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VEGAS WATCH




TUESDAY, JULY 8, 2008


HARDEN TRADED TO CUBS



The NL Central, which is apparently trying to become the new AL East, acquired
its second big name in as many days on Tuesday, as Oakland traded RHP Sean
Gallagher, OFs Matt Murton, 2B Eric Patterson, and single-A catcher Josh
Donaldson to the Cubs for pitchers Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin.

Gallagher seems to be the headliner going to the A's. He doesn't turn 23 until
December, and he has already logged 10 starts (and two relief appearances) for
the Cubs, with a 49:22 K:BB ratio in 58.2 innings, and a 4.45 ERA. He ranked
71st on Keith Law's top 100 prospects in the preseason, with Law noting he has a
"good chance to end up a solid No. 4 in the majors". That might not sound like
much, but the fact that he's already pitching in the majors, and thus the
probability of him being a meaningful contributor is quite high, makes him a
valuable asset at age 22.

Being a Cubs prospect, Eric Patterson has been incessantly fiddled with, having
started the year at AAA and already been up and down twice. Though 25, and
without a particularly high ceiling, he has hit well at Iowa, with a
.323/.356/.519 line, and 10 stolen bases in 10 opportunities. With Mark Ellis'
contract expiring at the end of this season, Patterson may be his replacement.

Murton has experienced a similarly hectic year, although he hadn't yet been sent
down after being recalled for a second time. He has seen very limited playing
time while with the Cubs, playing in 19 games but only getting more than two PAs
in six. In Chicago he's struggled, with a line of .250/.286/.300. He has fared
much better in more regular playing time at Iowa, batting .298/.397/.382. In 690
PAs with the Cubs in 06-07, he posted an OPS of 102. At 26, he's not going to
get all that much better, and immediately jumps into Oakland's crowded outfield
mix.

The final piece is Josh Donaldson, who was 76th on Law's top 100 in February.
That paints a very optimistic portrait of the catcher, as he's struggled
terribly in low-A this season, hitting .223/.282/.358.

Beane is buying low on the latter two, and probably selling high on Harden. He
has made 11 consecutive starts, the first time he's done that since mid-2005
(that was a streak of 12 starts). His velocity was reportedly down around 87-89
two starts ago, and he complained of a dead arm. He struggled with his
command--issuing four walks in five innings--in his most recent start on Sunday.
So one has to wonder about his current health, as the A's would have more
knowledge of that than anyone else. Or they may just think he's inevitably going
to break down in the near future. Harden's contract contains a $7MM club option
for 2009.


Whether Sabathia was traded "too early" is (clearly) debatable, but if Beane was
going to trade Harden, sooner seems much preferred to later. The whole point of
trading him is to unload risk; if that's your goal, there's not a whole lot of
sense in risking him getting injured in the next three weeks.

Not to be overlooked is Gaudin, a 25-year old who has made six starts and 20
relief appearances this year. In 62.2 innings he has put up a 44:17 K:BB ratio,
and has a 3.59 ERA. Though still relatively young, he made his major league
debut with Tampa at 20, so he is only controlled through 2010.




Posted by Vegas Watch at 11:52 PM 1 comments
Labels: Athletics, Billy Beane, Chad Gaudin, Cubs, Eric Patterson, Josh
Donaldson, Matt Murton, Rich Harden, Sean Gallagher, Trades



MONDAY, JULY 7, 2008


BREAKING DOWN THE WAGERLINE NUMBERS: JUNE



I did this for April/May, and thought it was worth doing again. This time the
discrepancies we'll see are based more on actual results, rather than preseason
perceptions.

I'm skipping right past the average percentages, and straight to the adjusted
ones. The line on the game explains about 63% of the variation of which team the
public is going to bet on, so any unadjusted list is just going to include lots
of bad pitchers on one end, and studs on the other.

First, June's most undervalued starters; the guys who have gotten significantly
less public backing than we'd expect from their game lines (min. 5 June starts):

Bedard's reputation has taken an extremely sharp downturn; I guess that's what
happens when you get traded to Seattle. A year ago he struck out 15 Rangers in
one game, and was on his way to putting together 5/6 of a Cy Young campaign
before getting injured. At the beginning of last month, he was 4-4 with a 4.47
ERA. That drop in the perception of him caused the above gap, and he's actually
been quite good in his last five starts (1.82 ERA). Of course, with that offense
behind him, the Mariners are only 3-2 in those games.

Some of these are pretty standard; Harang and Jimenez are pitchers who have been
significantly better than their record would indicate. Billingsley is 8-7 now,
but that's because he's won his las four starts. It's unlikely there will be
value in betting on him, and his 9.3 K/9, for long, so enjoy it while it last,
until people catch on.

Joba is a surprise here. It's possible that he is so overhyped that pretty much
everybody realizes it, and they forget that he's actually pretty damn good. He
needs to get the walks down, but in 35 innings as a starter, he's struck out 37
and allowed just one home run.

It's not entirely clear why Hamels was undervalued, as the ace of a team with
one of the best records in baseball. I suppose he was only 5-4 with a 3.73 ERA
through the first two months, but that's not exactly awful. I guess that's kind
of the point, though.

Here are the most overvalued, based on the opposite criteria:

Despite allowing 12 homers and striking out just 24 in his first 59.1 innings,
Byrd had a 4.10 ERA through the first two months. People saw right through that,
and they've been rewarded, as he has a 7.85 ERA and a stellar 15:11 K:HR ratio
since. I would advise any GMs considering trading for him to ignore the previous
two sentences, and instead recall this dominance.

Saunders is a good candidate to be high on this list again in July; he's 12-4
with a 3.04 ERA, yet his FIP is 4.50, barely better than the 4.92 PECOTA had him
at coming into the year. The two other Angels are in the same boat, if to a
lesser extent, as their records aren't nearly as gaudy, and their ERAs aren't as
unsustainably low.

There's not much more to be said about Floyd; 6.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 40% GB%. His
ERA is one of the more impressive flukes of the first half.

Now, the most underappreciated teams:

On June 1, these five teams were a combined 116-171, good for an impressive .404
W%. Obviously, not many people were all that interested in betting on them at
that point. They've slightly improved since, winning at a .428 clip, but not by
much.

Finally, the most overrated teams:

Again, no surprises here. The Angels are way ahead of the pack; that'll happen
when you're 10 games over .500 despite outscoring your opponents by only five
runs in the first two months.

The Cubs and Red Sox are no strangers to 'overrated' lists, and the hot starts
of the White Sox and Cardinals caused them to be overvalued by the general
public. Notable in their absence are the Yankees. That's partially because
they're in third place, but they also don't seem to have any particular pitchers
that the public gets extremely excited about.

A team to watch for in the coming months is everybody's current darlings,
Milwaukee. Part of it is the addition of Sabathia, who people are obviously very
excited about, but, as MoneyLine pointed out today, there also seems to be a
residual effect. Sabathia is good, yes, but it's unclear why 74% of people
jumped on the Seth McClung bandwagon on Monday night.


All data taken from Wagerline.




Posted by Vegas Watch at 8:31 PM 4 comments
Labels: Angels, Bedard, Byrd, Chad Billingsley, Cole Hamels, Gavin Floyd, Joba,
Joe Saunders, MLB Sides, Wagerline, Yankees



SUNDAY, JULY 6, 2008


THE 'SABATHIA GOT TRADED' POST



The whole world is reporting that the Indians have traded C.C. Sabathia to the
Brewers, so even though the specifics of the deal are unclear, I guess it's time
for a post.

There have been strong rumors about a trade between these two teams for awhile
now, and for good reason. Both teams are, essentially, trading from a position
of excess. The Indians are giving up a 2008 asset (expendable when you're 14
games out of first in July), and the Brewers are trading a potent bat that comes
with a questionable glove (valuable, but less so when you're in the NL and
already have Braun, Fielder, and Mat Gamel).

The Brewers are seizing their opportunity this season, as it looks to be their
best in the near future. Although they will likely benefit from Yovani
Gallardo's return next year, ace Ben Sheets will be a free agent this winter;
combined with Sabathia's expected departure, the 2008 Brewers rotation is
looking a whole lot more formidable than next year's staff.

By acquiring Sabathia right now, Milwaukee is maximizing his value, as he'll be
able to make two starts before the All-Star break. That means he'll make
approximately 15 regular season starts as a Brewer. Either Dave Bush or Seth
McClung will be moved out of the bullpen; it doesn't particularly matter, as an
ERA of about 4.60 would be expected out of either. In the NL, the over/under on
Sabathia's ERA would likely be around 3.10. Over half a season, that upgrade is
worth about 1.5 wins, plus the substantial value he'd potentially provide in the
playoffs. Add to that the two compensation picks Milwaukee stands to receive if
they don't re-sign Sabathia, and it's easy to like this deal from their
perspective.

In terms of impact on the National League pennant race, the team most adversely
effected by this trade is likely the Cardinals. Sabathia makes the Brewers the
clear frontrunner for the Wild Card (not that they weren't already), and
possibly even the second most likely NL playoff team.

It would be a mistake to not mention Sabathia's hitting prowess, as he boasts a
career line of .300/.317/.475 (in an outrageously small sample size of 42 PAs,
of course). His 440-foot bomb against the Dodgers provided one of the few
highlights of Cleveland's 2008 campaign.

Sabathia's departure probably won't register to Indians fans until he takes the
mound in Milwaukee on Tuesday night. Ever since his debut at the age of 20, he's
been a valuable member of the rotation, posting at least average ERAs in each of
his eight seasons. His value as an Indian peaked last year, both in reality (241
IP, 143 ERA+, both career highs) and perception (Cy Young award).

Sabathia's poor performance at the outset of the season (18 IP, 27 R, 14 BB, 5
HR in four starts) made headlines and, other than in trade talks, he hasn't been
in the news much since. However, he's been as good as anybody since mid-April,
posting a 2.16 ERA and 109:20 K:BB ratio in 104.1 innings. His 2008 QERA--even
including those first four starts--is an impressive 3.44.

Unfortunately, this is how a team with the Indians' resources is forced to do
business. From a business perspective, drafting Sabathia is likely one of the
smartest things the organization has ever done. They turned a #20 pick in the
1998 draft and about $30MM into 1,528.2 innings of a 115 ERA+, and the four
prospects they'll receive from Milwaukee.

The headlining prospect is Matt LaPorta, a 23-year old out of the University of
Florida. Last winter, Kevin Goldstein ranked him as the #1 prospect in the
Brewers organization, and Keith Law had him 37th in all of baseball. This year,
he's hit .291/.404/.584 in 296 ABs at AA Huntsville. He'll likely report to AAA
Buffalo, and could contribute to the big club as early as August. He'll likely
end up at first base, a position that has emerged as a weakness for the Indians
in 2008, as Ryan Garko has managed only a .243/.324/.342 line.

The details beyond LaPorta are not entirely clear, but reports indicate the
Indians will be receiving LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and a PTBNL.

Jackson doesn't look to be anything to write home about, as he's a 25-year old
with a 7.83 ERA at AAA Nashville, with 33 Ks and 9 HRs allowed in 56.1 IP.

Bryson is a 20-year old currently a single-A West Virginia, with a considerable
amount of upside. He was moved to the bullpen after five starts, and has
recorded 73 Ks in 55 innings, while walking 20 and giving up three homers. Back
in February, Goldstein described him as "[offering] plenty to dream on."

The fourth prospect sounds like it may end up being 21-year old Taylor Green. He
primarily played second base in 2006, but was then moved to third, apparently
because of Rickie Weeks' presence presence on the Brewers. The thinking is that
the Indians would like to get a good look at him at second before committing to
him, as he'd theoretically be more valuable there. In 2008, Green has put up a
line of .297/.381/.452 with Brevard County, with 10 homers in a park that
significantly suppresses power.

The Indians and Brewers matched up very well, which of course is why this deal
happened in the first place. The Indians got a high impact bat that will be able
to contribute to the 2009 club. They also received potential long-term solutions
for second base and the rotation, although the probabiliity of those two is
significantly lower. I'm in no real position to value prospects, but this seems
like a pretty decent haul, especially considering the heightened (perceived)
value of prospects over the last few years.

Related:
The Big Trade, Part I [Let's Go Tribe]
Meet Matt LaPorta [The Cleveland Fan]
Keith Law [ESPN]
All about LaPorta [CastroTurf]




Posted by Vegas Watch at 5:09 PM 5 comments
Labels: Brewers, Indians, Matt LaPorta, PTBNL, Rob Bryson, Sabathia, Taylor
Green, Trades, Zach Jackson



YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS



The man pictured on the right is hitting .219/.301/.360, and has grounded into
10 double plays.

Of the 20 AL catchers with 150+ PAs, he ranks 17th with a -2.3 VORP.

Jason Varitek, 2008 American League All-Star.

Photo: RotoRob.



Posted by Vegas Watch at 3:05 PM 9 comments
Labels: All-Star Game, Varitek



THURSDAY, JULY 3, 2008


THIS WEEK'S LINKS (6/30-7/4)



A day early this week, since I can't imagine this site will be getting a whole
lot of traffic tomorrow.

How good are the Angels? Sean Smith knows.

The streak lives! (See here for reference.)

The Schilling/Jack Morris comparisons are awesome.

Buster Olney, reporter? Fine. Buster Olney, analyst? No.

Something about some team that's doing well, or something.

A logo conspiracy? I think so.

A proposal (#17) to add a new wing to the Hall of Fame titled, "What The Hell,
They Were Better Than Jim Rice".




Posted by Vegas Watch at 10:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Angels, BBTF, BP, Buster Olney, FJM, Jack Morris, Jim Rice, Posnanski,
Rays, Rovell, Schilling, Sheehan, Silver, THT, USS Mariner



WEDNESDAY, JULY 2, 2008


FUTURES WATCH: WEEK 14



This week:

Oakland, 40:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 45-38
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 49.6%
Tampa Bay, 12:1 (BetUS)
+220 to win the AL East (VIP)
Current Record: 51-32
PECOTA: 92.1%

The statistics above do not reflect today's events.

Does this mean I'm going to have to do series previews every week? I hope not.

The home team is now 12-0 in this year's Rays-Red Sox games. That is a nice
little stat which will inevitably get blown out of proportion when they meet
again in September. Some even thought it was important enough to make Boston a
"contrarian" pick on Wednesday. They were wrong.

By the way, I would imagine it's quite rare to get a team that's five up in the
loss column at +220 to win the division. Although if you haven't gotten on board
by now, you're probably not in agreement with PECOTA's forecast anyway.

They Rays now have an off day before hosting the Royals for four; the Red Sox
are heading to New York for a four game series beginning on Thursday. So that
presents another opportunity for the Rays to increase their current 3.85 game
lead.

This week's results in Anaheim were not nearly as encouraging, but that probably
shouldn't come as much of a surprise, given the location. If the A's can survive
four games this weekend in Chicago, they have a chance to make up some ground
next week, as they host Seattle and Los Angeles before the break.

San Francisco, 300:1 (5Dimes)
Current record: 37-47
PECOTA: 4.6%

This isn't how it was supposed to be. The Giants' offense was supposed to score
three runs a game, and Lincecum and Cain were going to combine for a 2.75 ERA,
and an 11-25 W-L record.

Instead, they're "only" third to last in the NL in both scoring and OPS+. With
the exception of shortstop, they haven't suffered any major injuries, and
everyone has performed at or above expectations. They're on pace to beat their
PECOTA projection of 634 RS by only 20 runs, but that's with scoring down almost
7% across the board in the NL.

The real winners in this--assuming they don't win the division, which would
really just be embarrassing for everyone involved--may be Lincecum. He's been as
good as advertised, with a 2.38 ERA and 9.4 K/9. Somewhat shockingly, he's
gotten an above average amount of run support, at 5.1 R/G. That has allowed him
to start 9-1, and he's currently a close third in Cy Young Predictor. It's going
to be an uphill climb, but could end up being an intriguing storyline in the
second half.

Oh, and unless you really believe the playoffs are a crapshoot, I wouldn't bet
on them just yet. Although their rotation would set up quite nicely in October.
I must admit, I hadn't thought about that possibility until just now.




Posted by Vegas Watch at 11:10 PM 0 comments
Labels: Athletics, Futures Watch, Giants, Rays



HOME-FIELD UPDATE



About a month ago, everybody was talking about how home teams were winning at
the unusually high rate of 58%. Many explanations were proposed, including
increased parity, the decrease in scoring, scheduling, an influx of younger
players, and amphetamines (or lack thereof).


There hasn't been much discussion of this since. Why? In June, home teams won
53% of the time (214-190), right back at the historical frequency. So as
intriguing as some of the theories were, it looks (for now) like it was just
statistical noise.

That is all. Just thought I'd share.




Posted by Vegas Watch at 4:33 PM 4 comments
Labels: Covers, Home/Away Splits, Short

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