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NVIDIA RESULTS COULD SPUR RECORD $300 BILLION SWING IN SHARES, OPTIONS SHOW

By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed
August 27, 202410:33 PM GMT+2Updated 10 hours ago
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NEW YORK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Traders in the U.S. equity options market are
expecting Nvidia's (NVDA.O), opens new tab upcoming earnings report to spark a
more than $300 billion swing in the shares of the world's most dominant
artificial intelligence chipmaker.
Options pricing shows that traders anticipate a move of around 9.8% in the
company’s shares on Thursday, a day after it reports earnings, data from
analytics firm ORATS showed. That's larger than the expected move ahead of any
Nvidia report over the last three years and well above the stock's average
post-earnings move of 8.1% over that same period, according to ORATS.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue


Reuters Graphics
Given Nvidia's market capitalization of about $3.11 trillion, a 9.8% swing in
the shares would translate to about $305 billion, likely the largest expected
earnings move for any company in history, analysts said.
Such a move would dwarf the market capitalization of 95% of S&P 500
constituents, including Netflix (NFLX.O), opens new tab and Merck (MRK.N), opens
new tab, according to LSEG data.
The results from Nvidia, whose chips are widely seen as the gold standard in
artificial intelligence, also have big implications for the broader market. The
stock is up some 150% year-to-date, accounting for around a quarter of the S&P
500’s 18% year-to-date gain.
Advertisement · Scroll to continue

"It alone has been a huge contributor to the overall profitability of the S&P
500," said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. "It's the
Atlas holding up the market."
Options pricing suggests traders are more concerned about missing out on a large
upside move from Nvidia than getting hurt by a large drop.

NVIDIA logo is seen near computer motherboard in this illustration taken January
8, 2024. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights,
opens new tab
Traders are assigning a 7% chance the stock rises more than 20% by Friday, while
only a giving a 4% probability to a more than 20% sell-off, according to a
Susquehanna Financial analysis of options data.

"(Ahead of earnings) people typically want to buy hedges, they want to buy
insurance, but in Nvidia's case, a lot of that insurance is FOMO insurance,"
Sosnick said, referring to the popular acronym for "fear of missing out."
"They don't want to miss a rally."
Part of the reason options traders are pricing this large a move for Nvidia has
to do with how volatile the company's shares have been in the past.

Nvidia's average 30-day historical volatility this year - a measure of how much
the stock has gyrated over a rolling 30-day period - is about twice the average
of the same measure for all other companies with market caps higher than $1
trillion, according to a Reuters analysis of Trade Alert data.
"The options are just reflecting how the stock is actually moving," said
Christopher Jacobson, a strategist at Susquehanna Financial Group, which makes
markets in the securities of Nvidia.

"(It's) is just a function of continued uncertainty/optimism with regards to AI
and the ultimate size of the opportunity coupled with NVDA having become such a
widely followed stock among institutional and retail," he said.

Reuters Graphics

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Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Jonathan Oatis

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

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