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JAYS-RELATED TIDBITS FROM JONAH KERI’S FANGRAPHS FAREWELL

BY JARED MACDONALD | AUG 8, 2011





Incredible author and Montreal Expos aficionado Jonah Keri is officially no
longer a part of FanGraphs, and he chatted for almost three hours yesterday
here. There were a fair amount of Jays questions asked, so here’s a rundown of
them in order.

Jays-related topics that were covered include Prince Fielder as a Jay next year,
a Yanks fan being scared of the Blue Jays, should the Jays “go for it” in 2012,
prying Ortiz and/or Papelbon from Boston this offseason, and Travis Snider‘s
future, among others.

J.P. Arencibias expected BABIP is .306. This would raise his average to .252. A
triple slash of .252-.351-.455… any stock to be taken from that? For next year
or ROS?

Jonah Keri: Just wrote a piece on FIP that should be out later today. Like
Expected BABIP and other advanced stats, the idea is that these are better
predictors of future results than simple ERA or AVG. Doesn’t mean we should
extrapolate it out and grant future stardom to a player who scores well by these
metrics. I’d be optimistic about Arencibia, but that’s more because of his raw
power and youth and cheap price tag than what xBABIP might suggest.

Your thoughts on Travis Snider’s future, now that he’s been sent down again?

JK: Talented player, Jays want him to get an extended run of everyday at-bats. I
tend to give them the benefit of the doubt on personnel decisions, given how
many big hits they’ve had so far.

Brett Lawrie – great player, or greatest player?

JK: He’s no Terry Puhl or Doug Frobel.

Ricky Romero has been great for the last couple of months but when you look at
his advanced stats, they seem very similar to last year. Does this necessarily
mean that he is going to regress, or is it possible he’s figured something out
that will help him maintain this performance?

JK: I do think it’s possible to “outperform” one’s advanced stats, and that
pitchers learn things as they gain experience. Ultimately what potentially
messes with Romero’s numbers is the AL East. You just have to look at AL East
pitchers very differently than you would guys in the NL West. Do I think Ian
Kennedy has shown real improvement? For sure. Would he have become a borderline
ace pitching in Yankee Stadium? I kinda doubt it.

Jonah, I think most of us agree on Bautista as MVP, but who’s your MVRS (Most
Valuable Red Sox? Ellsbury, Pedroia, or Gonzo?

JK: Marc Normandin wrote a great piece for SB Nation which showed how using 3
different metrics (FanGraphs WAR, BP WARP and…maybe B-Ref WAR?), we had 3
different MVPs: Bautista, Pedroia and Ellsbury. I get why people like to read,
and write, in-season MVP columns. But the race has gotten significantly closer
than it was when Bautista was on pace to hit eleventy billion homers and Pedroia
was hurt. I’d say it’s still wide open, for both league MVP and MVRS.

If you had to guess, where does Fielder land next off season?

JK: I think the Jays are real sleepers for his services.

It’s been awesome seeing your work at Fangraphs, Jonah! Good luck at the new
job. My question – should the Jays begin the ‘go for it’ phase in 2012 by
coughing it up for Reyes/Fielder/a nice Starter and a bullpen, or should they
spend another year evaluating what they’ve got (aka. getting a better idea of
the true talent levels of guys such as Lind, Arencibia, Rasmus, Lawrie, and
Morrow)?

JK: think they can go either way and it’s a defensible plan. Alex strikes me as
a guy who lets the market come to him, rather than proclaiming I’M GOING FOR IT
and making decisions which might not be optimal.

Can’t help but remind me of the Rays. They didn’t come into 2008 saying, “We’re
going to win 97 games and roll to the World Series.” But they made a commitment
to get better, they caught a bunch of breaks, and they did it. I’m guessing the
market will dictate how the Jays proceed too.

Do you see Eric Thames as anything more than a 4th OF going forward in his
career?

JK: Too soon to tell. Nothing wrong with giving him a chance to play and seeing
what you’ve got, though.

Everyone keeps linking Fielder and/or Pujols to Toronto, why not Ortiz and the
other high profile Red Sox FA, Papelbon? They make a lot of sense for their team
needs and it will weaken a division rival to boot.

JK: Can’t see Alex paying a ton for a closer. Not sure he would for an aging DH
either. Possible they could go elsewhere, but wouldn’t surprise me if both
re-signed in Boston.

Yunel Escobar or Asdrubal Cabrera (non-fantasy)?

JK: Cabrera.

I think that you’re underestimating the potential rise to power of Toronto. AA
is doing a good job wheeling’ and dealin’, they’re showing their farm a lot of
love, they have a decent, albeit not overpowering, collection of young players,
and their roster is fairly cheap. In addition, their coffers are deep enough to
double their current payroll. As a Yankees fan, they scare me!

JK: Are you seriously arguing that I don’t love what the Jays are doing? I write
about them as if I’m on the payroll!

– JM

Like what you read and want to stay informed on all updates here at Jays
Journal? Follow Mat and I on Twitter (@JaysJournal and @bigja12), “Like” our
Facebook page, or grab our RSS feed!


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