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News Sports Opinion Business Advertise Obituaries eNewspaper Legals ELECTIONS THESE 4 IOWA RACES ARE HEADED FOR RECOUNTS. HOW OFTEN DO ELECTION RESULTS GET REVERSED? Marissa Payne Des Moines Register PlayPause Sound OnSound Off 0:24 0:50 ClosedCaptionOpen ShareEnter Full ScreenExit Full Screen Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces a recount for the second time in three campaign cycles after Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan requested a recount in southeastern Iowa's 1st Congressional District race. It's one of four Iowa races headed to a recount from the 2024 general election. Miller-Meeks earned the nickname "Landslide" for her victory by just six votes in 2020 after surviving a recount against Democrat Rita Hart. But the GOP incumbent is confident with a much larger lead this time of about 800 votes that the results will hold. Miller-Meeks' campaign called the recount a "delaying tactic to thwart the will of the people," suggesting it was mathematically impossible to reverse her current lead. So, how often do recounts actually flip races? Here's what we found: WHAT'S THE LIKELIHOOD A RECOUNT WILL CHANGE THE 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT RACE OUTCOME? When Miller-Meeks survived a recount before in 2020, she had faced off against Hart in what was then 2nd Congressional District, before it was redrawn. It spanned much of the same geographic area as the current 1st District. Miller-Meeks' initial lead of 47 votes narrowed to just six votes out of nearly 400,000 votes cast after a districtwide recount. That was the closest margin of any federal election in the country in 2020. An analysis of statewide recounts from 2000 to 2023 that was recently released by FairVote, a nonpartisan advocacy group that promotes voting reform, found that it's extremely rare for a recount to reverse the outcome of a race. The last statewide recount to flip the results was the 2008 U.S. Senate race in Minnesota. The analysis found only three reversals, or one out of every 2,310 statewide elections. Those all occurred when the initial margin was less than 0.06% of all votes cast for the top two candidates, which is a narrower margin than where the 1st District race stands. "A recount won't meaningfully change the outcome of this race as the congresswoman's lead is mathematically impossible to overcome," the campaign said. "Mariannette was humbled to win the support of the majority of voters and we remain confident Mariannette Miller-Meeks has been re-elected to a third term." HOW CLOSE ARE THE RACES BEING RECOUNTED IN IOWA? Three other races are officially headed to a recount. Each are separated by a few dozen votes. * Senate District 14: Democratic incumbent Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leads Republican challenger Mark Hanson by 24 votes. Hanson announced Friday he will seek a recount. The district covers Waukee, Adel, Van Meter and parts of Clive and West Des Moines in Dallas County. * Senate District 20: Republican challenger Mike Pike leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Nate Boulton by 44 votes. The district includes east Des Moines, Altoona, Pleasant Hill and southwest Ankeny. * House District 98: Democratic incumbent Rep. Monica Kurth leads Republican Nathan Ramker by 45 votes. The district includes Davenport. Candidates have until 5 p.m. Nov. 18 to request a recount. (This story was updated to accurately reflect the most current information.) Politics Editor Mike Trautmann contributed to this story. Marissa Payne covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. Reach her by email at mjpayne@registermedia.com. 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