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Will it continue a trend toward blue?
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PUBLISHED BY READ ONLINE | SIGN UP

Keeping up with politics is easy now.

BY AMBER PHILLIPS

One of the first things Vice President Kamala Harris did as she launched her run
for president was hold a rally in Atlanta, where she said this: “I am very
clear: The path to the White House runs right through this state.”

That’s because former president Donald Trump’s easiest path to victory includes
winning Georgia, which narrowly voted for President Joe Biden four years ago.

But if Harris can win Georgia, Trump’s path to victory gets more complicated.
And it would provide her assurance if she loses one of the three “blue wall”
states up north (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin).

Here’s a look at what each candidate needs to do to win this critical swing
state. We’ve also recently looked at Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

HOW HARRIS WINS GEORGIA

Harris campaigns in Atlanta this summer. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post)

For Harris to win the state, she’ll have to get as many people as possible to
vote. Georgia wasn’t a competitive state for Democrats until 2016, and since
then it’s been trending more in their favor. The state is rapidly diversifying,
and in 2016, Trump won by a relatively narrow five percentage points, notable
for a southern state where Republican voters outnumber Democrats. In 2020, Biden
won it by less than a percentage point, and that same election cycle, Democrats
won Georgia’s two U.S. Senate seats.

To see if Georgia continues that trend, analysts are watching how many people
vote in the greater Atlanta area, and how many Black people cast ballots in the
state overall.

The bulk of voters are in Georgia’s urban center of Atlanta. That includes many
of the White, college-educated suburban voters who chose Biden over Trump four
years ago. Black voters are also key to Harris’s success in Georgia because
about a third of its electorate is African American.

“If on Election Day, you tell me that Black voters turn out at the same rate as
White voters in the Atlanta area, she will squeak through in Georgia,”
Democratic strategist Cornell Belcher said.

She may have some work to do on that front.

A new Washington Post-Schar School poll shows Harris has support from about 83
percent of Black voters in Georgia. Exit polls in 2020 showed Biden won 88
percent of Black voters in Georgia when he became the first Democrat in nearly
30 years to win the state.

Harris needs to win over Black men who are thinking their lives were better
under Trump, said Michael Blake, the CEO of Kairos Democracy Project, which is
working to mobilize Black voters, including in Georgia. “We have to be very
clear about who will give you a better chance to get a job and make money.
That’s your closing,” he said of the message Democrats need to make.

On turnout, Georgia is breaking records with early voting; with more than a week
left to vote early, more than 1.6 million people had voted — which is nearly a
third of the total ballots cast in the state in 2020. But it’s hard to say who
will benefit. Some of the highest turnout has been from largely Republican
counties, after Trump and others have urged supporters to vote early, despite
calling it into question, too.

More than half of the ballots cast in Georgia so far have been from women, which
Democrats see as a helpful sign for Harris.

HOW TRUMP WINS GEORGIA

A Trump campaign rally in Duluth, Ga., on Wednesday. (Hannah McKay/Reuters)

For Trump to win Georgia, he’ll need to win back some of the suburban White,
college-educated voters who went for Biden in 2020 and build support from Black
men.

Georgia voters’ concerns about immigration and the economy reflect those from
people across the country, said Brian Robinson, a Republican strategist and
commentator in Georgia.

Atlanta has been one of the American cities with the highest inflation, and
housing prices remain high.

“People feel pinched; people have housing, but it’s not the housing they want,”
Robinson said. “People have jobs, but it’s not the job they want, or it’s not
paying what it costs to live where they are.”

Immigration is a big issue in the state, too. This year, a Georgia nursing
student, 22-year-old Laken Riley, was killed while jogging, allegedly by a
Venezuelan migrant.

There’s little evidence that immigrants commit more crimes than native-born
Americans, but this was a moment that crystallized Georgia voters’ feelings that
the nation is “out of control,” Robinson said.

“All of a sudden, Georgia may stay competitive, when it looked like the
demographic time bomb was about to blow Republicans out of here,” he said.

AMBER'S PICKS

HARRIS SEIZES ON FORMER TRUMP AIDE’S WARNING THAT HE FITS ‘FASCIST’ LABEL

By Patrick Svitek, Jonathan Edwards and Tyler Pager

HOW A CONSPIRACY-FUELED GROUP GOT A FOOTHOLD IN THIS HURRICANE-BATTERED TOWN

By Brianna Sacks, Scott Dance, Will Oremus, Samuel Oakford and Jeremy B. Merrill

OVER 230 REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES HAVE CAST DOUBT ON THE 2024 ELECTION

By Clara Ence Morse, Derek Hawkins and Carson TerBush

WHAT COULD HARRIS, TRUMP DO FOR YOUR FINANCES? ASK US YOUR QUESTIONS.

By Jeff Stein, Jacob Bogage and Alexandra Pannoni

WHAT ARE YOU CURIOUS ABOUT IN POLITICS?

Follow Amber Phillips on Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.

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