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https://gulfbusiness.com/global-trade-sees-growth-in-q1-2024-shares-unctad/
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Global trade sees growth in Q1 2024, shares UNCTAD

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GLOBAL TRADE SEES GROWTH IN Q1 2024, SHARES UNCTAD



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GLOBAL TRADE SEES GROWTH IN Q1 2024, SHARES UNCTAD

Trade in developing countries and South-South trade increased by about 2 per
cent in both imports and exports during the first quarter

by Gulf Business
July 4, 2024

Image: Getty Images

Global trade trends turned positive in the first quarter of 2024, with the value
of trade in goods increasing by approximately 1 per cent quarter-over-quarter
and services by about 1.5 per cent, according to the latest Global Trade Update
released by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) on July 2.



The trade growth was primarily driven by significant increases in exports from
China (9 per cent), India (7 per cent), and the US (3 per cent).



Conversely, Europe’s exports showed no growth, and Africa’s exports decreased by
5 per cent.

UNCTAD‘s report anticipates that this increase will add approximately $250bn to
trade in goods and $100bn to services trade in H1 2024 compared to H2 2023.

The short-term trade outlook remains cautiously optimistic as global GDP growth
forecasts are steady at around 3 per cent for 2024.

The report suggests that if these positive trends persist, global trade in 2024
could reach almost $32tn, although it is unlikely to surpass the record levels
seen in 2022.

Graph: UNCTAD


SOUTH-SOUTH TRADE RISES


Trade in developing countries and South-South trade increased by about 2 per
cent in both imports and exports during Q1.

In contrast, developed countries saw flat imports and a modest 1 per cent rise
in exports.

While South-South trade rose by 2 per cent, its value remains significantly
below 2022 levels, with its four-quarter moving average still negative at -5 per
cent.


CLEAN ENERGY, AI DO WELL, REVEALS UNCTAD REPORT


The report highlights significant trade growth in the green energy and
artificial intelligence sectors.

The trade value of high-performance servers rose by 25 per cent compared to the
first quarter of 2023, while other computers and storage units saw an 8 per cent
increase.

The trade value of electric vehicles also grew by about 25 per cent between 2022
and 2023.


GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGES, POLICIES HAVE AN IMPACT


Despite these positive trends, the outlook for 2024 is tempered by potential
geopolitical issues and industrial policy impacts.

The report notes that geopolitical tensions, rising shipping costs, and emerging
industrial policies could reshape global trade patterns.

Since late 2022, there has been an uptick in “friend-shoring,” favouring
countries with similar geopolitical stances.

Although this trend has begun to soften, the report warns that an increasing
focus on domestic industries and trade restrictions could hinder international
trade growth.

Tags
Global trade stats highlights q1 2024 UNCTAD

Neesha Salian July 4, 2024
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gulfbusiness.com Open in urlscan Pro 2606:4700:20::681a:66c Public Scan

Form analysis 4 forms found in the DOM

POST #

Name: newsletter — POST https://s1244214268.t.eloqua.com/e/f2

Name: newsletter — POST https://s1244214268.t.eloqua.com/e/f2

GET https://gulfbusiness.com/

Text Content

gulfbusiness.com Open in urlscan Pro
2606:4700:20::681a:66c Public Scan

Form analysis
4 forms found in the DOM