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MARIJUANA MOMENT
PENNSYLVANIA’S MARIJUANA TAX REVENUE POTENTIAL STUNTED DUE TO NEIGHBORING STATES
ALREADY ENACTING LEGALIZATION, GOVERNMENT ANALYSIS FINDS
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POLITICS
PENNSYLVANIA’S MARIJUANA TAX REVENUE POTENTIAL STUNTED DUE TO NEIGHBORING STATES
ALREADY ENACTING LEGALIZATION, GOVERNMENT ANALYSIS FINDS
Published
1 day ago
on
April 1, 2024
By
Kyle Jaeger
Pennsylvania stands to generate $271 million in annual revenue if marijuana is
legalized and taxed according to the governor’s proposal—but it would have been
more if the commonwealth hadn’t been lapped by other neighboring states that
have already enacted the reform, according to a new government economic
analysis.
The Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its report on Gov.
Josh Shapiro’s (D) budget plan last week, detailing the economic impact of
adult-use cannabis legalization under his proposal.
Between the 20 percent excise tax on wholesale marijuana and the state sales
tax, Pennsylvania would bring in an estimated $41 million during the first year
of implementation, including taking into account added expenses such as
implementation costs and funding restorative justice efforts, IFO said. That
would rise to an annual net $271 million gain for the state general fund by
Fiscal Year 2028-2029.
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Cannabis Smokers Have Less Chance Of Cogntive Decline
Marijuana use is associated with lower odds of subjective cognitive decline.
People who consume cannabis for recreational or medical purposes report less
confusion and memory loss compared to non-users. Recreational cannabis use is
'significantly' linked to lower cognitive decline - which is notable as
cognitive decline is linked to dementia later in life. Recreational cannabis use
was significantly associated with 96% decreased odds of cognitive decline
compared to non-users. A possible reason for this is that people often use
marijuana to cope with sleep issues - poor sleep quality is a huge factor in
developing dementia.
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That first-year estimate is significantly higher than what the governor
projected ($14.8 million) when he unveiled his budget in February. Shapiro did
say it could grow to about $250 million in annual revenue, though, which is more
consistent with IFO’s analysis.
However, the figure could have been bigger if Pennsylvania wasn’t so late in the
game on legalization in the region.
“Currently, all border states except West Virginia have legalized and impose tax
on adult recreational use cannabis. These taxes were enacted recently in Ohio
(2023), Maryland (2023), New York (2021) and New Jersey (2020),” IFO said.
“Because nearly all border states already tax recreational cannabis, the
estimate is not increased for cross border sales that may have occurred in other
states that were first to tax recreational marijuana in a region.”
In other words, Pennsylvania can’t reasonably expect to see a meaningful
increase in tax revenue from out-of-state visitors since the state is surrounded
by markets that are already established or soon will be as in the case of Ohio,
where voters approved a legalization ballot measure in November.
Tax revenue from cannabis sales under the governor’s plan would go to
restorative justice initiatives ($5 million per year), the state Department of
Agriculture for oversight costs ($5 million), state police for enforcement
purposes ($2 million) and $500,000 for administrative costs. Any dollars
remaining would go to the state general fund.
The economic report also noted that “legalization of recreational use marijuana
should have minimal impact on the medical market” due to the relatively lower
tax rate for medical marijuana (5 percent). However, IFO said “it is unclear how
other factors (e.g., location of retail outlets) could ultimately impact sales.”
The analysis then briefly summarized various studies on the potential impacts of
legalization on traffic safety and accidental youth exposure to cannabis
products.
IFO released the report shortly after a Pennsylvania joint committee held
another hearing on marijuana legalization, this time focusing on criminal
justice implications of prohibition and the potential benefits of reform.
“I think we are really well-positioned to move forward with legislation,” Rep.
Dan Frankel (D), chair of the full Health Committee who previously sponsored
cannabis legalization legislation, said at the time.
The Health Subcommittee on Health Care has met several times recently to discuss
the issue. At their last hearing in February, members looked at the industry
perspective, with multiple stakeholders from cannabis growing, dispensing and
testing businesses, as well as clinical registrants, testifying.
At the subcommittee’s previous cannabis meeting in December, members heard
testimony and asked questions about various elements of marijuana oversight,
including promoting social equity and business opportunities, laboratory testing
and public versus private operation of a state-legal cannabis industry.
During the panel’s first meeting late last year, Frankel said that state-run
stores are “certainly an option” he’s considering for Pennsylvania, similar to
what New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) recommended for that state last year,
though a state commission later shied away from that plan.
Meanwhile, House Appropriations Committee Chairman Jordan Harris (D) said in a
recent interview that it’s “high time” to legalize marijuana and lay the
groundwork for businesses in the state to export cannabis to other markets if
federal law changes—and he sees a “real opportunity” to do so.
However, the committee’s minority chairman, Rep. Seth Grove (R), said he’s
doubtful that the Democratic-controlled House will be able to craft and deliver
legalization legislation that could advance through the GOP majority Senate.
He also challenged the idea that the Department of Agriculture is
well-positioned to regulate the cannabis industry, as the governor’s plan
envisions. Agriculture Secretary Russell Redding testified at an Appropriations
Committee hearing in February that he was “excited” about the prospect and
supports it, Grove said there’s no way to know if it could effectively oversee
regulations given the current lack of legislation.
—
Marijuana Moment is tracking more than 1,400 cannabis, psychedelics and drug
policy bills in state legislatures and Congress this year. Patreon supporters
pledging at least $25/month get access to our interactive maps, charts and
hearing calendar so they don’t miss any developments.
Learn more about our marijuana bill tracker and become a supporter on Patreon to
get access.
—
U.S. Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) also recently complained that Pennsylvania is
being “lapped” on marijuana policy as other states in the region enact
legalization.
Meanwhile, Pennsylvania lawmakers recently advanced a pair of bills meant
to prevent police from charging medical cannabis patients with impaired
driving without proof of intoxication.
A Republican state senator also says he will soon introduce legislation that
would remove barriers under state law to medical marijuana patients carrying
firearms.
In December, the governor signed a bill to allow all licensed medical marijuana
grower-processors in the state to serve as retailers and sell their cannabis
products directly to patients. Independent dispensaries could also start
cultivating their own marijuana.
A poll released in February found that about two-thirds of Pennsylvania voters
in the state support enacting marijuana legalization.
> Teen Marijuana Use Has Declined In Washington Since Legalization, New State
> Research Shows
Marijuana Moment is made possible with support from readers. If you rely on our
cannabis advocacy journalism to stay informed, please consider a monthly Patreon
pledge.
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Kyle Jaeger
Kyle Jaeger is Marijuana Moment's Sacramento-based managing editor. His work has
also appeared in High Times, VICE and attn.
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