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How the electoral college determines who wins the U.S. presidency | CBC News
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World·CBC Explains


HOW THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE DETERMINES WHO WINS THE U.S. PRESIDENCY

Here's a look at how the electoral college process works, how it came to be
engrained in U.S. presidential elections and its influence on the future of
politics in the country.


SLAVE OWNERS PLAYED A PART IN CREATING THE PROCESS TO PREVENT MAJORITY RULE,
EXPERT SAYS

Benjamin Blum · CBC News · Posted: Oct 26, 2020 1:00 AM PDT | Last Updated:
October 22

Want to understand the U.S. electoral college? It’s just like tennis | About
That


20 days ago
Duration 6:14
The U.S. presidential election in November is the only election in the country
that doesn't use the popular vote to determine a winner; instead it uses the
slightly confusing — and often controversial — electoral college. Andrew Chang
explains how the numbers add up and why winning an election can be just like
winning a tennis match.


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The contentious presidential election between Democratic nominee Kamala Harris
and Republican nominee Donald Trump is going to come down to the wire, polls
suggest.

In the end, the race won't come down to who wins the popular votes — but who
secures 270 electoral college votes.

Here is a look at the electoral college and how it works.


WHAT IS THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE?

Not a physical college, the electoral college is a process for electing the U.S.
president. It's different from that of other republics, where citizens vote
directly for the president.

The college has determined the winner of every U.S. presidential election since
George Washington.

There are 538 electors in the electoral college, divided among each state as
well as the District of Columbia. Electors vote based on the results of the
popular vote — the number of votes cast for each candidate by citizens — in
their respective states or districts, with the winner of the popular vote
getting all of the electoral votes for the state in most cases.

The only states that do things differently are Nebraska and Maine, where two
electors vote based on the results of the state's popular vote, and the others
are determined based on the popular results in each congressional district
within the state.


Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump and
Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris take part
in a presidential debate hosted by ABC in Philadelphia, Pa. on Sept. 10. (Brian
Snyder/Reuters)

Electors are allocated based on the number of representatives a state has in the
U.S. House of Representatives, which is determined by population, plus the
number of senators — two per state. 

D.C., while not a state, is allocated three electors. Each presidential
candidate has a slate of electors chosen by the candidate's party in each state.
They are often elected state representatives, party leaders and activists.

 * What do you want to know about the U.S. election? Email us at: Ask@cbc.ca


WHAT ARE SWING STATES?

A swing state is any state that could go to either the Democratic or Republican,
compared to other states that are dependably blue or red year after year.
Candidates fight hard to sway swing states because they come with crucial
electoral votes. 

Pennsylvania is among the biggest of the battleground prizes with 19 electoral
votes. Georgia has 16, Michigan has 15, Arizona has 11 and Wisconsin has 10.

WATCH | How voters in 7 states will determine the U.S. election outcome: 

Why 0.008% of the U.S. population might determine the election | About That


2 months ago
Duration 9:39
Voters in seven swing states will determine the outcome of the U.S. presidential
election in November. Andrew Chang breaks down each of the states in play for
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and their pathways to 270 electoral college
votes.


HOW DOES THE PROCESS INFLUENCE CAMPAIGN STRATEGY?

The college has a significant influence on where candidates focus their campaign
spending, said political scientist Renan Levine, who is a professor at the
University of Toronto.

There are policy implications associated with that, he added.

"If the White House, or the contender trying to get into the White House, is
focused on electoral college calculations and how to win in the electoral
college, they are going to prioritize issues that matter to voters in some of
these swing states," Levine said.

WATCH | Polls suggest race between Harris, Trump neck-and-neck: 

Harris, Trump in 'razor-tight' race, no clear leader among U.S. voters


1 month ago
Duration 8:43
Harry Enten, CNN data analyst and host of the Margins of Error podcast, says
neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump has been able to open a five-point
advantage in electoral college votes. In fact, the U.S. presidential race may
come down to one vote in Nebraska.

As for what constitutes a competitive state, Levine said the balance between
urban and rural areas is a strong determining factor. "Democrats win a lot of
votes in metropolitan, urban and suburban areas. Republicans tend to win votes
in small towns and rural areas," he said.

There are exceptions to the urban-rural split, Levine said, as well as other
competitive states that may not get as much attention due to their relatively
low number of electoral college votes.


CAN A CANDIDATE WIN THE POPULAR VOTE BUT LOSE THE ELECTION?

Yes. No matter the result of the popular vote, the candidate who earns 270 or
more electoral college votes wins.

It happened in 2016, when Trump won a majority of electoral college votes
despite falling short of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the popular
vote by nearly three million. It also happened in 2000, when Democrat Al Gore
defeated Republican George W. Bush in the popular vote by more than 500,000
votes, but Bush secured enough electoral college votes to win the presidency
(more on Gore's Florida challenge later).


HAVE THERE BEEN CALLS TO ABOLISH THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE?

Yes. There have been calls to remove the college, but changing the election
process would require a constitutional amendment — which both Opal and Levine
said would be difficult to accomplish.

Congress tried to repair flaws that were exposed after the 2020 election, when
Trump falsely claimed he won. Prosecutors have said he pressured state officials
to try to overturn the result.

In 2022, Congress passed the Electoral Count Reform Act to clarify that each
state's governor or other official chosen by the state will certify the state's
election results before they are delivered to Congress.


House members attend a reconvened joint session of Congress to certify the
Electoral College votes of the 2020 presidential election in the House chamber
in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021. (Caroline Brehman/Reuters)

The new law also aims to prevent a repeat of the 1876 election deadlock when
three states submitted "duelling slates of electors" — one slate certified by
the state's lawmakers and a competing slate by a state official.

The law also set a mandatory deadline for certifying results, giving states 36
days after the 2024 election to complete recounts and litigation.


DO ELECTORS EVER GO ROGUE?

Generally, no. The electors' meeting is usually a rubber-stamping exercise
confirming votes for the candidate who won electors' respective states.

In 2016, though, seven electors recorded their vote for someone other than the
winner of their states popular vote — an usually high number.

Thirty-three states and the District of Columbia have laws, some of which
include criminal penalties, to try to prevent "faithless" electors from voting
for someone else, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.


Opposition to the electoral college grew after the 2000 and 2016 elections, when
George W. Bush and Donald Trump each won the presidency despite losing the
popular vote. (Mohammad Khursheed/Reuters)

Both Opal and Levine mentioned a way that the electoral college could be
circumvented without abolishing it: the National Popular Vote Interstate
Compact. The proposal requires enough states to join in order to secure the 270
electors needed to win the presidency. Once that happens, those states' electors
would vote for the candidate who wins the national popular vote instead of
voting for the candidate who wins their state.

"Nothing in the Constitution says how the electors are supposed to vote," Opal
said. "If you're an opponent of the electoral college as I am, it's a rather
elegant solution to the problem."

 * Analysis
   Kamala Harris bet big on courting Republicans. Is her bet paying off?

Levine said the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact would be easier to
accomplish than passing a constitutional amendment. "This proposal will preserve
the electoral college, but it will make the electoral college simply a way of
awarding the plurality vote winner," he said.

"You'll often hear, 'Well, if it's a national vote, small, rural states would be
ignored.' But they are ignored in the current system. It's these closely
balanced purple states that get the attention," Levine said.


WHAT IF NO CANDIDATE REACHES 270?

One of the flaws of the electoral college is that the race could end in a
269-269 tie.

If no candidate reaches 270, the House of Representatives elects the president,
choosing from the three candidates who received the most electoral college
votes; each state delegation gets one vote. The Senate would elect the
vice-president through each senator casting one vote for one of the remaining
top two candidates. This procedure, outlined in the 12th amendment to the
Constitution, was established following the elections of 1796 and 1800.

 * Electoral college voters can be punished for going rogue, U.S. Supreme Court
   rules

This situation has only happened once — in 1824, when the House of
Representatives elected John Quincy Adams — since the 12th amendment was
ratified. Prior to that, in 1800, the House elected Thomas Jefferson in a
tie-breaking vote between Jefferson and running mate Aaron Burr.   

Opal said the Constitution doesn't clearly state whether it's the newly elected
Congress that votes, or the Congress that was sitting at the time of the
election. The most probable scenario would see the new congress decide since
they take office before the president, he said.


IS THERE A DEADLINE FOR RESULTS TO BE CONFIRMED?

The electors meet in their respective states, as well as in D.C., to cast their
votes and send results to Congress on Dec. 17. The results are officially
tallied by Congress on Jan. 6 — the riot at the U.S. Capitol in 2021 was an
attempt to stop that process to keep Trump in power.

The candidate who wins this year will be sworn in on Jan. 20.


Rioters at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. (John Minchillo/The Associated
Press)

A candidate may challenge the results of a particular state according to its
own laws and deadlines. Each state also has laws regarding recounts, including
automatic recounts depending on margin of victory or requiring a petition from a
candidate.

If approved, challenges could proceed through the courts all the way to the U.S.
Supreme Court. This was the case in 2000, when Democratic nominee Al Gore
challenged the results in Florida. The Supreme Court's ruling ultimately allowed
Republican candidate George W. Bush to secure the state's electoral votes and
become president.


WHY DOES THE U.S. USE THE COLLEGE SYSTEM?

The electoral college was selected as the process of electing a president during
the Constitutional Convention of 1787 in Philadelphia. The objective was to
preserve the power of the independent states within a national government,
said Jason Opal, chair of the history and classical studies department at
McGill University in Montreal.

But the process also is linked to slavery, he said. Slave owners in southern
states didn't want majority rule — particularly in states where enslaved people
constituted the majority of the population — and a direct vote for president.

"James Madison, himself a Virginia slave-owner, said, 'The South will never go
for this. They will never go for a national elected president. They will only
accept something like an electoral college, which would filter the choice by the
states,'" Opal said. "The electoral college, from its very inception, has put
the states in between the people and the president. And that was for a variety
of reasons.

"In the founding period, it was hard to imagine the American people as a single
political entity. Very few people thought that way. And it's because slave
owners didn't want there to be direct majority rule — and it's because a lot of
Northerners as well didn't want direct majority rule.


ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Benjamin Blum

Video Optimization Producer

Benjamin Blum is a video optimization producer with CBCNews.ca based in Toronto.
He has also worked as a digital news producer and senior writer with CBCNews.ca
covering an array of international and domestic issues. Previously, he was a
member of the CBC Sports digital team with a particular focus on rugby. He holds
a master's of journalism from the University of King's College in Halifax. You
can contact him at benjamin.blum@cbc.ca.

With files from CBC News, The Associated Press and Reuters

CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices|About CBC News
Corrections and clarifications|Submit a news tip|Report error



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