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HomeScienceVol. 352, No. 6293The social dilemma of autonomous vehicles
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THE SOCIAL DILEMMA OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

Jean-François Bonnefon, Azim Shariff irahwan@mit.edu, and Iyad RahwanAuthors
Info & Affiliations
Science
24 Jun 2016
Vol 352, Issue 6293
pp. 1573-1576
DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf2654

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 * Contents
    * Codes of conduct in autonomous vehicles
    * Abstract
    * Supplementary Material
    * REFERENCES AND NOTES
    * eLetters (5)

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CODES OF CONDUCT IN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

When it becomes possible to program decision-making based on moral principles
into machines, will self-interest or the public good predominate? In a series of
surveys, Bonnefon et al. found that even though participants approve of
autonomous vehicles that might sacrifice passengers to save others, respondents
would prefer not to ride in such vehicles (see the Perspective by Greene).
Respondents would also not approve regulations mandating self-sacrifice, and
such regulations would make them less willing to buy an autonomous vehicle.
Science, this issue p. 1573; see also p. 1514


ABSTRACT

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) should reduce traffic accidents, but they will
sometimes have to choose between two evils, such as running over pedestrians or
sacrificing themselves and their passenger to save the pedestrians. Defining the
algorithms that will help AVs make these moral decisions is a formidable
challenge. We found that participants in six Amazon Mechanical Turk studies
approved of utilitarian AVs (that is, AVs that sacrifice their passengers for
the greater good) and would like others to buy them, but they would themselves
prefer to ride in AVs that protect their passengers at all costs. The study
participants disapprove of enforcing utilitarian regulations for AVs and would
be less willing to buy such an AV. Accordingly, regulating for utilitarian
algorithms may paradoxically increase casualties by postponing the adoption of a
safer technology.



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SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL


SUMMARY

Materials and Methods
Supplementary Text
Fig. S1
Tables S1 to S8
Data Files S1 to S6


RESOURCES

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File (bonnefon.sm.pdf)
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REFERENCES AND NOTES

1
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Oct. 29, 2016

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES:

Daniel Weihs
 * Head, Automonous Systems program
 * Technion, Israel Inst. of Technology

The advent of autonomous cars brings up a different issue- that of the enjoyment
of driving. Most luxury cars sales are based on driving pleasure- which will
vanish when autonomously driven. So the big profit makers of the Automobile
industry will suffer most- but these are the change leaders. It will be
interesting to see how this dilemma works out.

view more
Oct. 20, 2016

BLACK BOX IS NOT SAFE AT ALL.

Yoshiyasu Takefuji
 * Professor
 * Keio University

Before discussing the social dilemma of autonomous vehicles (1) , we must remove
all black boxes from any system for security reason.
The OBD-II specification is made mandatory for all cars sold in the United
States since 1996. The European Union makes EOBD mandatory for all gasoline
(petrol) vehicles sold in the European Union since 2001.
The OBD-II and EOBD specifications both contain black boxes where all car
manufactures cannot full-test the black boxes. Besides, they have no security
provided in the OBD-II and EOBD specifications. In other words, for more than
fifteen years with neglecting security problems, we have been driving naked
cars.
In the age of autonomous cars, we must reconsider such unsecure mandatory
specifications. Why have we been forced to live with black-box testing without
understanding the details of the black-box? We all know that black-box testing
is not suitable for identifying the defects (hardware/software) in the black
box.
However, open source is not automatically more secure than closed source(2). The
difference is with open source code you can verify for yourself (or pay someone
to verify for you) whether the code is secure(2). With closed source programs
you need to take it on faith that a piece of code works properly, open source
allows the code to be tested and verified to work properly(2). Open source also
allows anyone to fix broken code, while closed source can only be fixed by the
vendor(1).
The open source hardware/software movement has been navigating us a good
direction to get rid of all black boxes and to enhance security and incremental
innovations.

References:
1. Jean-François Bonnefon, et al., The social dilemma of autonomous vehicles,
Science 24 Jun 2016:Vol. 352, Issue 6293, pp. 1573-1576
2. http://www.infoworld.com/article/2985242/linux/why-is-open-source-softwa...

view more
Sep. 1, 2016

RE: "SOCIAL DILEMMA" BASED ON HUMAN "SELF-REPORTS"

William Lawless
 * Professor
 * Paine College

The authors pose a "social dilemma" for autonomous vehicles (AVs) with scenarios
they describe as "unlikely" while relying on surveys (static self-reports) to
make predictions about human preferences to these AV decisions. But we have
known for decades that preferences self-reported by humans often mis-align with
human behavior ([4];[9];[6]). For example, reported in Science News [3], 90% of
female partners self-reported compliance with a drug regimen to prevent
transmission from their HIV mates, indicating drug failure. But before rejecting
the drug, blood samples collected at the same time as the self-reports were
compared to discover that compliance by the females was only 30%, giving new
life to the drug. "There was a profound discordance between what they told us …
and what we measured," infectious disease specialist Jeanne Marrazzo said.

As two other examples, Nate Silver, the renowned political forecaster [2],
declared a crises with polling last year after failing to predict the outcome of
five national and international contests. Tetlock and Gardner [8] claimed that
"forecasting ... is a skill that can be cultivated." Their webpage titled "Good
Judgment" displayed the first question for their hand-picked superforecasters:
"Will a majority of voters in Britain's upcoming referendum elect to remain in
the European Union?" Despite giving only a 23% chance that the British would
leave the EU [5], these superforecasters failed to predict Brexit in 2016.

At our AAAI symposium at Stanford in March [7], we constrained self-reported
surveys with dynamic interdependence to tackle these more likely ethical
scenarios: When four AVs approach an intersection with one AV "aware" its human
driver is impaired, should the AVs coordinate with each other to protect their
human occupants? Should we as a society allow a robot pilot of a team to take
control when the robot becomes "aware" of an impending suicide by the airliner's
human copilot? Should a robot take command of a USS submarine prepared for rapid
ascent to prevent the submarine from hitting a Japanese tour boat?

Respectfully,

W.F. Lawless, Augusta, GA 30901

References:

1. Bonnefon, J.F., Shariff, A. & Rahwan, I. (2016), The social dilemma of
autonomous vehicles, Science, 352(6293): 1573-1576.
2. Byers, D. (2015, 5/8), "Nate Silver: Polls are failing us", Politico, from
http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2015/05/nate-silver-polls-are-failin...
3. Cohen, J. (2013), Human Nature Sinks HIV Prevention Trial, Science, 351:
1160, from
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2013/03/human-nature-sinks-hiv-prevention...
4. Kelley, H.H. (1991), Lewin, situations, and interdependence, Journal of
Social Issues 47: 211-233.
5. Kennedy, S. (2016, 6/25), "Superforecasters See 23% Brexit Chance as Economy
Wins Out", Bloomberg, from
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-18/superforecasters-see-2...
6. Lawless, W.F. (2016), "Preventing (another) Lubitz: The thermodynamics of
teams and emotion", in Harald Atmanspacher, Thomas Filk and Emmanuel Pothos
(Eds.), Quantum Interactions. LNCS 9535, Springer International Switzerland, pp.
207-215.
7. Mittu, R., Taylor, G., Sofge, D. & Lawless, W.F. (2016), Organizers: AI and
the mitigation of human error: Anomalies, team metrics and thermodynamics.
AAAI-2016 Symposium at Stanford; see
https://www.aaai.org/Symposia/Spring/sss16symposia.php#ss01.\
8. Tetlock, P.E. & Gardner, D. (2015), Superforecasting: The Art and Science of
Prediction, Crown.
9. Zell, E. & Krizan, Z. (2014), Do People Have Insight Into Their Abilities? A
Metasynthesis? Perspectives on Psychological Science 9(2): 111-125.

view more
Jun. 26, 2016

RE: THE SOCIAL DILEMMA OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

Schoinas

Dear readers, there is a very ethical choice and for you to evaluate. Autonomous
vehicles should have a setup wizard or a control panel where the driver in each
trip can provide related settings of his choice regarding the decision making of
the autonomous vehicle. These data should be saved in some "box", and in case of
an accident responsibility can be taken. This is ethical on driver's side,
ethical also for the companies in relation of autonomous vehicle and client.

As free society, is also ethical, same like todays. Anybody can drive a car with
a numerous of outcomes (even they pass thru a process to obtain a driver's
licence).

As a society for the common good is not ethical, in case driver making the
decision to save his/her self than the lives of pedestrians which are totally
innocent.

This decision is not for companies to take, but for the drivers to decide and
have the responsibility if so, giving them the advantage of thinking in advance
than to act in rush in any difficult moment with limited time to respond.

However a note, that in any case, pedestrians have no responsibility and
actually should be protected while they are just walking. Walking and never come
back home, is a total tragedy. Also the responsibility taken by the driver thru
the saved data "box", cannot bring back the life of an innocent pedestrian.

In the other hand, someone who decide to buy a car either autonomous or not, and
decide that prefer in any possible accident someone else, innocent, to die
instead of the driver, maybe that persons should not be allowed to operate those
vehicles. This is regarding the common good in society.

Regarding the absolute dilemma "the social dilemma of autonomous vehicles":
A person decide with his/her free will to buy a car either manual or autonomous
vehicle. The same person decide to operate/use that vehicle. A pedestrian,
either have or not any related vehicle, at any time, as long as he/she walk and
is not causing an accident, is innocent and is not the person who decide for the
driver of the incoming (to cause accident) vehicle to buy/borrow/rent and
operate that incoming vehicle, but is the driver's free will to do. Either
company, rules, or driver decision making for AV response for driver's
protection over pedestrians, is absolutely not logical. For private vehicles,
which passengers should be aware.

In public transportation vehicles, analogy of possible casualties should be
consider but either in this scenario, is preferable to avoid pedestrians and
land in another direction with the best way to minimize casualties.
Better for public transportation to avoid any possible accident is a modified
way for the safety of public, exclusive ways for transportation services which
can minimize the cost, maybe can reach zero accidents, less pollution, no
traffic, more effective and time is development.

view more
Jun. 24, 2016

RE: THE SOCIAL DILEMMA OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

Vladimir Postnikov
 * Mechanical engineer

The main problem for the autonomous vehicles (AVs) that are created today is not
ethical. It is a mistake. This mistake is that all these AVs are created for the
existed environment with pedestrians and human operating vehicles. And problem
is that you have to change the environment for AVs.
It was clearly demonstrated in the concept "Global Intelligent Transportation
System" (GITS) http://global-its.org that was presented on 17th ITS World
Congress in Busan. https://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=1137431
GITS concept is based on the postulate that human driven vehicles and ships must
not be used in the environment where the automatically driven vehicles and ships
are used and vice versa. It does not mean that the human vehicles or ships do
not need the development of control systems that will provide the existing human
driven transport systems with greater safety and efficiency. It means only that
they cannot be used in the same environment. Proof: Boden Lake crash that I
named "Boden Lake limit". It means that there is a limit of automation for human
operated systems. The collision of two airplanes over the Boden Lake some years
ago showed that the human priority was the final factor of that collision.
The ACs must have their own environment where they have not to have any ethical
choice. Their environment has to exclude the choice to choose between two evils
by excluding pedestrians from their environment.
This article is proving that GITS is the right solution for future AVs
transportation.

view more
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PUBLISHED IN

Science
Volume 352 | Issue 6293
24 June 2016

COPYRIGHT

Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

SUBMISSION HISTORY

Received: 15 January 2016
Accepted: 21 April 2016
Published in print: 24 June 2016

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

J.-F.B. gratefully acknowledges support through the Agence Nationale de la
Recherche–Laboratoires d’Excellence Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse.
This research was supported by internal funds from the University of Oregon to
A.S. I.R. is grateful for financial support from R. Hoffman. Data files have
been uploaded as supplementary materials.


AUTHORS

AFFILIATIONSEXPAND ALL

JEAN-FRANÇOIS BONNEFON

Toulouse School of Economics, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse, Center
for Research in Management, CNRS, University of Toulouse Capitole, Toulouse,
France.
View all articles by this author

AZIM SHARIFF† IRAHWAN@MIT.EDU

Department of Psychology, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403, USA.
View all articles by this author

IYAD RAHWAN*

The Media Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
View all articles by this author

NOTES

*
Present address: Department of Psychology and Social Behavior, 4201 Social and
Behavioral Sciences Gateway, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697,
USA.
†
Corresponding author. Email: irahwan@mit.edu


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Name: frmCitmgr — POST /action/downloadCitation

Text Content

www.science.org Open in urlscan Pro
104.18.34.21 Public Scan

Form analysis
10 forms found in the DOM