - 12Z 11/26/2024
Valid 12Z 11/19/2024 - 12Z 11/21/2024
Valid 12Z 11/19/2024 - 12Z 11/22/2024
Valid 12Z 11/19/2024 - 12Z 11/24/2024
Valid 12Z 11/19/2024 - 12Z 11/26/2024
Valid 12Z 11/19/2024 - 00Z 11/20/2024
Valid 18Z 11/19/2024 - 06Z 11/20/2024
Valid 00Z 11/20/2024 - 12Z 11/20/2024
Valid 06Z 11/20/2024 - 18Z 11/20/2024
Valid 12Z 11/20/2024 - 00Z 11/21/2024
Valid 18Z 11/20/2024 - 06Z 11/21/2024
Valid 00Z 11/21/2024 - 12Z 11/21/2024
Valid 06Z 11/21/2024 - 18Z 11/21/2024
Valid 12Z 11/21/2024 - 00Z 11/22/2024
Valid 18Z 11/21/2024 - 06Z 11/22/2024
Valid 00Z 11/22/2024 - 12Z 11/22/2024
Valid 12Z 11/19/2024 - 18Z 11/19/2024
Valid 18Z 11/19/2024 - 00Z 11/20/2024
Valid 00Z 11/20/2024 - 06Z 11/20/2024
Valid 06Z 11/20/2024 - 12Z 11/20/2024
Valid 12Z 11/20/2024 - 18Z 11/20/2024
Valid 18Z 11/20/2024 - 00Z 11/21/2024
Valid 00Z 11/21/2024 - 06Z 11/21/2024
Valid 06Z 11/21/2024 - 12Z 11/21/2024
Valid 12Z 11/21/2024 - 18Z 11/21/2024
Valid 18Z 11/21/2024 - 00Z 11/22/2024
Valid 00Z 11/22/2024 - 06Z 11/22/2024
Valid 06Z 11/22/2024 - 12Z 11/22/2024
Valid 12Z 11/22/2024 - 12Z 11/24/2024
Valid 12Z 11/24/2024 - 12Z 11/26/2024
* Day 1
* Day 2
* Day 3
* Day 4
* Day 5
* Day 6
* Day 7
* Total: Day 1-2
* Day 1-3
* Day 1-5
* Day 1-7
* 12-00Z
* 18-06Z
* 00-12Z
* 06-18Z
* 12-00Z
* 18-06Z
* 00-12Z
* 06-18Z
* 12-00Z
* 18-06Z
* 00-12Z
* 12-18Z
* 18-00Z
* 00-06Z
* 06-12Z
* 12-18Z
* 18-00Z
* 00-06Z
* 06-12Z
* 12-18Z
* 18-00Z
* 00-06Z
* 06-12Z
* Day 4/5
* Day 6/7
Image Options:
24 Hour/Multi Day QPF
12-Hourly QPF (Day 1-3)
6-Hourly QPF (Day 1-3)
48-Hour QPF (Day 4-5/6-7)
» Probabilistic QPF (Day 1-3)
» Extreme Precipitation
Monitor
» View Probabilistic Precipitation Guidance (Day 1-3)
» Extreme Precipitation Monitor
+ Additional Links
* » Product Verification
* » Product Archive
* » Product Info
* » Additional formats of QPF: GRIB 2 | Shapefiles | KML
* » Other QPF Products
Excessive Rainfall Forecasts Interactive Page:
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 19 2024 - 12Z Wed Nov 20 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 20 2024 - 12Z Thu Nov 21 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 21 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 22 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 22 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 23 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 23 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 24 2024
* Day 1
* Day 2
* Day 3
* Day 4
* Day 5
Interactive Page
+ Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 19 2024 - 12Z Wed Nov 20 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON...
...Central Gulf Coast...
Latest satellite imagery is showing enhancing convection to the
south of southeast LA associated with the anomalous tropical
moisture surge ahead of the cold front moving east across the
Central Gulf Coast. Trends in the latest hi res guidance suggest
this offshore enhancing convection will become the heaviest
frontal/pre-frontal rains as organized convection currently along
the front farther to the north begin to weaken after 1200 UTC. Hi
res guidance is in fairly good agreement that the heaviest rains
with the offshore enhancing convection will remain just to the
south of far southern MS, far southern AL and the western FL
Panhandle, but still affecting far southeast LA. HREF neighborhood
probabilities show that the axis of the highest probabilities for 2
and 3"+ amounts will remain offshore with the northern edge of
these higher probabilities affecting areas from far southeast LA
and along the immediate far southern MS, far southern AL and
western FL Panhandle. Changes to the previous outlook were to trim
the northern extent of the slight risk area by approximately 20 nm
and to trim the western extent of the slight risk by
approximately 40nm to account for the hi res trends. At the
moment, the consensus on timing of convection supports removing the
New Orleans metro area from the slight risk, with the heaviest
rains likely to the east and southeast prior to 1200 UTC Tuesday.
...Coastal Washington, Oregon and far northwest California...
Latest models continue to be in good agreement on the rapid
cyclogenesis event across the northeast Pacific off the Pacific
Northwest coast, signaling the beginning of a multi day Atmospheric
River event for northwest CA into far southwest OR. Anomalous low
level southerly flow expected along and ahead of the associated
cold front Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with 850-700 mb
moisture flux anomalies of 3-4 standard deviations above the mean
impacting the coastal Pac NW, south into far northwest CA coast. A
well defined area of frontal precip likely to push inland across
coastal Pac NW/far northwest CA after 0000 UTC Wednesday. The
strong southerly low level flow will be mostly parallel to the
terrain along the Pac NW coast, limiting hourly rainfall rates to
.10-.25"+. Greater hourly rates likely across far southwest Oregon
into coastal NW CA where a more significant upslope component to
the low level flow is likely. Hi res guidance is fairly similar in
showing hourly rates of .25-.50"+ in the 0600 to 1200 UTC Wednesday
period across far southwest OR into far NW CA. HREF .50"/hr
probabilities subsequently are high across this area, with 1"/hr
probabilities much lower and primarily offshore. No changes made to
the previous slight risk area, which corresponds well to the above
mentioned axis of high .50"+/hr HREF neighborhood probabilities.
Oravec
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 20 2024 - 12Z Thu Nov 21 2024
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...
The multi day atmospheric river event the began late day 1 for far
southwest Oregon into northwest California will continue day 2,
primarily across northwest California. The rapidly deepening low
over the northeast Pacific day 1 will anchor a nearly stationary
upper vortex off the Pac NW coast day 2. Strong persistent deep
layered west southwest flow on the south side of this vortex will
impact northwest California day 2, with IVT values of 500-800
km/m-1 s-2. and 850-700 mb moisture flux anomalies of 2-4+
standard deviations above the mean. There is fairly good model
agreement with heavy precip totals of 3-5" primarily over northwest
California, with isolated totals of 6-8" possible. The previous
moderate risk area was adjusted slightly southward by approximately
10-40 nm to account for model max axis consensus. Hourly rainfall
amounts of .25-.50"+ likely through the day 2 time period across
northwest CA with increasing flooding risks with time as soils
become saturated and streams and river levels rise. The HREF 1 hour
probabilities for .50"+ totals for the first half of day 2 when
the data is available, remain high across northwest CA.
Oravec
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 21 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 221 2024
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...
The deep northeast Pacific Vortex remains nearly stationary day 3
off the Pacific Northwest coast, supporting the continuation of the
multi day Atmospheric River event for northwest CA into far
southwest OR. Anomalous deep layered southwesterly flow will
continue on the south side of this vortex. 850 to 700 mb moisture
flux anomalies will continue to be 2 to 4+ standard deviations
above the mean with IVT values also maintained in the 500 to 800 km/m-1
s-2 range across northwest CA into far southwest OR. There is a
likelihood of very heavy rains again falling day 3 over similar
regions from the day 2 period. Hourly rates of .25-.50"+ likely to
continue at times supporting additional 24 hour rainfall amounts
of 3 to 6 inches and isolated additional 24 hour totals of 6-8"
across northwest CA into southwest OR. Storm total amounts of 12 to
16+ inches possible across portions of northwest California. Given
this day 2-3 heavy rain overlap potential, a small high risk area
was introduced over northwest CA, across the west central portions
of the EKA's CWA. Flood risks will continue to increase day 3 along
with rock and land slides as soils become saturated and streams
and rivers continue to rise and overflow. There will be a
northward shift back into far southwest Oregon day 3 for the heavy
rain potential as the upper flow back and heights rise. The rising
heights will also keep much of the day 3 precip as rain, increasing
overall runoff.
Oravec
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Confidence is high for a prolonged atmospheric river extending into
Friday across portions of northwestern California and into
southwestern Oregon. Enhanced moisture flux ahead of a slow moving
cold front will result in enhanced orographic lift and likely
produce some additional 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals by early
Saturday. A Slight Risk area is in place for Day 4 across these
areas, including the coastal ranges/northern Sierra and extending
to the coast. There will likely be some abatement going into
Saturday with the front slowly making its way inland across the
region. Snow levels will initially be high, but should fall going
into the weekend, including much of the Sierra range where heavy
snow is becoming more likely. However, there is a Marginal Risk
area for the lower elevations of the western Sierra where upslope
flow may result in some rainfall totals of 1-2 inches on Day 5.
Impactful weather is also expected for the Northeast U.S. to close
out the work week. This will be the result of a large upper low
positioned over the region, in combination with a potentially
sub-990 mb surface low over New England. Cold air aloft will be
sufficient to support some accumulating early season snow for the
higher terrain near the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, and
especially for the central Appalachians where some totals in excess
of six inches are expected. There will also be some lake effect
rain and snow in the wake of this storm system. The strong surface
low will result in windy conditions and periods of heavy rain for
much of New England through Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will turn noticeably colder across the Eastern U.S. in
the wake of a strong cold front and the upper low moving in
overhead by Thursday, with highs expected to be about 5 to 15
degrees below average to close out the work week. Given widespread
cloud cover, overnight lows will be closer to average with less of
a diurnal range for many areas. A warming trend is forecast across
the Southern Plains going into the weekend as an upper level ridge
builds in and warmer flow from the Gulf of Mexico, with highs
reaching into the 80s for the southern half of Texas. Signs of an
arctic airmass may start to be noticed for parts of Montana and
North Dakota by next Monday, with overnight lows dropping into the
0s and low 10s. Even colder weather may arrive in time for
Thanksgiving for those areas.
Hamrick
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Confidence is high for a prolonged atmospheric river extending into
Friday across portions of northwestern California and into
southwestern Oregon. Enhanced moisture flux ahead of a slow moving
cold front will result in enhanced orographic lift and likely
produce some additional 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals by early
Saturday. A Slight Risk area is in place for Day 4 across these
areas, including the coastal ranges/northern Sierra and extending
to the coast. There will likely be some abatement going into
Saturday with the front slowly making its way inland across the
region. Snow levels will initially be high, but should fall going
into the weekend, including much of the Sierra range where heavy
snow is becoming more likely. However, there is a Marginal Risk
area for the lower elevations of the western Sierra where upslope
flow may result in some rainfall totals of 1-2 inches on Day 5.
Impactful weather is also expected for the Northeast U.S. to close
out the work week. This will be the result of a large upper low
positioned over the region, in combination with a potentially
sub-990 mb surface low over New England. Cold air aloft will be
sufficient to support some accumulating early season snow for the
higher terrain near the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, and
especially for the central Appalachians where some totals in excess
of six inches are expected. There will also be some lake effect
rain and snow in the wake of this storm system. The strong surface
low will result in windy conditions and periods of heavy rain for
much of New England through Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will turn noticeably colder across the Eastern U.S. in
the wake of a strong cold front and the upper low moving in
overhead by Thursday, with highs expected to be about 5 to 15
degrees below average to close out the work week. Given widespread
cloud cover, overnight lows will be closer to average with less of
a diurnal range for many areas. A warming trend is forecast across
the Southern Plains going into the weekend as an upper level ridge
builds in and warmer flow from the Gulf of Mexico, with highs
reaching into the 80s for the southern half of Texas. Signs of an
arctic airmass may start to be noticed for parts of Montana and
North Dakota by next Monday, with overnight lows dropping into the
0s and low 10s. Even colder weather may arrive in time for
Thanksgiving for those areas.
Hamrick
+ Additional Links
* » Product Info
* » Understanding WPC Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories
* » Excessive Rainfall Outlook Climatology
Winter Weather Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z 11/19/2024 - 12Z 11/20/2024
Valid 12Z 11/20/2024 - 12Z 11/21/2024
Valid 12Z 11/21/2024 - 12Z 11/22/2024
Valid 12Z 11/22/2024 - 12Z 11/23/2024
Valid 12Z 11/23/2024 - 12Z 11/24/2024
Valid 12Z 11/24/2024 - 12Z 11/25/2024
Valid 12Z 11/25/2024 - 12Z 11/26/2024
* Day 1
* Day 2
* Day 3
* Day 4
* Day 5
* Day 6
* Day 7
*
Day 1-3 Image Options:
Snowfall (≥ 4”)
Snowfall (≥ 8”)
Snowfall (≥ 12”)
Freezing Rain (≥ .25”)
Composite Charts
Interactive Map (Day 1-3)
Interactive Map (Day 4-7)
Winter Storm Severity Index
Probabilistic Winter Storm
Severity Index
Experimental Winter
Storm Outlook
» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 1-3)
» Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 4-7)
» Winter Storm Severity Index
» Experimental Probabilistic Precipitation Portal
+ Forecast Discussion (Day 1-3)
Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
443 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 19 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 22 2024
...Pacific and Interior Northwest...
Days 1-3...
***Impressive and long-lasting atmospheric river event to bring
heavy snow to the Northwest***
This morning, a large ridge of high pressure building over Alaska
will help to force the longwave trough that has been parked off the
British Columbia coast for the last 24 hours southward into the
heart of the Northwest Pacific. Rounding the base of the longwave
trough is a potent 500mb vort max that will phase and lead to the
rapid cyclogenesis of a sub 950mb low off the Pacific Northwest
coast by Tuesday afternoon. The NAEFS SAT page is littered with
atmospheric parameters (wind speeds, heights, MSLP, IVT) that are
approaching or reaching maximum (or minimum) climatological
percentiles in the CFSR climatology. Perhaps the most notable
parameters are the IVT (topping 1,000 kg/m/s at its peak off the
northern California coast) and 850-700mb winds that are above the
97.5 climatological percentiles Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. This same moisture plume will spill over the West Coast
mountain ranges and into the Northern Rockies
These two parameters are vital in producing what should be prolific
snowfall rates in the Olympics, Cascades, Siskiyou, Salmon, and
Shasta Mountains Tuesday night. WPC's Snowband Probability Tracker
(SPT) utilizing the HREF shows the potential for 2-3"/hr snowfall
rates as the heaviest precipitation arrives Tuesday evening with
some potential for localized 4"/hr rates. Snow levels will begin
the forecast period quite low; only around 200 ft east of the
Cascades to around 2000ft in northern CA. However, the exceptional
WAA accompanying the AR will raise snow levels steadily D2 and D3,
reaching as high as 4000ft in northern WA and the Northern Rockies,
and to 8000ft across northern CA. Despite this rise in snow
levels, hazardous snowfall impacts are likely at many passes before
p-type changes over to rain in the Olympics and Cascades first
(both via WAA and dry slotting aloft), then over the northern
California ranges Wednesday evening. This coincides with both a
thermodynamic profile that will lead to snowfall being a heavy/wet
consistency that when paired with strong wind gusts will cause
stress to the trees and power lines.
WPC PWPF shows high chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >12 inches
along the spine of the WA/OR Cascades, as well as the Blue,
Sawtooth, and Bitterroots Mountains that stretch as far north as
the Idaho Panhandle. In the Salmon/Siskiyou/Shasta and Olympics,
WPC PWPF shows high chances (>70%) for >30" with the highest
elevations seeing anywhere from 3-5 feet in some cases. The impacts
will be exceptional in northern California where the WSSI shows
Extreme criteria being met in portions of the
Salmon/Siskiyou/Shasta. The Snow Amount and Snow Load components
are the primary drivers in these impacts that are likely to include
extremely dangerous to impossible driving conditions, as well as
extensive closures and both tree damage and power outages. Major
Impacts are highlighted along the spine of the Cascades above
5,000ft and the Olympics above 3,000ft.
...Northern Plains...
Days 1-2...
The much anticipated storm system responsible for today's winter
storm across puritans of the Northern Plains is tracking north
through the Upper Midwest this morning with a comma-head shaped
precipitation shield wrapping around the northern and western
flanks of the storm. As the morning unfolds, temperatures will
continue to fall across North Dakota and allow for lingering areas
of rain to changeover to snow later this morning. The heaviest
period of snow arrives this afternoon and into tonight as the
TROWAL on the backside of the storm pivots through with a
deformation axis capable of generating 1-2"/hr snowfall rates
across north-central North Dakota. On top of the heavy snowfall
rates, whipping wind gusts topping 40 mph in many cases means
significant visibility reductions that will lead to whiteout
conditions Tuesday evening.
As a complex 500mb evolution unfolds over Minnesota Tuesday night
and into Wednesday morning, an enormous upper level low gyre will
still have a saturated ribbon of 700-300mb moisture over the
Northern Plains that will spill east over the Red River of the
North and as far south as northeast South Dakota. WPC PWPF does
show low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for snowfall totals >6"
east of the Red River in northwest Minnesota and in northeast South
Dakota. Periods of snow will persist throughout the day on
Wednesday but coverage and intensity will gradually dissipate
throughout the day until the snow finally comes to an end overnight
Wednesday. When all is said and done, portions of north-central
North Dakota are likely looking at 6-12" of snowfall with the
heaviest amounts likely to occur closest to the north-central North
Dakota/Canada border. The latest WSSI shows a fairly large
footprint for Moderate impacts over most of central North Dakota
and northeast South Dakota, which suggests there are likely to be
some disruptions to daily life such as hazardous driving conditions
and potential closures. Minor Impacts are most commonly seen as
far west as eastern Montana and to the east across the Red River of
the North.
...Northern & Central Appalachians...
Day 3...
The aforementioned bowling ball of a 500mb closed low over the
Midwest on Wednesday will aid in the development of a new wave of
low pressure tracking over the northern Great Lakes Wednesday
evening. A strong cold front associated with the storm will push
through the Central Appalachians Wednesday night that will not only
lead to much of thermal profiles in the region being sub-freezing,
but a plume of 850-700mb moisture will reach the Central
Appalachians by Thursday morning. With 300-700mb mean flow
generally out of the west, this is a recipe for the first upslope
snow event of the season for the Central Appalachians. After the
first lobe of dynamical potential vorticity (PVU) swings through
the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday (helping to kick-start the upslope
event), the second PVU lobe will swing through Thursday night. This
will reinforce the ongoing upslope flow into the Central
Appalachians, and with this feature the initial low pressure
system that pushed the strong cold front through Wednesday night,
will introduce another surge in 850-700mb moisture over the region
through Friday morning. WPC PWPF shows high chances (>70%) for
snowfall >4" along the Allegheny Mountains and Laurel Highlands. In
fact, for elevations >3,000ft in the Allegheny Mountains, WPC PWPF
shows some moderate-to-high probabilities (50-70%) for >8" through
early Friday morning with additional snowfall still to come later
in the day on Friday. The latest WSSI-P shows a large swath of
moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for Minor Impacts from the
Smokey's of North Carolina on north along the central Appalachians
and into the Laurel Highlands through Friday morning.
Farther north, similar to the original low pressure development
evolution over the Great Lakes on Wednesday, another area of low
pressure will form on the nose of the 2PVU rotating through the
Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon and deepen over Long Island
Thursday evening. This becomes a highly anomalous closed mid-upper
level low that is placed at the divergent left-exit region of a
strong 250mb jet streak over the Southeast. Geopotential heights
over the Mid-Atlantic (500mb, 700mb, 850mb) are all pegged to be
below the 1st climatological percentile Thursday night. As the
storm deepens, strong frontogenetic forcing on the northwest flank
of the 850mb low will result in a narrow deformation axis that is
currently forecast to set up somewhere from northern PA on east
through Upstate NY, northern NJ, and into southern New England by
Friday morning. This evolution has been present on the EC-AIFS for
over 24 hours. While boundary layer thermals may be questionable
away from the deformation axis, this setup favors snowfall at
elevations above 1,000ft in the Poconos, Catskills, Adirondacks,
and Berkshires. It is worth noting that there remains some
different solutions on snowfall totals and which areas see the
heaviest amounts. Regardless, this would be the first accumulating
snowfall of the season for these higher elevated areas. Should
guidance trend toward a more robust deformation zone, some lower
elevated/valley locations in the Northeast could receive measurable
snowfall on Friday. At the moment, the WSSI-P shows moderate
chances (40-60%) for Minor Impacts (generally hazardous driving
conditions) in the Catskills, northern Poconos, and the Adirondacks
through Friday morning.
The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than 10
percent.
Mullinax
...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current
Key Messages below...
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png
+ Additional Links
* » Experimental Winter Storm Outlook
* » Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index
* » Product Verification
* » Product Archive
* » Product Info
* » Forecast Surface Low Positions: Uncertainty Circles | Ensemble Clusters
* » Other Winter Weather Products
Medium Range Forecasts Legacy Page:
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 22, 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 23, 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 24, 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 25, 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 26, 2024
* Day 3
* Day 4
* Day 5
* Day 6
* Day 7
Image Options:
Fronts
Max Temp (°F)
Max Temp Anomaly (°F)
Min Temp (°F)
Min Temp Anomaly (°F)
24-hr Pop(%)
500mb Heights
Day 3-7 Hazards
Additional Products
+ Forecast Discussion
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 22 2024 - 12Z Tue Nov 26 2024
***Strong, long-duration atmospheric river will take aim at
northern California/southwestern Oregon through late week***
...General Overview...
A long duration atmospheric river is forecast to affect the West
Coast into later this week as upper and surface lows/frontal
systems direct a strong moisture plume into northern
California and southwestern Oregon, where several inches of rain
are likely to cause river rising and some flooding concerns.
Meanwhile a deep upper low will drift slowly from the Great Lakes
to the Northeast U.S., leading to cooler temperatures and a cold
rain/higher elevation snow for those regions. In between, an upper
ridge is likely to traverse the interior West and central U.S.
before the upper pattern becomes a bit more zonal into early next
week.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The models have come into good agreement with the large upper low
and surface low pressure system across the Eastern U.S. late in the
week, and a general deterministic model compromise works well as a
starting point in the forecast process. The guidance has also
improved with the expected quasi-zonal flow evolution across much
of the central U.S., and are showing more signs of a deepening
trough over the Rockies by early next week, which could herald the
arrival of an arctic airmass over the far northern Plains. The
ensemble means were gradually increased to about half by next
Tuesday amid growing model differences at the mesoscale level,
while still maintaining some of the deterministic GFS and ECMWF
solutions.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Confidence is high for a prolonged atmospheric river extending into
Friday across portions of northwestern California and into
southwestern Oregon. Enhanced moisture flux ahead of a slow moving
cold front will result in enhanced orographic lift and likely
produce some additional 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals by early
Saturday. A Slight Risk area is in place for Day 4 across these
areas, including the coastal ranges/northern Sierra and extending
to the coast. There will likely be some abatement going into
Saturday with the front slowly making its way inland across the
region. Snow levels will initially be high, but should fall going
into the weekend, including much of the Sierra range where heavy
snow is becoming more likely. However, there is a Marginal Risk
area for the lower elevations of the western Sierra where upslope
flow may result in some rainfall totals of 1-2 inches on Day 5.
Impactful weather is also expected for the Northeast U.S. to close
out the work week. This will be the result of a large upper low
positioned over the region, in combination with a potentially
sub-990 mb surface low over New England. Cold air aloft will be
sufficient to support some accumulating early season snow for the
higher terrain near the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, and
especially for the central Appalachians where some totals in excess
of six inches are expected. There will also be some lake effect
rain and snow in the wake of this storm system. The strong surface
low will result in windy conditions and periods of heavy rain for
much of New England through Friday afternoon.
Temperatures will turn noticeably colder across the Eastern U.S. in
the wake of a strong cold front and the upper low moving in
overhead by Thursday, with highs expected to be about 5 to 15
degrees below average to close out the work week. Given widespread
cloud cover, overnight lows will be closer to average with less of
a diurnal range for many areas. A warming trend is forecast across
the Southern Plains going into the weekend as an upper level ridge
builds in and warmer flow from the Gulf of Mexico, with highs
reaching into the 80s for the southern half of Texas. Signs of an
arctic airmass may start to be noticed for parts of Montana and
North Dakota by next Monday, with overnight lows dropping into the
0s and low 10s. Even colder weather may arrive in time for
Thanksgiving for those areas.
Hamrick
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw
+ Additional Links
* » Product Archive
* » Product Info
* » Day 3-7 Surface Composite
* » Other Medium Range Products
Forecaster's Toolbox (Prototype)
Tools Generated at WPC
These tools are NOT operationally supported. Data may not update regularly due
to workstation failure and/or data unavailability.
Intense Rainfall and Flash Flood Reports
Displays flood and flash flood reports as well as intense rainfall observations
for user-selectable time ranges and customizable geographic regions. Includes
ability to download reports and associated metadata in csv format.
GEFS Probabilities
Plots of GEFS probabilistic forecast of precipitation, temperature, and
sea-level pressure exceeding various thresholds.
Local Storm Reports
Custom plots of Local Storm Reports across the Contiguous United States. Reports
include rain, snow, ice, and severe weather, as well as other significant
information from storm spotters.
Extreme Precipitation Monitor
Displays the climatological significance of precipitation forecast by WPC. The
climatological significance is represented by Average Recurrence Intervals
(ARIs) of precipitation estimates from NOAA Atlas-14 and Atlas2.
Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
An interactive situational awareness table that displays anomalies, percentiles,
and return intervals from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF Ensembles (login required
to view ECMWF data).
*Please note that there is currently an issue where only users on a NOAA network
can access this page. We are actively working to resolve this problem.
NDFD Forecast Temperature Records
Interactive display of where temperatures could approach or exceed records
within the contiguous U.S. (based on NDFD temperature forecasts)
NWS NDFD Max/Min Temperatures and Departure from Normal
Displays Days 1-7 NDFD maximum and minimum temperatures, along with their
respective departures from climatology.
Prototype Snowband Probability Forecasts
An interactive tool that depicts areas of heavy snowfall from individual members
of high-resolution short range ensemble forecasts.
Weather in Context Prototype
Displays forecast information and its climatological context to quickly alert a
forecaster when a record or neear-record breaking event is possible. This tool
is available for both CONUS and Alaska.
1/3/6/24-hr Changes
Change in weather parameters (temperature, dewpoint, surface pressure, etc) over
the last 1/3/6/24 hours. Data is provided from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis
(RTMA) or the Rapid Refresh (RAP).
Experimental HeatRisk
The experimental National Weather Service (NWS) HeatRisk is a
color-numeric-based index that provides a forecast of the potential level of
risk for heat-related impacts to occur over a 24-hour period, with forecasts
available out through 7 days.
Other Favorite Forecast Tools
CIPS Guidance
Analog guidance that uses an objective approach to find historical events that
are similar to the upcoming forecast.
National Blend of Models
Nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based
on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and
post-processed model guidance.
Atmospheric River Portal
A portal for atmospheric river forecasts and diagnostics from the Center for
Western Weather and Water Extremes.
GEFS Plumes
An interactive display of time series plots from GEFS ensemble members at a
point.
SPC Forecast Tools
A variety of useful tools generated at The Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
ECMWF Forecast Charts
Output from the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), including medium
range deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning model forecasts.
AUTUMN PREPAREDNESS
TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN
SOCIAL MEDIA
Quick Links and Additional Resources
NWS Regional and Forecast Offices
Eastern Region
Southern Region
Central Region
Western Region
Alaska Region
Pacific Region
NWS Local Offices
River Forecast Centers
Center Weather Service Units
National Water Center
Observations and Forecasts
WPC Product Archives
Radar
GOES-East Satellite
GOES-West Satellite
Satellite and Information Service
National Climatic Data Center
International Weather
World Forecasts
Meteorological Calculators
Weather Awareness
Floods
Winter Weather
Heat
Weather Safety
Storm Ready
Weather Ready Nation
FEMA
NOAA Weather Radio
About WPC
WPC Flyer
Mission & Vision
History
Staff
Student Opportunities at WPC
Contact Us
Social Media
Facebook
Twitter
US Dept of Commerce
NOAA/NWS/NCEP
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities