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Home / Markets / Mark To Market /  For sugar stocks, ethanol prices must hit
sweet spot


FOR SUGAR STOCKS, ETHANOL PRICES MUST HIT SWEET SPOT

Premium Developments on ethanol prices would be key to track for investors.
Photo: Bloomberg 2 min read . Updated: 13 Sep 2022, 08:27 AM IST Vineetha
Sampath

 * Shares of sugar companies such as Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd and Triveni
   Engineering & Industries Ltd are down 28-33% from their 52-week highs seen in
   April.



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Shares of sugar companies such as Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd and Triveni
Engineering & Industries Ltd are down 28-33% from their 52-week highs seen in
April. A significant upward revision in ethanol prices would help improve
investor sentiments. These companies have undertaken capital expenditure plans
to raise their distillery capacities which is why higher realization from
ethanol sales is welcome.



The government of India continues to push the Ethanol Blending Programme (EBP),
which is reflected in a robust demand from oil marketing companies, equivalent
of 10% EBP, and this is expected to go up to 12% in ESY23, said analysts from JM
Financial Institutional Securities. It is also reflected in continued assistance
on capacity expansion (distillery capacity at 8.9 billion litre, as per industry
sources), they added.

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Sweet as honey
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ESY stands for ethanol supply year, which is from December to November.

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Further, the ethanol blending target of 20% in petrol has been expedited to ESY
2026 from ESY 2030. The government has raised the fair and remunerative price of
sugarcane for sugar season (SS) 2022-23. The season runs from October to
September.

Against this backdrop, developments on ethanol prices would be key to track for
investors. The ethanol prices could be increased by ₹2-3 per litre for ESY 2023,
said news reports.

Given increasing traction for ethanol, the sugar industry is diverting more
supplies for ethanol production. In SS2021-22, 3.4 million tonnes of sugar
production were estimated to be diverted for ethanol, according to Indian Sugar
Mills Association (ISMA). In SS23, the quantity is likely to increase to 4.5
million tonnes.

As such, the continuity in ethanol programme is also dependent on the stability
in domestic sugar prices. To meet this objective and ensure adequate domestic
availability of the commodity, the government had regulated sugar exports for
SS22 with effect from 1 June. Initially, it capped the export volumes at 10
million tonnes, but following the record sugar production, an additional 1.2
million tonnes of exports were allowed.

In SS23, in view of the surplus production, ISMA expects the government would
allow exports of 8 million tonnes. The preliminary estimates of sugar production
in SS23 stands at 35.5 million tonnes and the consumption is likely to be at
27.5 million tonnes. These are roughly on the same lines as last year. Any
adverse regulation by the government for the sugar sector could impact investor
sentiments.


BALRAMPUR CHINI MILLS

+ Add to Watchlist

375.505.50 (1.49%)

Updated - 15 SEP 2022

377.95

DAY HIGH

372.00

DAY LOW

21,141.00

VOLUME (BSE)
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