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ANALYSIS AND NEWS - ANALYSIS


LATIN AMERICA: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OVERVIEW OF PERU

25 Oct 2024
 *  * 
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 * 
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 * Nicholas Fu

Peru stands out as a significant upper middle‑income economy in Latin America,
thanks to its stable macroeconomy and a favourable business environment marked
by an open trade regime. The region's wealth of natural resources has long been
the main driving force behind Peru's economic growth, investments, and trade
activities.

Peru holds a strategic position in Latin America, maintaining robust economic
connections with both mainland China and Hong Kong. The mainland is Peru's
largest trading partner, facilitated by the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) that came
into effect in 2010. Subsequently, the mainland and Peru began FTA upgrading
negotiations in 2018. Negotiations for the current FTA between Hong Kong and
Peru commenced in January 2023. These negotiations were fully concluded in July
2024, with a view to signing the FTA later this year.

HKTDC Research visited Peru in order to gain insights into the region's latest
developments. The team talked with government officials, representatives of
trade and investment associations and industry stakeholders about new business
opportunities between Hong Kong and Peru.

Converging to stability

Peru's economy has rebounded from the pandemic due to robust policy supports,
including the plan Con Punche Peru in 2023, which aimed to strengthen family
economies, boost regions and sectors via investment, and launch new financial
tools for small and medium enterprises [1]. In 2024, growth is anticipated in
the tourism, mining, and private investment sectors. According to the IMF’s
forecast in April 2024, Peru is expected to slightly outperform the Latin
America and the Caribbean region as a whole (2.0%), with a growth of 2.5% in
2024.


GDP GROWTH OF PERU AND LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES

201920202021202220232024(e)2025(f)-15-10-5051015%2.2-10.913.42.7-0.62.52.70.2-7.07.34.22.32.02.5
 * Peru
 * Latin America and the Caribbean countries

2024 (estimate); 2025 (forecast)

Source: IMF




A prudent monetary policy has steered Peru towards a relatively stable economic
path, setting it apart from its neighbouring countries. While other Latin
American economies are still suffering from inflation, hitting 14% across the
region in 2022 and rising to an expected 16.7% in 2024, Peru is projected to
bring its inflation levels within the policy target range of 1%‑ 3%, after a
peak of 7.9% in 2022.


INFLATION OF PERU AND LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES

201920202021202220232024(e)2025(f)05101520%2.11.84.07.96.32.32.07.66.49.814.014.416.77.7
 * Peru
 * Latin America and the Caribbean countries

2024 (estimate); 2025 (forecast)

Source: IMF




Shaping consumption with shopatainment

The economic stability provides a solid foundation for Peruvians’ enthusiasm for
consumption. Like other Latin American countries, Peru is a strongly consumerist
society and shopping is a prominent part of social life.

Even during the pandemic consumption remained resilient, as Peruvians shifted
from physical to online shopping. E‑commerce in Peru is poised to reach US$6.1
million by 2028, growing at a compound annual rate of 7%. Popular online retail
conglomerates such as Mercado Libre, Amazon, Falabella and Ripley cater to
Peruvian consumers seeking lifestyle‑oriented products.

While online retail sales in Peru continue to grow, the resurgence of
brick‑and‑mortar sales post‑pandemic should not be underestimated. Shopping mall
operators are incorporating "shopatainment" into their strategies. Attracting
more international brands, introducing entertainment and wellness zones, and
reconfiguring their store mix are some common practices to enrich the consumer
shopping experience.

Bridging Asia and Latin America

Peru's openness has positioned it as one of the top destinations for foreign
direct investments (FDIs) and a prime trading partner in Latin America. In 2023,
Peru attracted a total of US$ 30 billion FDI stock, with 21% from the UK and 17%
from Spain, followed by Chile (12%) and the US (11%). FDI from mainland China
reached US$1,139 million in 2023, representing a 4% share.

The influx of foreign capital has predominantly been directed towards the mining
sector, with close to one‑fourth of the total investment, followed by finance
(22%) and communications (18%).

Peru’s Inward FDI Stock in 2023


Total (US$ million)

Share (%)

World

30,171.7

-

By Economy (Top 5 Only)

UK

6,339.6

21

Spain

5,227.6

17

Chile

3,623.4

12

US

3,236.6

11

Colombia

1,394.6

5

By Industry (Top 5 Only)

Mining

 6,916.8

23

Finance

 6,623.8

22

Communications

 5,521.4

18

Energy

 3,501.4

12

Industry

 3,442.1

11

Source: ProInversión







Situated along the western coast of South America fronting the Pacific Ocean,
Peru has robust connections with both American and Asian economies. The FTA
between Peru and mainland China entered into force in 2010, marking the
mainland's first comprehensive FTA with a Latin American economy [2]. Since
2014, the mainland China has taken over the US as the largest trading partner
for Peru, with US$16.0 billion (20% of total trade). In 2023, Peru’s total trade
with the mainland China reached US$36.6 bn, accounting for 31% of Peru's trade
activities. The two countries announced in June 2024 that a negotiation on
upgrading their bilateral FTA has been completed [3].

In terms of products, Peru mainly exports its natural resources to the world,
such as ores, minerals and fruits, while imports include machinery, vehicles,
and electrical equipment.

Peru’s Trade in 2023 (Top 5 Markets Only)

Total Value (US$ million)

Share (%)

Exports

Mainland China

23,155.7

36.0%

US

9,180.6

14.3%

Canada

2,987.6

4.6%

India

2,525.7

3.9%

South Korea

2,344.5

3.6%

Imports

Mainland China

13,442.6

25.8%

US

10,986.5

21.1%

Brazil

3,744.7

7.2%

Argentina

2,663.2

5.1%

Mexico

1,769.8

3.4%

Source: ITC Trade Map







Forthcoming HK-Peru FTA

After over a year of negotiations, Peru and Hong Kong concluded the HK-Peru FTA
in 2024. The agreement aims to enhance the economic ties between the two
economies, incorporating new and modernised commitments on market access, rules
of origin, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, trade in services, e‑commerce,
investment, co‑operation, trade facilitation and temporary entry of
businesspeople.

In 2023, the Andean nation ranked fifth among Hong Kong’s trading partners in
Latin America, with a total trade amount of US$671 million. Telecommunications
equipment and parts represented about 75% of Hong Kong’s total exports to Peru,
followed by office machines (3%), while Hong Kong imports fruit and nuts (75%)
and dried, salted or smoked fish (6%) from Peru.

Peru’s Trade with Hong Kong in 2023 (Top 5 Products Only)

Total (US$ million)         

Share (%)

Major Exports

Telecommunications equipment & parts

339

74.6

Office machines

14

3.1

Electro-diagnostic apparatus for medical/ veterinary/ radiological

8

1.9

Computers

8

1.7

Television receivers

6

1.4

Major Imports

Fruit and nuts (not including oil nuts), fresh or dried

162

74.7

Fish, dried, salted or in brine; smoked fish; flours, meals & pellets of fish

13

5.8

Watches and clocks

10

4.5

Feeding stuff for animals (not including unmilled cereals)

9

4

Other articles of apparel, of textile fabrics

5

2.4

Source: Hong Kong Trade Statistics, Census & Statistics Department

The FTA between Hong Kong and Peru carries significant benefits beyond enhancing
trade in goods, as it also acts as a catalyst to boost bilateral service trade
between the two economies. Hong Kong, renowned as a trading platform, can
provide Latin American traders, including those from Peru, with a range of
professional services. These services encompass sourcing, quality control,
marketing, branding, consulting and more. In particular, Latin American firms
are in urgent need of identifying new suppliers in Asia who offer
value‑for‑money products. Hong Kong has extensive international connections and
can position itself as a valuable partner in facilitating these connections for
Peruvian companies. Under the FTA, Hong Kong service providers can enjoy an
expanded market access with more business and investment opportunities.

Boosting capabilities and productivity

Recognising the significant economic influence of Asia on its economy, Peru has
been actively improving its logistics capabilities to bolster trade connections
between Asia and Latin America. A series of public and private projects are
underway, with several expected to be operational by 2025. Key projects include
the expansion of Callao Port which was completed in June 2024, the
Chinese‑backed Chancay Port set to be finished by late 2024 and the Ancón
Industrial Park (AIP). These developments, coupled with Peru's existing
Interoceanic Highway linking to Brazil and the upcoming highway connecting to
Bolivia (Tacna‑La Paz Highway), will help streamline logistics routes between
Latin America countries and Asia.

Callao Port, a state‑owned facility and the second busiest in Latin America,
manages over 80% of container traffic in Peru. In response to escalating demand,
significant investments have been made to expand its infrastructure. After the
development completed in mid‑2024, Callao Port can now handle 2.7 million TEUs
per year with a container yard space of 40 hectares. Smart equipment is also
integrated in order to enhance operational efficiency in a more sustainable way.

Peru's well‑connected logistics system underscores the country's strategic
significance in bridging Latin America and Asia.

Peru’s strategic location in the giant Latin American market has already
attracted the attention of Chinese logistics firms. While mainland China
currently is not one of the major FDI sources for Peru, Chinese investments in
the country surged at a compound annual growth rate of 32% between 2018 and
2023, rising from US$289 million (1% share) to US$1,139 million (4%). The
Chancay Port is one of the key projects, which is scheduled to begin operation
in late 2024, further solidifying Peru's economic ties with Asia.

The Chancay Port in Peru is a joint venture between the Chinese state‑owned
enterprise, COSCO Shipping, and a local Peruvian mining company, Volcan Compañía
Minera. Deploying cutting‑edge digital technologies and able to accommodate
18,000‑TEU vessels, the new port is expected to supplement the saturated Callao
Port as well as to bridge Asia and Latin America with a shorter transportation
time of merely 23 days.

In addition to expanding its logistics capacity, Peru is buttressing its
productivity by establishing the Ancón Industrial Park (AIP). Connected to
Peruvian highway system and located midway between Callao Port and Chancay Port
within one hour’s driving time of either, Ancón offers an ideal location for an
industrial park to strengthen Peru’s industrial competitiveness.

Ancón Industrial Park and the two major ports ‑ Callao Port and Chancay Port,
will be consolidated into a regional logistic hub.

The AIP is expected to serve as a free trade zone, providing areas for
processing and value‑added manufacturing activities. It is intended to foster
and consolidate production and commercial activities in Peru. Looking forward, a
railway system is also planned to connect Ancón with other locations including
Chancay Port, facilitating the movement of goods and materials between
industrial hubs and port facilities.

Looking forward

The enthusiastic consumerism of Peruvians, strengthened economic ties with Asia,
upgraded facilities and brand‑new infrastructure are helping Peru become one of
the most important markets in Latin America. The Andean nation is likely to
attract business investment to take advantage of its improved trading
capability. Above all, under the new FTA between Hong Kong and Peru,
opportunities will arise in many sectors where Hong Kong businesses can enjoy
improved market access to tap into the Latin American region.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[1] ProInversión

[2] Ministry of Commerce, The People’s Republic of China

[3] The State Council, The People’s Republic of China



RELATED TOPICS

PeruCentral & South AmericaCONSUMER MARKETECONOMIC GROWTHFDIGLOBAL TRADEFREE
TRADE AGREEMENT


In focus: GBA (2022 data)


Population: 86.62 mn
GDP: US$1,943.54 bn
GDP per capita: US$22,585
Exports: US$1,341.41 bn

Detail

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