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Submission: On June 02 via manual from CA — Scanned from CA
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* Home * Premium * Contributors * The Market Ear * Merch * About * More * RSS * Donate * Advertise LOGIN LOGIN Username Password Login Create new accountReset your password This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. ZeroHedge Reads * Acting Man * Alt-Market * Bombthrower * Capitalist Exploits * Christophe Barraud * Dr. Housing Bubble * Daneric's Elliott Waves * Financial Revolutionist * ForexLive * Fundist * Gains Pains & Capital * Gefira * GMG Research * Gold Core * Implode-Explode * Insider Paper * Liberty Blitzkrieg * Max Keiser * Mises Institute * Mish Talk * Newsquawk * Of Two Minds * Oil Price * Open The Books * Pandemic: War Room * Peter Schiff * Quoth The Raven Rsrch * Rebooting Capitalism * Safehaven * Slope of Hope * SpotGamma * TF Metals Report * The Automatic Earth * The Burning Platform * The Economic Populist * The Saker * Themis Trading * Value Walk * Wolf Street * skwealthacademy Expand -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WTI HOLDS AT DAY'S LOW AFTER CRUDE INVENTORY DRAW by Tyler Durden Wednesday, Jun 01, 2022 - 08:39 PM Oil prices pumped (after OPEC+ rejected WSJ's comments on Russia yesterday and cut its estimate for global year-end over-supply) and dumped to end the day near their lows after the Biden administration said it still hopes to engage with Saudi Arabia. Markets took the headline as a concrete step by the administration to actively fight energy costs, traders said. > “Meaningful progress probably takes time to come to fruition but headlines > around progress will keep some sort of a governor on crude rallies,” > said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management Traders were predicting a drop in crude oil inventories, but an increase in gasoline and distillate stockpiles. Recommended Videos 1 / 5 Wall Street Bounces, After Selloff Fed Boosts Liquidity Read More Video Player is loading. Play Video Unmute Duration 0:33 / Current Time 0:04 Advanced Settings Loaded: 100.00% 0:04 Remaining Time -0:29 FullscreenPauseUp Next This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. 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Settings Playback Speed Normal Video Quality Auto (480p) Replay the list * Powered by AnyClip * Privacy Policy TOP ARTICLES Wall Street Bounces, After Selloff Fed Boosts Liquidity NOW PLAYING UP NEXT China’s Companies Have Worst Quarter on Record, Beige Book Says NOW PLAYING UP NEXT U.S.-Saudi Oil Alliance Under Consideration, Brouillette Says NOW PLAYING UP NEXT ETF Volumes Surge in Current Market Environment NOW PLAYING UP NEXT Investors Have Given Up on a V-Shaped Recovery, BNY's Young Cautions NOW PLAYING UP NEXT Wall Street Bounces, After Selloff Fed Boosts Liquidity API * Crude -1.181mm (-67k exp) * Cushing +177k * Gasoline -256k * Distillates +858k US crude stocks fell for the 3rd straight week, with a bigger than expected draw last week. Interestingly,. Distillates saw their 3rd straight weekly build... Source: Bloomberg WTI was hovering around $114.75 ahead of the API print, unchanged on the day and didn't move after the data hit. > “Oil markets are a dead cert to tighten further following EU’s ban on Russian > oil,” PVM Oil Associates analyst Stephen Brennock said in a note. > > “This, in turn, should ensure further upside in oil prices in the second half > of this year. The Russian oil embargo is finally over the line, but more price > pain is on the horizon for the EU and its Western partners” The 3-2-1 crack, which approximates turning crude into gasoline and diesel, soared to a new record high of $55.26 today... As Bloomberg's Javier Blas noted earlier this suggests the refined products markets continue to lead (where's the demand destruction?), encouraging higher refinery runs. Additionally, Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial said that “the fuel fundamentals of diesel and gasoline is whats going to keep crude supported at least into the driving season of July and that’s the major catalyst for crude." 9,55522 NEVER MISS THE NEWS THAT MATTERS MOST ZEROHEDGE DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX Receive a daily recap featuring a curated list of must-read stories. Show Comments WANT MORE OF THE NEWS YOU WON'T GET ANYWHERE ELSE? SIGN UP NOW AND GET A CURATED DAILY RECAP OF THE MOST POPULAR AND IMPORTANT STORIES DELIVERED RIGHT TO YOUR INBOX. Today's Top Stories+ HOT TAKES COURTESY OF THE MARKET EAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHING THE ASYMMETRY See TME's daily newsletter email below. For the 24/7 market intelligence feed and thematic trading emails, sign up for ZH premium here. Kolanovic says we will crawl back to flat for the year Mark-to-Marko is forever bullish: "Despite the steep selloff, we believe that markets will recover YTD losses and result in a broadly unchanged year. This is now an out of consensus “bullish” view, with most strategists now negative" He is very right on this being a contrarian view... If we go to 4300 - blame the insiders Contrary to the still very bearish sentiment, insiders have been loading up on stuff. Remember JPM from last week: "...insider buying activity at 1STDev above trend for S&P 500 based on the breadth of net insider buying.." SOURCE: JPM SPX - getting there So far we reversed on the 4200 resistance. Note the 50 day approaching quickly, currently at 4260. Lot of resistance slightly higher up...but the squeeze momentum still remains rather strong. SOURCE: REFINITIV The VVIX carnage VIX of VIX, VVIX, continues printing new recent lows. The recent crash in VVIX is rather remarkable. The gap vs VIX remains huge. Note the fact VVIX has not closed this low since pre the Covid 19 world... SOURCE: REFINITIV Bond volatility moving higher - schhhh Note that bond volatility, MOVE, index moved higher yesterday. So far this is just a bounce as bond volatility has retraced quickly from recent highs, but make sure to watch bond volatility closely as it has been one of the big "ingredients" for the erratic equities market this year. SOURCE: REFINITIV Keeping track of the asymmetry? We touched positive gamma briefly but have reverted back to negative gamma land in both SPY and QQQs. On Monday (here) we outlined the skewed "asymmetry" of this market and wrote: "The aggregate "chase" by short gamma dealers is now ending. This has been an important bid during this squeeze, especially given the fact liquidity has remained poor. Dealers are now becoming sellers of deltas should we move higher, but will need to sell deltas again should we move lower. This "asymmetry" is important..." Note that the short gamma grows to the downside and will act as a destabilizer again. SOURCE: TIER1ALPHA SOURCE: TIER1ALPHA Positioning remains light Equity exposure by systematics and hedge funds continues to trade at rather depressed levels. Imagine these guys started chasing stuff again... SOURCE: BARCLAYS EU Macro: the negatives keep on coming in Morgan Stanley highlights a risk of a further weakening of GDP growth in the euro area given a seaborne oil embargo agreed by the European Council, and a steady rise in agricultural commodity prices. According the analysis conducted by MS economists, a 100% increase in oil prices lowers consumption by 80bps in the following quarter, whereas a similar increase in food prices lowers consumption by 110bps. Such negative shocks also affect investment, as a 100% increase in oil prices lowers total investment by 3.4%Q, with a disproportionate hit to sectors such as autos, real estate and heavy manufacturing. SOURCE: MORGAN STANLEY Never bet against king dollar Well, almost never. On May 27 we suggested that the DXY should be finding short term supports in our post, DXY - first part of the move accomplished. The 50 day and the positive trend line held perfectly. Let's see how this bounce plays out as a lot of new dollar bears are experiencing a painful day... SOURCE: REFINITIV More dollar upside That is basically the take from TS Lombard. Main points are: Short term, growth and rate differentials are edging in favour of EUR > USD Medium term, either US > RoW growth and there is no policy convergence or globally we head towards a recession; the latter implies broad risk-off Both scenarios imply dollar upside SOURCE: TS LOMBARD 20 hours ago at 19:55 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR? Never miss a thing... 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