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Russia


WAGNER BOSS APPEARS TO ISSUE VEILED THREAT TO KREMLIN IN OMINOUS VIDEO

SHAKEDOWN?

Just a day after boasting that his men had “nearly surrounded” Bakhmut, Yevgeny
Prigozhin now warns of a humiliating scenario for Russia.

ALLISON QUINN

News Editor

Updated Mar. 04, 2023 9:23PM ET / Published Mar. 04, 2023 6:26PM ET 


VIA TWITTER



Just as the Wagner Group appears on track to bring Moscow its first battlefield
win in Ukraine in months, founder Yevgeny Prigozhin has released a nearly
four-minute video apparently issuing a veiled threat to the Kremlin.

Unlike a video released a day earlier, in which Prigozhin gleefully boasted that
Wagner was on the brink of victory in Bakhmut, this time he spoke solemnly in a
dark room to warn of the bloody consequences for Russia if his men were to now
“retreat.”

“If Wagner retreats from Bakhmut now, the whole front will collapse,” he said.

“The situation will be unpleasant for all military formations protecting
Russia’s interests,” he added, claiming the [Russian] army would be “forced to
stabilize the front” while “Crimea falls” and there would be “many other
cataclysms.”



Predicting that Wagner would be scapegoated for Russia losing the war, he said
mercenaries under his command would know exactly who to blame for the betrayal.
“And this is exactly the problem with ammunition hunger. … Regular fighters…
They will come and say, ‘Boss, could it be that this story is being played up
somewhere deep in the Defense Ministry, or maybe higher, in order to explain to
the Russian people why we ended up in this trouble? What if they want to set us
up and say we are villains, and that’s why we aren’t given ammo and weapons and
allowed to reinforce personnel, including convicts?”

Apparently trying to drill home the message that Wagner—and not Russia’s regular
army—was the one keeping the Kremlin’s war machine afloat, Prigozhin repeatedly
described his mercenaries as the “cement” holding the whole war effort together
“at the very top.”

It was not clear if his message was meant as an ultimatum to strong-arm defense
officials into sending Wagner the help Prigozhin has repeatedly alleged the
Defense Ministry is deliberately withholding. Or if it was simply a demand for
the mercenary group to get credit for its ruthless performance on the
battlefield.

While Prigozhin is long said to have had President Vladimir Putin’s ear, there
have been growing signs in recent weeks that he’s now become a thorn in the
Kremlin’s side.

His simmering feud with top Russian military brass erupted last month into him
publicly accusing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff
Valery Gerasimov of committing “treason” by trying to “destroy” Wagner,
supposedly because they were jealous that the shadowy group had outshined
regular troops on the battlefield.

He suggested they were also to blame for Wagner having been sidelined from
recruiting convicts for the war effort.

But the Kremlin so far has stood by its own military brass and omitted Wagner
from its announcements about the state of the war. And some close to Prigozhin
reportedly fear that his power grab might dramatically backfire. One unnamed
source in his circle told the Financial Times late last month, “There’s a risk
he could end up like Icarus.”





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Russia


RUSSIA BARS ITS OWN SHADOW ARMY REP IN EXPLOSIVE PUBLIC FEUD

‘BETRAYAL’

The spat between Putin’s military and shadow army has spiraled after accusations
that a representative of Yevgeny Prigozhin was denied access to a Russian war
base in Ukraine.

SHANNON VAVRA

National Security Reporter

Published Mar. 06, 2023 12:48PM ET 


SPUTNIK/PAVEL BEDNYAKOV/POOL VIA THIRD PARTY



A representative for Wagner Group boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin was reportedly denied
access to Russia’s military command in Ukraine Monday, in the latest sign that
Moscow is sidelining Prigozhin’s mercenary fighting group in the war in Ukraine.

The apparent snub comes as Prigozhin pleads with Moscow to provide Wagner Group
with ammunition it desperately needs in the war. The ammunition, though, has not
been delivered—an act Prigozhin said could either be “ordinary bureaucracy or
betrayal.”

“On March 5, I wrote a letter to the commander of the SMO grouping about the
urgent need to allocate ammunition. On March 6, at 8 a.m., my representative at
the headquarters had his pass cancelled and was denied access,” Prigozhin in a
Telegram post, according to a Reuters translation.

Wagner Group fighters asked Russia for more ammunition in February, noting that
Wagner Group mercenaries were dying unnecessarily in Ukraine as they try to
fight off a Ukrainian advance in Bakhmut.



The delays and the latest denial to the Wagner representative has raised
questions for Prigozhin about whether Russia—over a year into a war that has no
end in sight—is willing to use Wagner as scapegoat in case it loses the war.

“What if they [the Russian authorities] want to set us up, saying that we are
scoundrels—and that's why they are not giving us ammunition, not giving us
weapons, and not letting us replenish our personnel, including [recruiting]
prisoners,” Prigozhin said in a video, referencing recent measures Russia has
established to prevent Wagner Group from rounding up prisoners to run on
missions in Ukraine with little to no training.


 * WAGNER BOSS APPEARS TO ISSUE THREAT TO KREMLIN OVER BAKHMUT
   
   SHAKEDOWN?
   
   ALLISON QUINN
   
   

Prigozhin warned that if the supplies are not provided to Wagner, Russia may
lose Bakhmut—and more—to Ukraine.

“If Wagner retreats from Bakhmut now, the whole front will collapse,” he said.

Russia has been trying and failing to seize Bakhmut for months, with significant
losses, according to the National Security Council.

Although Prigozhin is questioning whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is
trying to blame losses on Wagner, Putin has been leaning on Wagner Group
fighting as a way to make up for failings of Russia’s more conventional armed
forces, according to a previous White House National Security Council
assessment.

Wagner Group fighting has been “a bit more effective” than Russia’s forces, U.S.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Monday.

In recent days, the focus of Wagner’s fighting has pushed toward Bakhmut from
the east and north, as Ukrainian fighters have retreated west of the Bakhmutia
river, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Even so, if Russia does prove victorious in Bakhmut, it likely won’t change the
direction of the war, Austin said Monday.

“If the Ukrainians decide to reposition in some of the terrain that’s west of
Bakhmut, I would not view that as an operational or a strategic setback,” Austin
said, according to Fox News, which was traveling with the secretary of defense.
“The fall of Bakhmut won’t necessarily mean that…the Russians have changed the
tide of this fight.”




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MELISSA DEROSA








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