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... ( IPCC ) THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE ,
SCIENCE , AND TRANSPORTATION UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED SEVENTH CONGRESS
FIRST SESSION MAY 1 , 2001 Printed for the use of the Committee on Commerce ...
Стр.
... written questions submitted by Hon . John McCain 77 Response by Dr. Richard
S. Lindzen to written questions submitted by : Hon . John McCain 84 Hon . John
Kerry 85 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE ( IPCC ) THIRD ASSESSMENT (
III )
Стр. 3
... IPCC , does not , indeed , should not , extinguish the mandate of the
National Academy to ad- vise our government on scientific and technical matters
. Let me be clear , Mr. Chairman , that I am not here today to im- pugn the work
of ...
Стр. 5
... IPCC , have released thousands of pages of their work for the IPCC's
assessment . The summaries of those reports are written not by the scientists ,
Mr. Chairman , but by U.N. environmental activists . There is a reason the
organization ...
Стр. 9
... IPCC report . Cop- ies of the summary for policymakers and technical summary
have been distributed , as has been the verbal testimony with its appen- dix .
Just a brief word about the assessment . The assessment took al- most 3 years
in ...
Стр. 10
... IPCC resorts to model simulations . Based on analysis of both the observed
record and climate model simulations using the var- ious forcing agents , it is
seen that there is now new and stronger evidence that most of the observed ...
Стр. 11
... IPCC report . This climate science as- sessment is the considered viewpoint
of hundreds of scientists worldwide ... ( IPCC ) assessment [ " Climate Change
2001 : The Scientific Basis " ] . The IPCC was set up by the World ...
Стр. 12
... IPCC Working Group I Summary for Policymakers , page 6 ] . The pre- dominant
cause of this increase in carbon dioxide is the combustion of fossil fuels and
the burning of forests . Further , methane abundance has doubled over the In ...
Стр. 13
... IPCC Working Group I Summary for Policymakers , 2001 ; page 11 ] . Further ,
model simulations indicate that the warming over the past century is very
unlikely to be due to internal variability alone , i.e. , variations within the
cli ...
Стр. 19
... IPCC is so important . Some nations have sponsored and will continue to
sponsor studies that may show , quite correctly , that recent data for their
localities do not show evidence of change . The IPCC focus is on broad patterns
and ...
Стр. 20
... have some questions about the methods and procedures of the IPCC . I refer
here specifically to the last portion of my submitted testimony , in which I
discussed the actual preparation of the Summary for Policymakers and , with all
due 20.
Стр. 21
... IPCC Working Group 2 , or its results , as you wish . Thank you . [ The
prepared statement of Dr. McCarthy follows : ] PREPARED STATEMENT OF JAMES J.
MCCARTHY , DIRECTOR , MUSEUM OF COMPARATIVE ZOOLOGY , HARVARD UNIVERSITY Thank
you ...
Стр. 22
... IPCC report include : • changes in potential crop yields , especially
reductions in most tropical and sub- tropical regions . • changes in water
availability , especially losses in the sub - tropics . • an increase in the
number of ...
Стр. 23
... IPCC assessment : • responses to climate change are already occurring in
natural and human sys- tems . • it is highly likely that climate changes in the
21st century will be 2-10 faster than those of the 19th century . •
increased ...
Стр. 24
... ipcc . The Summary for Policymakers . -Climate Change 2001 : Impacts ,
Adaptation , and Vulnerability is being maintained in Committee files . The
CHAIRMAN . Thank you , Dr. McCarthy . Dr. Lindzen . STATEMENT OF DR . RICHARD S.
LINDZEN ...
Стр. 25
... IPCC , and we have heard from two people who participated very heavily in it
, much more than I did , but there are a number of things with the IPCC that you
should keep in mind . First of all , even the summary , which does 25.
Стр. 26
... IPCC was created in essence to support the negotiations , and without the
negotiations , without the alarm , there would be no IPCC . It is not unusual
that an organization has its own interests . The question I would like to go to
and ...
Стр. 27
... IPCC ( the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- mate Change ) .
The questions I wish to address are the following : What can we agree on and
what are the implications of this agreement ? What are the critical areas of ...
Стр. 28
... IPCC documents nor even the summaries claim any such agreement . Those who
insist that the science is settled should be required to state exactly what
science they feel is settled . In all likelihood , it will turn out to be
something ...
Стр. 29
... IPCC estimates of warm- ing trends for the past twenty years were almost
immediately acknowledged to be wrong - so too were claims for arctic ice
thinning ) , the failure of models to simulate observations makes it even less
likely that ...
Стр. 30
... IPCC , in response to the fact that the Policymakers Summary was not
prepared by participating scientists , claimed that the draft of the Summary was
prepared by a ( selected ) subset of the 14 coordinating lead authors . However
, the ...
Стр. 31
... IPCC , which is to say that the IPCC represents an interest in its own right
. Of course , this hardly distinguishes the IPCC from other organizations . The
question of where do we go from here is an obvious and important one . From
my ...
Стр. 32
... IPCC report concludes is that in this case as well , the technological
options that we need in order to stabilize climate at levels of 450 parts per
million , for instance , which is about 20 percent over the levels in the year
2000 ...
Стр. 33
... IPCC to review . The second point about the IPCC is that we are providing
infor- mation to negotiators , but we also are providing summarized infor-
mation to all concerned . It is not just to the government , the nego- tiators .
It ...
Стр. 34
... IPCC Post - SRES scenarios show that annual GHG emissions per capita from
industri- alized countries decline to levels below those of developing countries
by 2050 . 11. IPCC emissions scenarios indicate a severe depletion of ...
Стр. 35
... IPCC emissions scenarios indicate that conventional oil and gas resources
will be mostly used up by mid - century irrespective of actions to address
climate change ( Fig- ure 3 ) . This will necessitate a different pattern of
energy ...
Стр. 36
... IPCC Post - SRES scenarios show that annual GHG emissions per capita from
industrialized countries decline to levels below those of developing countries
by 2050 . Figure 1 : Penetration of Environmentally Sound Technologies (
including 36.
Стр. 41
... IPCC definitional scenario . Information is not available for other
definitional scenarios . Potential refers to the estimated range of accounted
average stock change 2008-2012 ( Mt C / yr1 ) . G Source : Table 4 , SPM ,
SRLULUCF ...
Стр. 44
... ( IPCC ) , which have received the greatest attention among the plethora of
IPCC scenarios . However , I emphasize that our paper is not a criticism of IPCC
. The IPCC reports ( 2 ) , produced by hundreds of outstanding sci- entists ...
Стр. 49
... IPCC business - as - usual scenarios . Achievement of this scenario requires
halting the growth of non - CO2 climate forcings and slightly declining CO2
emissions . Climate change is a long - term issue and strategies surely must
be ...
Стр. 55
... 2050. IS92a scenarios of IPCC ( 2 ) for CO2 , CH4 and N2O are illustrated
for comparison . The sum of CFC and " other trace gas " forcings is constant
after 2000 in the alternative scenario . Carbon ( 10 Tons ) Carbon ( 100 Tons )
55.
Стр. 58
... IPCC report . Dr. Lindzen said that hundreds of scientists were never asked
, that the report was changed in Shanghai , and that significant pressure was
exerted . I would like to hear the other four witnesses ' response to those
rather ...
Стр. 60
... IPCC is car- rying out a very necessary process , and the technical work is
su- perb . It involves a large number of outstanding scientists , and I am in no
way critical of those scientists , but I must say I have a sig- nificant
degree ...
Стр. 64
... IPCC report on for- estry that looked at many of the questions related to
project - spe- cific soil conservation . I think at the outset I should say yes
, it is a great idea , and that it is worth pursuing . Certainly land exchange
and ...
Стр. 69
... IPCC . The Panel was created in 1988 to serve as an independent advisor to
world lead- ers in assessing the scientific , technical and socio - economic
information relevant for the understanding of the risk of human - induced
climate ...
Стр. 70
... IPCC 2001 assessment . Partly because of the na- ture of the follow - up
questions , I find that I have to go beyond the scope of the IPCC report , and
include personal views in response to some of the questions . Answer . On the
first ...
Стр. 71
... IPCC re- ports , are any less relevant in originality and substance than
contributions from Eu- rope , including ... IPCC 1996 climate change science
assessment employed the IS92 suite of scenarios ( 6 in all ) , with the middle
of ...
Стр. 72
... IPCC . There were about 40 scenarios used in IPCC 2001 , with 4 main groups
or families , and with 6 " marker " scenarios . As an example , the IS92a
scenario projec- tion for carbon dioxide concentrations in this century is
roughly ...
Стр. 74
... IPCC 2001 ' s statements on future re- search needs . These are an
appropriate recognition of the needs in the present times , based on
considerations stemming from the current assessment of climate change science .
Note that IPCC ...
Стр. 77
... IPCC business as usual scenario assume that air pollution is stable ? Answer
. No , They have ozone and methane increasing substantially . In addition , they
grossly underestimate the climate forcing by black carbon , and thus their
sce ...
Стр. 78
... IPCC ( 1996 ) . My present estimate for global climate forcings caused by BC
is : ( 1 ) 0.4 ± 0.2 W / m2 direct effect , ( 2 ) 03 ± 015 W / m2 semi - direct
effect ( reduction of low - level clouds due to BC heating ; Hansen et al ...
Стр. 79
... IPCC ( 2001 ) scenarios have a growth rate in the 1990s that is almost
double the observed rate of 0.8 % / year ( linear trend fit to 5 - year run-
ning mean ) , but it is consistent with their failure to emphasize data . I will
not ...
Стр. 84
... IPCC process , you have stated the vast majority of the partici- pants
played no role in preparing the summary , were not asked for agreement . Can you
elaborate on this statement ? Answer . The IPCC directorate chooses the
coordinating ...
Стр. 85
... IPCC reports corrected , and that the potential problems be explained . When
, the writeup failed to include the traditional bromides of the first and second
assessments , the coordinating lead author , Thomas Stocker of Switzerland ...
Стр. 86
... IPCC range is based on the range of results produced by current models plus
uncertainties in emissions scenarios with the highest value based on a scenario
which inore than doubles CO2 . In recent pa- pers ( including one in preparation
) ...
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) THIRD ASSESSMENT ..., ТОМ 4

Авторы: United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and
Transportation
 

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