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© Lemrich

THE ECB BLOG


UNLOCKING CAPITAL FOR A GREEN FUTURE

Complacency in fighting climate change and preserving biodiversity is
endangering our economic survival, writes President Christine Lagarde. The
longer we wait, the higher the costs will be. COP29 must close the gap between
the commitments made and the investment needed.

Read the President's blog post
In focus

© ADRIAN PETTY
SPEECH 7 November 2024


THE ECB’S BALANCE SHEET REDUCTION


Excess liquidity remains ample in the euro area, says Executive Board member
Isabel Schnabel. Balance sheet reduction has improved market functioning by
reducing collateral scarcity, bolstering market activity and fostering reserve
redistribution.

Read the speech

© Thorsten Jansen
SPEECH 6 November 2024


ON COURSE FOR MONETARY STABILITY


We are determined to bring inflation back to the 2% medium-term target in a
timely manner and will keep policy rates restrictive for as long as necessary,
says Luis de Guindos. He adds that incoming information shows the
disinflationary process is well on track.

Read the speech
PUBLICATION 7 November 2024


MODERATE TIGHTENING IN FINANCING CONDITIONS


Fewer euro area firms reported rising bank interest rates in Q3 of 2024 although
many firms indicated further tightening in other loan conditions. Inflation
expectations continued to decline.

Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises
Press releases
12 November 2024
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem as at 8 November 2024
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NederlandsNL PolskiPL PortuguêsPT RomânăRO SlovenčinaSK SlovenščinaSL SvenskaSV
Annexes
12 November 2024
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
Commentary
English
7 November 2024
PRESS RELEASE
Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises: firms report moderate tightening
of financing conditions
English
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FrançaisFR
Related
7 November 2024
SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA
Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area - Third quarter
of 2024
English
English
5 November 2024
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem as at 1 November 2024
English
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NederlandsNL PolskiPL PortuguêsPT RomânăRO SlovenčinaSK SlovenščinaSL SvenskaSV
Annexes
5 November 2024
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
Commentary
English
Español
31 October 2024
PRESS RELEASE
ECB publishes consolidated banking data for end-June 2024
English
Deutsch
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EspañolES
31 October 2024
MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
Euro area bank interest rate statistics: September 2024
English
Deutsch
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EspañolES FrançaisFR
ALL PRESS RELEASES
Speeches
7 November 2024
Philip R. Lane: Macroeconomics of sovereign debt
Slides by Philip Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the "Public
Debt: Past Lessons, Future Challenges" conference organised by Bank of Greece in
Athens, Greece
English
7 November 2024
Isabel Schnabel: The ECB’s balance sheet reduction: an interim assessment
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the
annual ECB Conference on Money Markets
English
Annexes
7 November 2024
The ECB’s balance sheet reduction: an interim assessment
English
6 November 2024
Luis de Guindos: Economic developments and monetary policy in the euro area
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Distinguished
Speakers Seminar organised by the European Economics and Financial Centre,
University of London
English
6 November 2024
Christine Lagarde: Welcome address at the tenth anniversary of the Single
Supervisory Mechanism
Welcome address by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the tenth
anniversary of the Single Supervisory Mechanism
English
5 November 2024
Isabel Schnabel: The ECB’s monetary policy: towards price stability
Lecture by Ms Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Michael
Chae Seminar on Macroeconomic Policy at Harvard University’s Department of
Economics in Cambridge, MA, USA
English
ALL SPEECHES
Interviews
31 October 2024
Christine Lagarde: Interview with Le Monde
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Eric
Albert, Philippe Escande and Béatrice Madeline on 28 October 2024
English
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FrançaisFR
29 October 2024
Luis de Guindos: Interview with ANSA
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Domenico
Conti
English
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ItalianoIT
8 October 2024
Frank Elderson: Interview with Delo
Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and
Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Miha Jenko
English
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SlovenščinaSL
20 September 2024
Luis de Guindos: Interview with Expresso
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Gonçalo
Almeida on 13 September
English
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PortuguêsPT
4 September 2024
Piero Cipollone: Interview with Le Monde
Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB,
conducted by Eric Albert
English
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FrançaisFR
ALL INTERVIEWS
The ECB Blog
12 November 2024
Christine Lagarde: Mind the gap: what it takes to finance a greener future
Complacency in fighting climate change and preserving biodiversity is
endangering our economic survival. The longer we wait, the higher the costs will
be. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, warns of the
growing gap between the commitments made and the investment needed.

English
1 November 2024
Piero Cipollone: The digital euro: what’s in it for you?
As they juggle various cards, apps and devices, most Europeans find that digital
payments have fallen short of their promise to provide a convenient euro
area-wide solution. The ECB’s Piero Cipollone explains how a digital euro would
blend the simplicity of cash with digital convenience.

English
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DeutschDE EλληνικάEL EspañolES Eesti keelET SuomiFI FrançaisFR HrvatskiHR
ItalianoIT LietuviųLT LatviešuLV NederlandsNL PortuguêsPT SlovenčinaSK
SlovenščinaSL SvenskaSV
24 October 2024
Cross-border deposits: growing trust in the euro area
People have tended to be quite hesitant to trust banks abroad. That seems to be
changing. The ECB Blog shows that cross-border bank deposits of private
households have picked up recently.
 * Matthias Rumpf

English
9 October 2024
Critical inputs from China: how vulnerable are European firms to supply
shortages?
China has been an important and reliable supplier of critical inputs for
European industries for decades. But how vulnerable would our companies be if
that suddenly stopped? The ECB Blog estimates the potential losses in value
added for manufacturers in five countries.
 * Dennis Essers
 * Laura Lebastard
 * Michele Mancini
 * Ludovic Panon
 * Jacopo Timini

English
Details
JEL CodeE50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central
Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade
Organizations
F43 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and
Finance→Economic Growth of Open Economies

3 October 2024
Monetary policy transmission: why consumers’ housing situations matter
Monetary policy decisions have direct financial consequences for many consumers,
especially as they influence mortgage conditions. The ECB Blog looks at how
these effects differ based on consumers’ mortgage situations and why that
matters for the transmission of monetary policy.
 * Lorenzo Baldassarri
 * Dimitris Georgarakos
 * Geoff Kenny
 * Justus Meyer

English
Details
JEL CodeE52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central
Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E49 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Other

ALL BLOG POSTS
Publications
8 November 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2999
Financial returns, sentiment and market volatility. A dynamic assessment.
 * Stefano Borgioli
 * Giampiero M. Gallo
 * Chiara Ongari

English
Details
AbstractIn 1936, John Maynard Keynes proposed that emotions and instincts are
pivotal in decision-making, particularly for investors. Both positive and
negative moods can influence judgments and decisions, extending to economic and
financial choices. Intuitions, emotional states, and biases significantly shape
how people think and act. Measuring mood or sentiment is challenging, but
surveys and data collection methods, such as confidence indices and consensus
forecasts, offer some solutions. Recently, the availability of web data,
including search engine queries and social media activity, has provided
high-frequency sentiment measures. For example, the Italian National Statistical
Institute’s Social Mood on Economy Index (SMEI) uses Twitter data to assess
economic sentiment in Italy. The relationship between SMEI and financial market
activity, specifically the FTSE MIB index and its volatility, is examined using
a trivariate Vector Autoregressive model, taking into account the impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic.JEL CodeC1 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric
and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation
Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions,
Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and
Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
G4 : Financial Economics

8 November 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2998
For whom the bill tolls: redistributive consequences of a monetary-fiscal
stimulus
 * Michał Brzoza-Brzezina
 * Marcin Kolasa
 * Krzysztof Makarski
 * Julia Jabłońska

English
Details
AbstractDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, governments in the euro area sharply
increased spending while the European Central Bank eased financing conditions.
We use this episode to assess how such a concerted monetary-fiscal stimulus
redistributes welfare between various age cohorts. Our assessment involves not
only the income side of household balance sheets (mainly direct effects of
transfers) but also the more obscure financing side that, to a substantial
degree, occurred via indirect effects (with a prominent role of the inflation
tax). Using a quantitative life-cycle model, and assuming that the deficit was
partly unfunded by future taxes, we document that young households benefited
from the stimulus, while middle-aged and older agents mainly paid the bill.
Crucially, most welfare redistribution was due to indirect effects related to
macroeconomic adjustment that resulted from the stimulus. As a consequence, even
though all age cohorts received significant transfers, the welfare of some
actually decreased.JEL CodeE31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices,
Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking,
and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking,
and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
H5 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends,
Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

8 November 2024
LEGAL ACT
Guideline ECB/2025/XX amending Guideline ECB/2017/9 on the exercise of options
and discretions available in Union law
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8 November 2024
LEGAL ACT
Regulation ECB/2025/XX amending Regulation ECB/2016/4 on the exercise of options
and discretions available in union law
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8 November 2024
LEGAL ACT
Recommendation ECB/2025/XX amending Recommendation ECB/2017/10 on common
specifications for the exercise of some options and discretions available in
Union law
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7 November 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2997
Time-varying agglomeration economies and aggregate wage growth
 * Clémence Berson
 * Pierre-Philippe Combes
 * Laurent Gobillon
 * Aurélie Sotura

English
Details
AbstractWe examine how agglomeration economies have influenced labour earnings
in France over forty years. First, we define cities dynamically to account for
their changing footprints. Our findings show that aggregate wage growth is
mainly driven by growth in larger cities, rather than smaller ones or by
population shifts across cities. We estimate individual wages incorporating
time-varying city and individual fixed effects, and analyse how city
characteristics (employment density, area, and market access) and their returns
impact wage evolution. Changes in the values of these characteristics have
minimal effect, but changes in their returns significantly influence wages, with
notable variation across cities. Overall, aggregate wage growth in France
reflects larger returns to larger city size. Our model, that incorporate the
impact of agglomeration economies on city size and population, suggests that
changes in returns do not drive population or area changes sufficiently to
impact aggregate labour earnings, supporting our empirical findings.JEL CodeR23
: Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household
Analysis→Regional Migration, Regional Labor Markets, Population, Neighborhood
Characteristics
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage
Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
J61 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and
Immigrant Workers→Geographic Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers

7 November 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2996
Fiscal policy and inflation: accounting for non-linearities in government debt
 * Cristina Checherita-Westphal
 * Tom Pesso

English
Details
AbstractThis paper investigates the interplay between discretionary fiscal
policy and inflation in the euro area, emphasizing the role of public debt
levels in modulating this relationship. It explores how fiscal expansions or
contractions influence inflationary pressures, particularly under varying debt
conditions. The analysis reveals that fiscal policy’s effect on inflation is
non-linear, with debt levels significantly affecting the inflationary outcome of
fiscal measures. High debt levels tend to amplify the inflation response to
fiscal expansions, a finding that holds under multiple analytical frameworks and
robustness checks. This paper contributes to the empirical literature by
highlighting the critical role of fiscal policy, especially in high-debt
environments, and its implications for inflation dynamics in the euro area.JEL
CodeE31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations,
and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic
Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management,
Sovereign Debt

7 November 2024
SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA
Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area - Third quarter
of 2024
English
English
Annexes
7 November 2024
SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE
Questionnaire
English
5 November 2024
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 25
Mapping the maze: a system-wide analysis of commercial real estate exposures and
risks
 * Pierce Daly
 * Ellen Ryan
 * Oscar Schwartz Blicke

English
Details
AbstractThis article analyses the complex linkages between commercial real
estate (CRE) markets and the financial system. Examining data from a wide range
of sources this article presents the first system-wide mapping of CRE exposures
in the euro area. The exercise identifies several sectors – real estate
companies, real estate investment funds and real estate investment trusts – with
particularly large CRE exposures. Structural vulnerabilities among these key
players increase their exposure to CRE market shocks and the likelihood that
they could amplify these shocks. In the case of real estate investment funds,
highlighting the need to develop a comprehensive macroprudential framework to
address liquidity vulnerabilities. Moreover, the complexity of CRE exposures
that arise from extensive debt and equity linkages between these key owners of
CRE and their financiers adds a further layer of risk, with the potential to
exacerbate uncertainty and feedback loops. Findings underline the importance of
closely monitoring links between CRE and the financial system and continuing
work to close data gaps related to these markets.JEL CodeG21 : Financial
Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions,
Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance,
Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial
Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy
and Regulation
R33 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real
Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Nonagricultural
and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

5 November 2024
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS
A first look at bank loans to real estate funds
 * Marcus Bierich
 * Pierce Daly
 * Aoife Horan
 * Ellen Ryan
 * Manuela Storz

English
Details
AbstractThis special focus examines the size and characteristics of bank lending
to real estate investment funds (REIFs) in the euro area. Overall, bank lending
to REIFs is limited in size, with financial stability risks appearing to be
contained as a result. However, stress in the REIF sector could still expose
banks to losses and could be exacerbated by the riskier nature of this loan
portfolio. Finally, high financial leverage in the REIF sector could also pose
risks, however, further analysis is required to assess possible risks from
pockets of highly leveraged REIFs.JEL CodeG21 : Financial Economics→Financial
Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance
Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial
Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
R33 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real
Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Nonagricultural
and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

31 October 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024
English
English
31 October 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Decoding revisions in policy rate expectations: insights from the Survey of
Monetary Analysts
 * Yıldız Akkaya
 * Boryana Ilieva

Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024
English
Details
AbstractThis box analyses the revisions in policy rate path expectations
observed in the Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) and identifies key drivers of
these revisions. Amid the interest rate hikes of 2022 and 2023, financial
markets and analysts made frequent and sizeable adjustments to their
expectations for ECB policy rate levels. SMA participants’ macroeconomic
expectations, particularly changes regarding headline inflation and GDP growth,
played a significant role in shaping revisions to expectations for deposit
facility rate (DFR) levels, especially during the surge in inflation. At the
same time, financial market expectations, as reflected in forward rates,
accounted for another sizeable share of revisions. Over time, the relative
importance of macroeconomic expectations in driving expectations for the policy
rate path diminished, with financial market expectations playing a dominant role
by 2023.JEL CodeE52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy,
Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial
Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading
Volume, Bond Interest Rates

31 October 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
The impact of special-purpose entities on euro area cross-border financial
linkages
 * Lorenz Emter
 * Fausto Pastoris
 * Carmen Picón Aguilar
 * Martin Schmitz

Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024
English
Details
AbstractThis box presents newly released data on the activities of
special-purpose entities (SPEs) in the external sector of the euro area. It
shows that SPEs make a significant contribution to cross-border financial
linkages. Overall, SPEs account for around a third of euro area foreign direct
investment positions and more than 10% of total euro area cross-border financial
linkages. Their importance varies substantially across countries. Although SPEs
inflate the gross external positions of the euro area, their impact on the net
international investment position is limited. The contribution made by SPEs in
the euro area has declined recently from a high level amid national and global
initiatives affecting the regulatory and taxation environments for multinational
enterprises.JEL CodeC82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection
and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting,
Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International
Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic
Impacts

31 October 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
The link between oil prices and the US dollar: evidence and economic
implications

Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024
English
Details
AbstractIn recent years rising oil prices have often coincided with a
strengthening of the US dollar. A positive correlation means that oil imports
priced in local currencies become more expensive for oil importers such as the
euro area, adding to inflation dynamics. Historically, there has been no
systematic co-movement between oil prices and the US dollar. However, recent
studies suggest that a positive correlation might have become the new normal
since the United States became a significant oil exporter. The empirical models
presented in this box show that the structural change in the US oil market has
not been sufficient to render the correlation between oil prices and the US
dollar systematically positive. Instead, the co-movement observed continues to
be largely the result of specific shocks that steer both variables in the same
direction rather than the reflection of a structural change in the link between
oil prices and the US dollar.JEL CodeC22 : Mathematical and Quantitative
Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic
Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and
Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange

31 October 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
The performance of Eurosystem/ECB staff projections for economic growth since
the COVID-19 pandemic
 * Adrian Page

Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024
English
Details
AbstractFollowing a series of analyses on the accuracy of Eurosystem/ECB staff
projections for inflation in recent years, this box shifts the focus to staff
projections for growth. It shows that since 2022, the growth projections have
been very reliable in the very short term but have tended to be too optimistic
over one-year horizons. Private consumption and, to a lesser extent, investment,
have tended to disappoint, due in part to monetary policy being tighter than
initially assumed and uncertainty about its economic impact. However, once
adjusted for errors in the conditioning assumptions of the projections, the
projection errors are notably smaller, especially over the past year. Overall,
despite the series of large shocks which hit the euro area economy in recent
years, staff growth projection errors have been comparable with pre-pandemic
averages.JEL CodeC53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric
Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and
Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

30 October 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Euro area fiscal position in 2024
 * Cristina Checherita-Westphal
 * Sebastian Hauptmeier
 * Nadine Leiner-Killinger
 * Philip Muggenthaler

Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024
English
Details
AbstractThis box provides an overview of fiscal developments in 2024 – as
reflected in revisions in fiscal positions across rounds of Eurosystem and ECB
staff macroeconomic projections. For the euro area as a whole and in groups of
countries with both high and low debt ratios, the cyclically adjusted fiscal
positions projected for 2024 have gradually weakened since the September 2023
projection round. Overall, fiscal positions remain weaker in the high-debt
country group than in the low-debt group. Considerable risks continue to
surround fiscal positions in the short run and beyond, with mixed signals
regarding the 2024 outcome. For 2025, draft budgetary plans provide for some
consolidation so as, among other reasons, to comply with the requirements of the
revised EU economic governance framework.JEL CodeE62 : Macroeconomics and
Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public
Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management,
Sovereign Debt

30 October 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Geopolitical fragmentation in global and euro area greenfield foreign direct
investment
 * Lukas Boeckelmann
 * Lorenz Emter
 * Isabella Moder
 * Giacomo Pongetti
 * Tajda Spital

Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024
English
Details
AbstractThis box illustrates how aggregate greenfield foreign direct investment
(FDI) flows are showing increasing signs of fragmentation along geopolitical
fault lines. Euro area outward flows are following this trend, with greenfield
investments increasingly tilted towards the United States and away from China.
However, firms have also stepped up investment between geopolitical blocs to
boost local production content in anticipation of protectionist measures or
retaliatory tariffs. Econometric evidence from gravity models shows that the
overall effect of increasing geopolitical divides on FDI is negative, with FDI
flows within geopolitical blocs being almost three times higher than FDI flows
between geopolitical blocs in recent quarters. Moreover, the estimates suggest
that global FDI flows were dampened by 3% following the increases in average
geopolitical distance owing to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since then,
geopolitical divides have become a particularly strong deterrent to greenfield
FDI both into and out of the euro area.JEL CodeF13 : International
Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International
Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements

30 October 2024
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 124
Banks lose – someone gains: Households’ unequal exposure to financial distress
 * Caterina Mendicino
 * Lukas Nord
 * Marcel Peruffo

English
English
Details
AbstractIs the burden of distress in the banking sector shared equally among
households, or is it distributed unevenly? Following the global financial
crisis, the economic consequences of severe disruptions to the banking sector
and the unequal impact of recessions have become a key concern of macroeconomic
policy. This article examines how temporary banking sector losses affect
households differently according to their income levels. The analysis reveals
that low-income households bear most of the burden, while high-income households
tend to be less adversely affected. While a fewhigh-income individuals exposed
to bank dividends may face severe losses, those who are able to quickly adjust
their portfolios may be able to take advantage of low asset prices, earn high
returns going forward, and overall benefit from distress in the financial
sector.JEL CodeD31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and
Their Distributions
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production,
Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository
Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages

29 October 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
What consumers think is the main driver of recent inflation: changes in
perceptions over time
 * Pedro Baptista
 * Colm Bates
 * Omiros Kouvavas
 * Pedro Neves
 * Katia Werkmeister

Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024
English
Details
AbstractConsumer perceptions of the main drivers of inflation can affect their
inflation expectations and, in turn, their economic behaviour. The results of
the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) for March 2024 reveal that most
euro area consumers attribute inflation primarily to input costs, followed by
profits and wages. However, the proportion of consumers identifying wages as the
main driver of inflation has increased since June 2023, with this perception
being most pronounced in countries experiencing significant wage growth. These
evolving perceptions highlight the need to monitor shifts in inflation
narratives and their potential impact on inflation expectations.JEL CodeD11 :
Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics:
Theory
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations,
Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and
Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation

29 October 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
The Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises: monetary policy, economic
and financing conditions and inflation expectations
 * Annalisa Ferrando
 * Sara Lamboglia
 * Judit Rariga
 * Nicola Benatti
 * Ioannis Gkrintzalis

Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024
English
Details
AbstractThe Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) provides
information on the financing needs of euro area firms, their economic
performance, and the availability of external funding. The article illustrates
the role that the SAFE has played over the past 15 years. First, it discusses
the contribution of the survey to assessing the transmission of monetary policy
decisions to firms’ access to finance and their financing conditions. Second,
the article shows how SAFE-based data provide timely evidence of the impact of
economic crises on firms’ performance. Third, the article documents the ability
of SAFE-based indicators to track important shifts in the economic business
cycle. Finally, the article discusses new survey modules that facilitate the
analysis of the pricing and wage-setting behaviour of firms, along with their
inflation expectations.JEL CodeC83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data
Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods,
Sampling Methods
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical
Analysis
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking,
and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy,
Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of
Firms, Goodwill

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INTEREST RATES

Marginal lending facility 3.65 % Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) 3.40 %
Deposit facility 3.25 %

23 October 2024 Past key ECB interest rates


INFLATION RATE

2024JulOct1.52.02.5
2.2%
August '24
1.7%
September '24
2.0%
October '24 (Est.)

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