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ASIA PACIFIC / Politics

KIM JONG UN FACES ANNIHILATION IN NEARLY ALL KOREA WAR SCENARIOS

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un looks on as he guides a training of the fire
division in this picture released on March 19. Pyongyang has spent decades
stockpiling millions of rounds of artillery and thousands of rockets in the
terrain north of the demilitarized zone, which sits some 40 kilometers away from
Seoul. | KCNA via REUTERS
By Jon Herskovitz
Bloomberg
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Apr 3, 2024

After decades of empty threats, much of the world tunes out when North Korea
vows to unleash destruction on its enemies. But in the past few months, some
prominent analysts began warning that Kim Jong Un may actually be serious about
preparing for war.

Now in his 13th year running North Korea, Kim is more aggressively testing the
boundaries of what his adversaries will tolerate. Backed by rapid progress in
his nation’s nuclear capabilities and missile program, the 40-year-old dictator
began 2024 by removing the goal of peaceful unification from North Korea’s
constitution and declaring he had the right to "annihilate” South Korea.

While such bellicose rhetoric would normally be dismissed — Kim could just be
posturing ahead of South Korean elections on April 10 — two prominent analysts
set off a round of discussion among North Korea watchers with an article
suggesting that this time Kim isn’t bluffing.

"Like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go
to war,” former CIA officer Robert Carlin and nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker
wrote in early 2024 on the website 38 North, which focuses on North Korea. They
didn’t forecast how soon that could take place.

Carlin and Hecker’s views are not universal: Most analysts argue that any
full-scale attack would be a move of desperation or suicide, inviting a response
from South Korea and the U.S. that would end the Kim family’s nearly
eight-decade-long rule. But with multiple conflicts raging in Ukraine and the
Middle East, it’s just the kind of war the world could stumble into — with
potentially devastating consequences for not just the Korean Peninsula, but the
global economy and, particularly, the chip supply chain.

Seoul’s response to all the speculation has been blunt: "The Kim regime will
meet its end” if it pursues all-out war, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said in
January.

Here are the potential scenarios if Kim decides to make good on his threats to
attack South Korea.

HOW IT BEGINS

Back in 1950, North Korean troops invaded South Korea, catching the U.S. off
guard. The forces of Kim Il Sung — Kim Jong Un’s grandfather — took over much of
the peninsula before U.S. and South Korean forces counterattacked. China’s
intervention led to a stalemate that resulted in a cease-fire but no formal
peace treaty, and the Korean Peninsula has remained split at around the 38th
parallel ever since.

Kim Jong Un is unlikely to risk a similar invasion. But he has shown an appetite
for smaller provocations that could spin out of control — a trait shared by his
father, Kim Jong Il.

Kim inspects a tank unit of the Korean People's Army, in this handout picture
obtained by Reuters on March 25. The North Korean leader has already shown he
has a long-term plan for his family to continue to rule the nation his
grandfather founded in 1948, signaling that his daughter could take the reins of
power decades from now. | KCNA via REUTERS

One flash point is the Yellow Sea border islands that are part of South Korea
but located in waters claimed by Pyongyang. In 2010, some two years before Kim
Jong Un took power, Yeonpyeong Island was the scene of a deadly artillery
bombardment that killed two South Korean soldiers and two civilians, while
setting houses ablaze. About six months earlier, South Korea accused North Korea
of torpedoing its warship Cheonan near the island, killing 46 sailors — an
allegation Pyongyang denied.

South Korea has since pledged that another attack in the Yellow Sea would be met
by an even stronger response, raising the chance for miscalculations on both
sides that could quickly escalate.

"If North Korea makes a provocation, we will punish it multiple times over,”
conservative President Yoon Suk-yeol said in January after North Korea conducted
artillery drills near a border island. The South Korean leader has taken a tough
line with Kim’s regime and responded to its provocations with military drills,
often enlisting the U.S. in shows of force.

ATTACK ON SEOUL

Any peripheral attack that escalates would immediately turn the spotlight onto
greater Seoul, home to about half of the country’s 51 million people. North
Korea has spent decades stockpiling millions of rounds of artillery and
thousands of rockets in the terrain north of the demilitarized zone, which sits
some 40 kilometers away from South Korea’s largest city.

That border region is also home to about 70% of South Korea’s $1.67 trillion
economy, the base for some of the world’s top technology and manufacturing
powerhouses, including Samsung Electronics, LG Electronics and Kia. Even a brief
conflict would reverberate throughout global supply chains, disrupting the
global economy.

Kim poses with soldiers after inspecting a tank unit of the Korean People's
Army, in this handout picture obtained by Reuters on March 25. With a 1.1
million-strong active-duty army, North Korea has a manpower advantage, but the
bulk of its forces rely on "increasingly obsolete equipment” dating back to the
days of the Soviet Union. | KCNA via REUTERS

In a display typical of his more aggressive stance, Kim watched his forces in
March fire off the weapons that could be used in an attack on the South Korean
capital. Just a one-minute artillery and rocket barrage against Seoul could
result in nearly 15,000 casualties, according to a 2020 analysis by Rand. A
one-hour barrage would see that number rise to more than 100,000.

In either case, a larger conflict would be inevitable.

FULL CONFLICT

If Kim Jong Un goes all-in on a war, he would likely kick it off with an
artillery barrage at key military, political and economic targets in Seoul.
North Korea keeps its howitzers, mortars and rocket artillery in hardened
positions and ready to fire on short notice for exactly this purpose.

At the same time, an estimated 200,000 soldiers in Kim Jong Un’s special
operations units — part of a 1.1 million-strong active-duty army — would try to
cross the border by land, sea, air and even tunnel, according to South Korea's
Defense Ministry. One goal would be to target bridges on the Han River that
flows through the center of Seoul, cutting the city in half and making it
difficult for millions of people to flee to the less-populated southern end of
the peninsula.

Kim Jong Un would also seek to impose huge economic costs as quickly as
possible. The Rand war game analysis determined that a five-minute North Korean
artillery strike on one LG-run factory in Paju, north of Seoul, would put an
$8.9 billion investment at risk and cause thousands of casualties.

But North Korea’s advantages in striking first wouldn’t last long.

South Korea is also ready to fight: It has Patriot defense systems to intercept
incoming missiles, 555,000 active-duty troops and a military budget that’s
larger than North Korea’s entire sanctions-ravaged economy. And there are also
28,500 U.S. troops based in South Korea, along with American spy satellites
constantly monitoring the Korean Peninsula.

Although North Korea has a manpower advantage, the bulk of its forces rely on
"increasingly obsolete equipment” dating back to the days of the Soviet Union,
the International Institute for Strategic Studies said in its 2023 review of the
world’s militaries.

North Korea’s few Soviet-era fighters and its squadrons of single-propeller An-2
biplanes — developed in the 1950s and with a top speed of about 160 miles per
hour (260 kph) — would be easy pickings for South Korea’s surface-to-air
missiles and modern F-35A jets, which can travel at speeds exceeding 1,200 mph.

"The United States and South Korea would essentially, instantly, from the very
first moments of the war, have absolute air superiority in every way that could
be imagined,” said Michael Mazarr, a senior political scientist at Rand.

It’s the same when it comes to other weapons systems: Pyongyang’s submarines are
mostly small underwater clunkers that can’t stray far from the coast because
they are easily detected. Its tanks are Soviet-era, and easily destroyed by
Stinger missile systems used in Ukraine to stop Russia.

What South Korea doesn’t strike in the first few waves would likely be subject
to air and missile attacks in the days that follow, leaving North Korea’s cities
vulnerable to destruction — as happened in the original Korean War.

"Inadequate availability of fuel and transportation assets, poor maintenance of
ground lines of communication, and insufficient training all constrain North
Korea’s ability to sustain large-scale conventional offensive operations,” the
U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said in a recent report.

‘BLOODY NOSE’ STRIKE

Another possibility is a "bloody nose” strike against North Korea by the U.S.
and South Korea, an option discussed when Donald Trump was U.S. president. This
scenario would only be on the table if the allies believed a large-scale North
Korean attack was imminent, with the intent to show force and remind Kim that
his antiquated military is no match for America’s might.

Kim greets soldiers as he inspects a tank unit of the Korean People's Army, in
this handout picture obtained by Reuters on March 25. Now in his 13th year
running North Korea, Kim is more aggressively testing the boundaries of what his
adversaries will tolerate. | KCNA via REUTERS

But the move was always seen as risky, likely leading directly to a bigger
conflict. Moreover, in recent years, many of North Korea’s liquid-fuel rockets -
which take time to fire off — have been replaced by solid-fuel versions that Kim
can quickly shoot from train carriages, lake beds and launchers hidden in caves
with little to no warning.

If Kim misjudged and thought the U.S. and South Korea were looking to end his
regime — instead of just deliver a message of deterrence — he might preemptively
use a nuclear weapon, said Duyeon Kim, an adjunct senior fellow in Seoul at the
Center for a New American Security.

A U.S. National Intelligence Estimate that was declassified last year said Kim
would probably only use his atomic arsenal if he believes he and his regime are
in peril.

"Our analysis right now is, effectively, that he will engage in increasingly
provocative behavior but not — is not interested — in escalating this into a
full-on war and that there is a kind of a limit on this,” U.S. Director of
National Intelligence Avril Haines told the U.S. Congress in March.

If a broader North Korean attack looked likely, South Korea would aim to deploy
new bunker-buster missiles and squadrons of fighter jets based south of Seoul.
U.S. bombers in Guam and ships and fighters based in Japan could also come to
South Korea’s aid.

The South Korea-U.S. alliance would use air superiority to target command
centers, weapons storage sites, rocket launchers, radars, military bunkers,
missile silos and nuclear storage facilities in hopes of wiping out as many of
North Korea’s assets as possible.

TARGETING KIM

Also on the target list: North Korea’s leaders, including Kim Jong Un. Yoon has
not been shy discussing his country’s so-called Three Axis plan that includes
preemptive strikes, full-scale assaults and taking out the North Korean leader.
Pyongyang’s propaganda apparatus has denounced South Korea for organizing
"decapitation units” and pledged to destroy "the puppet warmongers” with a
nuclear attack if they tried.

The question of nuclear weapons is the most harrowing. Various estimates
indicate North Korea may have 40 to 90 warheads. The Seoul-based Korea Institute
for Defense Analyses said Kim Jong Un seeks to have between 100 to 300 over the
long term.

A strike on the Seoul region with one of North Korea’s more powerful bombs could
cause about 400,000 fatalities and 1.5 million casualties, Rand estimated. North
Korea could also strike out against U.S. ally Japan, or target American
facilities in Guam or even in North America, although opinion is divided on
whether Kim’s regime has the ICBM technology to hit targets on the U.S.
mainland.

"North Korea has yet to demonstrate its capability to launch a nuclear attack
against the United States, with questions lingering about its proficiency in
reentry vehicle technology,” said Lami Kim, a nonproliferation expert at the
Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu.

North Korea has also sought to deploy lower-yield tactical nuclear weapons for
the battlefield, perhaps to slow down a U.S.-led counterattack. But use of
nuclear weapons would expose Kim to a far more powerful response, with the U.S.
being able to hit back quickly, and overwhelmingly.

In that case, the death toll for an all-out strike could reach into the
millions. A full-blown war could knock the global economy off the rails, leading
to trillions in dollars of damage. And Kim Jong Un’s regime would almost
certainly be finished.

"We assess that through 2030, Kim Jong Un most likely will continue to pursue a
strategy of coercion, potentially including non-nuclear lethal attacks, aimed at
advancing the North’s goals of intimidating its neighbors, extracting
concessions, and bolstering the regime’s military credentials domestically,”
said the latest U.S. National Intelligence Estimate report.

IS CONFLICT INEVITABLE?

The biggest questions now are whether the die has already been cast and what
could prevent it.

Most analysts say Kim Jong Un’s more heated rhetoric is just amped-up
saber-rattling, meant to influence South Korea’s elections, unsettle the West or
win more concessions. Kim has staged provocations ahead of every election held
in South Korea during his time in power, and he has more of an incentive to deal
Yoon’s conservative party a blow in the April 10 vote for parliament.

"The fundamental goal of the regime is regime preservation,” said Rand’s Mazarr.

Another variable to consider is China — historically Pyongyang’s closest
partner, which came to the aid of Kim Jong Un’s grandfather during the Korean
War.

Kim attends a test launch of a possible new mid- to long-range solid-fuel
hypersonic missile, at an unknown location in North Korea on Tuesday. Various
estimates indicate North Korea may have 40 to 90 nuclear warheads. | KCNA via
REUTERS

Beijing has every reason to prevent a conflict from starting or getting out of
hand. A nuclear exchange on the peninsula, or a conventional war that results in
North Korea’s defeat, would go against China’s long-term interests, potentially
leaving American and South Korean troops near the Chinese border and the global
economy in tatters.

But China’s influence over North Korea has long been limited, despite being the
country’s most important trade partner. Even when Beijing was cooperating with
the U.S. on the U.N. Security Council to condemn North Korean nuclear
developments during the Trump years, the measures failed to change Pyongyang’s
behavior. Kim Jong Un is also working to diversify his economy away from China,
selling some of his artillery stockpiles to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

That economic windfall — which could be in the low billions of dollars — may be
one factor that helps keep the North Korean leader in line, along with his own
desire for self-preservation. The fact that he’s selling millions of artillery
shells to Russia may be another signal that Kim Jong Un doesn’t actually want a
war, given he would risk running short of arms to defend himself.

Moreover, there is now a chance that Trump, who met Kim Jong Un three times and
generally sought better relations with North Korea, will again win the U.S.
presidency. Either way, the North Korean leader has already shown he has a
long-term plan for his family to continue to rule the nation his grandfather
founded in 1948, signaling that his daughter could take the reins of power
decades from now.

Kim Jong Un would’ve already invaded South Korea if he was actually preparing
for war, according to Daniel Pinkston, an international relations lecturer at
Troy University in Seoul and a former Korean linguist with the U.S. Air Force. A
simpler explanation, he said, is that North Korea is deterred from doing so.

"The North Korea leadership is waiting for a restructuring of the world order
and the collapse of the U.S.-led alliance system in East Asia,” said Pinkston.
"Unless that happens, I don’t see a theory of victory for North Korea.”

KEYWORDS

South Korea(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/south-korea), North
Korea(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/north-korea), nuclear
weapons(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/nuclear-weapons), Kim Jong
Un(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/kim-jong-un),
DEFENSE(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/defense)
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