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WHAT WOULD A SHIFT IN OIL PRICES & FREIGHT TRAFFIC VOLUME MEAN FOR HEAVY VEHICLE
REGISTRATION NUMBERS?


WHAT WOULD A SHIFT IN OIL PRICES & FREIGHT TRAFFIC VOLUME MEAN FOR HEAVY VEHICLE
REGISTRATION NUMBERS?

Published on
October 14, 2022
CATEGORY
What-ifs
Read time
5 mins



Effective uses of scenario analysis can up your chances of improving resilience,
especially during volatile times in the market. Doing so also provides nuance to
your forecasted data, allowing you to improve planning agility, create buffers
in your plans and mitigate the impact of changes in the market.

In this case, our focus is on heavy vehicle registrations in the EU and we’re
examining the potential effects of increasing operational costs by way of
increasing oil prices and freight volume - all of which will invariably impact
the registration volume.
‍The question is where would this land?  

To begin with, the figures we arrived at using the univariate models come in at
22.66K (using the Arima model) and 24.32K with the Prophet model selected as the
most appropriate model based on the data.  

‍



‍

Applying the multivariate models, we anticipate an uptrend with 22.56K heavy
vehicle (above 16T) registrations in September, which represents a 24% YoY
increase compared to September 2021.

October heavy vehicle registrations peak, displaying a 20.2% YoY increase at
23.68K registrations, and taking it a month further, we forecast 22.97K
registrations in November.

The VAR models with Lasso effects used in Indicio provide us with a clear
indication of which variables are meaningful to this forecast. The ones that
prove to have the most significance are: China’s Freight traffic, retail trade
Confidence Indicator regarding the sale of motor vehicles and ICE Brent Crude.

WHAT HAPPENS IF CHINA OPENS UP QUICKER THAN EXPECTED? HOW WOULD THIS IMPACT
FREIGHT TRAFFIC?

What if we’re interested in displaying the impact of China opening up quicker
than expected, plausibly before the end of 2022? This would impact their growth
by 1-2% relative to the current baseline.

By adjusting China’s freight traffic accordingly, we get an immediate preview of
its forecasted impact:

‍


The effects of a 1% increase in China freight traffic in October and November
2022.

‍*It’s good to keep in mind that if you’d like to run a scenario analysis, it’s
necessary to have at least 1 valid multivariate model built. In this case,
Indicio has built 35 models composed of 13 leading indicators on data from 2003
to 2022.

‍


WOULD YOU LIKE TO BE NOTIFIED OF OUR NEXT CASE? SIGN UP TO BE ON OUR MAILING
LIST:



‍

‍

PLAYING OUT AN INCREASE IN OIL PRICES

In the face of slowing economic growth, the recent decision made by OPEC+ to cut
oil production in a bid to stimulate demand, would result in its increasing
cost. Let’s make this adjustment under the scenario simulation tool in Indicio -
specifically a 10% increase in crude oil prices. 



‍

In Indicio, we can tweak the variables accordingly and not only get an
indication of not only how it would impact the forecasted numbers, but also a
clear overview of its relationship with the other variables.

With these two scenarios in play, we posit that the models selected, in
particular the VARX Lasso and LSTM models forecast that the heavy vehicles
registrations will come in at 24.01K for October.


The effects of both adjusted variables on the heavy vehicles registration
numbers in October.

Let’s take a look at one month ahead.


The effects of both adjusted variables on the heavy vehicles registration
numbers in November.
‍

We pay special attention to the out-of-sample data to validate our findings.
This is important to ensure that we are not overfitting our data to any market
noise. 
*A good guideline is taking a quick look at whether your out-of-sample accuracy
error (using RMSE as a measure)  is lower than your in-sample data.



This is just one scenario example of what you can test. The beauty with the
scenario analysis functionality is having the capacity to optimize plans as
often, and to do so in any specific time horizon.

‍

IS THERE A PARTICULAR SCENARIO YOU’D LIKE TO SIMULATE? CONTACT US AND LET OUR
EXPERTS KNOW.

‍







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LATEST POSTS

Browse all articles
October 21, 2022


PASSENGER CAR REGISTRATIONS POSTS YOY INCREASE BY 9.6% IN SEPTEMBER

September’s results represent growth for the second consecutive month, sustained
from August and partly attributed to a low baseline comparison seen in September
2021.


September 23, 2022


UPTREND SEEN IN JUNE CONTINUES IN JULY AND AUGUST FOR HEAVY VEHICLE (16T)
REGISTRATIONS

July’s result was largely driven by Central European countries (+15%). August
was an even more positive month, with nearly all EU markets posting strong
gains.


September 16, 2022


PASSENGER CAR REGISTRATIONS POSTS YOY DECLINE BY 11.2% IN JULY, WITH GROWTH SEEN
IN AUGUST FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE LAST 13 MONTHS

Attributing to the ongoing semiconductor shortage, Germany (-12.9%) and Spain
(-12.5%) posted the strongest declines in July.



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models from academia with the specific leading indicators in an organization's
market environment. Helping your organization achieve the highest forecast
accuracy.

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