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MANIFOLD
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Forecast the future

🔥 Trending Topics
US PoliticsTechnologyAIEntertainment and Pop CultureSportsScience
Jack
trending
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

50%
Donald Trump
YesNo

47%
Joe Biden
YesNo

1%
Other
YesNo

0.3%
Gavin Newsom
YesNo

See 17 more answers
#2024 US Presidential Election
#US Politics
#Politics
2101
Ṁ30K
233
53
chris (strutheo)
trending
🐣What will happen in April 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]

84%
Solar eclipse causes serious injury to anyone (news must be from a reputable
source)
YesNo

74%
NVIDIA reaches a new all time high stock price
YesNo

33%
A Russian naval ship is sunk (not just a small boat)
YesNo

16%
Earthquake 7.5 or higher somewhere in the world
YesNo

See 108 more answers
#Grab Bag
#April
#2024
187
Ṁ20K
82
3
firstuserhere
trending
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
22%
YesNo
#GPT-5 Speculation
#AI
#AI Impacts
1467
Ṁ12K
190
69
Brian T. Edwards
trending
Who will be Time Magazine's 2024 Person of the Year?

21%
Other
YesNo

21%
Donald Trump
YesNo

19%
Joe Biden
YesNo

10%
Artificial Intelligence
YesNo

See 82 more answers
#Future US Presidents
#TIME Person of the Year
#AI Person of the Year
491
Ṁ29K
125
15
Nico
trending
Over (yes)/underrated (no) intellectuals according to Manifold [resolves to
poll]

91%
Ibram X. Kendi
YesNo

91%
Robin DiAngelo
YesNo

87%
Michio Kaku
YesNo

86%
Neil deGrasse Tyson
YesNo

See 65 more answers
#Philosophy
#Science
#Public Figures
535
Ṁ47K
220
51
Isaac King
trending
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
51%
YesNo
#COVID
#COVID origins
#Past Events
1011
Ṁ3.8K
1428
69
Keenen W
trending
Major League Baseball (MLB) ⚾Regular Season Matches

62%
Baltimore Orioles beat Kansas City Royals - Apr 3
YesNo

62%
Philadelphia Phillies beat Cincinnati Reds - Apr 3
YesNo

0.3%
Miami Marlins beat Los Angeles Angels - Apr 3
YesNo

21%
Milwaukee Brewers beat Minnesota Twins - Apr 3
YesNo

See 96 more answers
#Baseball
#Sports Betting
#Sports
53
Ṁ19K
1
8
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