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 1. Home /
 2. Documents Archive /
 3. Sovereign Debt Tolerance with Potentially Permanent Costs of Default


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SOVEREIGN DEBT TOLERANCE WITH POTENTIALLY PERMANENT COSTS OF DEFAULT

We investigate the effect of uncertainty about the nature of output costs of
sovereign default on debt tolerance. While the theoretical literature assumes
output losses lasting until market access is restored, the empirical evidence
points to persistent effects, and output may not return to its pre-default
trend. We include such uncertainty in a model of sovereign default and find that
it can significantly boost equilibrium debt levels. We also consider a
government which is averse to this type of uncertainty and seeks robust decision
rules. We calibrate the model to match evidence on the output trajectory around
debt restructuring episodes and infer output costs of about the size found in
the empirical literature, alongside significant uncertainty about their
permanence and a strong desire for robustness.

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 * Year of Publication: 2023
 * Author: Marcos Chamon, Francisco Roldán
 * Affiliation: IMF
 * Area: Global

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