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RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 24

Mar 24, 2022 - Press ISW

Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko

March 24, 6:30 pm ET

Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress in Mariupol, entering
the city center on March 24, but conducted few offensive operations elsewhere in
the country. Ukrainian counterattacks northwest of Kyiv in the past several days
continue to relieve pressure on the city, and Russian forces continued to dig
in. Ukrainian forces repelled limited Russian attacks northeast of the city and
around Kharkiv.

Key Takeaways

 * Russian forces entered central Mariupol on March 24 and continued to take
   ground across the city. Local Ukrainian authorities left the city in order to
   better coordinate regional operations amid the deteriorating situation in
   Mariupol itself.
 * Ukrainian forces conducted a successful attack on Russian ships docked at the
   occupied port of Berdyansk, likely sinking a landing ship and damaging or
   sinking another. Ukraine’s demonstrated ability to inflict serious damage on
   Berdyansk may disrupt Russian forces from renewing attempts to reinforce
   operations in Mariupol and around Kherson by sea.
 * Ukrainian forces did not retake any territory in continuing counterattacks
   northwest of Kyiv but forced Russian troops onto the defensive.
 * Ukrainian forces repelled renewed Russian attempts to advance toward Brovary
   from the northeast and complete the encirclement of Chernihiv.
 * Russian forces continue to shell Kharkiv and struck a humanitarian aid
   delivery point, killing six and wounding 15.
 * Russian forces secured several minor advances in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
   in the last 24 hours.



Click here to expand the map below.


The Ukrainian government and military directly stated for the first time on
March 24 that the Kremlin believes its invasion of Ukraine has entered a second,
“protracted” phase. The head of Zelensky’s office, Myhailo Podolyak, stated that
Russia seeks to turn the war into a partially “protracted phase” due to high
losses in personnel and equipment and the lack of significant progress in any
direction. Podolyak stated the Kremlin is changing its tactics and going on the
defensive to reduce Russian casualties “to an acceptable (from a propaganda
point of view) level.”[1] The Ukrainian General Staff similarly stated that the
Russian military leadership is "beginning to realize that the available forces
and means are not enough to maintain the temporarily occupied territories of
Ukraine and are conducting defensive operations.”[2] ISW previously assessed on
March 19 that Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of the
war and that Russian forces would likely go over to the defense.[3]

The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 24 that the Kremlin is prioritizing
restoring combat capabilities in VDV (airborne) units.[4] The General Staff
reported Russian commanders are increasingly deploying reserve officers,
conscripts, and obsolete armored vehicles to replace losses.[5]

We do not report in detail on the deliberate Russian targeting of civilian
infrastructure and attacks on unarmed civilians, which are war crimes, because
those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect
the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to
evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian
military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We
utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva
Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Russian forces are engaged in four primary efforts at this time:

 * Main effort—Kyiv (comprised of three subordinate supporting efforts);
 * Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv;
   * Supporting effort 1a—Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts;
 * Supporting effort 2—Mariupol; and
 * Supporting effort 3—Kherson and advances northward and westward.

Main effort—Kyiv axis: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis are aimed at
encircling the city from the northwest, west, and east.

Subordinate main effort along the west bank of the Dnipro        

Ukrainian forces did not conduct any new counterattacks or secure additional
terrain northwest of Kyiv in the past 24 hours. The Kyiv Oblast civilian
administration reported at 6:00 am local time on March 24 that fighting was
ongoing along the Zhytomyr highway, in Irpin, and in Hostomel—predominantly on
the southernmost advances of Russian forces attempting to envelop Kyiv from the
west.[6] Social media users depicted heavy fighting and widespread Russian
shelling of civilian infrastructure in Irpin on March 24.[7] Kyiv authorities
additionally reported Russian forces in Bucha and Nemishevska (just northwest of
ongoing fighting in Irpin) constructed new trench lines in the past 24 hours,
likely to defend against future Ukrainian counterattacks.[8] Russian forces
continued to shell civilian areas under Ukrainian control.[9]

Social media users geolocated footage released by Chechen forces on March 24 to
a street in Borodyanka, confirming the presence of Chechen Rosgvardia units in
ongoing fighting northwest of Kyiv.[10] A pro-Russian Telegram channel released
footage it claimed depicted Russian Colonel General Alexander Chayko, commander
of the Eastern Military District (EMD), presenting medals to Russian servicemen
on the outskirts of Kyiv on March 23.[11] ISW cannot independently confirm the
location of the footage, though Chayko deploying forwards to command EMD forces
operating out of Belarus would track with the observed tendency of Russian
general officers to command from near the front in Ukraine.

Click here to expand the map below.



Subordinate supporting effort — Chernihiv and Sumy axis

Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack towards Brovary on March
24.[12] Russian forces shelled the northeastern outskirts of Kyiv throughout
March 23-24.[13] The Kyiv Oblast civilian administration reported at 6:00 am
local time on March 24 that Russian forces were present in Baryshivska, Velyke
Dymerske, Kalytyanske, and Kalynivska rayons—all areas ISW previously assessed
as Russian advances.[14]

Russian forces continued sporadic and unsuccessful attacks to encircle Chernihiv
on March 24. The Chernihiv City Council reported that Chernihiv “faces
destruction” from heavy Russian shelling on March 24, but Russian forces did not
conduct any ground offensives against Chernihiv.[15] The Ukrainian General Staff
reported at midnight local time on March 23 that Russian forces are intensifying
aerial reconnaissance over Chernihiv to conduct battle damage assessments and
identify Ukrainian positions.[16] Social media users depicted the aftermath of a
Russian special forces raid on a Ukrainian position in Chernihiv on March 23 and
Russian forces are likely conducting ongoing tactical attacks on the outskirts
of the city.[17] A senior US defense official told Voice of America that Russian
forces are continuing efforts to encircle Chernihiv and remain 8-10km from the
city center as of March 23.[18] Local Ukrainian media confirmed the Ukrainian
General Staff’s report that Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful assault on
Slavutych, 30km west of Chernihiv, on March 24 as part of continuing efforts to
advance towards northeastern Kyiv.[19] The Ukrainian General Staff reported
Russian forces, primarily including units of the 1st Guards Tank Army, did not
conduct any offensive operations against Sumy in the past 24 hours but continued
to shell the city.[20]

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv:

Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks on Izyum, southeast of Kharkiv, and
may have conducted localized counterattacks on March 24. The Ukrainian General
Staff reported at noon local time on March 24 that Russian attacks on Izyum
failed and Russian forces retreated to the “southern part of the city,” though
ISW cannot independently confirm if Russian forces gave up ground.[21] The
Deputy Mayor of Izyum stated on March 24 that the humanitarian situation in the
city is poor due to Russian targeting of key infrastructure but that Ukrainian
forces retain control of the city center.[22]

Russian forces continued to shell Kharkiv city without conducting any ground
attacks in the past 24 hours.[23] Kharkiv city authorities reported Russian
forces shelled a humanitarian aid delivery point at the Nova Poshta post office
on March 24, killing 6 and wounding 15.[24] The Ukrainian General Staff reported
at 6:00 pm local time on March 24 that Ukrainian artillery inflicted heavy
losses on a BTG of the 59th Tank Regiment (of the 144th Motor Rifle Division) at
an unspecified location in Kharkiv Oblast.[25]

Supporting Effort #1a—Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts:

Russian forces secured several minor advances in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in
the last 24 hours. Local Ukrainian government officials in Luhansk Oblast stated
on March 24 that “facts are fact” and Russian forces successfully advanced in
Rubizhne and Popasna.[26] The Ukrainian General Staff claimed as of midnight
local time on March 23 that Russian assaults on both towns had failed.[27] Local
officials in Donetsk similarly reported ongoing Russian assaults in Avdiivka and
Ocheretyne, northwest of Donetsk, on March 24.[28] Social media users observed
Russian armor concentrated near Yasinovataya to support the assault on Adiivka
as of late March 23.[29] Local Ukrainian officials reported Ukrainian forces
repelled Russian attacks on Marinka, west of Donetsk, throughout March
24.[30] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported on March 24 that
Russian forces are forcibly evacuating citizens in Rubizhne and Kreminna to
Voronezh, Russia, though ISW cannot independently confirm this report.[31]

Supporting Effort #2—Mariupol:

Russian forces continued their grinding territorial advances in Mariupol,
entering parts of the city center on March 24. Ukrainian forces confirmed that
Russian forces seized the Church of the Intercession of the Mother of God in the
center of Mariupol on March 24.[32] Social media users geolocated several other
videos of fighting in Mariupol to areas close to the city center, confirming
ongoing Russian advances.[33] Several videos circulated on social media confirm
that Russian Naval Infantry and Chechen forces are participating in the
fighting.[34]

Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast Military Administration Head Pavlo Kyrylenko stated on
March 23 that Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boycherenko relocated to an unspecified city
outside Mariupol because the mayor was unable to stay in constant contact with
regional authorities due to poor signal in the city.[35] Kyrylenko added that
Russian forces are intentionally targeting the city’s critical infrastructure,
destroying heat, water, and electricity, forcing city authorities “to leave the
city to be able to work to save the people.”

The Mariupol City Administration reported on March 24 that Russian forces are
using loudspeakers to falsely claim to Mariupol residents that Zaporizhia is no
longer accepting refugees, the Ukrainian government has abandoned them, and that
Russian forces have captured Odesa.[36] City authorities additionally reported
Russian forces have forcibly deported approximately 6,000 Mariupol residents to
Russia as of March 24.[37] Russian forces likely intend to demoralize Mariupol’s
defenders and residents to force the city to capitulate.

Click here to expand the map below.



Supporting Effort #3—Kherson and advances northward and westwards:

Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations toward Mykolayiv in the
past 24 hours, though Mykolayiv Oblast officials reported localized fighting
continued at the border of Mykolayiv and Kherson oblasts.[38] The Ukrainian
General Staff reported Russian forces continued to take measures to restore
their combat capabilities and replenish supplies in order to resume offensive
operations.[39] Russian forces are unlikely to be able to successfully resume
their offensive toward Mykolayiv and Odesa in the near future. Local Ukrainian
officials in Kryvyi Rih reported that Russian forces carried out unsuccessful
attacks and have as yet been unable to move within artillery range of the
city.[40]

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 24 that Russian Rosgvardia units
are “resorting to terrorizing the local population” in Kherson to respond to
protests, and ISW has previously observed Russian forces firing at protesters in
Kherson.[41] The Russian Ministry of Defense released footage on March 24 of
Russian engineers clearing improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Kherson
Oblast, indicating likely ongoing Ukrainian resistance efforts in the
region.[42]

Ukrainian forces conducted a successful attack on Russian ships docked at the
occupied port of Berdyansk on March 24, likely sinking a landing ship and
damaging or sinking another.[43] Competing reports claimed Ukrainian forces used
TB2 drones, Tochka ballistic missiles, or local sabotage. ISW cannot currently
assess the competing claims at this time. The attack likely sank the Orsk large
landing ship and damaged or sank one other landing ship. Possible damage to two
other Russian landing ships docked in the port is unclear. Regardless of the
specific method of attack, Ukraine’s demonstrated ability to inflict serious
damage on Russian landing ships docked in Berdyansk, the largest
Russian-occupied port on the Black Sea (excepting Crimea), may disrupt Russian
forces from renewing attempts to reinforce operations in Mariupol and around
Kherson by sea.

Immediate items to watch

 * Russian forces will likely capture Mariupol or force the city to capitulate
   within the coming weeks and have entered the city center;
 * Russia will expand its air, missile, and artillery bombardments of Ukrainian
   cities;
 * Ukrainian officials suggest that Ukrainian forces may launch a larger
   counter-attack in western Kyiv Oblast in the coming days;
 * The continued involvement of the Black Sea Fleet in the Battle of Mariupol
   reduces the likelihood of an amphibious landing near Odesa, Russian naval
   shelling of Odesa in recent days notwithstanding.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[1] https://t dot me/M_Podolyak/29.

[2] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279600371019715.

[3] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign....

[4] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279786017667817.

[5] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279600371019715.

[6] https://t dot me/kyivoda/2625.

[7] https://t dot me/kyivoda/2625; https://t dot me/stranaua/32636; https://t
dot me/irpentip/3683.

[8] https://t dot me/kyivoda/2625..

[9] https://t dot me/kyivoda/2625.

[10] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1507038777633607684.

[11] https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1506956474546851854 ; https://t dot
me/milinfolive/79446.

[12] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279236014389484.

[13] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279236014389484.

[14] https://t dot me/kyivoda/2625.

[15] https://t dot me/stranaua/32653.

[16] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279236014389484.

[17] https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1506642077513310208; https://t dot
me/milinfolive/79431.

[18] https://twitter.com/CarlaBabbVOA/status/1506721726176051206.

[19] https://kyiv.tsn dot
ua/ru/gorod-sputnik-chernobylskoy-aes-v-opasnosti-okkupanty-pytayutsya-shturmovat-slavutich-2018599.html;
https://ua.korrespondent dot
net/ukraine/4460020-rosiiski-viiska-sshturmuuit-slavutych; https://t dot
me/energoatom_ua/3853; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279600371019715.

[20] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279600371019715; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279236014389484.

[21] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279600371019715.

[22] https://t dot me/stranaua/32698.

[23] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279600371019715; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279236014389484.

[24] https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1506975974507880456.

[25] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279786017667817.

[26] https://t dot me/stranaua/32647.

[27] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279236014389484.

[28] https://hromadske dot
ua/posts/zbilshennya-obstriliv-u-chernigovi-ta-vibuhi-u-chornobayivci-situaciya-v-regionah-zranku-24-bereznya.

[29] https://twitter.com/Jose_Pinoche/status/1506644757950382081.

[30] https://hromadske dot
ua/posts/zbilshennya-obstriliv-u-chernigovi-ta-vibuhi-u-chornobayivci-situaciya-v-regionah-zranku-24-bereznya;
https://t dot me/astrahandm/1898.

[31] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279786017667817.

[32] https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1507019561039659026;
https://twitter.com/Polk_Azov/status/1506997695604572170.

[33] https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1507015046542495766; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1507037937002856453;
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1506990415593062414; https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/1590;
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1506977952814227457;
https://t.me/MaksymZhorin/2787.

[34] https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1506990415593062414; https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/1590;
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1506998881606934533;
https://t.me/voenacher/12883;
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1507000810311491584;
https://t.me/voenacher/12883.

[35] https://t dot me/mariupolrada/8973.

[36] https://t dot me/mariupolrada/8989; https://t d to me/mariupolrada/8989.

[37] https://t dot me/stranaua/32635.

[38] https://t dot me/mykolaivskaODA/822;
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279600371019715.

[39] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279600371019715;
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279236014389484.

[40] https://t dot me/stranaua/32691.

[41] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279436034369482.

[42] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1507040437072244744.

[43] https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1506953417935179793
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1506873456918507525;
https://twitter.com/PVB40/status/1506863819733225479;
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1506895584954920962;
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1506869144846802944;
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1506866472420880384;
https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/naval-warfare/berdyansk-disaster-hits...
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1506969662789140480;
https://www.facebook.com/navy.mil.gov.ua/posts/340844301416492;
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1506961208909443075;
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1506900560167026690;
https://twitter.com/Cpt_Phillips5/status/1506961837409120259;
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1506974383956504576 ;
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279500747696344;
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/279600371019715;
https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1506997673919979520.

 


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