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Skip to Content Welcome to Weatherzone Profile WEATHER * Search for a Location * National Weather * Weather News * Weather Warnings * Climate Outlook * Tropical Cyclones * Snow & Ski -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RADAR & CHARTS * Radar & Satellite * Synoptic Charts * More Weather Charts -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HELP * Legend * Glossary * Knowledge Base * About Us * Change Unit Preferences * Contact Us -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCOUNTS Log in DON'T HAVE AN ACCOUNT? Personalise your weather experience and unlock powerful new features. 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Sign upLearn More Icon Setting AUSTRALIA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Sydney NSW * Melbourne VIC * Brisbane QLD * Perth WA * Adelaide SA * Hobart TAS * Canberra ACT * Darwin NT WEATHER -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Weather Warnings * Tropical Cyclone IconTropical Cyclones * Australia Map IconClimate Outlook * Snow Flake IconSnow & Ski WORLD LOCATION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * World North America * New Zealand Oceania * Africa South America * Asia South East Asia * Central America * Europe * Middle East Welcome to Weatherzone Download the app RADAR & MAPS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Radar Satellite Synoptic Tropical Cyclones Pro Unlock more weather data and layers options. 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Make an enquiry AUSTRALIAN WEATHER Search Icon Radar Satellite Synoptic Chart Sydney 21.5°C Melbourne 17.8°C Brisbane 23.1°C Perth 25.1°C Adelaide 18.4°C Canberra 14.8°C Hobart 14.8°C Darwin 27.1°C Friday, 13 December 12:10AM AEDT Icon Step ArrowIcon PlayIcon Step Arrow LegendLayer Gradient Legend: Rain Radar Icon Arrow Selector Light Heavy Daily Forecast Live Extremes Warnings Map Layers Layer Gradient DAILY FORECAST * Today * Tomorrow Showers & storms are scattered across WA, the tropics & eastern Qld in troughs, some intense. Westerly winds between fronts are bringing showers to Tas & the odd shower to southern Vic & SE SA. A high is keeping much of SA, VIC & NSW dry. Hot in WA with humid easterly winds. Now Min Max Mostly SunnySydneyNSW 21.5°C 19°C 30°C Mostly SunnyMelbourneVIC 18.0°C 16°C 23°C Mostly SunnyBrisbaneQLD 22.3°C 21°C 31°C SunnyPerthWA 23.7°C 22°C 35°C Mostly SunnyAdelaideSA 17.1°C 15°C 29°C Fog Then SunnyCanberraACT 14.9°C 12°C 32°C Clearing ShowerHobartTAS 14.6°C 14°C 19°C Possible ThunderstormDarwinNT 26.7°C 26°C 33°C WEATHER MAPS Radar Satellite Synoptic Chart DAILY FORECAST * Today * Tomorrow Showers & storms are scattered across WA, the tropics & eastern Qld in troughs, some intense. Westerly winds between fronts are bringing showers to Tas & the odd shower to southern Vic & SE SA. A high is keeping much of SA, VIC & NSW dry. Hot in WA with humid easterly winds. Now Min Max Mostly SunnySydneyNSW 21.5°C 19°C 30°C Mostly SunnyMelbourneVIC 18.0°C 16°C 23°C Mostly SunnyBrisbaneQLD 22.3°C 21°C 31°C SunnyPerthWA 23.7°C 22°C 35°C Mostly SunnyAdelaideSA 17.1°C 15°C 29°C Fog Then SunnyCanberraACT 14.9°C 12°C 32°C Clearing ShowerHobartTAS 14.6°C 14°C 19°C Possible ThunderstormDarwinNT 26.7°C 26°C 33°C LATEST WARNINGS AUS Icon/Expand-Collapse/Solid/Expand (white) * Miscellaneous warning QLD12:29AM AEST Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy, Locally Intense Rainfall) for parts of Herbert and Lower Burdekin * Coastal wind warning WA10:14PM AWST Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Leeuwin Coast. Cancellation for Thursday for Bunbury Geographe Coast * Miscellaneous warning WA9:35PM AWST Cancellation Of Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Gascoyne and Central West districts * Flood warning QLD9:48PM AEST Minor Flood Warning For The Burnett River * Miscellaneous warning NSW/ACT10:48PM AEDT Gale Warning For Southern And Southeastern Areas All Warnings EXTREMES AusNSW/ACTVICQLDWASATASNT LIVE EXTREMES High Temperature Highest Temp Leonora Ap, WA 31.9°C (10:20PM AWST) Dec Long Term Average: 35.6°C Dec Record: 45.8°C (2019) Low Temperature Lowest Temp kunanyi /Mount Wellington, TAS 5.4°C (1:20AM AEDT) Dec Long Term Average: 3.0°C Dec Record: -4.5°C (1991) Rain Wettest Barrow Island, WA 73.8mm (Since 9am) Dec Long Term Average: 6.3mm Dec Record: 52.8mm (2012) TODAY’S EXTREMES High Temperature Highest Temp Julia Creek, QLD 41.7°C (3:46PM AEST) DEC Long Term Average: 39.9°C DEC Record: 46.4°C (2018) Low Temperature Lowest Temp Liawenee, TAS 5.0°C (11:09PM AEDT) DEC Long Term Average: 3.9°C DEC Record: -4.5°C (2008) Rain Wettest - - (24h to 9am) Long Term Average: - Record: - THIS MONTH’S EXTREMES High Temperature Highest Temp Walgett Ap, NSW 69.9°C (8 December) Dec Long Term Average: 34.5°C Dec Record: 46.6°C (2020) Low Temperature Lowest Temp Frederick Reef, QLD -49.7°C (11 December) Dec Long Term Average: 25.0°C Dec Record: 21.9°C (2019) Rain Wettest Corsis, QLD 456.0mm (MTD) Dec Long Term Average: 311.0mm Dec Record: 1038.0mm (2010) THIS YEAR’S EXTREMES High Temperature Highest Temp Walgett Ap, NSW 69.9°C (8 December) DEC Long Term Average: 34.5°C DEC Record: 46.6°C (2020) Low Temperature Lowest Temp Frederick Reef, QLD -49.7°C (11 December) JUN Long Term Average: 21.7°C JUN Record: 18.0°C (2018) Rain Wettest Tully, QLD 5099.6mm (YTD) Annual Average: 4070.4mm Annual Record: 7898.0mm (1950) Records data is supplied by the Bureau of Meteorology and has not been independently quality controlled. LATEST NEWS Previous Today, 10:54AM AWST Victoria's first 45°C in four years on the horizon Today, 5:27AM AWST 'Everest of the Seas' races through Aussie waters 11 Dec, 10:49AM AWST 40°C on the horizon for Melbourne and Adelaide 11 Dec, 9:59AM AWST Geminid meteor shower to peak over Australia this weekend 11 Dec, 8:27AM AWST Third cricket Test forecast: muggy with chance of Saturday storms 10 Dec, 8:04AM AWST Brisbane's warmest pair of December nights on record PlayIcon 07 Mar, 9:09AM AWST Climate Update - Summer 2022-23 PlayIcon 07 Dec, 12:46PM AWST Climate Update Spring 2022 Next * 1 * 2 * 3 * 4 Christmas Day Weather Forecast Late ShowerSydneyNSW 20°C 29°C Partly cloudy. Late shower. E'ly winds Mostly SunnyMelbourneVIC 17°C 27°C Mostly sunny. NW/SW winds ShowersBrisbaneQLD 22°C 30°C Partly cloudy. Showers. SE/E'ly winds Mostly SunnyPerthWA 18°C 32°C Mostly sunny. Fresh SE winds Mostly SunnyAdelaideSA 17°C 32°C Mostly sunny. SE winds tending SW Late ShowerCanberraACT 15°C 35°C Partly cloudy. Late shower. SE winds tending fresh NW DrizzleHobartTAS 13°C 22°C Mostly cloudy. Drizzle. NW/SW winds ThunderstormsDarwinNT 26°C 31°C Cloudy. Showers, chance storm. NW winds CLIMATE UPDATES Previous 03 Dec, 10:04AM AWST La Niña and negative IOD declarations unlikely this summer 02 Dec, 12:05PM AWST Australia faces high fire danger this summer 02 Dec, 8:22AM AWST Australia registers warmest spring on record 14 Nov, 7:41AM AWST A positive SAM has arrived – here's what it means for Australian weather 15 Oct, 9:15AM AWST Negative IOD signal emerging in Indian Ocean 01 Oct, 10:47AM AWST The SAM has gone negative – here's what it means for Australia 30 Sep, 2:59PM AWST Scales tipping in favour of La Niña PlayIcon 07 Mar, 9:09AM AWST Climate Update - Summer 2022-23 Next * 1 * 2 * 3 * 4 LATEST NEWS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Today, 10:54AM AWST VICTORIA'S FIRST 45°C IN FOUR YEARS ON THE HORIZON An intense burst of heat will hit Victoria this weekend and early next week, with temperatures reaching up to 45°C for the first time in four years. A hot continental air mass will drift over southeastern Australia from this weekend as a stream of northwesterly winds develops ahead of an approaching cold front. This air mass will bring the highest temperatures of the year to much of Vic, including Melbourne. Current forecasts suggest the temperature in Melbourne should reach the low thirties on Sunday before soaring to 40°C on Monday. If it gets this hot, it would be Melbourne’s first 40°C day of 2024. Image: Forecast wind and temperature at 5pm AEDT on Monday, December 16. The heat will be even more intense in northern Vic, with computer models predicting maximums of 45°C in the Mallee on Monday. Victoria hasn’t reached 45°C since 2020. Image: Daily forecast on the Weatherzone app for Mildura, Vic, from Friday December 13 to Wednesday December 18, 2024. Monday’s heat will combine with a surge of northwesterly winds that should get strong enough to cause extreme to locally catastrophic fire danger ratings over central and western Vic on Monday. A blustery southwesterly change will further exacerbate the risk of dangerous fires during the afternoon and evening. Image: Forecast fire behaviour index on Monday afternoon. You can stay up to date with the latest information about fires in Vic by visiting the CFA website. Today, 5:27AM AWST 'EVEREST OF THE SEAS' RACES THROUGH AUSSIE WATERS They call it "the Everest of the Seas" The Sydney to Hobart Yacht race is famous for its rough conditions, but even the wildest conditions in Bass Strait are basically just an average day for competitors in the Vendée Globe – the solo, non-stop, round-the-world yacht race in which the leaders are currently screaming across the waters south of Australia. This is the tenth running of the (roughly) three-month epic, which was first conducted in 1989. This year's fleet of 40 left the French Atlantic port of Les Sables-d'Olonne on November 10, with thirty-eight still in the race as of this Thursday, December 12. The map below shows the current position of the fleet, including the leader, Frenchman Charlie Dalin. Image: The Tour de France has the yellow jersey so the Vendée Globe tracking map obviously uses a yellow sail to show the leader’s position. Source: Vendée Globe. Competitors must stay north of the "Antarctic Exclusion Zone" – the area of grey shading on the map – primarily to avoid icebergs. Image: The fleet passes underneath the three Southern Ocean capes – Good Hope, Leeuwin, and Horn. Source: Vendée Globe. But they must also stay relatively far south to take advantage of consistently strong westerly winds as they pull almost a complete lap of Antarctica. Image: The Southern Ocean is not exactly a pond. As the video shows, those westerlies have been howling in the heart of the Southern Ocean this week, driven by a huge low centred south of Tasmania, which has enabled the leaders to make super quick time. One point worth noting is the current negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). That means the band of westerlies circling the globe in the Southern Ocean has shifted a little further north towards Australia. Image: The phases of the SAM for 2024 to date. Source: BoM. The Vendée Globe leaders have not tracked quite far enough north to duck into Hobart for a hot pie or some fish and chips – and anyway, they’re not allowed to stop – but it must be tempting. You can follow the race progress here. 11 Dec 2024, 10:49AM AWST 40°C ON THE HORIZON FOR MELBOURNE AND ADELAIDE It's going to be an uncomfortably sweaty end to the week for southern capital cities, with maximum temperatures set to reach 14 to 16°C above the December average. Temperatures will soar into the low to mid 40s across parts of southeastern Australia for three days late this week in response to a prolonged period of hot northerly winds ahead of a cold front forecast early next week. This surge of intense heat will impact large areas of central and southeastern Australia from Saturday, causing severe heatwave conditions across central parts of the country. Image: Heatwave severity for three days beginning Saturday, December 14: Source: BoM. While this isn't classified as a severe heatwave for Adelaide and Melbourne, both capital cities will see two to three days above 30°C from Saturday. The heat is forecast to peak at about 41°C on Sunday in Adelaide and Monday in Melbourne, according to our meteorologists. Adelaide will continue to swelter into Sunday evening, with temperatures remaining in the mid 30s until around 9pm. The image below shows the extremely hot conditions forecast to impact SA, western NSW and parts of Vic on Sunday, before the heat focuses on the eastern states early next week ahead of a southerly change. Image: Maximum temperature forecast for Sunday, December 15, according to ECMWF. Night-time temperatures will also be very warm, with Adelaide's minimum temperature not forecast to drop below 27°C on Sunday night. This is 12°C above the December average of 15°C, caused by a warm northerly airmass sitting over the city on Sunday night and Monday morning. The image below shows the warm northerly winds continuing to flow over the capital city early Monday morning ahead of a cooler airmass associated with a southerly change. Image: 850hPa temperature and wind forecast for 5am AEDT on Monday, December 16. There is still some uncertainty in the timing of the change, but it should arrive in Adelaide on Monday morning, cooling temperatures in the afternoon. The front and southerly change will then continue on their path towards Vic, arriving in Melbourne on Monday afternoon or early evening. Both capital cities will see the temperature drop into the low to mid 20s on Tuesday next week, providing some relief after the oppressive heat. Christmas Day Weather Forecast Late ShowerSydneyNSW 20°C 29°C Partly cloudy. Late shower. E'ly winds Mostly SunnyMelbourneVIC 17°C 27°C Mostly sunny. NW/SW winds ShowersBrisbaneQLD 22°C 30°C Partly cloudy. Showers. SE/E'ly winds Mostly SunnyPerthWA 18°C 32°C Mostly sunny. Fresh SE winds Mostly SunnyAdelaideSA 17°C 32°C Mostly sunny. SE winds tending SW Late ShowerCanberraACT 15°C 35°C Partly cloudy. Late shower. SE winds tending fresh NW DrizzleHobartTAS 13°C 22°C Mostly cloudy. Drizzle. NW/SW winds ThunderstormsDarwinNT 26°C 31°C Cloudy. Showers, chance storm. NW winds CLIMATE UPDATES 03 Dec 2024, 10:04AM AWST LA NIÑA AND NEGATIVE IOD DECLARATIONS UNLIKELY THIS SUMMER Australia should experience summer without the influence of major climate drivers like La Niña or a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, potentially heightening the risk of heatwaves, extreme heat and bushfires across parts of the country. Pacific Ocean climate driver During much of 2024, the sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific have been cooler than average, hinting at a potential La Niña developing in 2024. Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean on December 1, 2024. The map shows a classic La Niña-like pattern, with cooler-than-average water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Source: NOAA. La Niña is a broad-scale circulation in the Pacific Ocean that is characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures to the northeast of Australia and abnormally cool water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The image above shows a pattern like this which is why the Bureau issued a La Niña Watch earlier this year, meaning that there is a 50% chance of a La Niña developing this year, or about twice the normal likelihood. If La Niña was to occur this summer, it could typically cause: Increased rainfall across much of Australia Milder daytime temperatures Warmer nighttime temperatures in the north Greater risk of Tropical Cyclones Earlier onset to the monsoon Increased risk of heatwaves, but at a lower intensity Increased humidity La Niña is one of three phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, with the other two phases being El Niño and neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño). We have entered summer in a neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which usually brings ‘normal’ summer weather to Australia. Recent observations of the Nino 3.4 index show that the Sea Surface Temperatures anomalies in the central equatorial pacific have moved away from the La Nina threshold of -0.8ºC and toward the neutral phase. Image: Nino3.4 index observations during the last few years. Both the Niño 3.4 or 3 indices have not yet met the Bureau’s criteria for declaring La Niña. However, this is not the only criteria used by the Bureau and any three of the following criteria can be used to declare La Niña: Niño 3.4 and 3 indices below -0.8°C Trade winds in the central or western Pacific Ocean stronger than average during any three of the last four months Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is +7 or higher for a three-month average. Majority of models show sustained values below -0.8°C for the Nino3 and Nino3.4 regions Currently only one of these criteria has been met, with stronger trade winds occurring across the western Pacific. The three-month SOI index is 3.7, which is well within neutral boundaries and is unlikely to make this criterion in at least the next three months. The majority of climate models are predicting neutral conditions this summer. Only two out of the seven models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology are predicting La Niña for December, as shown below. Image: Global climate model Niño3.4 index forecasts for December 2024. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. While the Bureau is unlikely to declare La Niña this summer, the US Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) and Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) predict that there is a 74% chance of the La Niña phase of the climate driver emerging this year. However, their La Niña threshold for the Nino 3.4 index of -0.5°C is less extreme than the Bureau’s which is -0.8°C, and therefore easier to meet. Regardless of the Bureau’s declaration, Australia could see La Niña-like conditions develop during early to mid-summer increasing the chance of rainfall across northern and eastern Australia. Indian Ocean climate driver Another major climate driver for Australia is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is an index that measures the difference in sea surface temperatures across the tropical Indian Ocean. A negative IOD occurs when cooler-than-average water sits on the western side of the Indian Ocean, near the Horn of Africa, and warmer-than-average water lies on the eastern side of the Indian Ocean, near Indonesia. A positive IOD is the opposite of this pattern (cooler water in the east, warmer in the west). Each phase of the IOD also influences atmospheric conditions above the Indian Ocean and surrounding countries. For Australia, a negative IOD typically increases the likelihood of above average rain over large areas of the country, while also promoting cooler days in the country’s south and east. IOD events typically occur between May and November and break down when the monsoon arrives in summer. The IOD index had been in a predominantly negative phase over the last couple of months, since mid-October, however it has recently jumped back into neutral conditions. Image: IOD index observations during the last few years. While it had been negative for weeks, the Bureau typically does not declare a negative IOD event unless the index is below the -0.4°C threshold for at least eight weeks. While the IOD has been officially neutral and will continue to be with the arrival of the monsoon expected in December, the brief negative phase seen in recent weeks has been causing above average rainfall and storm activity across large areas of Australia. Image: Australian rainfall deciles for November 2024. Source: Bureau of Meteorology The rainfall in November and also the opening days of December most likely has been caused in part by this negative IOD-like pattern, which is associated with much warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) off the northwest shelf of Australia. Image: Sea surface temperature anomaly for Sunday, December 1. Source Bureau of Meteorology The unusually warm waters to the northwest of WA are enhancing the moisture in the atmosphere in the region, which is being transported towards the countries southeast by frequent northwest cloud bands. While the IOD is expected to be neutral in the coming months, these warm waters could continue to enhance rainfall across parts of Australia this summer. The ocean temperatures to the country's southeast are also abnormally warm, which could increase the potential for rain, thunderstorms and humidity over eastern Australia in the coming months. Eastern Australia could also see enhanced easterly winds this summer thanks to prolonged phases of positive SAM. This may enhance rain and storm activity in the country’s east and southeast in the months ahead. What to expect this summer During early December, large parts of the country are forecast to be wetter than average due to the warm SSTs surrounding much of Australia, along with the influence of La Niña-like conditions and the likely arrival of the monsoon. Images: Chance of wetter than normal forecast for the summer months according to the ECMWF-SEAS5 model You can see in the maps above that later in summer, much of Australia is forecast to become drier than average, except for pockets of eastern Australia. Despite the rainfall signal in early summer, daytime and nighttime temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average across the country. With La Niña and the negative IOD unlikely to occur, Australia faces an increased risk of extreme heat and bushfires this summer. Large areas of the NT, Vic and parts of NSW, WA and SA have an increased risk of bushfires this summer, with dry and warm conditions forecast to continue. 02 Dec 2024, 12:05PM AWST AUSTRALIA FACES HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS SUMMER Australia recorded its warmest spring on record, with also severe rainfall deficiencies occurring across parts of the country, setting the stage for high fire risk this summer. The Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council (AFAC) released their summer bushfire outlook for 2024 on Thursday, November 28, showing large areas of the NT, Vic and parts of NSW, WA and SA have an increased risk of bushfires this summer. The red shading on the map below shows areas that have an increased risk of fires over the next three months. The remaining grey areas on the map have a near-normal risk of summer fires, according to the AFAC outlook. Image: Australian seasonal bushfire outlook for spring 2024. Source: AFAC The AFAC outlook shows elevated fire danger across five states and territories because of: Forecast above average temperatures The Bureau has forecast drier conditions in mid to late summer across much of Australia, apart from the east of the country which should continue to be wet. Severe rainfall deficiencies and drought across parts of southern Australia. Winter spring rainfall which has led to substantial fuel loads in some areas. The warmest spring on record which helped dry out and make materials flammable. Unburnt areas across southern NT. Severe or serious rainfall deficiencies have been observed in northwest, southwest and far southern WA, southern and southeast SA, western and northeast Vic, southern NSW and the northwest and coastal fringes of Tas in the 15 months leading up to November 2024. Image: Rainfall deficiencies during the 15-month period between August 1, 2023, and October 31, 2023. Source: BOM The severe drought in these areas has resulted in large amounts of dry or dead plant material which are very flammable. A lack of autumn and winter spring rainfall was also observed across northeast Vic, the Mornington Peninsula, southwest Gippsland and Greater Melbourne and parts of central NSW, increasing the fire risk in these areas during summer. Meanwhile normal fire risk is forecast for northern and eastern parts of Australia due to the imminent monsoon arrival in the north and above average rainfall forecast in the east. These areas should still remain vigilant during the summer months, if this wetter-than-average weather does not eventuate, the risk of fires will also be higher than normal. 02 Dec 2024, 8:22AM AWST AUSTRALIA REGISTERS WARMEST SPRING ON RECORD Australia just had its warmest spring on record with a mean temperature more than 2°C above the long-term average. The national mean temperature in spring 2024 – which is the average of 112 weather stations spread out across the country – was about 24.58°C. This is exceptionally high for spring, coming in at 2.08°C above the 1961-90 long-term average. This huge anomaly made spring 2024 Australia’s warmest spring in records dating back to 1910, beating the previous record of +2.03°C from 2020. Image: Australia’s spring mean temperature anomalies between 1910 and 2024. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Nowhere in Australia had a cooler-than-average spring, and most of the country experienced average spring temperatures that were in the top 10 percent of historical records. The map below shows the observed mean temperature deciles for Australia in spring 2024. The orange shading shows that temperatures were above average almost everywhere, while the darkest shading reveals that parts of four states and one territory experienced record-breaking warmth during the season. Image: Observed mean temperature deciles during spring 2024. Source: Bureau of Meteorology Here’s how spring 2024 ranked out of 115 years of observations (1910 to 2024) for each state and territory, based on the mean temperature anomaly relative to 1961-90: Queensland: +2.47°C - warmest on record WA: +2.02°C - 3rd warmest on record NSW/ACT: +2.17°C - 8th warmest on record SA: +2.15°C - 5th warmest on record NT: +1.70°C - 4th warmest on record Victoria: +1.60°C - 6th warmest on record Tasmania: +0.76°C - 9th warmest on record Last season’s exceptional air temperature anomaly was partially driven by the influence of abnormally warm oceans surrounding the country. While the final data isn’t yet available for the whole season, sea surface temperatures in the Australian region were running at record-breaking levels through the middle of the season and have remained well above average in recent weeks. Image: Sea surface temperature anomaly on the final day of spring 2024, showing abnormally warm water surrounding Australia. Source: NOAA Australia’s record-breaking spring warmth is one piece of a larger puzzle that reveals a broader picture of global warming in 2024. According to the World Meteorological Organization, 2024 is on track to become Earth’s hottest year on record. 14 Nov 2024, 7:41AM AWST A POSITIVE SAM HAS ARRIVED – HERE'S WHAT IT MEANS FOR AUSTRALIAN WEATHER The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has shifted into a positive phase and Australia is already feeling its wet and stormy influence. With this positive SAM expected to linger into the back half of November, enhanced rain and thunderstorm activity is likely to remain a prominent feature over Australia in the coming weeks. What is the Southern Annular Mode? The SAM is one of Australia main broad-scale climate drivers. It typically influences Australia’s day-to-day weather patterns on the scale of a few weeks at a time. The SAM is an index that measures the north-south displacement of a westerly wind belt that flows around the middle latitudes Southern Hemisphere, passing between Australia and Antarctica. When the SAM is in a positive phase, these westerly winds, and the cold fronts and low pressure systems they carry, are located further south than usual for that time of year. When the SAM is negative, the westerly winds, fronts and low are positioned further north than usual for that time of year. The SAM’s influence on Australian weather varies throughout the year. For example, a negative SAM typically increases wind, rain and snow potential over large areas of southern Australia in winter. By contrast, a negative SAM in summer increases the likelihood of dry weather over most of southeastern and eastern Australia. What is the SAM doing now? The SAM entered a positive phase in the first week of November and has remained positive in the past fortnight. Forecast models suggest that this positive SAM phase should linger throughout November and could spill into early December. Image: SAM observations and forecast. Source: Bureau of Meteorology A positive SAM during late spring and early summer usually increases the flow of air from the Coral and Tasman Seas towards eastern Australia. This increase in moisture-laden easterly winds can enhance rain and thunderstorm activity over much of eastern and southeastern Australia. Image: Typical positive SAM impacts during summer. This month’s positive SAM event is already having a noticeable impact on Australia’s weather, and this influence will likely continue into the back half of November. Rain and thunderstorms have developed over parts of eastern Australia almost every day this month, with severe thunderstorms hitting parts of Qld and NSW on numerous occasions in the past fortnight. Looking ahead, computer models predict further wet and stormy weather over large parts of Australia in the coming two weeks, including large areas of eastern Australia. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the next 7 days (for the week ending on Wednesday, November 20, 2024). The map above shows that eastern Australia is not the only part of the country that’s expecting substantial rain in the coming week. In addition to the positive SAM, above average sea surface temperatures to the northwest of Australia will also help fuel widespread rain and thunderstorms over northern and western Australia in the coming fortnight. EXTREMES & RECORDS AusNSW/ACTVICQLDWASATASNT LIVE EXTREMES High Temperature Highest Temp Leonora Ap, WA 31.9°C (10:20PM AWST) Dec Long Term Average: 35.6°C Dec Record: 45.8°C (2019) Low Temperature Lowest Temp kunanyi /Mount Wellington, TAS 5.4°C (1:20AM AEDT) Dec Long Term Average: 3.0°C Dec Record: -4.5°C (1991) Rain Wettest Barrow Island, WA 73.8mm (Since 9am) Dec Long Term Average: 6.3mm Dec Record: 52.8mm (2012) TODAY’S EXTREMES High Temperature Highest Temp Julia Creek, QLD 41.7°C (3:46PM AEST) DEC Long Term Average: 39.9°C DEC Record: 46.4°C (2018) Low Temperature Lowest Temp Liawenee, TAS 5.0°C (11:09PM AEDT) DEC Long Term Average: 3.9°C DEC Record: -4.5°C (2008) Rain Wettest - - (24h to 9am) Long Term Average: - Record: - THIS MONTH’S EXTREMES High Temperature Highest Temp Walgett Ap, NSW 69.9°C (8 December) Dec Long Term Average: 34.5°C Dec Record: 46.6°C (2020) Low Temperature Lowest Temp Frederick Reef, QLD -49.7°C (11 December) Dec Long Term Average: 25.0°C Dec Record: 21.9°C (2019) Rain Wettest Corsis, QLD 456.0mm (MTD) Dec Long Term Average: 311.0mm Dec Record: 1038.0mm (2010) THIS YEAR’S EXTREMES High Temperature Highest Temp Walgett Ap, NSW 69.9°C (8 December) DEC Long Term Average: 34.5°C DEC Record: 46.6°C (2020) Low Temperature Lowest Temp Frederick Reef, QLD -49.7°C (11 December) JUN Long Term Average: 21.7°C JUN Record: 18.0°C (2018) Rain Wettest Tully, QLD 5099.6mm (YTD) Annual Average: 4070.4mm Annual Record: 7898.0mm (1950) Records data is supplied by the Bureau of Meteorology and has not been independently quality controlled. 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