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PALM BEACH DAILY


BITCOIN MAY BE FOLLOWING THE MARKET, BUT IT WON’T LAST

Teeka Tiwari  | Feb 16, 2022  | Palm Beach Daily | 6 min readPrint

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you’re a longtime reader, you know one of the reasons I love owning bitcoin
is because it improves your overall portfolio performance.

For most of its existence, bitcoin has been uncorrelated to the markets. In
other words, its movements aren’t tied to the stock market or overall business
cycles.

And research has backed that up…

For example, a 2020 study by Bitwise Asset Management concluded that allocating
1–10% of your portfolio to bitcoin gives better risk-adjusted returns than
holding just stocks and bonds.

That’s why I call bitcoin Wall Street’s “Holy Grail.”

By that, I mean it’s an asset that performs well under diverse market conditions
while lowering volatility across your entire portfolio.

But recently, we’ve seen bitcoin start to move in the same direction as stocks –
particularly high-growth tech stocks.

Since the beginning of the year, the market has treated these two assets as one
and the same…

Just take a look at the chart below. It shows the year-to-date (YTD) price moves
of bitcoin compared to the Nasdaq.



As you can see, bitcoin has sold off in tandem with tech stocks.

This correlation has a lot of people concerned. They’re asking me, “Teeka, is
bitcoin now correlated to stocks?”

My answer: Yes. Right now, bitcoin is highly correlated to the tech-heavy
Nasdaq.

This is bizarre, considering bitcoin:

 * Trades completely outside of the traditional financial market.

 * Isn’t directly correlated to other assets like equities, bonds, or gold.

 * Isn’t directly affected by monetary policy in any way, shape, or form.

So what’s causing this correlation? Is it something we should worry about? And
does it portend a long-term shift in how we should view bitcoin?

These are the big questions I’ll answer today…

Bitcoin Is Moving in Tandem With Stocks – For Now

Historically, bitcoin is an asset that’s very sensitive to specific sets of
data… or a particular set of actors.

These specific influences have changed over time. But whatever the data or
actors say can have an outsized impact on its price.

For years, the No. 1 driver of bitcoin’s price was the People’s Bank of China
(PBOC).

If the PBOC said anything negative about bitcoin, the price would crash.

For instance, when the PBOC banned crypto mining in China, the price of bitcoin
dropped as much as 9% in 24 hours.

And we saw similar dips when the PBOC outlawed initial coin offerings, banned
crypto exchanges, and curbed mining power in the country.

Today, that fixation has shifted to the U.S. Federal Reserve. And its policies
are now having an outsized effect on the price of bitcoin.

As you now know, the Fed is threatening to hike interest rates to tame runaway
inflation. Generally, when the Fed raises rates, growth stocks take a hit.

Investors will accept higher market valuations on tech stocks if they expect
interest rates to stay very low.

It all has to do with the “discounted cash flow” (DCF) model… It’s a formula
used to model future prices.

I won’t go into the weeds of DCF modeling.

Suffice it to say, as the risk-free rate goes higher (i.e., the yield on the
10-year Treasury)… the model revalues future cash flows lower.

So higher rates mean analysts must reprice their discounted cash flow models.
And that results in their models pointing to lower prices for tech stocks. So
they sell.

Big institutions like hedge funds, pension funds, and insurance companies rely
heavily on the DCF model.

Well, guess what?

Some of the biggest new crypto buyers have been hedge funds, pension funds, and
insurance companies.

These new players have no frame of reference to gauge bitcoin’s price. And they
do the easy thing and lump bitcoin in with the rest of their tech investments.

In their minds, they consider bitcoin an asset like PayPal, Meta, and Square.
Since the start of the year, those companies are down 40%, 35%, and 30%,
respectively.

Does this mean bitcoin is now correlated to tech growth stocks?

Right now, yes. These sellers are treating them as the same asset.

Will they be right in the long term?

No. They will be proven horribly wrong. The decision to sell bitcoin will haunt
them for the rest of their careers.

When the Narratives Fade, Bitcoin Soars

Given my experience with bitcoin’s narratives… I don’t believe the Fed’s action
will continue to drive its price action.

Just look at the PBOC today. Its proclamations are much less influential on
bitcoin’s price than they were three years ago.

I anticipate the same will be true with Wall Street’s reaction to Fed policy.

Here’s why…

Despite the recent sell-off, bitcoin miners still hold 88% of their bitcoin. (I
call this phenomenon the “Super Halving.”)

The miners aren’t selling their bitcoin… even with the Fed threatening rate
hikes.

And they’ll continue to hoard nearly all newly mined bitcoin… pushing its price
to $500,000 in the coming years.

So my thesis is proving correct.

The miners are smart. They’ve seen a variation of this movie before. And they’re
not buying into this “bitcoin is just like a tech stock” narrative.

Remember, we’ve been in bitcoin since 2016. Institutions arrived just a little
over a year ago.

They’re still figuring out stuff we figured out five years ago. So I expect lots
of volatility as they catch up to what we already know.

Don’t be scared by that volatility. That’s just the nature of this asset.

It’s inherently volatile. And thank goodness it is… That’s the price we pay for
life-changing gains.

So, if you’re a long-term holder like me, this short-term correlation to tech
stocks isn’t a big deal.

As the cycle of institutional bitcoin adoption gains traction… I believe the
market will get smarter. And Fed policy will have less of an impact on bitcoin’s
price.

Of course, it matters now… Just like it mattered when the PBOC banned crypto
mining. But eventually, that narrative faded.

And so will the narrative surrounding the Fed and bitcoin.

The “bizarre” correlation between bitcoin and tech stocks is just temporary. Use
the sell-off to buy more bitcoin.

Because when the dust settles on this volatility… and the market realizes that
interest rates have no bearing on bitcoin… it’ll be well on its way to new
all-time highs.



Let the Game Come to You!



Teeka Tiwari
Editor, Palm Beach Daily



P.S. The same volatility that’s causing sell-offs in bitcoin is also creating
another phenomenon I call an “Anomaly Window.”

These events are like a window in time when the normal rules around making money
in the market become suspended… and the gains you can see from seemingly
ordinary, boring, blue-chip stocks become life-changing.

My Anomaly Window strategy is so successful it’s been right 362 times in a row…
and past trades have been enough to recapture 21 years of S&P 500 returns in as
little as three months.

For reasons I’ll explain on Wednesday, February 23 at 8 p.m. ET, I expect those
gains to accelerate. That’s why I’m hosting a free live event where I’ll share
details on the coming Anomaly Window.

I’ll even give away names and tickers of the stocks you can use to play it – no
strings attached… All you have to do is join me.

Click here to reserve your spot.


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