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MITIGATE RISKS


PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS IN EXCEL

From the financial to the scientific, anyone who faces uncertainty in their
quantitative analyses can benefit from @RISK. @RISK integrates directly into
Microsoft Excel and employs Monte Carlo simulation to map out all possible
scenarios and the probability they will occur – taking the guesswork out of big
decisions. With @RISK, you can calculate the chances of making money on your
next venture, staying within budget, and more to plan strategies with
confidence. Buy now or request a free trial to start uncovering new
opportunities.
REQUEST A DEMOBUY @RISK

SEE ALL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

H5 SUBHEADING MIGHT BE A LOT OF TEXT HERE SO LET'S MAKE SURE IT'LL LOOK GOOD IN
THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES. GREAT, THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I WANTED. GOOD JOB.


HOW @RISK WORKS

@RISK (pronounced “at risk”) software is an add-in tool for Microsoft Excel that
helps you make better decisions through risk modeling and analysis. It does this
using a technique known as Monte Carlo simulation. @RISK’s Monte Carlo analysis
computes and tracks many different possible future scenarios in your risk model,
showing you the probability of each occurring. In this way, @RISK shows you
virtually all possible outcomes for any situation. This probabilistic approach
makes @RISK a powerful tool that you can use to judge which risks to take and
which ones to avoid — critical insight in today’s uncertain world.

Works with Microsoft Excel
Avoid Pitfalls and Uncover Opportunities with Risk Analysis
Plan Better Strategies
Model Risk Factors and Protect Yourself with Contingency Planning
Communicate Risk To Others
REQUEST A DEMOBUY @RISK


ENDLESS APPLICATIONS

As the pace of change in business continues to increase, organizations are
challenged to increase margins and explore new opportunities for growth, all
while reducing risk. @RISK is designed to meet these challenges.

Investment Planning & Portfolio Optimization. Simulate multiple portfolio assets
(such as stocks, bonds, real estate, or projects) to maximize return while
minimizing risk. Calculate Value-at-Risk, or the probability of different losses
on a portfolio.
Cost Estimation. Get an accurate probabilistic estimate of materials and labor
costs throughout the entire project. Understand the likelihood of going over
budget under a variety of scenarios.
Engineering Reliability. Using Six Sigma calculations, gain insight into
confidence levels around the risk of equipment failure or safety violations.
Identify areas of weakness to ensure quality results and prevent failures.
Capital Reserves. Probabilistically forecast future claims or losses in order to
determine optimal reserve levels. Perform stress testing on high-impact,
low-probability events.
Oil, Gas, & Mineral Reserves. Assess the likelihood of prospective sites
containing oil, natural gas, metals, or other minerals. Probabilistically
estimate reserves and production decline in order to make wise drilling
decisions.
REQUEST A DEMOBUY @RISK



GET INSIGHTS FOR BETTER DECISIONS

While @RISK provides sophisticated analytics, don’t be intimidated. All
techniques @RISK uses are intuitive applications that integrate seamlessly with
your existing Excel spreadsheets and provide actionable results with
point-and-click ease.

Monte Carlo Simulation. By sampling different possible inputs, @RISK calculates
thousands of possible future outcomes and the chances they will occur. This
helps you avoid likely hazards — and uncover hidden opportunities.
100% Excel Integration. @RISK integrates seamlessly with Excel’s function set
and ribbon, letting you work in a familiar environment with results you can
trust.
Sensitivity Analysis. @RISK identifies and ranks the most important factors
driving your risks so you can plan strategies — and resources — accordingly.

Graphs and Reports. @RISK offers a wide variety of customizable, exportable
graphing and reporting options that let you communicate risk to all
stakeholders.

Extensive Modeling Features. With a broad library of probability distributions,
data fitting tools, and correlation modeling, @RISK lets you represent any
scenario in any industry with the highest level of accuracy.
REQUEST A DEMOBUY @RISK


CUSTOMER SUCCESS STORIES WITH @RISK

Learn how @RISK has helped decision makers to improve risk and decision analysis
efforts.

 * "We’ve trained well over a thousand people throughout the company on @RISK,
   and rely on it for our entire range of investment decisions."
   
   Robert Hunt
   
   Associate Director for Investment Analysis, Procter & Gamble
   
   READ THE CASE STUDY
 * "@RISK helps Petrobras reduce the calculation time for projections that used
   to take thousands of hours to a single day. If you multiply the saved hours
   by staff pay rates, you can get a pretty good picture of some huge cost
   savings."
   
   Rafael Hartke
   
   Financial Planning, Petrobras
   
   READ THE CASE STUDY
 * "The combination of our data and @RISK's technology has given us the
   confidence to predict exactly what risks we face, as a result of which we do
   not need to pay so much for our insurance."
   
   Ulrik Mester
   
   Risk Management Consultant at Post Danmark
   
   READ THE CASE STUDY
 * "@RISK tells us the probability of making our contractual dates and
   highlights any areas of risk that we may not have identified. We want to know
   what it’s going to take to hit our milestones on time – for example, launch
   is extremely important."
   
   Michael Watson
   
   Integrated Program Planning - NASA Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, Lockheed
   Martin
   
   READ THE CASE STUDY
 * "@RISK gives us the power to perform Monte Carlo methods in a single cell in
   Excel. This saves us time and simplifies the spreadsheets we work in."
   
   Liran Blasbalg
   
   Actuarial Analyst, Deloitte
   
   READ THE CASE STUDY
 * "We love @RISK because it incorporates distribution fitting and gives us the
   flexibility to evaluate alternative distributions on screen."
   
   Art Misyan
   
   Merck
   
   READ THE CASE STUDY

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INDUSTRIES USING @RISK


ENERGY & UTILITIES




INSURANCE & REINSURANCE




FINANCE & BANKING




MANUFACTURING & CONSUMER GOODS




CONSTRUCTION & ENGINEERING




AEROSPACE & DEFENCE


ENTERPRISE LICENSING
BETTER RESEARCH, INSIGHTS, AND OUTCOMES FOR ALL


Whether your organization’s focus is qualitative, quantitative, or mixed methods
data analysis, we can help your whole team work better together — collaborating
to aggregate, organize, analyze, and present your findings. Lumivero’s
enterprise licensing options offer volume pricing for teams and organizations
needing nine (9) or more licenses.

Enterprise licenses allow the flexibility to install Lumivero software and
solutions on multiple computers (up to the maximum number of licenses that your
site has purchased) with a centralized management solution.


LUMIVERO’S TEAM-BASED SOLUTIONS ALLOW YOU TO:


Stay up-to-date with free upgrades to the latest releases
Reduce IT costs with one platform deployed across your organization

Reassign licenses to different users as teams evolve

Centralize license and subscription management in one place

Streamline budget allocation, especially for smaller groups and consultancy
firms

Enjoy a Dedicated Customer Success Manager and pro-rated rates for new users

REQUEST A DEMO


@RISK KEY FEATURES

General

Interface

Modeling
Simulation
Simulation Results
Industrial Edition Features
RISKOptimizer
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FeatureBenefitProfessional EditionIndustrial Edition Monte Carlo simulationShows
possible outcomes to avoid pitfalls and identify opportunities 100% Excel
calculations for simulationHighest level of accuracy, and maximum use of
multi-core processors for speed

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FeatureBenefitProfessional EditionIndustrial Edition Seamless Integration into
Microsoft ExcelNever leave your spreadsheet; get up to speed quickly Intuitive
toolbars and right-click menus Easy navigation—multiple ways to perform common
tasks

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FeatureBenefitProfessional EditionIndustrial Edition Distribution Palette and
Insert Function commandEasy and accurate definition of uncertain factors
Distribution Fitting and Distribution ArtistUse data and expert judgment to
define uncertain factors Over 90 built-in distribution functionsRepresent
virtually any uncertain factor for accurate modeling @RISK Function SwapRemove
(and later restore) @RISK functions for sharing models with non-@RISK users
Predefined DistributionsCreate customized distributions with your own parameters
and names Compound functionCombines two distributions into one, to streamline
insurance or other large models Percentile distribution parametersMore flexible
ways to define uncertainty Correlation and Copulas Standard correlation
available, along with copulas, which provide sophisticated methods for
correlating uncertain @RISK variables that allow more control over the
correlation pattern @RISK Data ViewerDisplay any spreadsheet data using all
@RISK charts and graphing options Excel Developer Kit (XDK)Automate and
customize @RISK for Excel through a library of commands and functions that let
you control every aspect of @RISK in your spreadsheet

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Which Distribution Should I Choose in @RISK

@RISK Correlation and Copulas


Gaining Insights into your Inputs
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FeatureBenefitProfessional EditionIndustrial Edition Demo Mode and live
updatingGraphs and reports update during simulation for illustration to others
Extensive settings controlCustomize simulations to specific needs

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FeatureBenefitProfessional EditionIndustrial Edition Fully customizable,
presentation-quality graphsSee the impact of risk and communicate to
stakeholders Reporting in OfficeAll graphs and charts can be exported to Excel,
Word, and PowerPoint in native chart format for easy distribution to others
Customized Excel ReportsCreate exactly the simulation results reports you want
directly in Excel, automatically formatted for optimal viewing. Apply Excel
themes to your graphs. Histograms, area, line, cumulative, summary, box plot,
and overlay graphsVariety of graphing and charting options for easy, accurate
communication Tornado charts and scatter plotsVisually identify critical factors
and trends, overall and for particular scenarios Sensitivity and Scenario
AnalysisIdentify the individual tasks that have the most impact on results, and
the particular scenarios that lead to certain results Six Sigma functionsReport
Six Sigma statistics for quality analysis Stress AnalysisLets you control the
range that is sampled from a distribution function, enabling you to see how
different scenarios affect your bottom line without changing your model Advanced
Sensitivity AnalysisLets you see how changes in any input—distributions or
regular values—affect simulation results @RISK Goal SeekUses multiple
simulations to find an input value that achieves a target simulation result you
specify

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@RISK Tornado Graphs and Sensitivity Analysis


Gaining Insights into your Models
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FeatureBenefitProfessional EditionIndustrial Edition Simulation of Time-series
forecastsUnderstand the risks in values that change over time Correlation of
Time SeriesIt is possible to correlate two or more time-series functions so that
during each iteration the array of values returned by the individual time series
are subject to the specified correlation coefficient. Multi-core processor and
multiple CPU supportSpeed up simulations. “Split up” large simulations to run on
multiple CPUs or cores and reduce simulation run time. RISKOptimizerSolve
problems with more accuracy than ever.

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FeatureBenefitProfessional EditionIndustrial Edition Optimization under
uncertaintyCombines Monte Carlo simulation with sophisticated optimization
techniques to find optimal solutions to uncertain problems. Used for budgeting,
allocation, scheduling, and more. Efficient Frontier AnalysisEspecially useful
in financial analysis, Efficient Frontiers determine the optimal return that can
be expected from a portfolio at a given level of risk Ranges for adjustable
cells and constraintsStreamlined model setup and editing Genetic algorithmsFind
the best global solution while avoiding getting caught in local, “hill-climbing”
solutions Six solving methods, including GAs and OptQuestAlways have the best
method for different types of problems RISKOptimizer Watcher and Convergence
MonitoringMonitor progress toward best solutions in real time Overlay of
Optimized vs Original DistributionCompare original output to optimized result to
visually see improvements Original, Best, Last model updatingInstantly see the
effects of three solutions on your entire model

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Rocking Optimization with RISKOptimizer


Decision Making Under Uncertainty
More on RISKOptimizer


JOIN DECISION-MAKERS AROUND THE WORLD WHO RELY ON @RISK



OUR BEST-IN-CLASS SOLUTIONS PORTFOLIO AND PROVEN SUPPORT METHODOLOGY ARE
DELIVERED BY A DEDICATED AND EXPERIENCED TEAM OF EXPERTS WHO WILL SUPPORT YOU
THROUGHOUT THE PARTNERSHIP.

Buy @RiskREQUEST A DEMO
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