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Help Net Security
January 23, 2024
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2024 BRINGS NEW RISKS, WITH CYBER INCIDENTS IN THE SPOTLIGHT



Cyber incidents such as ransomware attacks, data breaches, and IT disruptions
are the biggest worry for companies globally in 2024, according to Allianz.



The closely interlinked peril of business interruption ranks second. Natural
catastrophes (up from #6 to #3 year-on-year), fire, explosion (up from #9 to
#6), and political risks and violence (up from #10 to #8) are the biggest risers
in the latest compilation of the top global business risks.


BUSINESSES OF ALL SIZES SHARE COMMON RISKS

In the United States, cyber has replaced business interruption as the leading
risk for the year ahead. Natural catastrophes rose to the third spot (up from #5
in 2023). For Canadian companies, business interruption jumped to the top spot
(up from #4 in 2023) followed by cyber incidents and natural catastrophes.

Allianz Commercial CEO Petros Papanikolaou comments on the findings: “The top
risks and major risers in this year’s Allianz Risk Barometer reflect the big
issues facing companies around the world right now – digitalization, climate
change and an uncertain geopolitical environment. Many of these risks are
already hitting home, with extreme weather, ransomware attacks and regional
conflicts expected to test the resilience of supply chains and business models
further in 2024. Brokers and customers of insurance companies should be aware
and adjust their insurance covers accordingly.”

Large corporates, mid-size, and smaller businesses are united by the same risk
concerns – they are all mostly worried about cyber, business interruption and
natural catastrophes. However, the resilience gap between large and smaller
companies is widening, as risk awareness among larger organizations has grown
since the pandemic with a notable drive to upgrade resilience, the report notes.

Conversely, smaller businesses often lack the time and resources to identify and
effectively prepare for a wider range of risk scenarios and, as a result, take
longer to get the business back up and running after an unexpected incident.


CYBERCRIMINALS LEVERAGE GENERATIVE AI FOR ATTACKS

Cyber incidents (36% of overall responses) rank as the most important risk
globally for the third year in a row – for the first time by a clear margin (5%
points). It is the top peril in 17 countries, including Australia, France,
Germany, India, Japan, the UK, and the USA.

A data breach is seen as the most concerning cyber threat for Allianz Risk
Barometer respondents (59%) followed by attacks on critical infrastructure and
physical assets (53%). The recent increase in ransomware attacks – 2023 saw a
worrying resurgence in activity, with insurance claims activity up by more than
50% compared with 2022 – ranks third (53%).

“Cybercriminals are exploring ways to use new technologies such as generative AI
to automate and accelerate attacks, creating more effective malware and
phishing. The growing number of incidents caused by poor cyber security, in
mobile devices in particular, a shortage of millions of cyber security
professionals, and the threat facing smaller companies because of their reliance
on IT outsourcing are also expected to drive cyber activity in 2024,” explains
Scott Sayce, Global Head of Cyber, Allianz Commercial.


BUSINESS INTERRUPTION AND NATURAL CATASTROPHES

Despite an easing of post-pandemic supply chain disruption in 2023, business
interruption (31%) retains its position as the second biggest threat in the 2024
survey. This result reflects the interconnectedness in an increasingly volatile
global business environment, as well as a strong reliance on supply chains for
critical products or services. Improving business continuity management,
identifying supply chain bottlenecks, and developing alternative suppliers
continue to be key risk management priorities for companies in 2024.

Natural catastrophes (26%) is one of the biggest movers at #3, up three
positions. 2023 was a record-breaking year on several fronts. It was the hottest
year since records began, while insured losses exceeded $100 billion for the
fourth consecutive year, driven by the highest ever damage bill of $60 billion
from severe thunderstorms.

Climate change (18%) may be a non-mover year-on-year at #7 but is among the top
three business risks in countries such as Brazil, Greece, Italy, Turkey, and
Mexico. Physical damage to corporate assets from more frequent and severe
extreme weather events are a key threat. The utility, energy and industrial
sectors are among the most exposed. In addition, net zero transition risks and
liability risks are expected to increase in future as companies invest in new,
largely untested low-carbon technologies to transform their business models.

Unsurprisingly, given ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and
tensions between China and the US, political risks and violence (14%) is up to
#8 from #10.


HOPEFUL SIGNS FOR ECONOMIC STABILITY IN THE COMING YEAR

However, there is some hope among respondents that 2024 could see the wild
economic ups and down experienced since the Covid-19 shock settle down,
resulting in macroeconomic developments (19%), falling to #5 from #3. Yet
economic growth outlooks remain subdued – just over 2% globally in 2024,
according to Allianz Research.

“But this lackluster growth is a necessary evil: high inflation rates will
finally be a thing of the past,” says Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist at
Allianz. “This will give central banks some room to maneuver – lower interest
rates are likely in the second half of the year. Not a second too late, as
stimulus cannot be expected from fiscal policy. A caveat is the considerable
number of elections in 2024 and the risk of further upheavals depending on
certain outcomes.”

In a global context, the shortage of skilled workforce (12%) is seen as a lower
risk than in 2023, dropping from #8 to #10. However, businesses in Central and
Eastern Europe, the UK and Australia identify it as a top five business risk.

Given there is still record low unemployment in many countries around the globe,
companies are looking to fill more jobs than there are people available to fill
them. IT or data experts are seen as the most challenging to find, making this
issue a critical aspect in the fight against cybercrime.





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 * Allianz
 * cyber risk
 * cybersecurity
 * data breach
 * report
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