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GOOD NIGHT, CHICAGO

Dear Reader,

“Don’t shut down on me now, don’t shut down on me.

Don’t wait until I drown to save me from it.

Goodnight Chicago, I killed a man to make you love me.”

 * Good Night Chicago, Rainbow Kitten Surprise

I lived in Chicago for about ten years of my life – off and on. College for
four, a year after college, a year during the 2008 financial crisis, and four
years after my marriage. 

So, I was sad to see the city double down on failed economic and social policies
that have made the place dangerous and unaffordable. I won’t dabble deep into
the crime issue… 

Instead, let me talk about the pension system. Because the reckoning that’s
about to hit Chicago will make the current Paris riots look like a picnic. 

There’s a serious pension crisis made worse by our commercial real estate
problems. 

And it’s all going to have a serious impact on your money – especially if you’re
a taxpayer.

Let me explain.

“Defining” A Crisis

Chicago has a pension crisis. For decades, public-sector workers built up their
standing within a system that paid them. But there was a big snafu that slipped
through pension reform. It’s called “Defined benefits.”

In the case of a worker in Chicago, imagine they work for 20 years for the
city. 

Perhaps they make $100,000 per year. And in their final year, the city’s system
tells them that they’ll pay 80% of their final salary – for the rest of their
lives… and also for the rest of their spouse’s life. But some of these systems
are corrupted by gaming. For example, some pensions will include the overtime
accrued in the final year as part of the last year on the job. So, incentives
matter. If they add another $30,000 in overtime in the final year (which is easy
to do if you understand the game), you’ll now receive 80% of $130,000 –
currently $104,000 a year for the rest of your life. 

Now – that’s the payment side. The question is what happens when more and more
people have these “defined” benefits – and now you need to fund the projects. 

Well – that’s where Chicago’s insane tax and spend platforms align. Take for
example, property taxes – which are completely out of hand in the city. Cook
County, where Chicago sits, has a 2.19% of the assessed value. That’s double the
national rate for property taxes. And if you own your home – and pass it through
for 50 years – you’ve paid 100% of your home’s value to the tax man. Sounds like
a wonderful wealth-building financial scheme. 

Now, let’s check the math on this. Property taxes are double the national rate –
yet they barely put a dent into the pension system. Things are so bad that about
80% of all property taxes in the city go directly to the pension system. 

As more people retire – more money will be needed. They’ll either have to raise
the taxes (detering buying on a city experiencing population decline) or they’ll
need to find more revenue. Good luck with that. 

Chicago’s holding a pension shortfall of $111 billion – equal to the GDP of
Ukraine.

It’s completely unsustainable. 

So, where does the real estate crisis come in?

Well, the pension money is managed in portfolios. This money isn’t directly
transferred into the pockets of the pensioners. It’s invested – and money
managers attempt to generate returns through a variety of stocks, bonds, and
alternative investments. 

Here’s the problem: These pensions own a lot of real estate funds, or they own a
lot of the debt that finances these commercial real estate deals. These pensions
might find out that they have even less money than they initially thought. 

This all has dramatic ramifications for the U.S. financial system. These bills
will come due. And each will have a social and economic cost to everyone
involved in this system.

It’s all a warmup for the real problem in the United States: A social security
system that is beyond broken and will start to crater under the pressure of its
obligations within the next ten years. 

What do you do to protect yourself? The answer is found in gold. Today on Midday
Momentum at 12:30 pm ET, I’ll talk about gold ownership and the specific amount
that I recommend you own. More importantly, we’ll discuss alternative ways to
own gold that might fit your budget. (Also, remember that I’m not much of a gold
bug. I’m just focused on the importance of this diversification from chaos). 

Today’s Momentum Reading

WORLD’S BIGGEST INDICATORS

Broad Market: Yellow
S&P 500: Yellow

Recap: The World’s Biggest Indicator (Momentum) is Yellow… We start the week in
Yellow territory with trending improvement. We’ll look for positive
confirmation, as the behavior today is starting to look like consolidation at
key support levels.

Flashpoints I’m Watching

Flashpoint No. 1: Centralized Digital Currencies

Cato Institute said that a central bank’s efforts to create a centralized
digital currency would undermine Americans’ “core freedoms” ranging from
financial privacy to personal liberty. The think tanks say that a CDBC offers
“the federal government complete visibility into every financial transaction by
establishing a direct link between the government and each citizen’s financial
activity,” Last September, the Biden administration issued a whitepaper that
supported the idea of a digital dollar. This is yet another problem: More
centralized control. 

Flashpoint No. 2: Bankruptcy Nation

The number of U.S. bankruptcies in the United States is picking up. S&P Global
Market Intelligence reports that we experienced the largest pace of bankruptcies
in the first quarter in more than a decade. Blame inflation. Blame consumer and
business spending. Blame politicians. Blame regulations. Just don’t forget to
especially blame the Federal Reserve and its policies that have badly managed
this economy over the last… let’s say, 25 years.



Investors looking to take advantage need to watch Midday Momentum this week, as
I’ll discuss the Zombie stocks with the highest probability of bankruptcy this
year. The list of stocks includes Carvana (CVNA), RealReal (REAL), and the rest
of the unprofitable junk that trades at nosebleed multiples and wastes a lot of
money on television commercials.

Flashpoint No. 3: Attacking the Zombies

The number of companies that aren’t profitable and can’t afford to keep their
interest payments at bay continues to rise. Zombie stocks have dramatically
increased over the last two decades. However, we’ve seen a collapse of these
bubble stocks due to the era of cheap credit and excess speculation in the last
25 years. 

Today, 41.6% of unprofitable companies comprise the Russell 2000. 



As the Federal Reserve struggles to tame inflation, we could see a surge in
bankruptcies or a rotation out of these stocks. Over at Hyper Momentum Trader,
we specifically target the worst-of-the-worst names. If you want to learn more
about how to identify the unprofitable companies with the highest probability of
bankruptcy, check out Midday Momentum at 12:30pm.

Hot Long Shot

None. Momentum is Yellow. Let’s discuss what that means at noon and what you
should be doing in the coming days. (join me in Flashpoint Trader, where we’ll
drill deep into the top energy merger and acquisition targets)

What You Missed

The Wall Street Journal recently issued an SOS for America’s electric grid. (But
this company could be the solution.)



The government is currently fast-tracking a solution.

And this one American company is actively working to singlehandedly do it all…

Matter of fact, one of these “robots” could be working beneath you right now.

See, the founders of this company aren’t in the business of wasting time.

And neither are savvy investors.

These shares are currently going for a mere $4 and some change.

(But fair warning – this deal is only for investors who act before April 20.)

Understand Uncle Sam is spending BILLIONS to get companies like this one to
market faster.

So your timing has never been more critical here.

Wait any longer, and you’ll be up against institutional investors who are some
of the biggest buyers in the game.

Act now – and you can claim your piece of this American goldmine.

For any further questions, I’ve attached a full report here.

Stay Liquid,

Garrett

Topics: BSM, COP, CRGY, DINO, DVN, OXY, RWM, SH, TSLQ



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TRENDING

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Published
April 10 2023
by Garrett Baldwin
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